According to Congressional Quarterly’s online service, CQPolitics.com, Democratic nominee Tim Mahoney now has the edge in the race to replace Mr. “I did not have sex with any minor children (and I’m a victim, too)“ Foley (as reported by the NY Times):
What until last Friday appeared a safely Republican seat in Florida’s 16th District is now anything but, in the wake of the resignation of six-term Republican Rep. Mark Foley — and the ballooning scandal surrounding inappropriate e-mails and instant messages he sent to teenage male congressional pages, and the Republican leadership’s handling of the situation.
CQPolitics.com, which on Friday changed its rating on the Florida 16 race to No Clear Favorite from Safe Republican, now rates the race as Leans Democratic.
(cont.)
My personal view is that L’affaire Foley is a distraction. I may be grossly off base on this, but I think that this entire episode of GOP hypocrisy and sexcapades will likely prove to be a wash come Election Day, but if the Democrats pick up Foley’s seat, that would at least prove to be a (pardon the pun) moral victory, even if they don’t reclaim the House. But there’s a long way to go before November 7th, ladies and gentlemen. Far too long.
With that in mind, here’s an article from the LA Times about the Republican who will replace Foley in this race, already being touted by the GOP spinmeisters as the “Anti-Foley:”
He’s the GOP’s Anti-Foley
… Negron seemed eager to discuss Foley. After he finished his jury service shortly after noon, Negron — a parent and former congressional intern — said that he was offended by Foley’s behavior.
“But Mark Foley should be responsible for his disgusting failures, not me,” he said. “Democrats are acting like Mahoney should be coronated because Mark Foley did disgusting things. But Republicans are not going to go into the fetal position because of Mark Foley’s disgusting behavior.”
In other words, it ain’t over until the last Diebold machine sings.
The trend, according to new Zogby poll, has Dems leading in 11 of 15 ‘crucial’ Rethug seats. So if Diebold does not ‘sing’ the right tune, let’s not have anymore sham elections.
I love visiting the Electoral Vote Site daily. He updates every day with new Senate/House polls. Today his results show:
Senate – 49 Dems, 50 Reps, and 1 tie
House – 217 Dems, 217 Reps, and 1 tie
If these are on target, you throw in a little Diebold tampering, a little vote suppression – and we DO have a long way to go!!
According to his lawyer, Foley will be holding a press conference when he gets out of rehab, which will be the week before the election. I’m sure he will try to spin this positively for the party, but it will give the media a chance to rehash the whole scandal and leave it fresh in voters’ minds right before they cast their ballots. The Republican base believe themselves to be upholders of family values, this should at a minimum lower turnout.
Of course, October will be a gay-bashing month like we haven’t seen in my lifetime, so that may change the dynamics. I’m guessing they expect the slimy politics to muddy the waters just enough that Diebold can steal a multitude of seats. In a clean election, I see Democrats picking up 40-50 seats. This scandal puts safe seats like Hastert and Boehner into play, it is a big deal.
I understand why you think it’s a distraction from even more important stories like torture and Woodward’s book. In fact, I agree with you in theory. On the other hand, the media is extensively covering the Foley scandal (at least in part because it does resonate with viewers/readers). Do you really think they were going to cover important issues any more thoroughly if Foley hadn’t come up? Their actions during the past six years suggest no. They were going to get distracted by something, at least this is damaging to Republicans in general (and fatal to Hastert, Reynolds, etc).