I just watched most of a program on MSNBC that was hosted by Chuck Todd and which focused on making predictions about the elections. He had Charlie Cook on to talk about the Senate races and I was interested to see that Mr. Cook’s predictions, if true, would result in no net change in the party composition of the Senate. Mr. Todd also noted the oddness of this prospect and added that it would be weird if all these billions were spent and we wound up with the same president, the same Speaker of the House, and the identical split in the Senate.
We would have had all this argument and wound with basically no change at all. How could that happen in a country in which less than one in ten people approve of the job Congress is doing? The only thing I can say is that corporate money and media are putting a pretty heavy thumb on the scale for the Republicans and that is keeping them afloat. I could get into the details of how they go about doing this, but the details are not necessary to explain the phenomenon.
One woman on the show, when asked to make a prediction about an election surprise, said that she thought the Democrats might take back the House. Chuck Todd almost had an aneurysm. It was all he could do not to laugh her off the set. I’ll admit that I will be surprised if the Democrats win back the House, but it isn’t a totally ridiculous prediction. The Democrats are going to win a lot of House seats. The problem is that they are going to lose quite a few, too. I may make an effort to do a detailed prediction before Tuesday if I can find the time, but my rough estimate is that the Dems will win about 27-30 seats but that they will lose 8-10. That puts them at a low of 17 and a high of 22, which is just short of the 25 they need. I don’t think it’s outlandish to think we might exceed those expectations by a handful of seats and win the House.
I also thought Charlie Cook was too bearish on the Democrats’ chances in the Senate. He picked Tommy Thompson to win in Wisconsin, and I just don’t see where he gets the evidence to make that prediction. Three separate polls released over the last three days show Tammy Baldwin ahead of Thompson and getting between 48%-51% of the vote. He also picked the Republicans to win in Nevada, Arizona, and North Dakota. Those are all close races that are tough for the Democrats, but I don’t think it is safe to assume that the GOP will sweep them all. I fell confident about North Dakota and I think the other two are pure toss-ups. While I am concerned about the polling out of Nevada that shows Heller ahead, I also remember the same polling showing Sharron Angle ahead of Harry Reid. And I think Richard Carmona has the momentum in Arizona and has done enough to win over people in the middle to ride a massive Latino turnout operation to victory. Right now, I am predicting the Dems win two of these three races and also pick up the Wisconsin seat for a net gain of three seats. I really think the worst we can do on election night is to pick up one seat.
On the presidential level, I think there is a good chance that Obama will win all the swing states, which will mean that he will have the exact same result as in 2008 except that he will lose Indiana. North Carolina and Florida are too close to call and may require recounts. I don’t feel great about Colorado, either. The polling looks good but the early voting does not. Yet, I think the Obama campaign has momentum and that their ground game will help them modestly outperform expectations.
The odds are that we will wind up with the same president, a Senate that is more progressive but only modestly more Democratic, and a House still controlled by John Boehner, but by only a half dozen seats or so.
I’d recommend getting involved in House races, because stealing that away from the Republicans would be the real surprise and the real game changer on Tuesday.
I think we have a good chance of winning back the House. We lost basically nothing with redistricting thanks to California and Illinois and if we don’t win it this time how will we ever win it back again? I know that really isn’t a reason to say we’ll win it but I believe there is a strong possibility of a Speaker Pelosi next year.
I believe there is a weak possibility, but it is not out of the question.
If the Dems fall short this year, they might have a better shot after more states pass redistricting reform. Ohio has Issue 2 on the ballot, which not only changes how we do redistricting, but mandates a new redistricting for the 2014 election if passed.
Is there any clue about the projected outcome on Issue 2? I run across so many people here who don’t even know it’s going to be on the ballot. And it’s not the kind of issue that gets the average low info voter’s blood boiling. I have to break it down to them as a simple, “Do you want politicians deciding congressional districts?” People’s eyes glaze over when you talk about it.
I don’t know anything about Issue 2 in Ohio, but I do know I had similar thoughts about the redistricting reform here in California before it passed. And it passed easily! So perhaps a majority of voters are more progressive-minded than we often think. At least on some issues.
From The Guardian Iran suspends uranium enrichment
Ayatollahs reading Nate Silver?
Could swing a few down ticket races.
I think this is genuinely great news, but I have a hard time believing that something this late in the election would have a discernable effect on the election. It sure as hell can’t hurt any, though.
