Here’s a thread to discuss the election returns.
Nevada turned out to be close. I wasn’t sure if it really would be, or who would win. Seems like the polls were accurate. I wouldn’t argue that it’s in any way fair, but this was probably Sanders’s last chance to kick in the door of the Establishment and actually go to the convention with enough delegates to win. At best, now, he might slog it out and pile up about half the delegates. That won’t be enough, but his momentum is shot and it won’t get better after South Carolina. In fact, in his concession speech he said, “It’s on to Super Tuesday,” which was basically a concession that no one should look for any salvation out of South Carolina.
Based on exit polls, I think I did a good job with South Carolina. I thought Trump had lost a lot of his lead, but probably not enough to lose. Well, maybe he did lose, but no one is going to call it based on the exit polls alone. They’re saying that Cruz, Rubio and Trump are all in the top cluster and that Kasich, Bush and Carson are grouped much further down in a second cluster.
Can’t wait to see what actually happened.
Update [2016-2-20 20:24:52 by BooMan]: Trump wins South Carolina, apparently with about a third of the vote. So, no disappointment there.
As soon as the caucus results were announced in Nevada, I got an email from Clinton asking for $1. Then I got one from Sanders asking for $3.
I suspect Bernie is going to have fundraising trouble from here on out.
HuffPo, last SC numbers:
Donald Trump 33.9%
Ted Cruz 19.3%
Marco Rubio 15.9%
Jeb Bush 9.7%
John Kasich 8.9%
Ben Carson 6.0%
Be interesting to see if Cruz beats his polling numbers like he did in Iowa. He’d have to really shine to overcome a 14.6 deficit.
And AP calls it. So the exit polling must have matched-up well with the pre-election polling.
Just for reference, with 56.7% reporting:
Trump 33.9%
Cruz 21.8%
Rubio 21.5%
Bush 8.3%
Kasich 7.9%
Carson 6.7%
Trump winning every county reported except Richland (and thanks to gerrymandering will probably win every delegate).
South Carolina looks exactly like I thought. Trump ahead by 10, Cruz-Rubio neck and neck in the 20’s, with the others way down below.
Clinton eeked out a larger lead than I expected, but not much. If I was a betting man, I’d have had her winning by 3. Still, she’s just such a weak candidate, man. With everything in the world — the entire party backing and the SIEU endorsement — being ahead by 20-30 points just two months ago…and finishing by ~4-5? Sigh.
SEIU*
So the question is whether Marco Rubio can be programmed well enough to beat Trump. Rubio is essentially Dan Quayle (that may be an insult to our former VP’s intelligence).
He is the luckiest politician alive, and he probably will win the nomination. The main obstacle at this point is the debates.
Our genius “progressive” bloggers have decided that it is a good think to nominate a candidate with a rating of 53 unfavorable 41 favorable. The same people have argued that “electability” is a key reason to support Clinton, because she has been ‘vetted”.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating
She had been vetted – and people don’t like her. This is obvious to anyone who understands polling – and has not been mentioned ONCE by people advancing the electability argument.
Rubio has lead in her in every poll but one since Iowa, and Clinton did not break 45 in any of them.
Clinton is defending an unpopular status qua, and is not liked.
Which means this will be the most negative campaign you have ever seen.
Anybody beat this by the way?
As I posted elsewhere 3/15 is when time runs out to stop Trump. SC is unpredictable because I think that will begin to dawn on GOP establishment voters, and Bush and Kasich may collapse as a result.
So I would guess
Trump 31
Cruz 24
Rubio 21
Bush 8
Kasich 8
Carson 7
Nevada had little effect on the ’08 race, and a close Sanders loss would change nothing. A Sanders win by more than 3 will be a big deal – but all the media is in SC.
My guess is Clinton by 2
When you said
In Tarheel’s thread I agreed with these numbers, except with Cruz-Rubio much closer. I figured Cruz 22 and Rubio 20. Looks like 22.5 and 22.3, with Rubio in second. Damn.
I could see the same thing happening late in SC as in IA – and I bumped Rubio up.
The media – and by this I mean the conservative/Fox media want Rubio to win. So I reduced the Bush/Kasich number to raise Rubio.
But you were right – you saw Rubio actually winning – so you beat me.
So to compare
Trump 31 (was 32.5)
Cruz 24 (was 22.3)
Rubio 21 (was 22.5)
Bush 8 (was 8)
Kasuch 8 (was 8)
Carson 7 (was 7)
Clinton won by 4, not 2.
