I believe that Congress will pass the Wall Street Reform bill, possibly with a lot of Republican support. That will represent two giant wins for the Obama administration in a row. But I don’t know if they can keep it going. The climate bill is definitely a stab at getting a vote or two from the Republicans by giving every industry group some goodies as compensation for increased regulation. But even this watered down piece of crap bill is likely to face unified opposition from the GOP. The Chamber of Commerce is withholding their endorsement, and the Republicans probably feel like they can’t afford to let Obama reel off health care>Wall Street reform>energy rerform>Elena Kagan all in a row. People might get the idea that the government works and the president is effective, and they can’t have that. I think we’ll get nowhere on climate change and won’t even be able to bring it up for debate. Now, I was hoping that Harry Reid would force some votes on Obama’s nominees by threatening to take the August recess away. But maybe he needs to use that threat to get debate started on the climate bill. What do you think?
On another topic, Durbin announced what I already knew, which is that immigration reform isn’t coming up this year. I don’t know why Reid jerked the Latino community around by suggesting otherwise. It was stupid. The time to take up immigration will be next summer, with the goal of passing it in the fall, just as the Republicans are beginning their first debates for the presidential nomination. The candidates will outdo each other in offending Latinos and render themselves completely unelectable in the general. If the Republicans are going to prevent us from passing a humane immigration bill, they must be made to pay the maximum political price for it, and that includes getting absolutely crushed in the 2012 elections.
I think Obama campaigned on health care, energy and education as his three domestic priorities for building a “new foundation” for the US economy. So, to the extent it’s up to Obama, I think you’re right Booman, Reid’s threats will be used on the climate bill.
And does repealing “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” still get done in the budget after the November elections?
I hope Reid has something (climate bill, nominees, immigration, budget) to hold over the Senate’s collective head for every recess they have scheduled from now until January.
This can be a way to feed into the “Democrats want to make government work, and work for you, while Republicans don’t care about government working or about you working” theme—particularly if there’s a string of Democratic accomplishments and continued decent job growth numbers each month.
I don’t know why Reid jerked the Latino community around by suggesting otherwise. It was stupid.
Yes, and he’s very lucky his Republican opponent made a complete ass of herself or else he’d really be toast this fall. That said, they better take it up next year as you say.
The climate bill supersedes EPA regulation of carbon. That is a big problem with environmental groups. And it will take 60 votes to strip it out if it reaches the floor. Except as elephant bait, the climate bill is DOA.
Maintaining the EPA’s authority to regulate carbon as a pollutant should be a non-negotiable position for Democrats. Sad that it isn’t.
Regulation and appropriations for alternative energy use in federal facilities are the tools that we have at the moment. Congressional Democrats should not bargain those away to give Wall Street cap and trade derivatives to create a bubble in the market.
Cap and trade and carbon tax were market-oriented solutions designed to deal with a climate hostile toward further regulation of pollutants. Business does not support those market solutions except as they are boondoggles. Time to go back to fundamentals.
My sense is that with Arizona pushing the envelope a comprehensive immigration bill will be put forward in late July and not acted on (if at all) until after the elections. And no doubt it or changes it to it will be around for the 2012 cycle.
DADT repeal will be in the appropriations bill if Levin can get the 15 votes in committee to put it in. The usual Democratic suspects are the ones on the fence. Key would be to get Webb to endorse it.
Well, if I were Harry Reid, I’d simply take the August recess away, not just threaten it. I’d just reverse the default position, and say unless and until things change the gavel will not come down. Publicly announce that as of right now there will be no August recess and “the Senate will work through their massive voting backlog caused by Republican obstructionism etc…”
The Republicans won’t respond to non-credible threats. Therefore, one must follow through on at least one threat to make it and other threats more credible. This goes double for somebody as ineffective as Harry Reid.
One thing I’m sure of, I want Reid to put on the top of the priority list the confirmation of the President’s nominees. Especially federal judges, U.S. attorneys, U.S. Marshals. I don’t know what trick he can pull out of his hat, but it’s urgent. Because it surely won’t be easier after November.
Let’s see if Reid would actually take the August break away. No way, in my opinion but it would impress me
I’d be just as happy if they put off the climate bill until later. It sounds like a grab bag of compromise without a central vision. The whole cap/tax idea still has too many question marks. Given the oil spill, this might have been the time for an all-out national push to end the oil economy ASAP, but this bill ain’t it, from all reports. It’s not going to galvanize the nation in a common goal, which it will take to make significant headway on climate change/environmental rescue.
The problem is that unlike healthcare reform, a climate bill can’t be improved incrementally. Once cap&trade is in place it becomes the de facto solution — there is no real measure of success, so there won’t be any momentum to quit it and try something else. I think the Dems would be better off pushing for much more funding for alternative energy r&d, keeping carbon regulation in the EPA, and tackling a shift in transportation infrastructure. That would be popular, demonstrate a commitment to change, help with jobs, and be open ended enough to permit further thinking and discussion of the carbon tax/cap & trade approach to regulation.
It’s pretty obvious that Reid did it to save his election THIS year. He can try, and blame republicans. That said I don’t know if he can win. Barter-Girl McChicken is a piss-poor alternative but we’ve already seen Americans prefer some with an R to their name this year that’s equally as moronic.