If anyone is perfectly positioned for the New Hampshire primary, it’s Amy Klobuchar. As Ryan Lizza notes, “she benefits from very low expectations, so if she places ahead of any of the top four candidates — Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden and Warren—she will be able to claim a kind of victory.” Despite this, there’s a palpable buzz around her campaign and the press on the ground seems unanimous that she’s surging at just the right time. She got a further boost by winning the early reporting precincts of Millville and Hart’s Location. It’s just hard to envision her having a disappointing night. Lizza believes it’s possible that she could win, which would really shake up the race.
As for the rest, only Biden seems to be in a position to boast about something less than victory. As the other candidates were hosting last minute rallies numbering in the thousands, Biden was holding a meeting in a Manchester church. The media coverage of his campaign reads more like a dirge than dispassionate analysis. His problem is that this negativity might cause the limited support he actually has to collapse and give him a truly embarrassing result. Yet, the flip side is that everyone is preparing to write his obituary tonight, and a second or third place finish will exceed expectations and make him seem like the Comeback Kid. He’s stronger than people think going forward into the more diverse electorates to come, but Michael Bloomberg is eating into his black support now and Buttigieg and perhaps Klobuchar (after tonight) could eat into his moderate vote.
Most analysts believe that Bernie Sanders will get the most votes in New Hampshire, possibly by a comfortable margin. He was denied a clear and uncontested win in Iowa, so getting a first place result is important to him. Anything less will produce negative press and suppress the narrative he wants to create that he’s an unstoppable juggernaut. Yet, in truth, his campaign will continue regardless of the result and maintain enough strength to win at least some delegates in nearly every contest. So, in that sense, nothing is life or death for him tonight.
I can’t say the same for Pete Buttigieg. He’s perceived as the winner of the Iowa caucuses where he most definitely exceeded expectations. He’s seen a boost in his polls as a result, so he has some real momentum. He’s been drawing large crowds in New Hampshire and he’s well-financed. He could weather a second place finish in New Hampshire, which would probably make he and Sanders the top finishers in the first two contests. If he can go two-for-two in Iowa and New Hampshire, that’s the best he could have possibly done. But he’s currently getting virtually no support from black voters, and it’s not clear when he can win another primary or caucus. If he comes in third or worse, it really could spell the end of his campaign.
Elizabeth Warren is harder to gauge. She seems likely to come in in third or fourth place, with fifth not out of the question. None of these would be good news for her campaign. A second place finish would give her a nice narrative, and third would leave her in about the same place she was after Iowa. A good night for her might be measured less on how she does than on how she can potentially benefit from the misfortune of others. If Sanders underperforms, perhaps more of the left will give her campaign a look. If Klobuchar flames out, she could wind up the last woman in the race. If Buttigieg disappoints, then maybe she can get more attention from the press. And if Biden bombs, perhaps she can take his place as the candidate most likely to unite the party. As long as she doesn’t trail the pack tonight, she should be able to spin a nice story about how she is strengthened by the result.
The one thing that seems clear is that fifth place is the thing to avoid. Buttigieg seems like the candidate who most needs to win. Klobuchar is the one who most needs to break into the top three. There’s less at stake for the others, but fifth place would badly weaken all of them and possibly finish Warren off.
So, tonight I’ll be less interested in who wins than in the order in which people finish.
I hate Amy Klobochar.
A few years ago in the Obama era my sister went to Asia for a school exchange. My parents, being born poor Latinos in the early 50s, didn’t have passports and began the process of getting them. My mother having grown up in a more urban poor area got hers. My father being from a rural area originally had a number of issues. Concerned because any parent would be concerned and c’mon Latino parents there’s nothing they wont do to help their kids after constantly telling them what to do, contacted the senator’s office for help. They have lived in Greater MN for 45 years.
And Klobuchar told them to pound sand. Nothing they could do, would have to go through the process, goodbye.
They called Franken. Franken worked with them on getting good communications with the fed and on figuring out what documents could be used to fill in the holes. They assured my parents that if something did happen to my sister they would get them to the country no matter what.
In the end, my father got his passport, my sister had a great time and no one needed to do any emergency travel.
I will vote for Amy Klobuchar over Donald Trump. But she is a liar when she says she has empathy or understanding. I have no trouble at all believing she is cruel to her staff or harsh to anyone under her station. She is very much a Karen.
that kind of stuff is one of the huge advantages of incumbency, if the rep is good at it. My late mom’s district was represented by a pretty awful Republican who hung on for a long time as his district became more and more democratic, and I’m sure his strong constituent services helped. the one time she called him for some kind of payment that was hung up, he made it happen.
Franken was always known to have good constituent services. Its part of the reason he won by 10 points in 2014 and had no serious challengers lined up for 2020.
As of this writing, Sanders might eke out a victory, assuming he weathers a surge by Buttigieg as the remaining vote is counted.(68% counted so far). Klobuchar outperformed expectations yet again. Some momentum for the Midwesterners. Whether it lasts? We’ll see. Warren and Biden look like they’re running on fumes. Steyer should drop out but won’t (there were rumors floating around he would). Gabbard should drop out. Are there any places to surf in any of the Super Tuesday states? I guess she’d show up for that. Bennet’s dropped out. Patrick is dropping out. Yang dropped out. Bloomberg is a dark horse. We’ll see how he does at the next debate, and more importantly on Super Tuesday. Buckle up, folks. It’s gonna be a wild ride.
I just don’t understand the Buttigieg surge. Does anyone think he could actually beat Trump?
I’m not as interested in the finishing order as I am in the split between the progressive Sanders, Warren, Steyer wing vs the the centrist Biden, Klobucher, Buttigieg wing. Looks like the centrist total is significantly higher than the progressive total, at least in New Hampshire.