If you were a fly on the wall in the White House over the weekend (or on March 22, 1973), you might have heard an exchange that went something like this.
PRESIDENT: You think, you think we want to, want to go this route now? And the — let it hang out, so to speak?
McGAHN: Well, it’s, it isn’t really that —
MILLER: It’s a limited hang out.
McGAHN: It’s a limited hang out.
BANNON: It’s a modified limited hang out.
PRESIDENT: Well, it’s only the questions of the thing hanging out publicly or privately.
All I’ve done here is change the names from Dean, Haldeman, and Erlichmann. A limited (modified) hangout is something the intelligence community does when things have gotten out of hand and they can no longer just deny, deny, deny.
In spy jargon, it’s a tactic used when “they can no longer rely on a phony cover story to misinform the public, they resort to admitting—sometimes even volunteering—some of the truth while still managing to withhold the key and damaging facts in the case. The public, however, is usually so intrigued by the new information that it never thinks to pursue the matter further.”
Nancy has already ably described some of the basics related to the resignation of Michael Flynn, so I won’t replicate her efforts here. It’s important to keep in mind that everything that came to light in the last week was already known or knowable before the inauguration.
The immediate dispute was about a phone call between Flynn and the Russian ambassador Sergey I. Kislyak that took place on December 29th, the same day that President Obama announced new unilateral sanctions against Russia and the expulsion of “35 suspected Russian intelligence operatives” in retaliation for their interference in our presidential election. Russia’s first response was belligerent, as Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov vowed retaliation and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced reciprocal plans to expel American diplomats.
But then something surprising happened. Vladimir Putin announced that there would be no response and that they’d simply wait to deal with Trump. What happened next looks very interesting in retrospect.
Great move on delay (by V. Putin) – I always knew he was very smart!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 30, 2016
At the time, it was jarring to see President Obama blister Putin on the 29th only to see Trump praise him on the 30th. So, what had Michael Flynn said on the phone call? Did it cause Russia to back off the threats made by Peskov and Lavrov?
Once the intelligence community located the recording and transcribed it, it was clear that Flynn had asked Russia not to retaliate and held out the promise of softer treatment and better relations once he and Trump took office. It didn’t take long for news to get out about the phone call itself, if not immediately the content of the call. By January 13th, Sean Spicer told the press that “I can confirm having spoken to [Flynn] about it is those conversations that happened to occur around the time that the United States took action to expel diplomats had nothing whatsoever to do with those sanctions.” The official story was that the call was about scheduling a post-inaugural call between Putin and Trump.
Two days later, on Sunday the 15th, Mike Pence appeared on Face the Nation and said, “[Flynn and Kislyak] did not discuss anything having to do with the United States’ decision to expel diplomats or impose censure against Russia.”
The Intelligence Community and the Obama administration noticed these lies and realized immediately that if Michael Flynn had indeed misled Spicer and Pence that he had just opened himself up to blackmail.
Sometime in late January, the Justice Department notified the Trump administration that Flynn was subject to blackmail, but nothing appears to have been done about it until that news broke in the Washington Post yesterday.
The blackmail risk envisioned by the Justice Department would have stemmed directly from Mr. Flynn’s attempt to cover his tracks with his bosses. The Russians knew what had been said on the call; thus, if they wanted Mr. Flynn to do something, they could have threatened to expose the lie if he refused.
There’s a juicy tidbit in the New York Times’ story on this: “The F.B.I. had been examining Mr. Flynn’s phone calls as he came under growing questions about his interactions with Russian officials and his management of the National Security Council.” That makes it sound like the Intelligence Community was so unhappy about Flynn’s work at the NSC that they took him out by sending the blackmail notification and then leaking about it to the Post when no action was taken by Trump.
But, of course, long before that happened, Pence learned what was actually on the transcript of the call. He knew that he’d been lied to and that he had gone on national television and repeated those lies. At that point, Pence and the Intelligence Community had a common cause, and they seemed to have worked in tandem, with Pence taking the lead on the 10th and the IC delivering the death blow on the 13th.
