In February 2010, when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid finally got around to using the budget reconciliation process to ram home passage of the Affordable Care Act, I noted that he should have done it in April 2009 and included a public option. A lot of time and drama was wasted trying to pass health care reform as an “inclusive process,” when all that really happened was delay that allowed a Tea Party revolt to form. Too many cooks in the kitchen and too many corporate Democrats worrying about the fee-fees of their financial benefactors resulted in a near death experience for a watered down bill. In the end, though, budget reconciliation was the only way to get Obamacare done. It was also the only way that George W. Bush was able to pass his massive budget-busting tax cuts.
The process is complicated but it allows the Senate to bypass the filibuster. There are limitations, though. All the provisions of the bill must have clear budgetary implications or it will be ruled out of order by the parliamentarian, and the legislation cannot increase the deficit past a ten-year window (thus, the sunset of Bush’s tax cuts). And you can’t amend the bill unless the other chamber amends it in a completely identical way, which in effect means that amendments cannot be allowed. In the end, the Senate had to pass the House health care bill because there was no way to reconcile the two bills in the budget reconciliation process.
Of course, the Democrats howled in agony when Bush crammed his tax cuts down their throats and the Republicans tossed aside all their justifications for that process when the Democrats used the same one for health care.
But if using budget reconciliation to pass Obamacare was the worst tyranny ever, that’s not preventing Paul Ryan from promising to use the same process to pass his granny-starving agenda through Congress so he can place it on President Donald Trump’s desk.
At a recent news conference, as reported by Politico, Ryan said that he planned to use the process known as budget reconciliation to implement his policy agenda, which he has dubbed “A Better Way.” That would mean Republicans could pass their priorities without Democratic members of Congress being able to block them.
“This is our plan for 2017,” he said, showing off a copy of the agenda. “Much of this you can do through budget reconciliation… This is our game plan for 2017.”
Of course, Ryan would need a Republican Senate. And he’d need to keep his gavel as Speaker of the House. You heard it hear first, but there’s increasing chatter that Ryan is not going to be Speaker next year.
That chatter assumes that Clinton will be elected president and the Republicans will retain a smaller majority in the House, but it’s perhaps even less likely that Ryan would survive as Speaker if Trump is the one who replaces Barack Obama in the Oval Office. Trump lives for revenge and his Breitbart campaign manager has been calling for Ryan’s head for a year now. They will not want to work with him, let alone pass his “globalist” agenda.
If Clinton wins the presidency but the Republicans retain control of the Senate and the House, and if Ryan keep’s his gavel, he can use the budget reconciliation process to put bills on Clinton’s desk, but she can just veto those bills.
So, basically, when Paul Ryan holds a news conference and explains how he’s going to pass his agenda, he’s living in a delusional alternate universe.
Of course, there are parts of Ryan’s plan that will be amendable to Trump if Ryan isn’t the one pushing them.
The tax plan Ryan put forward in June would lower the corporate tax rate, lower rates for the wealthy, and repeal the estate tax. An analysis of the plan found that 99.6 percent of its benefits would go to the richest 1 percent of Americans, leaving just 0.4 percent for everyone else. It would also cost the government $3.1 trillion over a decade.
They could also pass their proposals for Medicare and Medicaid, food stamps, and rental assistance. Ryan recently proposed instituting strict work requirements for food stamps and housing assistance that could mean throwing people off the rolls if they can’t fulfill the new conditions. His recent agenda includes block-granting Medicaid, which would cut the program by billions and leave tens of millions of people uninsured, and replacing the current guarantee of health care coverage under Medicare with a voucher to purchase private health insurance.
They could also bypass the filibuster with the budget reconciliation process to gut Obamacare.
So, while Ryan and Trump won’t be forming a team to ram this down the throats of Democrats, and Trump is less interested in whacking Medicare than Ryan, it’s still likely that budget reconciliation will have a huge role if we wake up next Wednesday and discover that the Republicans will be controlling the White House, the House, and the Senate.
All that Republican crying about budget reconciliation being unconstitutional? All the Tea Party talk about debt and deficits? Those will be gone as quickly as their belief in global warming.
And that’s before Trump asks for increased infrastructure and defense spending.
“…the Republicans will be controlling the White House, the House, and the Senate.”
