While Fox is being non-transparent in how it will select the top ten candidates for the first debate, the RCP averages for the past month are a good enough guide. So, we’ll see Trump, Walker, Bush, Rubio, Huckabee, Carson, Paul, Cruz, Kasich, and Christie. They were all in debate prep last weekend, unless one believes that Trump plans to wing it.
Any guesses on the strategy of each of the contestants?
How many are praying to big guy in the sky that told them to run for the Presidency to smite some of his (no her because Firorina isn’t going to make the cut) opponents?
My guess is that most of them will try to look Presidential and repeat bland talking points to give others room to double-fault. Expect to see Walker, Rubio, and Carson stick to this mode. Rubio is particularly flat on his feet; so, he won’t be impressing anyone in this debate.
Those that aggressively try to ace a question or go after another competitor (if that is allowed) can potentially score big or lose big. Christie has little to lose and a big mouth; so, expect him to come out swinging. Cruz has a bit more to lose, but he’s always in audacious fight mode. So, he and Christie are going to have to jockey for airtime.
Huck is going to have trouble getting anywhere close to looking Presidential. But he might manage not to say the stupidiest, most insulting, or most insane thing of the evening.
Paul will get testy at some point. (Like daddy?)
Bush will attempt to adopt the Romney style of staying above the fray. But the fray this time is larger, and unlike Romney he wasn’t in actual debates four years earlier and been prepping ever since then for this one. Even odds if he shows irritation, says something stupid, or is so low energy that he melts into the backdrop curtains. (Like daddy?)
Better than even odds (there’s a reason I don’t gamble) that Trump and Kasich find the Goldilocks zone in this debate. Not too hot and not too cold. Doesn’t mean that either or both of them can’t be tripped up. Only that so far they appear to be more comfortable in their own skin than the others with the exception of Carson, who expects the debate to be easier than neurosurgery.
If history is any guide, good odds that they all get out of this one alive. But at least two will see their poll ratings decline during the next few weeks. Could be enough that they won’t make the cut for the next debate and leave an opening for the Perfessor, Cruella, or Jingle-bell.>
Your turn. Projecting is much more difficult than Monday Morning quarterbacking.
