Stephen Harper, leader of the Canadian Conservative (Tory) Party, eked out a narrow minority win in Canada’s federal election last night. Harper’s Hicks won around 36% of the total vote, and 123 seats of the 308 up for grabs, with the former governing Liberals gaining 103, the left wing NDP 29, and the separatist Bloc 51 in the province of Quebec.
What now? A good summary by a veteran Canadian journalist, Anthony Westell:
“That’s not likely, but he [Harper] is the least qualified person to become prime minister in at least half a century: educated to MA level in one university; never served in a government or held an executive position in business, seldom travelled outside North America. He has promised to govern from the centre and should have no trouble surviving for a year or two, if only because the opposition would not dare outrage the public by forcing yet another election before he has had a fair chance. In fact, his most serious opposition may come from true believers of his own – backbenchers, social conservatives, neo-conservative economists and libertarians who believe the best government is the smallest government. They have toiled for years to gain power to steer Canada away from the centre and toward the right. How much slack will they cut Harper? ….. But we know at least that he’s a good politician, with killer instincts behind the choirboy’s shy smile. Just look what he did to Paul Martin. The Gomery report specifically cleared Martin of any responsibility for the sponsorship scandal a decade ago. But that did not deter Harper for a minute. He declared Martin, his government and the Liberal party to be corrupt and without the moral authority to govern. It was invention and a skeptical media would not have let him get away with it. Instead, the media cheered him on and actually helped him convince the country that Martin was not to be trusted. “
What happened?
Harper ran a well organized, tightly controlled and deceptive campaign, framing the race from the start as a time for change, painting the Liberals as corrupt. He seldom deviated from that core message, and kept tight control over the more radical neocons in his party, forbidding those candidates with extreme views from speaking to the press, with one of them even hiding in a kitchen to avoid the press who were asking too many questions.
Did it succeed?
Only partly. With a disorganized Liberal party running a sloppy campaign, and with the voters wishing to castigate the governing party for the corruption shown in several scandals, Harper was still unable to break through in any of the big 3 cities of Canada – he gained not one seat in Montreal, Vancouver or Toronto. His party has gained power with rural support; the street wise city dwellers did not buy his sanitized campaign. Instead, the bulk of Canadian voters – who are center-left in social terms and middle of the road in economic terms – 64% of them voted for the Liberals, NDP and Bloc.
Now what?
Now Harper has to deliver on his promises to Quebec. Expect fireworks, and another election within 12 months. In the meantime, Paul Martin has stepped down as a Liberal leader, and a new leader – untainted by scandal – will face Harper next time. Then it will be a true battle of neocons versus liberals, for the soul of Canada.
The result is foregone: Canadian history favors victory for toleration, liberal philosophy, and care for the underdogs in its society.