When it comes to polls, I am the most skeptical about them when they measure public opinion on issues rather than candidates. We will probably never have an election to decide whether or not to overturn Roe v. Wade, so we’ll never know if a poll saying that people support overturning the ruling was accurate or wildly off the mark. We learned that Gallup and Rasmussen were smoking crack all last year only because we had an actual election for president that proved that their models were as flawed as they looked. So, grain of salt and all that.
A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows support for abortion rights and Roe v. Wade to be at an all-time high. And it shows most of the movement is coming from blacks, Latinos, and women without college degrees.
If their findings are accurate, it seems to be an example of people adopting the values of the home team. The president is pro-choice and blacks are fiercely loyal to the president. Therefore, it isn’t surprising that public opinion in the black community is moving to reflect the president’s values. We saw a large uptick in black support for gay marriage after the president came out in favor of it, despite the fact that a backlash was predicted.
Latinos and blue collar women aren’t so much loyal to the president as completely alienated by the Republicans’ rhetoric about immigration and/or contraception, rape, fair pay, reproductive rights, etc. As large numbers in these groups have moved into Obama’s coalition, they are beginning to adopt the values of that coalition. It probably isn’t limited to abortion rights. They are probably becoming better disposed to unions. They may be growing more environmentally conscious.
The flip side could be seen in the amazing rapidity with which the Republican base embraced climate change denialism once Al Gore made it his signature issue.
This isn’t so much an argument that people don’t have free agency to make moral decisions for themselves as it is a demonstration that leadership can change people’s minds. Bad leadership can turn people into opponents of science and logic. Good leadership can lead people to embrace more enlightened positions.
But, yeah, if you can rope someone into the party on one issue, there is a good chance that before long they will be with you on many issues. It’s the team mentality.
