John Warner and Richard Lugar represent the conscience of the Republican Senate when it comes to matters of our armed forces and foreign policy. When they speak other Republicans do listen. I know they were very disappointed with the reception the administration gave to the Baker-Hamilton report and they openly questioned the wisdom of the surge. I had hoped that they would organize a quiet coup to put the president and vice-president out of office, but it seems like they didn’t have the guts to do something that patriotic. However, they may have just made their move. It’s too early for me to tell for sure, but let’s look at what they’ve done.

Two leading Republican senators said today that President Bush should seek a new war authorization and present a plan to Congress by Oct. 16 outlining contingency plans in Iraq. Those plans, which would include reducing American forces, should begin by the end of the year…

…One of the main elements of their amendment, which was filed shortly after noon today, would require the president to seek a new rationale for the war authorization by the time Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top military commander in Iraq, delivers a report in September on the progress of the troop buildup. The measure also would require the president to review and update the National Intelligence Estimate for Iraq no later than Sept. 4…

…“Many of the conditions and motivations that existed when we authorized force almost five years ago no longer exist or are irrelevant to our current situation,” Mr. Lugar said. He went on, saying the 2002 war authorization is “obsolete and requires revision.”

That’s not enough specificity for me to be certain, but I think this could be highly significant. If the amendment specifies that Bush must seek a re-authorization of the war (and it depends highly on the language) it might mean that Bush cannot rely on the old authorization past the assigned date. This would effectively allow the Democrats to force an end to the war by refusing to reauthorize anything. And the following makes me think I might have this right.

The Senate was already scheduled to consider a variety of proposals next week, including one by Senators Robert Byrd, Democrat of West Virginia, and Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, seeking to de-authorize the original war authorization. That proposal, though, is not favored by the Democratic leadership because several senators who voted against the 2002 authorization are reluctant to endorse a new one.

Read that carefully. Democrats that voted against the original authorization would presumably have little problem voting to undo that authorization. But they assume a new, more limited and focused, authorization would be required to replace the old one. And they are not enthusiastic about giving any authorization at all.

If the Warner-Lugar amendment passes they would be in a position to determine the nature of a new limited authorization, or to just refuse to pass one. Will this put us back in the position we were in in the spring, where the Dems felt duty-bound to give the troops money? Could be. But their hand will be much stronger this fall.