Earlier today, Nancy wrote:
Trump’s hiring of [Stephen] Bannon and [Kellyanne] Conway isn’t just a signal to Republicans – it sends a message to all of us who have been watching this one closely. We’re not going to see anything new from Donald Trump. What we’ve been seeing is what we’ll continue to get.
I can understand why she wrote that. A lot of people are writing the same thing. The idea is that Trump could have pivoted into a more scripted, disciplined and reality-based candidate, but these hirings clearly demonstrate that he is not going to do any of those things. And, I think that’s correct.
But, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re not going to see anything new. What comes next probably is not going to be just more of the same. Before I explain, let me step back for a moment. The New York Times compiled a list during the primaries, which they still periodically update, of all the people who have been insulted by Trump on Twitter. It’s an astonishing list, especially when you consider that it leaves out all the insults that Trump has made with his mouth instead of his fingertips. But, if you peruse the list for any amount of time you’ll soon realize that Trump has kind of pivoted since he won the nomination. He’s not blasting away at Republicans anymore, at least not as regularly or with the same heat. Trump has clearly failed to consolidate the Republican Party behind him, but he’s also (mostly) made an effort not to exacerbate the rifts he caused when he was vying for the nomination. It’s been painful to watch him do a dance with Mitch McConnell and (especially) Paul Ryan, but they have made an uneasy peace. Since winning the nomination, Trump has mainly focused on blasting Hillary Clinton and the media, and the Republicans he’s attacked have been those who don’t support him.
The hiring of Breitbart’s Stephen Bannon is a sign that this period of half-hearted détente is coming to an end. Trump will most likely run just as hard (or nearly so) against the Republican Establishment as he runs against Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.
I agree with this unnamed source:
…Capitol Hill Republicans already disheartened by Trump’s scorched-earth campaign were apoplectic over the Wednesday morning shake-up.
“Breitbart has no credibility outside of the most extreme conservative wing of our party. Frankly, the same could be said of Kellyanne Conway,” one House member and close Ryan ally who has publicly endorsed Trump said in a text-message tirade.
“This would seem to signal that Trump is ready to go double-barrel against all of Washington, Republicans and Democrats alike,” the GOP lawmaker continued. “Breitbart takes a flamethrower to Washington and plays very loose with the facts. I would anticipate an even more bellicose, even less-connected-to-the-facts approach from the Trump campaign moving forward.”
Now, there are two possibilities. Here’s the first one:
Long-time Republican strategist John Feehery, who is also a columnist for The Hill, said he thought Conway was “a good hire” who could “bring some much-needed discipline” to Trump’s quest.
But he added, regarding Bannon’s elevation: “I know how it is going to be perceived on the Hill and among the leadership: it’s not gonna be perceived very well. Because Breitbart are nuts! They’re unhinged. They do stories that are not journalistically credible.”
Feehery added that if Trump were going to “run a Breitbart-type campaign, we are going to get 30 percent of the vote.”
But the second possibility is that Trump can be more effective by offering an undifferentiated condemnation of all of Washington.
In one particularly felicitous deal, Bannon’s fee included an early stake in “Seinfeld,” the residuals of which alone would turn out to be enough to make him wealthy.
Along the way, he developed a worldview remarkably in tune with what is now regarded as Trumpism: suspicious of free trade and liberal immigration policies, wary of military adventurism, and contemptuous of the old order.
Expect Trump to stop caring what Paul Ryan thinks and go after him as indistinct from Clinton on trade, immigration and military adventurism. He may or may not avoid making this critique personal by calling out Ryan by name, but he will certainly make the point clear that he’s running to destroy Ryan’s power within the Republican Party.
In other words, Trump has pivoted, but he is about to pivot again. And this time he is going to give up on patching together as much of the Republican Establishment as he can and just go after them without restraint.
This has one advantage. The other strategy was a sure loser. This new strategy is at least different, and it’s an acknowledgment of something I’ve been arguing for years now, that no Republican can win with the Bush/McCain/Romney coalition, and that the only hope for a Republican nominee is to reshape the electorate. For Trump to succeed, he needs to stop worrying about winning traditional Republicans and try to eat deeply into the Democratic coalition, and he can at least attempt to do this by getting to Clinton’s left on trade and foreign policy while carving out some of the George Wallace Democrats who are angry about job competition and immigration. By blasting the Republicans as just as bad as Clinton on these issues, he gets a little more credibility when he makes his pitch.