If I were Hillary, I would want Bernie to stay in the race banging his message as long as he pleases. He’s clearly helping the Democratic brand. Sure, some of his supporters will be disappointed when Hillary wins the nomination, but most of them will get over it.
“Sure, some of his supporters will be disappointed when Hillary wins the nomination, but most of them will get over it.”
I wouldn’t be so sure about that.
I would. The vast majority of Bernie’s supporters are neither stupid nor insane.
MSNBC reports that for three times now the democratic turnout is about half of 2008, while republican turnout is higher. So you may be right Hillary should encourage Bernie to slog through it in hopes of increasing turnout in the general. But Bernie could rapidly lose support.
This is one of the reasons why the top-line numbers weren’t telling the whole story in Iowa or New Hampshire. Sanders has not been bringing in all that many new voters.
That appears to be true. I thought it was exactly opposite. Sander’s support may be rather shallow. Who woulda thunk it.
South Carolina turned out exactly as the polling aggregates predicted it would, with the exception of ~6% undecided voters, who mostly filtered into Rubio’s column (some in Cruz, some in Trump).
Bush dropping out as we type…
With this win under his belt, Trump’s influence on the Rep down ballot tickets will certainly make things problematic for Rep candidates.
While the Rep infrastructure scrambles to figure out how to cloak their candidates in Trump teflon, the Dem leadership better be doing some smart thinking on how Trump’s lead just might give us the Rep weakness to regain both the House and Senate.
… and Bush drops out. Don’t let the door hit you in the butt, Bush.
I gotta say that the juxtaposition of Jeb! taking the stage to drop out, Trump sending out a snotty, gloating tweet about Bush’s defeat while Jeb was still speaking, and one minute later Donald hits the stage in 10+ arrogant victory mode…I admit to enjoying seeing Trump grinding his boot into the Bush family as he has. It’s not the best part of me.
I still recognize that Trump’s stump speech is full of outrageous bullshit, and he would be a terrible President. So there’s that.
They’re ALL horrible, horrible, horrible. The Bushes, though, are Historically Horrible, and their disappearance from this round of the game is a simcha. Of course, they might be back eventually but not for a long time, one can only hope.
I’m looking at the county returns.
First interesting observation: Richland County, Columbia, the capitol city county. Rubio leads. The establishment GOP are snapping to the governor’s endorsement or at least at the moment.
Greenville and Spartanburg have not weighed in yet heavily.
Surrounding counties still went heavy for Trump but put Cruz in second not Rubio. Exception is Oconee.
Percentages obscure what the absolute numbers tell even though they are determinative in declaring a winner.
The numerical totals with slightly over half of precincts in:
Trump – 126,526
Cruz – 81,453
Rubio – 80,319
Bush – 30,917
Kasich – 29,355
Carson – 24,922
Just look where Jeb! is relative to Carson in a 4-million population state.
In looking at the county results it looked like Rubio did better and in fact one of the richer counties in SC.
Someone wrote that the Blue Collar conservatives had settled on Trump, but the White collar conservatives had not.
Do the county by county results suggest Rubio is doing better in admittedly the vague White Collar group>
Now, half of Greenville County drops, and Trump leads by 1% in the home of Bob Jones University. If this holds, the evangelicals are in a mell of a hess.
Greenville 89 of 151, Carson 9%; Bush 7%
I will repeat something I’ve been saying about the fundies for months: they are showing that when the rubber hits the road, racism trumps Dominionism for them. Maybe a more exact way to define it is that many of these people see their charismatic faith through a paranoid racist frame, Clash of Civilizations style.
It is quite remarkable to see fundamentalist Christians in ecstatic support of a man who has been a notorious moral reprobate in his personal and professional life.
And no one cares about free market fundamentalism and tax cuts for rich people. Well, Trump’s plan significantly lowers taxes on the rich, but you wouldn’t get that from the rhetoric.
It seems the national priority for Republicans is “Give the libruls heartburn.”
More to the point, the sketchy priorities that Trump has identified would rather comically increase Federal budget deficits. Can you imagine the amount of deficit spending that would be required to deport over 10 million residents?
But liberals and minorities would be punished, so the head-snapping change in the views of conservative voters re. Federal debt and deficits is becoming safely returned to evergreen status.
I see a clash of civilizations but my way to victory is to be open an honest, try to deal with our faults care for our neighbor and give the best life to our people. In that way only can the West claim superiority.
