Obviously we are all focused on the upcoming midterm elections, as well we should be. I just want to make a point about the 2008 Senate elections. On the surface, it looks really good for the Dems because they will only have to defend 12 seats, while the GOP will have to defend 21 seats. Here’s the list:
1. Alexander, Lamar- (R – TN)
2. Allard, Wayne- (R – CO)
3. Chambliss, Saxby- (R – GA)
4. Cochran, Thad- (R – MS)
5. Coleman, Norm- (R – MN)
6. Collins, Susan M.- (R – ME)
7. Cornyn, John- (R – TX)
8. Craig, Larry E.- (R – ID)
9. Dole, Elizabeth- (R – NC)
10. Domenici, Pete V.- (R – NM)
11. Enzi, Michael B.- (R – WY)
12. Graham, Lindsey- (R – SC)
13. Hagel, Chuck- (R – NE)
14. Inhofe, James M.- (R – OK)
15. McConnell, Mitch- (R – KY)
16. Roberts, Pat- (R – KS)
17. Sessions, Jeff- (R – AL)
18. Smith, Gordon H.- (R – OR)
19. Stevens, Ted- (R – AK)
20. Sununu, John E.- (R – NH)
21. Warner, John- (R – VA)
1. Baucus, Max- (D – MT)
2. Biden, Joseph R., Jr.- (D – DE)
3. Durbin, Richard- (D – IL)
4. Harkin, Tom- (D – IA)
5. Johnson, Tim- (D – SD)
6. Kerry, John F.- (D – MA)
7. Landrieu, Mary L.- (D – LA)
8. Lautenberg, Frank R.- (D – NJ)
9. Levin, Carl- (D – MI)
10. Pryor, Mark L.- (D – AR)
11. Reed, Jack- (D – RI)
12. Rockefeller, John D., IV- (D – WV)
Looking at the Democrats I’d like to remind you that Frank Lautenberg was born January 23, 1924. In 2008, he will be 86 years old. Other than Lautenberg we will have to defend seats in the red states of Montana, South Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Arkansas, and West Virginia.
Looking at the Republicans, there are a lot of seats but how many of them come from blue states? Only four: Minnesota, Maine, Oregon, and New Hampshire.
Our prospects for picking up seats will depend on our ability to field candidates in red states that can appeal to their cultures. And that is a real danger. Because, we will find the Senate looking forward to the ’08 elections very soon after the ’07 session begins. So, how do we deal with electoral reality? What’s the strategy?
Of the Democrats listed, the only one I’m really worried about would be Landrieu, who barely skated by last time because she advertised her 74% voting record in line with Bush. I’m not sure how the dynamics have changed sinec then, but she’s the most vulnerable one on there. I would add Tim Johnson as well, except I don’t know of any prominent Republicans who would knock him off. Anyone have an idea?
On the flip side, Colorado is going to be ground zero for a massive battle (Mark Udall has already declared he’s running), and the state is definitely trending our way. We need to get a serious candidate (not Al Franken) to run against Coleman in ’08 as well. I hope Mark Warner runs for John Warner’s seat in ’08 (he’s going to be 81); he’d win it easily. Maybe we can get Lynch to run against Sununu in NH; that’d easily turn that race into a battleground as well.
Anyways, I think we’ll definitely be playing offense in 2008. I’m not sure who would replace Lautenberg in NJ, but I think just about any Democrat can hold the seat.
Against Coleman, is Alan Page still a viable candidate? His name was thrown around along with Fritz as a sub after Senator Wellstone’s tragic plane crash. They obviously went with Fritz, although I think Page would have been a much better substitute.
Would Bradley run again in NJ? I’m sure their bench is pretty weak if they got Menendez and Lautenberg, but still.
Harkin always has a rough go in Iowa – ’02 he kind of breezed by Ganske but Ganske was more of a pretty-boy repub who didn’t really get the wingnuts out in Western Iowa that excited. But in ’96, he nearly lost to Lightfoot, who is a deranged nutjuob, over the partial-birth abortion issue. Big Dog had to come in at the last minute and provide some coat-tails, and Harking squeeked by. Barely. Whereas GrASSley (R) always cruises by 20+ in his re-election contests for Senate.
Al Franken is a serious candidate. I’m in Wisconsin now, but I lived in Minnesota for 28 years and most of my friends and family still live there. Franken’s well respected in the state, he’s a native, and he was a close friend of Wellstone’s which matter enormously. I know people who normally don’t get involved in politics beyond voting at every level who are talking about going to work for him. He’s also one of the few people who can completely reactivate the Wellstone machince. Also, you’ve got to remember that Minnesota elected Jesse Ventura in a race against Norm Coleman for governor. Coleman is not well liked and Franken can take him.
Landrieu – she should have a primary – voted for torture
NH – Lynch or Sheehan, former governor – lost due to phone jamming in 2002, and other Rethug dirty tricks
100% agree on Mark Warner – he’s perfect for VA
CO- Do they have a DFA group out there? Wouldn’t they be a good resource to do initial check out of candidates?
Oh, what does that mean? We have to put forth warmongering former Republican misogynists like Webb?