If I thought there were any question about the Jewish vote in FL, this would erase it—I called my just-about-to-retire Jewish mother with the news as soon as I heard. She lives in a different swing state, and has already voted for Obama, but has frequently worried out loud that the President is insufficiently committed to Israel’s security, or that he hasn’t been willing to stand up to Iran. I can definitely say those doubts are gone.
Agree – the election has been set for some time and a reset in the last few days requires something truly extraordinary or momentous.
However, had it been true, wouldn’t want to discount it in a toss-up congressional race where the GOP is a crazed, belligerent “bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” guy/gal.
I don’t know how long your version of the link was up, but the updated version says that Iran would suspend enrichment as a quid pro quo, not that they’re unilaterally disarming.
Laura Rozen says other governments have confirmed: it’s only a trial balloon, not something that’s already happened.
Long enough to read it and post a “heads-up” comment, but not make too big a deal out of it. Few geopolitical moves impinge on the brains of Americans and fewer still impact US elections. The government in Iran learned long ago that in DC they have no friends, only enemies with marginal differences among them over time.
Article must have changed content. Heding now states:
I don’t think we get the House until 2014.
But Holy Frijoles, one of my predictions (Steve M/Nostradamus diary comment) came true a little too early:
It has already happened and Dick Morris appears to be the first:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/03/1155046/-Romney-camp-blaming-Sandy-for-their-upcoming-loss
Not that Morris ever had any credibility, but it’s his way of saving face. “My predictions would have been right, and I woulda gotten away with it too if it hadn’t been for those darn hurricanes!”
If that’s the case, then isn’t Sandy also indisputable proof that God really, really doesn’t want Romney to win? Hell, if the gays caused 9/11…
Alternatively, maybe the Rapture’s just been pushed ahead of schedule.
Remember the old axiom:
Conservatism can never fail, it can only be failed.
It is the poor and imperfect people who are unable to live up to the standard. Kind of like a religion. Conservatives are born into political sin, and always fall short of the “Glory of Reagan”. So there must always be some kind of blood sacrifice to atone for their failings.
Regarding AZ, a factor to consider is that a lot of Democrats, and especially Latinos, are all fired up to vote the despicable Joe Arpaio out of office as sheriff of Maricopa County. Thus there is every reason to expect a VERY strong turnout of so-called “unlikely” voters in that county, which has not been reflected in the polling.
Maricopa is home to nearly 60% of Arizona’s population.
Interestingly Colorado OFA is very confident. They’re pointing to 2010 when Bennett won by a sliver and noting that they are way ahead of the 2010 pace here.
Demographics have changed quite a bit in 4 years as well. More Latino … which the polls seem to have underestimated in Nevada and Colorado in 2010 causing pollsters to pick those incorrectly as GOP Senate pickups.
Agreed. Also, OFA has been encouraging supporters to vote by mail as opposed to early voting/election day voting, so the early voting numbers might not be as dire as they look.
Interesting. What’s the reasoning behind encouraging mail in voting rather than early voting in person?
I’m not sure. Possibly because mail-in is simple. No lines, no interrogation from the election judge, no challenges from the GOP poll watchers, no ID. You can mail in or drop-off. You can go to ANY polling place and drop it off even if it is nor your precinct.
Whatever the reason, OFA is tracking just just who voted early but also who reports having mailed in their vote. The latter is an internal number and helps their confidence a lot.
Just heard from an organizer in NH that we are meeting our targets and have the state won unless our models are wrong.
We are doing very well!
332-206 Obama-Romney, 51.2%(D)-47.4%(R)-1.4%(L+G)
Net D+3 in the senate (technically, D+2, I+1, but whatever)
Net D+19 in the house, Republicans maintain control
My predictions are based on no empirical reasoning whatsoever, and are instead what would amuse me most personally on Tuesday. I want to see congress’ approval ratings finally hit that magic 0% level, as the country continues to steadfastly refuse to break the gridlock at the ballot box.
I early voted in Ohio on 2 Oct, the first day. The Dems had no one on the ballot opposing Boehner.
Wow! There’s some political malpractice for you. No one to shove Boehner’s failure in his face in his home district.
This safe use of resources strategy is what has been killing the Democratic control of the House for two decades. I guess shutting down government and trashing our credit rating is what the Democratic establishment in that district wants.
They tried that 50-state strategy during the four years Howard Dean ran the DNC. The DEM insider/elites couldn’t wait to dump Dean and his winning formula. Put too much pressure on them to deliver what they only intended to promise. What a waste.
