For the 16th episode of the Progress Pondcast, Brendan and I discuss some of the many travails that have kept us both from podcasting over the last month and a half, but then we get down to business. There’s a kind of big election coming up and one of the candidates pretty clearly seems to be coming unglued. Yet, the polls say he has the momentum. How can this be?
I talk about how most pollsters are adding pixie dust to deliberately juice Trump’s numbers three or four percent, and whether or not this might actually result in a more accurate prediction than doing polls in the traditional way.
I also give a warning on thinking a high turnout election will, as has traditionally been the case, help the Democrats this time around. There are reasons to think high voter engagement and early voting are not good signs for Harris, although the opposite could also be true. Brendan and I walk through my analysis of the situation.
And what about signs? Barack Obama always reminded us that “Signs don’t vote,” but do they help create a permission structure and bandwagon effect?
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