Something to remember tonight:
With the Clinton campaign now saying they will stay in the race even if they lose delegates in Texas, it’s worth putting into perspective just how difficult it would be for them to close Barack Obama’s lead in pledged delegates. For Clinton to pull ahead, she will need to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates. To keep that number from rising even higher, they of course need to win 57% of the delegates on Tuesday, which would mean getting at least 213 delegates to Obama’s 161 — a 52 delegate advantage. If they net anything below 52 delegates, they fall even further behind. This is the key number to keep in mind when watching the election returns.
Now, let’s look more closely at those delegates. Al Giordano has been very successful in predicting delegate counts so far in this process. Here are his last predictions for today.
Texas: Obama +28
Ohio: Clinton +7
Rhode Island: Clinton +5
Vermont: Obama +5
Giordano actually upgraded Clinton’s chances based on recent polls. Two days ago he was predicting that Obama would net three delegates out of Ohio even with a narrow loss in the popular vote.
Rather than make my own predictions, I predict that Giordano is not far off. Clinton could easily do worse in Ohio, but is unlikely to do much better. In fact, the icy weather in Ohio is going to be murder on her turnout models, as her base is both less motivated and more car bound. Clinton could also do worse in Rhode Island. I am not at all sure she is going to pull five delegates out of there.
Meanwhile, Texas has always been difficult for Clinton, delegate-wise. Giordano gives Obama 16 delegates from the primary portion of the vote and another 11 from the caucus portion. My guess is that he will get less from the primary and more from the caucus, but the 27 number seems conservatively realistic.
If Obama comes out of today voting with a net gain of 21 delegates, that should be the story. If the Clintons wish to go on to Pennsylvania, they can spin the popular vote (if they win it anywhere) as somehow important. It’s not. This is a race for delegates. If you want to know who had a better day, keep in mind that Clinton needs a net gain of 52 delegates just to stay where she is. She’s unlikely to get anywhere close to that.
