Charlie Cook is probably the most influential political prognosticator in the business, and he has identified nine Senate seats that are in real jeopardy for the Republicans. It’s actually likely to get worse than that. First, let’s look at the nine races Cook identifies.
1. New Hampshire- In June, ARG did a poll that showed Fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen beating incumbent John Sununu by a 57%-29% margin. If she gets in the race and wins the primary, it will be a slam-dunk pick-up for the Democrats. It will also be quite a boost to Hillary Clinton’s campaign, as Mr. Shaheen is a big Clinton backer. If Shaheen does not get in there will be a primary between Tom Lantos’ daughter and noted Lieberman supporter, Katrina Swett, former astronaut Jay Buckey, and Portsmouth mayor Steve Marchand. Either Buckey or Marchand would be good choices, and any of these candidates can beat Sununu.
2. Maine- Susan Collins is facing a challenge from Rep. Tom Allen. Collins sported 73% approval rating back in November, but her popularity may not be able to withstand the political winds. No amount of spin is going to turn the catastrophe in Iraq into a pony. In Allen, Collins has the strongest challenger. He already represents half the state.
3. Minnesota- Cook correctly notes that everything depends on the Democrats fielding a strong challenger. Al Franken has very high negatives. But Franken is media savvy and extremely funny. I’m guessing his likeability will improve with increased exposure. Attorney Mike Ciresi is also running for the nomination. In either case, Norm Coleman is struggling with a 47%-44% approval rating and can be beaten. It might contrary to common wisdom, but I think he’ll be badly wounded by the GOP convention, which is being held in Minneapolis. The reasonable people of Minnesota will probably have a gag reflex with that many xenophobic, gay-hating Republicans overrunning their city.
4. Colorado- This is an open seat. The Republicans tried to rally around former Rep. Bob Schaffer, but his campaign has been such a disaster that it has inspired a primary challenge from Delta County Commissioner Wayne Wolf. The Democrats have great candidate in Rep. Mark Udall. As Cook says, “While former Rep. Bob Schaffer might be able to hold the seat for Republicans in fending off Democratic Rep. Mark Udall, the odds look worse than 50-50.”
5. Virginia- Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner is getting ready to jump into this open seat race. Cook says, “Mark Warner would be considered an almost prohibitive favorite.” Rasmussen strongly backs that assessment. If Warner gets in, this seat is going to go blue and it will actually help to put Virginia in play for the Democratic presidential nominee.
6. Nebraska- This is an open seat. I’ve heard privately that Fmr. Sen. Bob Kerrey is house shopping in the state. If he gets in, he has to be considered a favorite to win. His strongest opponent would be former governor and current Secretary of Agriculture, Mike Johanns. But Johanns is not in yet in the race.
7. Oregon- Gordon Smith has a meager 46%-44% approval rating. Unfortunately for him, his opponent is likely to be popular speaker of the state house, Jeff Merkley (although Steve Novick is running, too). It won’t be easy for Smith to retain this seat in a presidential election year. One wild-card will be the independent campaign of John Frohnmayer, who served as ‘chair of the National Endowment for the Arts under the elder George Bush’.
8. Alaska- A lot depends on Ted Stevens, who is under a FBI corruption investigation. Even the USA Today is calling for Stevens to be stripped of his committee assignments. Alaska’s GOP appears even more compromised that the Ohio GOP in ’06. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is considered the strongest potential challenger.
9. New Mexico- Cook notes, “For Domenici, questions have been raised about the propriety of a phone call from him to a U.S. attorney over the status of an investigation of Democratic political figures, and whether Domenici had anything to do with that U.S. attorney being subsequently sacked.” Don Wiviott is the likely Democratic nominee. If Bill Richardson is on the presidential ticket it could make this seat even more vulnerable. Or, Domenici, who is 75 years old, might just retire.
So, those are the nine vulnerable seats identified by Cook. But there are more vulnerable seats, and the Establishment seems to be in some denial about how deep the Republican problems are.
10. Kentucky- Mitch McConnell has a fairly anemic 50%-43% approval rating. As Minority Leader he is tied like a stone to the Bush administration and their war. He’ll be facing Attorney General Greg Stumbo
