I agree with Charles Pierce that a Joe Biden candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination will badly divide the left. I agree that one of the main bones of contention will be Biden’s extensive record in Congress, particularly in the latter two decades of his career as a senator from Delaware. I agree that Biden will get torn up over his handling of Anita Hill’s testimony during the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings. I agree that he’ll be dragged across some of the same well-raked coals used to roast Hillary Clinton, like the 1994 crime bill and the war in Iraq. I even agree that by generation, race and gender, Biden will not satisfy that thirst many have for a new kind of leadership. But that’s where my agreement with Pierce ends.
First, I don’t think it’s a terrible idea for Biden to seek the nomination. Second, it’s a total exaggeration to declare that he “has a track record that puts him on the wrong side of every issue that currently energizes his political party.” Third, I think his performance as a presidential candidate in 1988 and in 2008 is almost completely irrelevant now in light of his performance as a candidate for vice-president. Fourth, I believe it’s tremendously inaccurate to suggest that Biden’s appeal is limited to being “a beloved figure among the pundit class, as well as among many of the old-line money people who currently are trembling at new forces that they do not understand.” In truth, Joe Biden is beloved figure period, which is probably his best argument for being the nominee.
As I wrote yesterday, the Democrats should have the opportunity to win a landslide election in 2020 reminiscent of 1932, 1972, or 1984. But to accomplish that, they’ll need the GOP to continue its headlong charge into the threshing blades, and they’ll need a candidate who is beloved (or, at least, widely trusted) by most of the country. Joe Biden currently fits that bill better than anyone else that is reported to be in the running, and yes part of that is his popularity with the pundit class.
But it’s not just the pundit class, and it’s not just among establishment Republicans. Joe Biden is immensely popular among mainstream Democratic voters, which is why he has the early lead in the polls. Yes, it’s true that early polls are heavily influenced by name recognition, but people certainly are familiar with Bernie Sanders. Biden leads him 30 percent to 14 percent in the most recent CNN poll. No one else is in double figures.
It’s not hard to surmise that Biden has a lot of support from people who strongly approve of Barack Obama’s performance as president, meaning that he can count on getting a lot of votes from the black community. His close friendship with Obama and his loyal record of service in his administration is going to mean a lot more than his votes as a senator in the 1990’s.
He may not be the right person for the times. He could be just a bit too old. He could be out of step with the Democratic primary voter. But he could also be the exact kind of figure that the country could really rally around in a general election matchup against whatever smoking husk of a party the Democrats will face in 2020.
If nothing else, he should earned enough respect to have the right to make a run without being dismissed as nothing more than a retread. And I am confident that most Democrats will give him that respect even if he cannot ultimately persuade them to give him the nomination.
Sorry, but Biden is too old to run. So is Bernie, although I love him dearly. Also Hillary. It is time for a younger set of candidates. I am 65, but I still think younger candidates would be best.
How do you feel about Elizabeth Warren?
I feel the same way about Elizabeth Warren, Biden, Sanders or anyone else over 65 years of age.
I want a candidate from a younger generation who’s grown up in a different environment and who’s closer to the under-30’s in spirit as well as age.
In the abstract, I would prefer that too, however Elizabeth Warren sure has a lot of fighting spirit and progressive policy in her. Not that she is my preferred candidate at this stage, as I don’t have one, but I am glad she is in the mix.
Elizabeth Warren is borderline age-wise, but comes across as more vibrant, better informed, with thoughtful policy prescriptions. I would not rule her out.
I agree completely. There is something much more “youthful” about her than I would have expected for someone turning 70 in less than 6 months.
If he runs, he’ll fold just like he did the last two times. Love him or not, he can’t take a punch.
Only way Biden feasible. Say you need experienced Washington hand to clean up the huge Trump/GOP mess. Recognize his age and pledge to serve one term with a younger, new generation VP. Combine with support from Dem House and Senate and won’t suffer from Lame Duckitis.
R
I love Joe Biden. I say that recognizing his many flaws (having, inter alia, lived through the Kinnock plagiarism scandal). Perhaps that comes from being a fellow son of the Old Sod.
I agree he is too old. But I do think he could go toe-to-toe with Trump in a debate and thrash him. Without the unfair complications Hillary had to suffer.
He would need a second fiddle from the new wing, though. The torch is beginning to burn to the wick.
This.
I loves Biden. Supported and voted for him during both his previous runs. I agree he’d beat the crap out of the Popular Vote Loser in any debate.
But, I agree, too old.
I disagree that it would “badly divide the left”. That’s based on….nothing. Sheesh, our feckless, corporate media loves nothing more than to report DEMS IN DISARRAY! Stop giving them fodder.
Booman, I think you have a couple of extra words in this phrase:
“in light of his performance as a candidate for vice-president”
clearly not a candidate for VP.
he was twice a candidate for veep.
Nobody votes for the VP. They vote for the President.
