Senator Barbara Boxer announcement that she will not be a candidate for reelection in 2016 wasn’t more or less expected. She was first elected to the Senate in 1992, replacing the then retiring Senator Alan Cranston, first elected in 1968. Thus, for forty-eight years, a real Democrat has held this CA Senate seat. The other Senate seat hasn’t been less stable and held by several Republicans and the conservative Democrat Feinstein. As California has trended more Democratic in the past thirty odd years, there is no reason why Boxer’s successor should be one iota more conservative than she is.
(Disclosure: I’ve voted for Boxer in almost all her races, including her first and the only one that she lost.)
Lots of names are being floated to succeed Boxer:
Rep. Xavier Becerra
Treasurer John Chiang
Rep. John Garamendi
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (publicly announced that he’s not running)
Former Rep. Jane Harman
Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones
Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom
Secretary of State Alex Padilla
Rep. Raul Ruíz
Rep. Loretta Sanchez
Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg (reportedly pressed the “unlike button.”)
Rep. Jackie Speier
Billionaire Tom Steyer
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa
Former Controller Steve Westly
A long, mostly male, list of higher profile CA Democrats and doesn’t include the highest profile female Democratic politician, Kamala Harris. However, on the propensity of California voters to choose well and long for this Senate seat, how do these potential candidates stack up?
On the issues and gender, there is but one that lines up almost perfectly with Boxer. That’s Congressional Representative Jackie Spier. Her tenure in elective office began in 1980 when she won a seat on the San Mateo Board of Supervisors. From there to the CA Assembly and then the CA Senate. It was only in 2008 that she won a Congressional race for the seat once held by Leo Ryan. (Jackie was on Ryan’s delegation to the People’s Temple and was shot four times at the Kaituma airstrip.) Spier would make a fine Senator, but unfortunately, her statewide name recognition isn’t high and she’s not the strongest of campaigners outside her home district. And in 2016 she’ll be 66 years old.
An equally good fit and deserving of a promotion is Xavier Becerra. A SoCal Latino could be a welcome change. At age 58 he could be expected to serve at least two and up to four terms. He would be my first choice, but he would have to give up his House seat and is likely to be squeezed out by those with more money and higher name recognition.
John Garmendi (71) and Jane Harmon (71) (yuck) are too old to be practical. Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa will be slightly younger at 63, but other than decent campaign chops, he doesn’t have a strong record to run on.
At the other end of the age range are three talented politicians that have time to wait and build a bigger base and longer record: Garcetti, Padilla, and Ruiz. That leaves:
Treasurer John Chiang
Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones
Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom
Rep. Loretta Sanchez
Billionaire Tom Steyer
Former Controller Steve Westly
None of these potential candidates are without positive attributes, and none are particularly appealing for this tume in history. At the risk of being somewhat selfish, John Chiang was an excellent controller and was only elected Treasurer last year. As long as he’s competent in this position, he could expect to remain in that office until 2022. Running for a higher profile office so soon after his election is also probably risky.
As a member of the “Blue Dog Coalition,” Sanchez falls too far short of a liberal standard for this Senate seat. (Maybe she can wait for Feinstein to retire in 2018.) As for Steyer and Westly, California voters tend to reject wealthy candidates for high office that have no or limited experience in elective office. (Is Carly Firorina itching to have another go at this Senate seat, or does she hitch a ride in the GOP POTUS clown car?)
Jones and Newsom ran equally strong in their 2014 statewide reelection contests – 57% of the vote. However, wouldn’t read too much into that as the CA 2014 statewide general election races were essentially a Democrat, mostly incumbents, against an unimpressive Republican. Jerry Brown at the top of the ticket received 60% of the vote. Newsom isn’t quite the empty suit his detractors portray him as, but he hasn’t made his political fortunes on his own. He is a product of the SF Democratic machine. Politically, I’d say that he straddles the line between Pelosi and Feinstein, but was also an early supporter of same sex marriage and marijuana legalization.
Steyer, Jones, and Newsom all strike me as retrograde choices. Therefore, at this time, I’m indifferent to this line-up.