I’ve been laid up for days with a kidney stone which I finally managed to pass this morning. I knew it was something I never wanted to experience, but it was worse than I anticipated. I was relieved to find out after a CAT scan what specifically was wrong with me because at least I knew I wasn’t dying in the immediate future. But there was no question of actually writing anything after the symptoms set in on Wednesday. So, I missed a lot of issues that have come up this week, including most obviously the imposition of Trump’s tariffs and the resulting destruction of over five trillion dollars as the stock markets crashed.
On Saturday, I was still in too much pain and too exhausted to participate in the Hands Off protests, but CabinGirl went and send me pictures so I could experience them vicariously. Millions participated in over 1,400 locations, including some abroad, all to speak out against America’s new fascist regime. I’m sure many valuable and lasting relationships were formed, and that will have a multiplier effect going forward.
Another important thing that happened was that the U.S. Senate went ahead and did something I wrote was under consideration on Day 40 of the fascist regime’s reign. They decided to pretend that extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts won’t cost a single dime, the mere suggestion of which I called “the most staggering cynicism and hypocrisy that I’ve yet encountered in politics.” This was spearheaded by Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who serves as the chairman of the Senate Committee on the Budget. It was part of their budget reconciliation bill that passed early Saturday morning on a narrow 51-48 vote, with Republicans Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul opposed.
Non-partisan analysts say the measure, if enacted, would add about $5.7 trillion to the federal government’s debt over the next decade. Senate Republicans contend the cost is $1.5 trillion, saying that the effects of extending existing tax policy that was scheduled to expire at the end of this year should not be counted in the measure’s cost.
When I wrote about this as a mere proposal, I explained it as like “saying you had planned to cancel your Netflix subscription to save money but that you changed your mind and since you aren’t actually changing your subscription status Netflix will henceforth by free.” The tax cuts were supposed to sunset. Under their new plan, they won’t sunset. That means we have to keep paying the costs in the form of lost revenue. Pretending otherwise is a complete violation of both the letter and the spirit of the reconciliation rules, as well as a total abandonment of even the pretense of caring about debts and deficits.
If the Republicans pull this gambit off, it will basically end the filibuster as an effective way for the minority to control spending or slow most legislation, and as the New York Times explains, this is why Murkowski wouldn’t go along with it. Concern about debt and deficits still exists in the Republican Party, too, even if it’s mainly being expressed in the House:
House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) on Saturday blasted the Senate’s budget resolution, passed by the upper chamber only hours before, as “unserious and disappointing.”
Arrington criticized the budget plan for “creating $5.8 trillion in new costs and a mere $4 billion in enforceable cuts” or “less than one day’s worth of borrowing by the federal government.”
In order for Trump’s legislative agenda to proceed through the budget reconciliation process, the House and Senate have to at some point pass identical bills to set things in motion. The fact that Sen. Graham had to resort to such naked dishonesty to get a Senate version passed is a sign of how difficult that task is to accomplish. In all likelihood, the Senate parliamentarian would rule that Graham is breaking the rules, which is why the Republicans suddenly began arguing that she doesn’t have jurisdiction to the tell the Budget Committee chairman how to score his own bills.
This is a stronger move than I expected. The more obvious plan would have been to simply have J.D. Vance, as president of the Senate, overrule any adverse ruling from the parliamentarian. Saying she has no say in the matter cuts her off earlier in the process but allows them to argue they haven’t overruled her.
The distinction is relevant because on Friday she ruled that a waiver granted to California by the Biden administration “is not subject to the Congressional Review Act, which permits lawmakers to reverse recently-adopted regulations with a simple majority vote.” The waiver allows California to have stricter vehicle emission standards than the federal government so that the state can ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035. Of course, Vance could overrule her on this, but the Senate won’t simply ignore her.
In any case, things ratcheted up several notches while I was passing my kidney stone. The fallout from the tariffs has Republican officeholders spooked and a coming recession will indicate more government spending rather than less. This doesn’t fit with their legislative agenda in any way, and the outbreak of widespread passionate street protest is a sign that the honeymoon is over. Bad results in special and judicial elections are another sign than the GOP is treading on dangerous political turf. The budget reconciliation process is limping forward, but it’s beginning to look like it might falter, with catastrophic consequences for GOP unity and Trump’s agenda. And don’t forget about the debt ceiling, because if the GOP can’t get that done, it will really look like they’ve destroyed everything in only a few short months.
Nothing will improve until the fascist regime is defeated, but it is starting to look confused and weak.
I hope you’re feeling better now. We need you at your critical best for the months ahead. This last week certainly has been interesting. The fault lines are emerging. Write will see whether they can be papered over or whether we can pry them open. Market turmoil and inflation this month from tariffs could signal a turning point. One can hope.
Sorry for your troubles, and glad you’re feeling better.
Two thoughts slowly crystallized in my mind while reflecting on recent events:
1) We as a people are woefully out of practice in how to fight a fascist regime.
2) That doesn’t mean we aren’t learning, or that we can’t learn. Sen Booker’s speech (and the response by rank-and-file pro-democracy advocates) and the turnout at yesterday’s rallies are two concrete and important signs that we are, in fact, learning.
This will be a long struggle, both because we have much to learn and because the opposition is learning as well. But it is a winnable struggle.