Except that is not entirely true. People more commonly vote against veeps, like Palin or Quayle, that they see as unqualified. But good veep choices can give people comfort about a ticket that they would otherwise lack. In our partisan age, it’s less important that veeps bring their own fans, but that is a factor, too. They can help unite a divided party. They can give a newcomer credit with the establishment.
When people vote for president, their ticket mate is part of the equation.
Reassurance was part of why Biden became Obama’s running mate, wasn’t it? Pairing the older, more experienced man with the less experienced candidate?
Hi,
The real problem with Biden is his record for the last 2 decades in the Senate. The senator from MBNA needs to go out to pasture now. The 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act should disqualify him forever let alone Anita Hill.
Bille
Biden gets plenty of respect from me. I’m a believer in the big tent party. But his campaign will die in California, if not sooner.
I haven’t seen anything indicating Biden outperforms a generic Democrat and have no reason to think he’d provide a particularly strong win. He’d be vulnerable to troll-fueled attacks from the left because he did a couple of things like the Bankruptcy deform and light vetting of Thomas which are quite unpopular with almost all Democratic voters today. I find it telling that the from-the-left (probable) trolling is focusing on O’Rourke, Harris, and even Gillibrand over Biden even though Biden is a much bigger target. Those who pay the trolls seem to think Biden isn’t much of a threat.
In comparison to Sanders, Biden beats the heck out of him in the Democratic preference poll but they have very similar results in matchups with Trump. My take on that is that Biden leads Sanders among Democrats because a lot of Democrats were not happy with the divisive 2016 primary, but when it comes to general campaign against Trump, it won’t matter much who we nominate.
“but when it comes to general campaign against Trump, it won’t matter much who we nominate. “
That’s what you said 2016. Or are you still in denial about that election?
I adore Joe Biden, but as I live and breathe he gives the most boring speeches in history. I agree…DOA by California. People can say they support him based on name recognition and his ability as VP, but the minute they hear him speak, they’ll change the channel.
His close friendship with Obama and his loyal record of service in his administration is going to mean a lot more than his votes as a senator in the 1990’s.
Wouldn’t the fact that President Obama and his allies were not at all supportive of Biden in 2016 disprove this theory?
One example of why Biden’s old votes matter now is that as late as 2012, he continued to proudly defended the bankruptcy act and his role in it. No doubt he feels the same way today. Lefties like me might be inclined to forgive him, but he ain’t asking for it. Another reason to want him to sit this out is a growing coalition of Third Way and No Labels conservadems and Frum repub types that are looking to flex their muscle and money with Democrats this primary. I don’t yet know how big a force they’ll be, but Biden would be a good match for them. The future Democratic party got off to a good start this year. Biden is a step backward.
He’s still telling Millennials to “suck it up.” See:
http://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-says-millennials-dont-have-it-tough-780348
He only polls so high because people have no clue about his record.
I totally think he should compete for the nomination for all the reasons you mention but I also think his principal use will be to defang a Republican opponent during the primary period whether that is Trump or, more likely, some other GOP “moderate” candidate like Kasich. (I think Pence is a nullity even in the GOP.)
But, at some point, he should bow out to whoever is surging behind him. The point is to make it clear the Democrats are the party of competence and good governance unlike the GOP, the party of corruption and division.
OTOH, I would definitely vote for him if he was nominated (D’uh!)
I’ll take Biden seriously when he makes it past Iowa. Until then, he’s not much better a candidate than I am.
I have no problem with Biden running, and I don’t think he’d divide the party at all, however I have serious disagreements with Booman’s analysis.
First, polls at this stage are almost entirely based on name recognition. Biden is a reasonably well liked, retired V.P. being ranked against a couple of dozen potential candidates, only one of whom has even announced at this point. Support for any of these candidates is extremely soft: Would I vote for Biden or Harris or Warren or Booker or O’Rourke? Yes. I would vote for any of them. This is the stage where most people are ruling out unacceptable candidates (for example a 76 year old, Wall St. billionaire, former Republican mayor of New York), not declaring intentions to support anyone in particular.
And Biden’s popularity will drop the day he begins campaigning, just as it did for Clinton.
Second, I have serious questions about any candidate who thinks he’s the only one who can defeat Trump, as Biden reportedly does. It’s a complete misreading of the Blue Wave that swept across the country last November and its a disturbing echo of Trump’s “Only I can fix it” quote. Its almost disqualifying that a man who would be 78 years old the day he took office can’t imagine anyone else in the party being prepared for the job.
Third, I completely disagree with the argument you made yesterday. Biden is an mainstream establishment candidate, well liked by Democrats, but not exactly a superstar. I’d expect him to do reasonably well in a good year, but not exceptionally so. I’ve seen no evidence that he will inspire millions of new voters to come to the polls, which is what is needed to win a landslide election. If Biden wins in a landslide in 2020, any Democrat would.
I could see him winning against a fragmented field, actually. At least, I wouldn’t dismiss his likelihood of success at this point.