I don’t think it will work, but it’s saner than continuing down a path that is guaranteed to result in humiliation.
However, it also has a much higher risk of resulting in a landslide defeat that consumes the Republicans’ congressional majorities, because the GOP now stands to get attacked by all five presidential candidates (including Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and Evan Mcmullin).
It seems that the NC GOP already knows its going to lose a bunch of solid red counties in November.
does “party line changes” have a specific meaning or does it just mean assholish self-interested partisan decisions without consultation?
I can’t tell.
My reading is that those appointees where there are Republican majorities (or unanimity) on the county board of elections (even though some are nominally “non-partisan’) are instructed to use their institutional power to nullify the court decision.
Overwhelming enforcement was how the 1875 Mississippi plan worked to take power in Mississippi. And the federal government just stood by and let it happen for fear of insurrection. I fear we are back to that “heritage” in the Dixiecrats turned GOP. Assholish is just the first step; throwing around institutional power that opponents can’t keep up with because it is inconceivably unconstitutional is, I fear, the main element of surprise this year. But we have been warned about being the “realistic” community while the GOP rushes forward with nonsense.
I don’t know about you but I find it interesting that the NC GOP chair is Brad Woodhouse’s brother.
Dallas Woodhouse is the hired executive director, not the chair. Chair is Robin Hayes, the guy who destroyed towelmaker Cannon Mills and was NC-8 Congressman who was defeated by Larry Kissell, who was one of his laid off employees.
Thanks for identifying these players. Will have to do further reading.
Clearly, this wasn’t a problem as long as Breitbart mostly “played very loose with the facts” when attacking Dems.
I. Drink. Your. Tears.
It’s been my observation – admittedly not far-reaching or anywhere near complete – that most of what Breitbart does is play very fast and very loose with fact-yness in terms of attacking the Democrats or the so-called “left.” I am not aware of any major “flames” thrown at the R-Team. Not to say it hasn’t happened, but let’s get real. The big ticket “flames” have all been at Dems. And Breitbart throws mud, it sticks, even when their crooked, criminal covert ops are revealed and even result in convictions.
So flame away at the GOP. I’d like to see that in action. What I’ve mostly witnessed since this announcement is the usual chuckleheads in rightwing media (aka, most of the M$M) fawning over Breitbart and saying the usual “boys will be boys” bullshit. Always wrong Bloody Bill Kristol actually brayed about what a “good heart” Breitbart, himself, had. Yeah, right. Good hearted as long as he lied like a rug about some Democrat.
Hope the GOP enjoys this shit show cuz one way or another that’s what it’s gonna be.
You write:
Agreed. This is actually a very bold move. He is trying to form a coalition of disgusted Democrats, Republicans and Independents. My own take on the subject is that if he is successful in doing this…and I give him a very low chance of success due to the unprecedentedly unified opposition of the PermaGov media plus his own quite obvious personal failings…but if he is successful he will come at least close to winning. Almost all U.S citizens and their relatives are justifiably sick of the whole DC farce. Young, old, rich, poor, black, white and everybody in the middle. The only people who actually like what is going on are the hustlers who are making a living from it. Even the bureaucratic worker DC underlings hate the damned thing.
A coalition of the dissatisfied…if they all came out to the polls and voted for Trump, which I say again is not likely…would overwhelm the satisfied no matter whether that satisfaction stems from greed or the sheer, sheep-like stupidity and weakness one sees in masses of U.S. citizens. Add HRC’s growing list of negatives…which I personally think are based as much upon the grating sound of her voice as anything else…and you have an interesting next two months or so.
Watch.
AG
P.S., Do not discount the equal amount of disgust that the American public is now evincing towards the mass media in general. The lockstep, hysterical anti-Trump propaganda…justified or not…coming from all but the most radically right-wing media is opening many eyes that have heretofore been wide closed. Bet on it. When media like the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal agree about which presidential candidate they are going to hype? Scales begin to fall.
Watch.
Everyone hates a dentist who takes pictures of them while they’re under anesthesia, but it takes a special sort of sheep to prefer a cannibal with a hacksaw for their tooth extraction.