An administration official told POLITICO that Pence’s remarks came after a conversation with Flynn and were guided by that conversation — leaving open the possibility that Flynn misled the Vice President just as he repeatedly denied the allegations to the Washington Post before acknowledging the topic may have been discussed.
Privately, Pence aides expressed frustration at their boss being placed in such a position.
We were talking about limited (modified) hangouts, and this could be an example of that. Everyone focuses on Flynn having lied to Pence rather than asking what Pence knew about Flynn’s plans to call the Russian ambassador on the 29th.
More likely, though, Pence wasn’t part of that strategy. Given Trump’s tweet on December 30th, it’s much harder to believe that he was out of the loop. And I believe that protecting that information is the real hangout here.
To see the hangout in action, consider the case of the Chairman of the House Committee on Oversight & Government Reform, Rep. Jason Chaffetz of Utah. He’s supposed to be the watchdog of the administration. He should be issuing subpoenas like hotcakes.
Rep Jason Chaffetz R-UT tells reporters there's no need to further probe Flynn. "It’s taking care of itself"
— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) February 14, 2017
By giving up Flynn as a scalp, the administration hopes to stop all the investigations and questions about their connections to Russia and possible coordination in hacking into the Democratic National Committee and John Podesta’s emails. Their allies in Congress are ready to play ball.
But it’s important to remember that neither the media nor congressional oversight took Flynn down. Flynn was taken down from within. He was taken down by the Intelligence Community with Pence as a seeming co-conspirator. All the fatal reporting came from those two sources.
So, it appears that this won’t be the end unless those two parties are satisfied that taking Flynn down solved the problem.
But the problem isn’t and never was Flynn. The problem is the president.
Differences between this and Watergate:
Watergate was a physical break in. This one was electronic.
The goons in Watergate were Americans. This time, agents of a hostile foreign government.
The end.
Another difference: Nixon would have won without it.
Touche.
Further difference: We have no Sam Ervin, no Barbara Jordan, no Elliot Richardson, and most especially no Howard Baker, no Lowell Weicker.
For this to really gain any momentum, someone on the R side of the aisle needs to makes some noise. But if they do, I will only see it cynically as the R’s trying to get their wet-dream of Pence as POTUS.
I would have bet on McCain but it seems that Graham is first out of the gate
The dam is starting to break.
Another good metaphor: this freight train is heading downhill and is gaining speed.
One more thought: the simplest explanation is usually the right one. So, would Flynn go off on a solo project and contact the Russians without first talking with anyone else on the planet, or was he simply a good soldier, following orders? The latter is the far simpler explanation.
LOL!! Both of them have zero credibility. When the tires hit the pavement, they’ll go back to supporting Trump. Just like they have so far.
I could care less about their “credibility”. I could care less about their future support of Trump. I am not looking to be friends with these people, or have them over for drinks. I care that they support a real investigation.
They won’t, that’s the point. Besides, what would the end result be? President Pence? President Ryan? After Ryan comes Orrin Hatch, as President pro tempore of the Senate. All of them are horrible.
Because as we all know, Donald Trump walks away quietly from situations that are detrimental to himself without damaging others around him, and damaging impeachment hearings or his removal from office would allow a smooth transition of power to Pence or Ryan.
Change your name from Perspective to Nihilist.
I literally just posted a link with Graham calling for an investigation.
Howard Baker was Nixon’s mole on the Watergate Committee, but Baker did not know the taping system existed.
“What did the President know and when did he know it?” was intended to protect Nixon.
But it blew up so beautifully in their faces, didn’t it? I’ll take that sort of sabotage any day.
Very good analysis.
Could this be the beginning of the take-down of Trump by the Pence faction? It sure is lining up that way. Which is why I think you nailed it — keeping Pence away from the flames is the real hangout here.
This story is massive but I wonder if one angle is this
If American assets are being compromised in Russia because the Russians are in the Oval Office, I suspect that people in the IC could be very very unhappy about that.
