While Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz were fantasizing about solving all of Israel’s problems by taking down every Arab and Persian leader, one by one, and installing some kind of pro-American, pro-Israel series of democratic republics in their place, something inconvenient happened. Israel discovered that it could not militarily dislodge Hizbollah from southern Lebanon, nor defeat Hamas in Gaza, and that it cannot protect itself against rocket attacks. And those rockets are only going to improve in range, payload, and accuracy. Right now, they only threaten some villages in the north and Sderot in the south, but the security threat will increase over time.
With both Hamas and Hezbollah gaining strength on Israel’s borders and developing rockets with longer ranges, Sderot, its advocates say, is a bitter sample of what more prosperous and distant parts of Israel may face if the threat here is ignored. And to a growing number across the political spectrum, it has inspired a collective rescue operation.
Israel faces more than a demographic time-bomb. They face a technological time-bomb as well. It isn’t necessarily a risk of a nuclear bomb going off in Tel Aviv that should be of foremost concern to the IDF. It’s reaching a point where Israel can be harassed out of existence by constant, lethal rocket attack, or by other similar means.
Anyone who is seriously thinking about a peace plan that will secure Israel’s place in the region, must take into account that Israel’s leverage grows weaker by the day. They are not as strong as they were three years ago, and they’re much weaker than they were eight years ago. If Israel’s advantage erodes beyond a certain point, there will be no peace at all, because the Arabs will know victory is possible again.
I think it is possible for Israel to get a deal, now, that will provide them security. But I don’t think that window will stay open for too much longer. These rocket attacks are a perfect example of why Israel doesn’t have any time to waste. They can’t stop the attacks, and they’ll never have a future free from these attacks unless they make a deal.
Even then, they may be harassed out of the region, but they’ll be in a much better position, morally and internationally, to defend themselves after an agreement is reached.