But if you are permanently anesthetized…as are all of the remaining believers in the PermaGov media…you are left with no choice at all. A cannibal with a hacksaw is one thing and a respectable looking mad scientist/Hannibal Lecter type with degrees from everywhere and required deep anesthesia even before you make the appointment is another. Neither choice is very good, but with the cannibal you can at least make a fight out of i.
Plus the inevitable third choice…you know, like in a three-dimensional world rather than a two-dimensional one peopled by stick-figure choices?
You can just say no.
To both.
Like dat.
Later…
AG
Yeah, but I’ve got a tooth root abscess that goes into the roof of my mouth and then to my neck, right near the base of my skull. There’s a real risk of it reaching my brain. I’m not a sheep, so I’ll just say neigh.
Wait. I’ve lost the analogy.
Hold your horses!!!
Thar’s sheep crossing the road.
The centrist road.
The only remaining question is…how many and in which direction?
AG
P.S. you write:
Maybe it’s reached your brain already?
Or…some other place?
No matter…what’s going to happen is going to happen no matter what we say.
Bet on it.
And that’s not an analogy.
It’s a prediction.
100% accurate.
Bet on it.
AG
Booman says “Wallace Democrats”…whom I thought were all now called “Republicans”. You say “disgusted Democrats”. Are they different? Your take on this please.
Uhh…I got news for you and Booman:
George Wallace is still dead.
The “Wallce Democrats”…the real ones, the ones who voted for Wallace and/or for his opponents…are also mostly dead, plus the ones who are left are well over 70. “Wallace Democrats” is a code word for southern racist Democrats, but not such a good one anymore because the whole society has so changed that the old racist stereotypes…racist against southern whites …no longer fit so well.
I am most certainly no racist, but I am definitely a disgusted Democrat. There are many of us…the Bernie workers, working class and middle class whites who work alongside of black and Latino people with no friction whatsoever, millions of sports fans who…50 or more years ago…might have rooted against black and Latino athletes no matter how good they were or on which team they played, but who now accept them as just regular folks doing a hard job very well. And there are millions more like them who are either disgusted Republicans…disgusted at the way the government has been run for the last 30 years or so…or equally disgusted Independents.
These people form is a voting bloc that has yet to be fully utilized by a national candidate. It’s going to happen eventually, and it won’t be by a DC insider the likes of HRC. Bet on it. Some will hold their nose and vote for her; some will hold their nose and… as a protest vote…vote for Trump, and some will just hold both their nose and their vote
Will Trump get most of them?
Some of them, but probably…hopefully…not all.
As the losing baseball teams always say, “Wait ’til next year!!!”
The next national election.
2018.
That will begin to tell the tale, and we won’t need no weatherman to tell us which way the wind is blowing.
Watch.
My own hope?
It will be blowing left.
Real left, not PermaGov left.
Like dat.
Later…
AG
Eh, I was an independent angry voter off and on for years, then I just registered as a Dem and have been voting that way generally ever since, whatever emotions I feel. Keep working for your dreams though.
Arthur, you’re an evangelist for Ron Paul. You’re not a leftist. Spare us the fakery.
There is nothing left of your brand of so-called “leftism,” centristfield…just memories of the New Deal ’30s. It’s been taken over by the totally centrist, totally corprate-owned Permanent Government.
There used to be a saying…”The greatest thing since sliced bread.”
That was before Wonder Bread. Before branding replaced content.
You? You and your DemRat cop-outs?
Like Wonder Bread compared to the FDR’s real leftist movement.
All packaging, no real nutrition.
Just empty filler.
You can’t live on that shit. It’s all empty air pockets and chemicals trying to imitate real food.
WTFU.
Liberals don’t respond to arrogant demands from Ron Paul acolytes. Why would we?
You write:
Why would you?
Good question.
Beyond the obvious question of why and how you could simultaneously seem to believe that you are a “liberal” and yet support a party that is owned and operated by forces that basically want to reduce all of humanity to a a state of fear-governed, minimum wage slavery, why would you?
Hmmmmm….
I really do not have a clue about why anyone…liberal, conservative, centrist or any other of the 7 political sexes…would think that another 8 years of corporate greed, electoral idiocy and international strife would be a good thing for the country.
I don’t understand why battered women stay with their mates. either.
Both positions stem from some sort of…fear…I guess. Fear of the unknown.
In FDR’s inaugural speech he said “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.”
He was halfway right/halfway wrong, because that statement validates at least one kind of fear, the fear of “fear itself.”