I do believe that on the large issues (debt ceiling, deficit, etc…) Boehner really does want to get compromise and move both parties forward.
So, if we cannot win back control of the house then at they very least I hope that we can exorcise a good portion of the Tea Party members who refuse to participate in any kid of compromise, specially the ones that poison the water with falsehoods and fear (West, Bachmann, Walsh, Buerkle, etc…).
Should Boehner continue to be Speaker, then hopefully he can whip enough members on the right and find enough willing souls on the left to find common ground and get things done.
With President Obama in a 2nd term, and a majority in the Senate (especially if there is filibuster reform to reduce the number from 60 to 55 or so), that will put considerable pressure on the house to show that they, too, can cooperate and be productive.
Boehner will be replaced by Cantor within the year.
So you are saying that the fix is in, right?
Would it really be so “weird” ‘…if all these billions were spent and we wound up with the same president, the same Speaker of the House, and the identical split in the Senate?’
Sounds like the PermaGov to me.
PermaGov squared.
Cubed, even.
And yet you and thousands of others continue to blather on about this, that and the other thing that will, might or won’t happen.
Lord!!!
It’s just sports talk transposed.
You know what is really weird?
The fact that thousands of otherwise quite intelligent and caring people continue to play this bob-for-apples game when there are no apples in the tub…there have not been any since the JFK murder coup, actually…and the water is filthy.
So it goes.
Down like a motherfucker.
Bet on it.
The only question that remains is…how long before the bob-for-apples- tub springs an unrepairable leak?
Let us pray.
And cease being preyed upon.
Word.
Later…
AG
There are some symbolic victories that could turn the tone in the House even if parties don’t change. I don’t know how likely they are but they would create a narrative.
Defeats of more than one of these:
John Boehner
Eric Cantor
Paul Ryan
Darrell Issa
Pete King
Steve King
Michele Bachmann
Virginia Foxx
Patrick McHenry
With the increasing confidence of winning, the objective now is to run the tables.
Not a snowball’s chance in hell that Boehner loses since Nobdy is running against him.
And we wonder why we can’t hold a Congress like we used to pre-Reagan.
“no change at all. How could that happen…”
Note that the corporate media “panel” was not amazed that Repubs would suffer no damage with an approval rating of 10% for their Do-Nothing Repub Congress. Thus the talking headlice not only won’t make your point about the tsunami of corporate money throwing the election, they come to the insane conclusion that it made no difference at all! “What’s all this fuss about Citizens’ United ruining elections? It made NO DIFFERENCE whatever!” [general laughter over crazy lib’ruls, cut to commercial].
The unfortunate reality is that Repubs have found their members are effectively insulated from accountability for whatever insane shit they actually PASS as a body–such as the Ryan budget. They have passed two budgets that radically transform (supposedly untouchable) Medicare and won’t suffer serious consequences for it, according to these pundits. Hell, their Rummy of a prez candidate likely WINS Florida, with its army of seniors.
How? Because seniors “really” didn’t think the Ryan plan was so bad? Or because they were lied to non-stop on teevee by KKKarl Rover, and the worthless corporate press refused to explain anything? You decide.
Repubs openly refused every compromise on their trumped-up debt issue, protected their plutocrats at every turn, brought the country to the brink of national default, caused an unprecedented lowering of the nation’s credit rating, passed NOTHING that any economist thought would have the slightest effect on boosting employment in a deep recession, and blocked numerous Obama proposals that economists overwhelmingly agreed would aid employment. To say nothing of waging the most repulsive American Taliban War on Women that has ever been seen. With almost 100% of their cretinous “conservative” members denying climate change with even greater vehemence. If ever a party should objectively suffer an electoral rout at the hands of “independents”, Repubs should.
But apparently there is no chance of this happening to the greatest Do-Nothing (Repub) Congress in history according to Chuck Todd & Co. Nor are the Beltwayers too interested in explaining this somewhat amazing little fact. Instead they are relieved that the oceans of corporate Bribe n’ Propaganda money “didn’t change anything!” That is the conclusion of someone who cannot see their hand in front of their face. Your Lib’rul Media!
Perfect. Would make a great diary.
The bought-and-paid-for talkers may be downplaying the GOTP House’s vulnerability but the GOTP itself is fully aware – as is Nancy Pelosi and the DCCC.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/265735-young-guns-unlikely-to-fare-as-well-in-house-
races