How about we find people who will argue for the working man, for a populist message built around opportunity, built around the American idea of fairness, around the general behavior of “live and let live” that most people actually practice even when they spout racist or homophobic nonsense? When we “appeal to their cultures”, how about we find people who will appeal to THOSE qualities, and not racism, xenophobia, misogyny and nativism? Can we find people who advocate openness and fair trade and decency?
HOW ABOUT WE OFFER PEOPLE THAT CHOICE?
Or will we pander, as Rahm and Chuck have insisted we pander? Will we continue down the triangulation road, embrace torture and empire and exploitation?
HOW ABOUT WE OFFER PEOPLE THAT CHOICE?
You have to find the candidates first. And frankly, if a statewide candidate espoused those values in Alabama a nutjob would kill him or her within a month. It’s scary how violently reactionary some of the churchgoers around here are.
I’m looking at Georgia, and Saxby Chambliss. I’m hoping and praying that someone, anyone just kicks his ass next time. Calling Max Clelend, a triple amputee, and decorated war hero Un-American, and questioning his patriotism is absolutely criminal. Mr. Chambliss, you sir are the one who’s Un-American you pathetic S.O.B.!!!!
Two quick thoughts:
Man I’ll do a Snoopy Victory Dance if McConnell gets defeated, that traitor.
Horrible to realize we need to wait untl 2010 to get a shot at Jim Bunning, that traitor and moron.
Me, too, Arminius. I grew up partly in KY, and love the state so much, still have family there. I detest McConnell- – and we came so close to defeating Bunning. Had the DNC & Kerry campaign paid any attention to the state in 2004, Bunning would have been defeated. McConnell will not go down so easily; he must have a war chest rivaling Hillary’s, what with his enormous tobacco support.
I’d love to see Chandler take him on, but I’m not sure Chandler is ready for that yet, or how he’ll play state-wide.
It is good to see which seats we must defend and which we must have challengers for. But, any predictions about what are red states and what are blue states will change dramatically based on the 2006 election. And it is not clear what that change will be.
In addition, if Democrats succeed in taking one or more Houses of Congress and start investigating what has been going on, the political landscape just might not look the same.
Finally, our ability to mount challenges depends on finding the right challengers to run. There are folks out there who currently are not on our radar who might very well move a seat into the D column.
With all those warnings, here are my best picks to go Dem.:
Allard – Colorado
Coleman – Minnesota
Craig – Idaho
Dole – NC
Enzi – WY
McConnell – KY
Roberts – KS
Warner – VA (possibly replaced by Mark Warner)
Sununu – NH
Here are the ones we must defend:
Open – NJ (Lautenberg)
Johnson – SD (although being the only one currently in Congress with a son who served in Iraq helps his chances)
Landrieu – LA
Baucus, Harkin, and Pryor are probably in safe seats if they run for re-election.
Here are the ones to mount progressive primary challenges, even if they don’t succeed:
Biden – DE
Landrieu – LA, if it succeeds and wins in the general there is another progressive (not unthinkable for anywhere in the South), if not Landrieu can tout her moderate credentials
Kerry should be a shoo-in and could anchor the campaign effort.
Last of all, who should we try to find really good opposition for (such as Webb against Allen):
Max Cleland should have a rematch with Chambliss; Chambliss now has a record.
The strongest Texas Democrat against Cornyn
Richardson against Domenici
Freudenthal against Enzi
Who??? against Inhofe
Sibelius against Roberts?
Who??? against McConnell
Who??? against Cochran
Instead of trying to predict, let’s see what we can make happen in two years.
I don’t think NJ will be too big a threat. Who will the GOP put out? Kean will be a loser by then, and throwing up a perennial loser like Forrester or Schundler won’t do the job.
As for the GOP – why do you have Craig so high? I know he was outed yesterday, but who do we have in Idaho who would have a prayer of capturing that seat? As for Enzi…I doubt Freudenthal will run. I wouldn’t get ahead of myself there.
If Mark Warner runs in 2008, he’ll win the seat, even if John Warner doesn’t retire. VA and CO should be our top 2 targets, IMO.
How about Rep. Rush Holt in NJ? From central NJ (important in a state as geographically divided as NJ is between South Jersey and North Jersey) and getting good attention because of his bill proposing paper receipts for electronic voting machines. He’d make an excellent progressive candidate for the Lautenberg seat. From a very wealthy district, too, which doesn’t hurt in terms of fundraising…
Should have included this link:
http://holt.house.gov/about.shtml
You’re wrong about Craig, if he loses it will be to another Republican in the primary. There is no Democrat in Idaho who has even a remote chance of winning statewide. I would Craig’s seat as the least likely pickup of the 21.
Sebelius would be the ONLY one who could do it in KS.
Remember, ‘you don’t have any civil liberties if you’re dead.’ Thanks, Pat. F’ing derelict.
Iraq is getting worse, most Americans oppose our Iraqi debacle, all Republican Senators on the list support our Iraqi debacle, Bush has vowed that our Iraqi debacle will continue until at least 2009. If Bush sticks to his lousy policy, I’m guessing Democratic strategy will center around Iraq whether they want it to or not.