Me?
I strive for no fear.
Really.
This is not irrational braggadocio, just a statement of fact. I watch my back and I do what I must to survive…including the occasional surrender…but I neither fear the consequences of my actions nor do I fear the might of the multinational PermaGov under which I live.
I oppose the Permanent Government in all of its forms because I am no longer afraid of it, no longer afraid of the fear by which it governs.
You?
Later…
AG
Roosevelt in context.
First Inaugural Address (March 4, 1933):
State of the Union Address (January 4, 1935):
Here the great…real…liberal FDR sounds a great deal like Ron Paul to me…better said, but the same concepts.
You?
AG
Ron Paul’s vision of governance is so radically at odds with FDR’s vision of governance that it’s disgusting to see you attempt to attach yourself to Roosevelt quotes.
I don’t see it that way.
You do.
So it goes.
AG
Ah, the “Says You!” method of argumentation.
Says you.
AG
Race.
Trump’s applause lines, the statements in his speeches that get his followers to put their right arms up and stomp their feet, that allow Trump to bask in adulation are about race. His campaign took off when he called Mexicans rapists. They love it when he says he will deport American citizens that are Muslims.
Both appointments are members of the alt right
The other big applause lines are not ‘to the left on trade’, they are locking Clinton up (or shooting her!) and attacks on the media. The attacks on the media in particular have become more prominent lately. Brannon threw his own reporter under the bus when Trumps campaign manager grabbed her.
The main thrust will be race, with attacks on the lying media and calls to ‘lock her up’ as condiments.
It’s bad news for Republicans because there are going to be lots of right arms in the air, and probably a few beatings of reporters.
.
I agree. All this business about Trump being “to the left on trade” rings hollow to me. What I’ve witnessed is what you describe. Trump’s fans aren’t really paying attention to Trump’s economic policy, which is Trickle Down 3.0. Trickle Down has never worked, except to syphon more money from the downtrodden middle/working classes to the .001%, which includes Trump.
Trump’s trade “deals” won’t fly anyway, and they’re too vague to make much sense.
What riles up his fans are the xenophobic, racist, bigoted call-outs and chants to lock up Hillary or worse.
Anyone who pays the slightest bit of attention to really examine what Trump is calling for in terms of trade, economics, and so forth can see it’s not well thought out, and frankly, Trump doesn’t really care about it. Get real.
As you say, people aren’t supporting Trump for the protectionism. They’re supporting him for the racism. The protectionism serves only as “cover”, an excuse for supporting Trump so they don’t have to admit racism.
Well, the clown car has reached its destination…Breitbartville…Crazy Town.
This is an interesting thing Trump is trying. But it seems to me that it’s a zero sum game.
–>As he “gains” democrats, he loses republicans.
My own theory of Trump is the his biggest problem on election day may be that his toxic campaign message will actually motivate a large contingent to get out and VOTE AGAINST him. He’ going to be a voter turnout machine, and in the past higher turnout means more democrat votes. I don’t think he can “turn” enough democrats to compensate for the higher turnout.
You could be right. Time will tell but your speculation seems reasonable.
At this point, it seems to me that Trump doesn’t give a good goddamn about anything other than riling people up in one way or another. In hiring Breitbart, he’s certainly going to be able to say: Mission Accomplished!
As long as in turning out more people to vote against him he doesn’t inspire indies or republicans to split their ticket and vote R downballot.
Don’t discount voter suppression. The party line quote TarHeelDem posted above.
That Trump supporters and enablers are privately banking on a reverse Bradley effect; that their candidate is so loathsome that significant cohorts are unwilling to admit they will actually vote for him. That seems the unspoken if unrealistic belief behind the latest ‘skewed polls’ narrative. A startling admission, if so.
Well put. There may be mileage in a full on attack at the Washington consensus since it has wrought a lot if damage, but I think the five alarm assholery of Breitbart is going to blunt it. Of course it could also result in having to put down a revolt this winter.
“Against Washington”
Well, fine. But then who is the ordinary “independent” schmoe supposed to vote for? Anyone but their incumbent? That turns the Congress Dem, so clearly this is not a sincere “strategy”.
The useless media/punditry bleats “Washington is broken!” as though it broke itself, or was the victim of, say, a hurricane. The reality is never expressed, let alone explained. The “conservative” movement and its captured party the Repubs broke Washington.
