Robert Novak’s latest column does not destroy the career of any professional intelligence operatives, but it does speculate about the destruction of the GOP majorities in Congress. Since his main source in Lindsay Graham, Novak focuses on the Senate.
Rick Santorum remains far behind in Pennsylvania. Conrad Burns is in trouble in Montana. Jim Talent trails in Missouri. Mike DeWine is threatened by a noxious Republican atmosphere in Ohio. Lincoln Chafee is endangered in Democratic Rhode Island. Jon Kyl faces a surprisingly tough race in Arizona. Despite excellent candidates in Minnesota and Washington state, no Republican challenging for a Democratic-held Senate seat is in the lead. Thus, a six-seat takeover capturing the Senate is possible.
This is of special concern for Republicans because the third of Senate seats contested in 2006 is more favorable to their party than what will follow. The long-term outlook troubles Graham, who sees a bleak GOP outlook north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins in Maine and Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania may be the last Republican senators from their states. The rising Hispanic-American population not only has transformed California into a Democratic state; freshman Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar looks like the new political face of Colorado, and Arizona is no longer safe for Kyl conservatives.
These demographic changes suggest an end to the gradual political realignment that began in the late ’60s and produced consistent electoral success for Republicans.
We should add Virginia and Nevada to the list of potential pick-ups. George Allen is a buffoon, and that fact should occur to he majority of Virginians at some not too distant point. And Jack Carter is going to run an aggressive campaign in the rural parts of his state. I think he can pull off a giant upset. Nonetheless, the only race that I think we can safely call for the Democrats is the Bob Casey Jr./Ricky Santorum race. Santorum appears to be finished. I see no way for him to recover. He doesn’t even live here. I hope I am right in this analysis because I very much doubt we can get to 51 seats without taking Ricky out. Here’s my list of potential pick-ups, in order of likelihood.
1. Pennsylvania
2. Montana
3. Missouri
4. Ohio
5. Virginia
6. Arizona
7. Nevada
8. Rhode Island
We need to hold our seats in Minnesota and Washington, and get six out of those eight seats. That will give us a 51-49 advantage in the Senate. More importantly, we’ll see the departure of loathesome crooks Conrad Burns and Rick Santorum, meatheads George Allen and Jon Kyl, and worthless fools Jim Talent and Mike DeWine.
In 2004, I thought Kerry should have selected Bill Richardson as his running mate and campaigned aggressively in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona. I have always been a proponent of the southwest strategy. The Republicans are alienating hispanic voters at the very time that their numbers are changing the electoral make-up of the country.