There’s a reason intelligence agencies are reportedly keeping information from principals on the NSC.
And, Pentagon assumes Russia has ears in WH Situation Room:
TPM notes that Flynn’s letter did not directly apologize to president for lying. Did he leave a door open on his way out?
You know, it was one thing to talk about Cheney as the brains and moving force behind Bushco. He was an evil serial lawbreaker, but he at least fit the role of Darth Vader.
But to have to sit and listen to stories about doofus Christianist Pence as the upcoming power behind the throne and true nerve-center of executive branch is a bit too much to swallow. He is a third rate nobody who is almost certainly as dim as he appears. He was chosen basically because the Trumpites couldn’t find an elected Repub who was willing to smilingly stand next to the would-be Fuhrer except McDonald’s-schlepping Christie, and Der Trumper surely didn’t think too much of him, for good reason. Emperor Claudius was less implausible, ha-ha.
Not exactly someone central casting would send down to play Brutus. Et tu, Penc-e? Can’t see it.
Of course, the central problem is that the unaccountable Repub Congress is permanently broken, and as the institution devised to check and investigate the actions of the executive branch, its failure ends the discussion, which is certainly the WH strategy. Der Trumper has now been made to look weak and transparently incompetent–this after groveling to the Chinese premier about the idiotic Taiwan gambit. Weak, weak, weak.
The reality is that Flynn was likely not on a frolic of his own, but instead doing as he was instructed by the inner Trumpite circle. But unless Flynn has the legal screws put to him and begins talking, this is the (planned) end of the matter.
We have a supposed opposition party. They have now been given the story that could destroy Der Trumper. They know their Repub colleagues’ mission is to bury the story with the modified limited hangout. The ball is in their court, and they even have an unhappy IC to potentially help them. They have yet to appear in the drama…..
This is a solid start for today’s responses:
So far, so good.
Booman wrote: “A limited (modified) hangout is something the intelligence community does when things have gotten out of hand and they can no longer just deny, deny, deny.”
It usually works. Except the problem for Trump is, the people he’s trying to place with the limited hangout ARE the intelligence community. These guys are not going to be fooled for one second by limited hangouts, they see right through them. They will pursue this relentlessly.
I meant to write: “the people he’s trying to placate” …
As Nancy Pelosi noted, Flynn tweeted one word today, “Scapegoat”. Only question will be who will Flynn spill the beans to?
Flynn won’t say nuthin’ without a squad of lawyers and immunity. Only then will he give testimony about private discussions with Trump before and after the inauguration.
And he won’t get immunity without a Congressional Committee granting it. That is the thing that must be stopped so you won’t see one started unless the GOP finds Trump is a damaged tool and has to be replaced.
R
Oh my. If I was Flynn I’d be checking my meals with a geiger counter.
A dash of Polonium in your tea, sir?
Perhaps less of a problem than you may believe. Perhaps.
http://www.vox.com/world/2017/2/14/14609478/michael-flynn-trump-foreign-policy
Two issues Beauchamp avoids mentioning in his summary:
OT, except that it reminds us once again of why we have to get rid of these ass clowns.
Stop HR 482 & SB 103 Local Zoning Decisions Protection Act of 2017 — To be delivered to The United States Senate
Rep. Gosar, Paul A. [R-AZ-4] has proposed a new bill HR 482 and SB 103, which represents a direct attack on the collection, storage, and distribution of geospatial information, antiracism work, and affordable housing. The goal of this bill is to eliminate data used to support social change, which clearly stands at odds with the pursuit of knowledge about human geography, including census data. This bill would prohibit a significant amount of academic work on race, racism, and fair housing in the US, as well as GIS research more broadly, all of which work towards social justice.
http://petitions.moveon.org/thanks.html?petition_id=118985&from_source=none&id=-786281-FJLnJ
j
I meant to point out that is a massive violation of the First Amendment on multiple fronts.