So, Jeb Bush is gone.
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
$100 million down the toilet.
Yes, I’m enjoying the Fall of the Bushes tonight. Americans of all political persuasions have rejected them.
Yes, and to lose to the guy who said to his face that his brother was a turd who failed to keep the the country safe on 9/11 and lied to get this country into Iraq, which was a catastrophic mistake is icing on the cake. Republican voters are actively repudiating the Bush family, not just hapless Jeb!. The whole family knows that the family name is toxic shit, even in the party.
I wonder if W cares. I suspect he just doesn’t give a shit anymore. He just laughs all the way to the bank.
He’ll paint another doggy, or maybe by now he’s graduated to crayons.
Spartanburg just dropped. Cruz comes in third even though he was second in Spartanburg.
Greenville all in. Solid Trump for the GOP.
How quickly does the establishment capitulate in order to solidify the general election campaign?
First they have to decide if they want to win with Trump as their candidate.
My submission for funniest truth so far in the campaign was someone’s tweet from last year on the five stages of Trump grief for the GOP:
1 – Denial
2 – Anger
3 – Bargaining
4 – Depression
5 – Making America Great Again
It’s a two-edged sword.
I’m also enjoying this result. I don’t consider Rubio a major threat to win the Presidency, but he’s slightly more dangerous in the general election than Trump or Cruz. So it would be good for our prospects if it continues to be a Trump v. Cruz race. But Teddy boy is such an unctuous jerk that I’m happy he and his supporters are forced to deal with a less welcome result tonight. He’s remaining his superior, oleaginous self in his speech.
Let’s note that the rules for distribution of delegates in the Republican Party primary really maximizes Trump’s South Carolina win. So, taking the hint from BooMan that the actual delegate count is far more important than the horse race narrative, both Cruz and Rubio are effectively big losers tonight.
And, bonus points for the fact that the closeness of the South Carolina second-place result, the personal animus Cruz and Rubio have for each other, and their different positioning and voter bases with the GOP means that Ted and Marco will continue to spit the non-Trump vote through Super Tuesday. And the Donald has proven there is nothing he can say or do which will chase off unacceptably large swaths of Republican voters. His outrageousness has inoculated his primary electorate.
Trump will be the GOP candidate in the general election. It is difficult to imagine any realistic alternative at the moment.
It’s quite remarkable. They really do want to run straight off the electoral cliff over there.
Looking at the nevada exits makes me smile despite the loss. Sanders won under 45s. For perhaps the last election the boomers fucked us over but the writing is on the wall. Unless the establishment has the guts to actually arrest the power imbalance between elites and everyone else there is a rising tide to support the radical changes we need for survival.
I’d also want Sanders to stay in the race because his message not HRCs is really the only thing I think can beat Trump. Im calling it, I think HRC will lose to Trump.
I agree that Sanders ran a strong second today, and his campaign showed some excitement and organizational durability. Unfortunately, he’s about to hit a bunch of states where the polls and demographics are not looking good, and he needed a narrative boost that he will not get.
I remain unworried about Trump in the general. He won’t pull enough non-white support to compete, and he’ll be a GOTV machine on both sides. A 2016 Presidential election with big turnout is an election that is almost impossible for us to lose.
Impossible to lose you say. Let’s hope so but cable news is saying the republicans have record turnout in the first three states and the democrats have about half of 2008.
There seems much to consider regarding his unprecedented and unpredictable campaign. And his supporters. Presumption will be punished, I suspect.
The problem with that strategy is that Trump might be able to turn out “disaffected” white voters at high enough rates to cancel the increase in turn-out of minority voters voting against him. I don’t know- you would have to look at the demographics and voting patterns of the swing states. Unfortunately, it is a large group.
Trump’s Republican primary campaign opponents are uninterested in reminding the voters of things like Trump’s statements where he says the Federal minimum wage is too high and he would like to take health insurance from tens of millions of them. The Democratic candidate and their supporters will be very happy to do so.
It will be difficult for a guy to gain support from unimaginably large amounts of disaffected white voters when there are lots of parts of his platform which would be particularly hostile to their interests. We should also note that even as he wins in each of these early States, two-thirds or more of Republican primary voters remain opponents to Trump. Because of the split field he appears in a great position to skate through and gain their nomination, but the Donald is not completely dominating the field with Republican voters.
I read a piece a week or so ago saying the same thing: big changes are coming. Problem is it now looks like it may be delayed and that is where movements go to die. Or maybe Hillary will take up the mission to defeat Trump.
