This is some seriously sloppy thinking:
Defenders of the idea of a filibuster on guns insist that the 2014 political calculations mean that there is little risk to their side if the legislation doesn’t make it. “You have to take it out of a national context and put it into a midterm viewpoint to make an adequate political assessment,” explained one senior Republican Senate strategist. “In the states that matter in 2014, and the states currently held by GOP Senators, there is not a lot of liability in defeating a gun control bill. How it is defeated is probably irrelevant.”
A look at the map proves that out. Of the 14 seats that Republicans are defending in 2014, just one — Maine — is in a state that President Obama won in 2012. Contrast that with five Democratic incumbents up in 2014 in states Mitt Romney won as well as two open seats in South Dakota and West Virginia where Romney prevailed, and you begin to see how the near-term politics may well not punish (and might even reward) those who put down a gun control law.
Why?
Well, look at this:
But, what’s good politics for Republicans in South Dakota or Nebraska or Mississippi is not necessarily a good thing for the GOP’s attempts to rebrand itself. Remember that expanded background checks have the support of roughly nine in ten Americans – a sort of no-brainer issue that typically guarantees congressional action of some sort.
When 90% of the public supports something, it’s unlikely that a majority opposes it in any state in the union. You can’t assume that the voters of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Mississippi are going to approve of a filibuster that kills universal background checks for gun purchases. There is no evidence for that. It is probably closer to the truth to argue that the voters in those states are sufficiently biased in favor of the Republicans that annoying them over gun legislation will not be enough to imperil Republican candidates there. In other words, Republicans might be able to get away with doing something unpopular, but they won’t be rewarded for it.
Filibustering gun control legislation will hurt Republicans in every district and state in the country. In many places, the pain will be minor, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t exist. The bill will get cloture and there will up and down votes on the legislation and many amendments to the legislation.