The Repubs blocked the Dem majority in 2008. The Repubs have now controlled the Congress since 2010. THEY paralyzed the gub’mint. THEY wrecked its institutions. THEY gerrymandered themselves into ostensibly permanent control using a nationwide gerrymander strategy. Unless they are destroyed politically, nothing can ever be accomplished again. Repubo delende est.
This is the reality. Washington was intentionally broken by the party that has controlled the Congress for the past six years, and that filibustered all legislation for the two years previous to that.
But no one is saying this. No Dem explains the history of the past 8 years. No Dem explains that the Repub House is electorally illegitimate. No Dem explains the Repubs’ gerrymander scheme. No Dem explains that the Repub Congress must be destroyed for an election to have any positive effect. It’s all prez,prez,prez.
On would think with a sizable lead and what is looking to be almost a lay down on the 271 electoral votes needed that HRC or the somewhat hapless Kaine would start explaining reality to the rubes: the Repubs broke Washington. It’s not a hard case to make and has the added virtue of being true. Of course this assumes that the citizenry really is angry at “Broken Washington” and that this is not just another mental pose by the massively ignorant to justify their endless spite and pique…
Its true the GOP actually broke Washington but I can’t help but get upset at the pro-system world view of the Obama admin. I can’t ever be pleased with someone who is willing to sacrifice Americans to lift Chinese out of poverty.
Can you see NO benefit to Americans for the most populous nuclear nation in the world to have a growing middle class too?
Yes, there have been many injuries along the way but from a holistic perspective, world peace and climate change cooperation depends on a broader systemic view than a purely national one.
Improve the systems and decrease corruption and inequality so ALL can benefit even if it’s in fits and starts. The US will benefit as well.
Maybe so, but if you are the president of America you should put Americans first. The theory is fine but in practice it has been a failure for Americans under administrations of both parties. I am all for hitting pause until we can actually take care of those us who were hurt rather than more empty promises.
And frankly, China has been more troublesome since it got stronger and its middle class has pushed it toward democracy or internationalism not at all.
“…but it’s saner than continuing down a path that is guaranteed to result in humiliation.”
It’s the same path. Lewandowsky was let go for not trying to enforce mouth discipline. Had nothing to do with the message. Stone and Aisles advised mouth discipline. Had nothing to do with the message only the messenger. Manafort tried to keep Trumps mouth on message … and out of the twitterverse. The message itself remained the same. Breitbart clones will process the same message. Fortunately, they will not attempt to keep Trump’s mouth closed.
There will not be more credibility. No one will appreciate the subtle difference of not mentioning Ryan vs calling him a dorky looking granny starver. The Wallace Dems have either died or have already enthusiastically joined Trump and Co.
He will not get to the “left” on diplomacy because Trump has no plan of diplomacy. He has a locus of bad guys (leaders he doesn’t like) and locus of good guys (leaders he does like).
He can’t move to the left on trade. He has already declared himself to be a nativist protectioneer. He has already committed himself to blocking trade with Mexico, China and parts of Europe unless they kiss his ass. I understand that the “left” is fractured on many trade issues, but erecting walls ain’t part of any left that I’ve ever heard of.
It is becoming evident that there are not enough white, nationalist racists to elect a President. They couldn’t do it in 2008 or 2012 and they can’t do it now. Vague rumors and tales bazillions of shadowy WNR coming out in droves to support the white race and culture in 2016 are just that: rumors and tales.
My apologies to AG, but his existential crisis of the cockroaches coming out of the walls to win one for the Gipper is not going to happen. The Grand Alliance of disaffected Dems, pissed off R’s and self-righteously indignant I’s … isn’t there. The Great Orange One couldn’t organize a beer bust in a whore house sailors just off cruise.
It seems clear he envisions a much bigger American-led war on ISIS as well, so hardly a (leftist) non-adventurer.
I do feel that you’ve underestimated Der Trumper on the the whorehouse analogy, however—he’d absolutely find a way to defraud the drunken sailors!
So as I’ve pointed out patiently in parts of my nonblogging life, that rules out Trump as a “peace” or “anti-war” candidate. He really isn’t an isolationist in the sense of the paleocons. Those wanting isolationism should look elsewhere – I’m sure the Libertarians or Greens will be more than happy to oblige.
Trump Whorehouse
Hole-filled condoms and $10000 AZT pills.