Be kinda the same sinking feeling that former blue states felt when their state govts got taken over. We have plenty of sad and bad examples to study.
Except the solutions will be to double down on the ideas and methods of those who brought us to this point.
Boo, I think you got a word in the title wrong. Should be “plan,” not “scam.” And nobody’s going to care about it, at least on cable news.
The damage will be incalculable. Consider too the loss of the court for another generation. Plus God knows what on the international front.
When I first read your headline, I got excited that maybe I was missing something that would cook the Republicans’ goose and prevent them from enacting their agenda. Given their willingness to violate norms, I don’t see them even sparing Social Security.
After four years, perhaps the country will revolt. But the future is notoriously unpredictable. Could also be a terminal event for our democracy.
I have noted the supreme court loss for about a year or more now but most simply shrug at it. I guess they figure the court has little impact on our lives. Until it does.
Yes, historically rightwing, authoritarian, militarist regimes tend not to agree to relinquish power, whatever the “voters” might think. Foreign intervention has usually been necessary.
Here, the victors will be the ones with the massive home arsenals and militarized police forces, not to mention the actual soldiery. Perhaps there will be a run on the gun shops by the left, haha…
My thought when I read that was “Right. Good luck with that.”
How quaint, an informed presentation about the mega-issues of national domestic and legislative policy and the history and intentions of the two major political parties.
A shame there isn’t some sort of mechanism for such information to be presented to the mass of American voters! I’m envisioning sort of, I dunno, maybe a type of election process, extensively covered by some sort of professional journalists, perhaps extensively broadcast on national television networks? Because it does seem like this sort of information is important for a voter to know about? But perhaps I presume…
Anyway, food for thought, cuz America is about always gettin’ better and, um, Formin’ a More Perfect Yuni…Unyun…er, Onion?
Ryan is completely expendable should the Repubs be given the power to implement their long-sought plans and goals, as Dems would have no defense but the filibuster. Every Repub will want to be Speaker then!
But what on earth would compel the Repubs to continue to use the arcane reconciliation process to “ram through” their fondest desires should they control the federal gub’mint? I suppose there’s no reason not to use it for actual budget legislation, but they surely are not going to allow the senate Dems to pull what they pulled against Obama once they get their next Repub prez.
The filibuster in such circumstances will be toast, with Dems blamed for “unprecedented obstruction!!” that wrecked the beloved Olde Tyme senate, while our crackerjack stenographic media parrots it all verbatim…
The damage from a Trump presidency is indeed incalculable – a right wing supreme court for at least a generation and the loss or significant cut backs of social programs that benefit everyone, like food stamps, health care and SS. And I think it goes beyond that to the spirit of the nation. There will be losses in social justice and related issues. But all we hear about are the fucking e mails and if Hillary is elected an impeachment proceeding starting on January 21. The MSM continues to broadcast and host the Trump rallies and surrogates with little push back. Even left wing sites ( that I will not name) are loaded with anger to Hillary and pronounce how evil she is and we should all vote for guess who. And Comey? When did they buy him out? Thanks friend. Feeling depressed.
Hmm, not a lot of talk about winning the argument. Though if the goosed Latino turnout holds true for election day and the rumors of a more democratic electorate than pollsters counted are also the case…. maybe we’d see something yet.
Excellent summary of what awaits us if Paul Ryan gets to do this. Four days left to stop it.
Some other details. A minority can extort lots of things along the way to a narrow reconciliation vote. Blue Dogs (or the Freedom Caucus or the Tea Party) can hold out for more or less in the legislation). A representative with a wild hair can hold it up over an unrelated issue (a la Stupak). And that’s just in the House on the way across.
The Chair of the Senate Budget Committee can extort a commission on the deficit and debt just to allow it as reconciliation (also if he’s the 50th vote).
All sort of side deals are involved.
And by the way, cat food is now out of reach for seniors; the social media publicity means that cats are living so good now.
But that’s OK. Next time around seniors will still be angry enough to continue to vote GOP. [Facepalm]
A good point about vetoing reconciliation bills with a divided house.
I see how that happens when the same party controls the Presidency and the Senate, but not otherwise. And when the veto returns in the Senate, there is not enough votes to override.
One depends on defectors in the opposition party to make the override.