We can talk about polling bounces all we want, but what we should be seeing in today’s polls is a bit of distortion in favor of Romney because he just held a three-day convention and the Democrats have not yet responded with their own convention. In other words, we should expect Romney’s current polling numbers to be artificially inflated.
We do see that Romney got a little bounce out of his convention which is reflected in both state and national polls, and which also is seen in measures of approval and likability. But if you look at other metrics, like 538.com’s Electoral College and popular vote projections, or Romney’s chance of winning (see sidebar on right), his numbers have been going in the wrong direction since roughly the moment the Republicans convened in Tampa. In fact, Romney is currently in his weakest position under those metrics since at least the beginning of June.
The highest plot on the Electoral College distribution probability chart is now north of 350 votes. Part of this is because Nate Silver takes account of economic data, and there has been some modestly good news lately on that front. Yet, for whatever the reasons, Obama’s numbers are trending up in the aftermath of the Republican convention.
Let’s take a look at where Romney stood on August 27th, when the RNC convened and where he stands eight days later.
Chance of Winning
August 27: Obama 69.3% Romney 30.7%
September 4: Obama 74.8% Romney 25.2%
Electoral College Projection
August 27: Obama 299 Romney 239
September 4: Obama 308.2 Romney 229.8
Popular Vote
August 27: Obama 50.6% Romney 48.2%
September 4: Obama 51.1% Romney 47.8%
Obviously, Nate Silver isn’t infallible. But his model is pretty robust. I didn’t expect Romney to lose ground in those key metrics after his convention. I expected the opposite. And I’m an optimist.
