People often compare Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker to former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Geographical proximity probably explains most of this, but the two men are both notoriously lacking in charisma. They look good as presidential candidates on paper, but that doesn’t mean that they have the political touch to connect with voters. Obviously, Pawlenty’s presidential campaign completely flopped, so one can be forgiven for wondering if the same fate awaits Governor Walker.

I suppose it’s possible, but no matter how hard the establishment media try to fluff Jeb Bush, there seems to be an enormous appetite among the Republican base for someone else.

In one sense, this seems to happen every time. Poppy Bush had to put up with Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot. The base never got enthusiastic about Bob Dole. By 2008, the base was positively hostile to John McCain whose campaign experienced a near death before rebounding. And pretty much every alternative to Mitt Romney was given a brief road test before all were found wanting. When Rick Santorum was still cleaning Romney’s clock in some states late in the game, that was all you needed to know about the base’s true feelings about Mitt.

Perhaps this pattern will repeat itself and Jeb will eventually emerge as the nominee. I’ve certainly felt like this was the most likely outcome for almost eight years now. I have never been able to imagine any Republican nominee other than Jeb, simply because no else has the chops.

But I’m not convinced that Scott Walker can’t pull it off for the simple reason that a two-term governor of a Blue State is a whole lot more plausible as presidential candidate than a disgraced former Speaker of the House (Newt Gingrich) or a backbench member of the House (Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann) or an unpopular former senator (Rick Santorum) or a clueless red state governor (Rick Perry) or a businessman with no political experience and a record of serial sexual harassment (Herman Cain).

There was another candidate in 2012, and that was former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. He, more than any other candidate, most closely resembled Jeb Bush. It’s true that he came from a red state, but he was pitching himself as a moderate who was opposed to the emerging Tea Party flavor of the GOP. He was good looking, had a nice family, all the credentials you could want, including serving as ambassador to China (like Poppy Bush) during the Obama administration. But the base wanted no part of Huntsman and the establishment was happy enough with Romney. Huntsman’s campaign went nowhere.

Jeb isn’t going to go out like Huntsman, but they’re similar enough to make me wonder if Jeb can really beat someone like Walker if the two are matched up one-on-one.

Despite all their spittle, Republican primary voters have historically placed a very high premium on perceived electability. Every time the Republicans lose (Dole, McCain, Romney), the base complains that it turned out that the “electable” candidate wasn’t so electable after all. But that doesn’t change the historical pattern. If Jeb can convince people that he’s got a shot at beating Hillary and that Walker simply doesn’t, he may be able to win. But if the polls don’t back him on that or show him with any particular advantage, then Bush’s best hope is that there are multiple candidates running strong enough to divide up the opposition to his campaign.

If Mike Huckabee, for example, were to win throughout the South, or if Ohio Governor John Kasich were to split the blue state governor bloc by trading some midwestern states with Walker, then Bush might be able to eek out a delegate war.

What I think will happen, though, is that it will come down to a Walker-Bush race. And, as charismatically challenged as Scott Walker is, I don’t think he’ll have to show all that much to win that kind of showdown.

The caveats here are that Walker will never be able to compete with Jeb in his preparedness for the job, and that will show in all kinds of ways, particularly in debates and interviews with the press on foreign policy. There are also skeletons in Walkers closet that could jump out and finish his chances. I think that’s somewhat true of Jeb, too, though.

I didn’t expect to feel this way, but I do now believe that Walker is the most likely alternative to Jeb, and that he has a real shot of pulling it off.

I wonder of Jeb would help unite the party and accept the second slot on the ticket, like his father did way back in 1980?