I don’t know what Donald Trump’s internal polling is showing, but insiders on his campaign, including those willing to spill dirt to anti-Trump outlet The Bulwark, are saying they think they will win. Yet, they also noticed with some alarm that, on Sunday, their candidate acted like he believes he will lose. This was especially the case at his first campaign stop in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, where Trump seemed to be despondent and in full-blown blame game, as he excoriated pollsters and said he wouldn’t mind if an assassin’s bullet killed a member of the assembled press instead of him.
He toned it down a lot for later appearances in North Carolina and Georgia, so much so that his performances lacked energy. He really seems to be limping to the finish line, while the Harris-Walz campaign appears vibrant and confident. There’s more to this than just my perceptions. If there’s any late movement in the polls and especially in the betting markets, it’s headed Harris’s way. All the important states are still polling within the margin of error, but Harris is in a slightly better position in the critical blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. If she holds those and wins the Omaha, Nebraska congressional district, she doesn’t need to win anywhere else. Everyone, on both sides, seems to think she’s got a real shot at North Carolina, too, which is why Trump is spending time there every day in the home stretch. Harris seems most concerned about Michigan and Pennsylvania.
What has me most concerned is that it looks like the Republicans have really succeeded in mobilizing their base in Republican counties, as reflected in the early vote in many states. The rural areas of Georgia and Nevada in particular have me spooked, even though neither state is a must-have for Harris. Offsetting this are indications of late deciders moving to Harris, which seems right to me both because of the general tenor of the campaign since Trump’s appearance at Madison Square Garden and because I think she’s succeeded in being more of a change candidate than Trump.
I’m not putting any stock in Ann Selzer’s final poll out of Iowa that shows Harris winning that state. Could she be right? I suppose so. She has a pretty strong record for being accurate even when she’s an outlier. But for now I’m treating it as an outlier. If there’s anything in her internals that I have some hope is correct it’s that women over 65 are voting heavily against Trump. This could be more pronounced in Iowa than in other places because Iowa has adopted one of the most restrictive abortion bans in the country, and without heavy investment in messaging from the Trump campaign to counteract this, maybe it’s really having a huge effect. If so, I’d expect something similar, but smaller to show up in the upper Midwest battleground states, including Pennsylvania, where Trump has invested in getting his message out.
I do think Harris has an advantage on the ground. Here in Pennsylvania, the ground game is outstanding, and there’s no question it’s adding numbers to her column. I have first hand reports on this because CabinGirl spent Saturday and Sunday knocking doors for the campaign, and they’re already done with their first go-round and hitting doors for the second time. They are squeezing every last drop of juice out of the fruit and leaving nothing on the field, while the Trump field operation is mostly invisible, at least here in the eastern part of the state.
I’ll also say, as a former county organizer for ACORN in neighboring Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, that their walk lists are incredible. They have plenty of independents and some Republicans on their lists, and yet the door-knockers are encountering almost no solid Trumpers. And, believe me, there are plenty of those in these parts even if they’re badly outnumbered. This shows me the Harris campaign knows who to approach in a way that wasn’t even possible when I was compiling walk lists in 2004.
These things give me optimism.
Now is not the time to let up. I would tell you if I was confident in a Harris win. I am not. I am more hopeful that I was in early October, but this really could come down to an impossibly small number of votes in a single state, so don’t just sit there reading this. Find a way to help push Harris over the line.
