Whether the media likes it or not, the real contest is taking place on the ground in Indiana and North Carolina. The polls are fluctuating all around, some showing Obama far ahead in North Carolina and leading narrowly in Indiana, and some showing him losing Indiana and much of his lead in the Tarheel State. Sometimes it pays to step away from the stupid on your teevee and look at the facts on the ground. Let’s look at Indiana. CQ Politics does a full district by district rundown, and it looks like a catastrophe for the Clinton campaign. Why?
There are four Democratic delegates assigned to the Republican-leaning 3rd, 4th and 5th districts and six delegates in each of five districts that are more friendly to Democrats — the 1st, 2nd, 7th, 8th and 9th. The 6th District has five delegates.
It’s notable that eight of the nine districts have an even number of delegates. Because of this, a wide range of vote percentages for the candidates will yield delegate ties of 2-2 or 3-3. In the four-delegate districts, Clinton or Obama would need 62.5 percent of the vote to garner a 3-1 delegate split; anything lower than that would yield a 2-2 tie. In a six-delegate district, the winner would need 58.3 percent of the vote to turn a 3-3 tie into a 4-2 edge.
CQ Politics predicts that Clinton will win seven out of the nine districts and gain a 24-23 delegate advantage. Her problem is that only one of the seven districts she is predicted to win has an odd number of delegates (the 6th). CQ Politics predicts that Clinton will win the 5th District (Indianapolis suburbs) 3-1. But they predict that Obama will win the 7th District (Indianapolis) 4-2. All other districts they predict will provide an even split of delegates. This prediction is not much tied to the actual winner of the popular vote.
Clinton might pick up an extra delegate in the 8th District (Evansville), but it’s also possible that Obama will pick up an extra delegate in the 1st District (Gary, Hammond). Demographically, Clinton should win an extra delegate in the 8th District that hugs the Kentucky border, but the district also includes Bloomington, home of the University of Indiana. Clinton faces a similar obstacle in the 4th District (Purdue University) and the 6th District (Ball State University). It’s not that she won’t win these districts, it’s just that she is unlikely to win by margins big enough to earn her a delegate.
The bottom line is that neither candidate is likely to get much of a delegate advantage out of Indiana.
Meanwhile, a look at Scott in NJ’s district by district analysis of North Carolina reveals that Obama is on course to win a 42-35 delegate victory. That could shrink or expand, but not by much. In the core area of district battles, Obama looks poised to come out ahead in Indiana and North Carolina with a 65-59 advantage. If things go very badly, Clinton might sneak out a victory of two delegates, or so. The Math is still The Math.
