Hillary Clinton has a current lead of 39,000 in Indiana.
Here’s the outstanding vote.
3% in Indianapolis. That’s roughly 18,000 votes. At 67%-33% Obama, it should break 12,000-6,000. That puts her lead at about 33,000.
11% in Hamilton County. That’s about 4,500 votes. At 60%-40% Obama, it should break 2,700-1,800. That puts her lead at roughly 32,000.
57% of Monroe County (Indiana U.). That’s about 12,000 votes. At 66%-34% Obama, it should break about 8,000-4,000. That puts her lead at 28,000.
I think turnout in Lake County will be about 125,000. Here’s how that translates:
Lake County, 125,000 votes
Obama 70%: Obama 87500, Clinton 37500= 50,000
Obama 67%: Obama 83750, Clinton 41250= 42,500
Obama 64%: Obama 80000 Clinton 45000= 35,000
Obama 61%: Obama 76250 Clinton 48750= 27,500
If Obama can win Lake County with about 64% of the vote, he will win Indiana. At 61%, it’s a tie.
