I don’t have a prediction for the outcome of the South Carolina Republican presidential primary. (And I don’t think the results will matter much. Given Romney’s financial, organizational and endorsement advantages, it’s hard to envision any of the other candidates overtaking him for the nomination.) But I do have a prediction for America’s political pundits: in the coming weeks they’ll rediscover the 1988 Democratic presidential race.
Why 1988? Because like the Democrats in 1988, the 2012 Republican Party is on the verge of nominating a “moderate”, technocratic governor from Massachusetts (Romney now, Michael Dukakis then). And like the 1988 Democrats, Republicans have an experienced challenger (Paul now, Jesse Jackson then) who represents an important faction of the party base–a faction that is intensely loyal to its candidate.
Like Jackson, Rep. Paul has run for president before. Like Jackson, Paul has both solidified and expanded the base of voters that supported him four years earlier. Like Jackson, Paul could cripple the party’s nominee by refusing to endorse him or by running a third party campaign. Like Jackson, Paul’s supporters give him the power to stay in the race right up to the convention (even if Romney has it locked up long before then). Like Jackson, Paul has party insiders asking “what does he really want”?
When the pundits refresh their memories of 1988, they’ll see that Rev. Jackson won about 30% of the overall popular vote, nearly 30% of the delegates, and won 9 states (plus Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia) outright. After the Michigan caucuses on March 26, in which Jackson won 55% of the vote in a three way race with Dukakis and Dick Gephardt, Jackson (briefly) held an overall lead in delegates.
When Dukakis retook the lead, the question of the day became, “What does Jesse want?”. The answer was, basically, power and respect. From his negotiations with Dukakis and the DNC, Rev. Jackson won a prime speaking slot at the convention, changes in the party’s platform, a role in the fall presidential campaign, and changes in the party’s nomination rules.
The question for Mitt Romney and the Republican Party may well soon be–if it isn’t already–“What does Ron want?”. Romney’s campaign (and its totally-separate-and-not-coordinating-at-all SuperPAC) have, noticeably, avoided attacking Rep. Paul. In the coming weeks and months we’ll find out whether that’s enough to keep Paul in the Republican Party. Or whether Ron Paul decides that he and his followers can win more power and respect by leaving the Republican Party and running a third party presidential race this fall.
Cross-posted at http://masscommons.wordpress.com/.