Some names — Angela Merkel, for one — are on both lists.
No longer. She’s on the Trump ‘bad guy’ list from here on out. The alt right white supremacists consider her a white race traitor trying to turn Germany from majority white to majority minority.
white supremacists are now in charge
.
Especially liked this revealing comment on the ‘reformicon’ movement, such as it is:
The epitaph of movement conservatism.
Yours was good too but I was reading The dark history of Donald Trump’s rightwing revolt. I thought you had posted the link, sorry about that. So much delicious goodness today I got my browser tabs mixed up.
Yes, I read that this morning. Good article. The picture from 1959 shows how far we still have to go.
.
Interesting that the Trump campaign is run entirely as a top down enterprise. There’s so many chiefs crowded into the war room and so little infrastructure that it’s no wonder Trump will be using Breitbart as his messenger.
How are Bannon and Murdoch going to divvy up the headlines? Will war erupt between Murdoch and Bannon as the GOP realizes it has to push back? Having hard time visualizing Ailes walking the tight rope between Bannon & Murdoch.
Are either called “Republican Base Voters” or they are dead.
Digby has argued that the Democratic Party is doing just fine with working-class voters overall, and that the quadrennial angst about “can the Democrats attract white working class voters” is silly.
True, unless you define working class voters as necessarily white.
Its still the single largest section of the country and its troubling from a representative government standpoint if it is completely for 1 side.
How’d you get from “define working class voters as necessarily white” to “It[what?]s[sic] still the single largest section of the country”???
If you’re right, it’s almost enough to make me feel sorry for Mike Pence.
Almost.
#FreeMikePence
No force on God’s green earth could make me feel anything but disdain, contempt and revulsion for Mike Pence — thanks anyway.
The remainder of the campaign is going to be a preview of the congressional GOP’s message post-election, whether the GOP loses its House majority or not. Ryan (especially) and McConnell will be deposed if they don’t get with that program. Who’s the Freedom Caucus honcho ready to seize the GOP leadership and possibly the Speaker’s gavel?
PEW report
Can’t wrap my mind around the June and August numbers for Trump, but also recognize that there’s a lag time from events to when it impinges on the brains of voters.
There’s much food for thought in the report. A cursory review of the data from the 2000 through 2012 highlights why 2000 and 2004 were very close on election day and why it wasn’t close in 2008 and 2012. All of those elections set up far earlier than the top line horse race numbers indicated. It’s probably true in this election as well, but HRC is in a much weaker position at this point than the Democratic nominees in the past four election cycles. Fortunately for her, Trump’s numbers are in GHWB (’92) and Dole territory.
I’m still struck by the width of the variance that Nate Silver’s 538 model is generating off of the current polling.
I still believe that working to win the down-ticket in all 50 states will be what creates a Clinton landslide, if indeed she seeks institutional power and not just a mandate.
It is also the best way to ensure that there is a responsible legislative check on Clinton’s actions and not support for Republican proposals and obstruction on all else.
Also, Aetna is making sure that healthcare reform will still be a hot issue in this election. The $27 million man that runs Aetna is greedy and wants his merger so he can pad his compensation. And he wants moar profits. Watch the medical cost ratio limitations be under attack.
Would have to study Nate’s report in some depth before being able to make an educated comment wrt to the variance his model is generating.
Would need your definition of “landslide” before commenting on your take on the difference between “institutional power” and “mandate” in a “Clinton landslide.” What I can say is that winning by a large margin in a campaign without substance is fleeting. The “lesser evil,” regardless if viewed from the right or left, merely guarantees a continuation of center right public policies that are out of step with the lives of the vast majority of Americans.
The ACA/healthcare reform is looking to set up as a hot issue after this election cycle. As preserving the ACA will be the Democratic strategy and offering nothing other destroy the ACA as the GOP platform, this won’t get resolved anytime soon and the whole damn health care issue will continue to fester.
Landslide is 10% margin in popular vote, say 55%-45% in a two-way race or better.
Mandate is a preponderance of public sentiment that sways Congress or a legislature by the pressure it puts on them.
Institutional power is the sentiment within the Congress or legislature that allows them to either pass or buck a mandate.
That is why Clinton has been very careful not to construct a mandate for anything, and sends conflicting messaging on positions.