Agreeing Hillary may prove a high-risk strategy versus Trump; but I suspect she’s bests any other.
Yesterday, Atrios nailed tonight’s media narrative:
Did anyone listen to,Trump tonight? He is at least as populist as Sanders, with an edge for tough guys. How will Hillary beat him? It won’t work to wave a letter from some economists or call out Bill. She has to get that turnout and stop the bullshit about how pragmatic she is. Worrisome. Stay in Bernie.
You can’t win a Presidential election without winning decent amounts of non-white votes. And Hispanics/Latinos, African-Americans and Asians would be highly motivated to turn out in a general election with Trump on the ballot.
The Democratic candidate and their supporters will have to run a strong campaign to win, and I believe they and we will. I’m not taking it for granted; I’m preparing to do the work to win.
Hillary’s not an idea candidate. But I see her having a much better time of it than Sanders. She’s basically solid, which will allow us to exploit Trump’s weaknesses. Trump and Sanders would both be weak in a general election. Who the fuck knows how that would turn out.
“Trump and Sanders would both be weak in a general election. “
Or at least that’s the received wisdom.
you don’t think we’re smart enough to observe both candidates and figure it out for ourselves?
Most polls thus far show Sanders doing better against Trump than Hillary does.
I still don’t see how any GOP candidate, including Trump, can beat HRC in the electoral college. The GOP has simply written off all minorities and many women. It’s electoral suicide. Trump might win Ohio but if you go here (http://www.270towin.com) and give the heavily Latino states of FL, CO, NV, NM and VA to HRC, Trump could win IA, WI, OH, NH and either PA or MI and still lose. Remember that Florida is 23% Hispanic and only about 30% of those are Cuban, and the Cubans are at least 50% blue-leaning while Puerto Ricans and Mexicans are massively blue-leaning. Even if Trump won FL, getting PA and WI back would still give the win to HRC.
Also, keep in mind that the Teflon Donald’s sensational gaffes have been discounted because they never hurt him with the 40% of the GOP primary electorate that supports him. In the general, if Trump let loose with one of his trademark soundbytes (or any of the old ones were viralized in campaign ads), the effect on a Trump v. HRC poll in a battleground state would be significant and the media would seize on it. He’s only teflon in the GOP. And if he did start looking bad in the polls, God only knows how he’d react. The bigger the bully the harder the fall and the the viral humiliation cycle could make Jeb’s look like a walk in the park.
….we can just go straight to midterm like losses for Democrats immediately this year when we usually make up some lost ground (instead of having to wait until 2018).
President Trump. Hmmm. Hadn’t thought about it seriously ’til now. President Trump.
How bad could it actually get for gay men and women under the leadership of a President Trump? He’s from New York. They loooove the gays in New York, right? So, no worries. At worst we won’t be any worse off than we are now. Likewise Social Security and Medicare. They’re safe under President Trump and persistent Republican majorities in Congress, right? Hell, it was a New York-based president that invented Social Security, so Trump’s not going to fuck with that. Phew. At lease we don’t have to worry about Social Security. What else?
I wonder if President Trump will want to run for re-election in 2020? He’ll be 74 then so not out of the question, and who knows, he’ll probably mellow out a little as he gets older, so meybe he’ll become a less unpleasant fellow if he runs for a second term and wins.
Funny. I can’t remember an election, over forty years now, where when it was over I didn’t wonder why I gave a fuck about being a Democrat. Not a single damned election. Republicans are worse, but what’s the difference really to a black kid growing up in the hood? To a gay kid growing up almost anywhere? To young women in real economic terms? What’s the difference to anyone born here without a silver spoon in its mouth? Not a whit and I guess we all know that and most folks are content looking at theirs like it’s all just a big lottery (and you can’t win if you don’t play).
President Trump. Nope. Sounds awful, but as BooMan himself would say, who gives a shit?
This gay man can get married and have it recognized by the Federal Government because of Democrats. I have solar panels on my roof and a Chevy in my driveway because of Democrats. My husband has the option of retiring before 65 because of Democrats (he has medical conditions uninsurable without the ACA).
I know not everybody’s doing as well as I am and I’m up for helping personally and politically. Why?
Because I’m a Democrat.
Well, best wishes and take care of your guy.
That’s the spirit!
Thank you. Go USA!
I remember the post-facto rationalizations about President Bush.
Then Iraq happened.
Where’s the revolution? turnout is down