The Democrats’ chances at the House are very real right now. Republicans are hobbled by the fact that they have so many shaky seats to defend and so few that they can legitimately target. If they are to tighten the gap — and a USA Today poll released Tuesday indicates that they may now be doing so on the generic ballot — they must give voters a reason to come to the polls for them. They will probably lose any election that merely pits them as the status quo against Democrats who could be even worse — who could, for example, impeach President Bush. Republicans must also offer something positive to voters, but their lack of legislative accomplishments in this Congress makes it difficult.
The big X-factor is the Republicans’ vaunted micro-targeting turnout program, which is light-years ahead of anything the almost non-existent Democratic National Committee will be able to put together this year. The GOP turnout program produced a minor miracle in 2004, as new Republican voters showed up in droves. How many of those new voters will show up again this year? Republicans are honing the 2004 model and will experiment with new methods, as they typically do in off-year elections. Given the historically low turnout in mid-terms, how much this could soften the blow of 2006 is unknown.
I received this email today from MoveOn.org and they are now embracing micro-targeting as well:
The techniques we’re hoping to use to boost our impact—”microtargeting” and “banking” votes—aren’t something we can do half way. So we’re only going to accept these donations if people pledge the remaining $72,060. Think of it this way—every dollar contributed today to put us over the top will unleash almost $5 in money that’s already been pledged.
We don’t have the high-dollar corporate donors Republicans rely on to afford these voter turnout techniques. But we are 3 million people strong, and we’re ready for a change.
(snip)
Microtargeting:
Republicans use “microtargeting” to find and communicate with all their supporters.
Without microtargeting, most campaigns simply target voters in supportive neighborhoods, and those who live elsewhere get skipped.
Microtargeting uses sophisticated statistics to find supporters wherever they live.
Microtargeting can more than double the number of voters you talk to!
Do you think micro-targeting is as hot as these two opposing strategists do?