By definition the winner’s position is center of the public sentiment; otherwise they would not have won. How those policies shake out as left or right depend on the composition of the Congress and the intensity of engagement of the public. Policies can be out of step with the public so long as the public has not intense feelings that spur action. And “out of step with the vast majority of Americans’ tends to be a rhetorical point rather than a measurable position on particular issues.
Health insurers will not let the ACA go on as business as usual. What Congress does with that depends very much on who is in Congress, who is the majority, and who chairs committees. Costs are going up and CEOs in the health care system want moar profits and higher compensation, the public be damned. The public might finally wake up to that contempt.
That’s what I thought you meant by “landslide.” I would define it more narrowly because a strong win at the top of the ticket can be personality driven and ultimately not that important. Nixon (’72) and Reagan (’84) landslide wins didn’t alter the power in Congress and both Nixon and Reagan quickly lost standing with the general public after their landslide wins and were less able to push their agenda in their second terms.
The data-set on this is small, but there hasn’t been an open seat presidential election that was a landslide since 1952. That one flipped the WH, House (22 seats), and Senate (2 seats). (It was reversed two years later because GOP policies aren’t broadly popular.) Ike’s ’56 “landslide” win was bigger than ’52, but Democrats picked up two seats in each house. But ’58 was huge in both houses for Democrats. The one before that was in 1932.
’64 was a huge win for LBJ (Goldwater was horrible and we can’t discount a JFK sympathy factor in it). Democrats had strong gains in the House and a couple of Senate seats, but Democratic majorities in both houses were so strong that the opportunities for gains were limited (and those gains were also lost in ’66). As with FDR, LBJ made effective use of all that power for domestic policies and a disaster in Vietnam (from which the Democratic Party still has yet to recover from).
She’s in a position similar to that of Nixon in ’60 (high personal unfavorables and successor to a two-term popular POTUS that has incurred large losses in the prior midterm election). Except she’s running against a McCarthy/Thurmond ticket and there’s no JFK in the race.
Nate’s model has excessive uncertainty. In 2012+2008 I think he missed only one state but according to his probs he should have missed something like 10. Not sure why it’s wrong. Something’s also wrong with nowcast vs. polls-only, which should be fairly different at this point (because polls can change) but which are almost identical.
His model doesn’t have the uncertainty. The polls this year have the uncertainty. The spread in the variance is coming from random selection of variables driven by the comparison of the polling in previous elections as compared to this election AND the fact that despite the interest this year we are still looking at August’s polls. Expectations are that the variance will narrow as we approach election day.
Nate gives significant weight to bayesian priors in his model. More than the other guys, although (apparently) less than what he had predicted in 2012. I think it’s noteworthy that Nate Cohn, Drew Linzer, Sam Wang, and Nate have almost identical topline predictions. Wang is the most “pessimistic” on the state level, largely on the strength on some outdated polling. But his model relies entirely on polling, plus some time-dependent regression.
Silver and Linzer use demographic and other “special sauce” data and Linzer seemed to perform better w/re to the correct result, at higher certainty, than Silver did. But the n=1 and it’s clear that everyone tweaks their models every time around. It would be interesting if it were a truly transparent process so that new models could be compared openly to previous ones.
In state polls, Clinton running 5.8 percentage points ahead of Obama 2012
Larry Sabato has Clinton taking 348 EVs.
80 days left and things could change but the odds are Trump is going down to defeat and dragging the GOP with him.
or on people never lie about a bad thing that happened to them; so, such claims must always be believed as true.
the Guardian — Ryan Lochte made up robbery story after Rio gas station altercation – reports
Surely someone can reconstitute this into another Putin diabolical plot.
I think we may finally be on the verge of a true split in the Republican Party; one that cannot be patched over. Trump will fire up the crazies in a way that leaves them irreconcilably divided from the big moneyed interests that have always, until now, been pulling the levers. From here, either we get two right-of-center parties battling for dominance over each other while falling to ineffectual status against Democrats or we’ll see the Democratic tent broaden to include the moneyed interests while also continuing to include progressives. Either way, I think we’ll soon be sticking a fork in the GOP, at least for a time. Think of the GOP’s decline in California as a template. Their ability to compete at various levels of government will soon be in free-fall. The crazies will have the money and the big boys will have the loot. Either one on its own will be fucked.
On the statue of naked, gelded Trump which appeared in Union Square and was subsequently removed:
No longer there but still really love NYC.