This Monday’s news is simply not good for those of us battling Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s stealthy set of ballot initiatives here in the Golden State.
Mike Finnegan in the LA Times reports that labor leaders are very worried about the prospects for Proposition 75:
“We’re not winning on this thing, and we’ve got to step it up,” Steven Neal, a Los Angeles County Federation of Labor official, told scores of union leaders at a campaign breakfast last week in downtown Los Angeles. He likened the battle against Proposition 75 to a “sinking ship” in need of rescue.
Argh…more below…
On Proposition 73, Parental Notification, Bill Ainsworth of the San Diego Tribune does a great job covering the origins of the proposition (financial backers of 73 include Tom Monaghan of Domino’s and San Diego Reader publisher James Holman who has given $800,000 of the $1.2 million raised so far). Ainsworth also notes:
“Abortion rights generally have strong support among California voters, according to the latest Field Poll. But the nonpartisan poll early last month showed voters are split 45 percent-45 percent on Proposition 73.”
And Dan Walters must-read opinion piece in today’s Sacramento Bee sings the praises of Arnold’s Proposition 77, but with this interesting take on 77’s likely outcome (it will make CA politics more “decisively moderate“…not more “competitive”):
“Insiders who support the status quo will say it’s unlikely that a large number of districts will become competitive because of the state’s increasingly red-vs.-blue nature – and that’s true. But it also begs the question, because if only a handful of districts moved into the uncertain category – say a half-dozen of the 80 Assembly districts – the entire atmosphere of the Capitol could be changed by creating a decisive bloc of moderates more interested in policy than posturing.”
All these stories, on top of last week’s opinion polls (thanks to CA Observer), add up to a dismal picture. There’s so much to take on here. Brian at Calitics highlights the critical divide in California: Arnold is politically weak, but his agenda is winning. The state of the November propositions is exhibit A for this effect. Arnold, whose poll numbers remain in the toilet, has found more than one Achilles heel of California Democrats and is chomping away at all our our weak points like a dog on a bone.
Or, we should say, Arnold’s corporate backers are chomping away at these weakenesses. Somehow, this critical piece of the puzzle, that these initiatives were set up by big business, has been neglected. Monied interests are pushing these initiatives, just like they did the candidacy of Arnold himself, to divide CA democrats right down the middle. Whether it’s dividing our labor coalition from the rank and file, our pro-choice coalition from the “moderates” who’ve always said they support parental notification, or our reformers from our incumbants, let’s face it, we’ve been split by big money. And when we’re divided we lose; and that, more than anything, explains the fact that Arnold is weak while his agenda isn’t.
Listening to KGO 810 AM last night it became clear to me that this piecemeal response is killing us. If we split all these Arnold propositions up and debate them out of context as if they’re just these “sincere attempts” to make California better, we get bogged down…and imo, we will lose. People just don’t see the corporate money flowing behind these initiatives; everyday Californians are seeing these propositions as being about “reform.” Further, when our hard-core activists blast back on any individual proposition that is near and dear to their hearts, including Alliance for a Better CA’s talking about how 74 is “unfair”, we sound like “special interests” looking out for our own. The big companies and fat cats love this.
The way to oppose these propositions is the “one-two punch.” We need to oppose the guy who pitched this expensive, unnecessary and trojan horse special election in the first place, and to create doubt about who’s really behind them. Simply put, we’ve got to make Nov. 8th about Arnold and money. But that’s just one part of our one-two punch, we also need common sense language on each of these propostions that makes our case to everyday Californians in straightforward and consistent terms. We need to create reasonable doubts in voters minds about the motivations and outcomes of these ballot iniatives.
As we get closer to election day, this whole thing becomes about GOTV. If we haven’t created legitimate doubts about these propositions by that point, and generated strong turnout I predict we’re in for a “smiling Arnold” on November 8th….and talk about his renewed chances for 2006.
This is a cross post from my blog, k/o. Please check that link to read the dicussion we had there!
I’m especially worried about Prop. 73 and have been helping with Planned Parenthood efforts but I agree, the piecemeal approach is weak. I noticed last night and this morning, that most of the TV and Chronicle reportage is reinforcing the “special interests vs reform” language. I’m concerned too that John McCain, popular with California’s moderate electorate, has been pimping for Arnold on this election. (What a hypocrite McCain is, BTW, for all his talk about campaign finance reform. “I have talked (with Schwarzenegger) about money in politics and will continue to talk about it,” the senator said. “After this, I hope he works on it.”) Who’s organizing on the big picture front? Thanks for this KO.
Matt, a reader at k/o asks…
where is our John McCain here? Who’s our heavy hitter national figure?
Hmmm.
Work to do. It’s not over by a long shot.
Kerry is coming. He will do some speaking and lend his voice for a few things.
My opinion on prop 75- is how can anyone not directly affected, be even able to vote on this issue? If you belong to a relevant union then you’re the one paying dues and the one who may benefit in some way, also. It’s similar to voting for fees in a special property tax district (I live in a rural area and these are always coming up). We have votes for schools, hospitals, recreation districts and fire protection. Only the people in the district can vote on the issue. How can someone complain about dues they’re not paying? Vote no or skip the proposition, it’s really not any of your business.
Unions affect all of us.
I was in one briefly as a janitor in New York City and made more money in one summer than I had in the three previous. My mom was in a union for years, and went on strike with the Mpls. Nurses in 1984…one of the few labor successes in Reagan’s 80’s.
Unions are full of people whose lives impact ours directly like Firefighters and Nurses and Teachers… and some who aren’t in Unions…like “Big Box” store employees who go on food stamps and don’t have Health Insurance…affect us too.
75 is a “pro-business” proposition meant to tie the hands of Labor Unions. It won’t stop labor from doing it’s job….just drown it in paper work.
Union Members in California already can opt out of having their dues go to political campaigns….what 75 does is make that automatic and forces the unions to get signed consent to do anything. It’s a slap in the face of union members saying that their internal majority votes aren’t good enough.
However, 75 is especially good for these guys….they love to tilt the playing field…with $$$. You won’t hear them saying that 75 doesn’t affect them…and they’ve got the bucks to pass it if enough good people do nothing.
Taking that attitude already conceeds the point that there is some merit in the idea, rather than it being nothing but an attempt to silence millions of voices. This proposition is seriously flawed because it is so targeted. If they really believed you need to get permission each and every year they would have applied it to all unions, organizations and corporations. But they didn’t because it isn’t about worker’s rights, it is about trying to reduce the ability of union members to be able to speak in a collective voice to challenge the increasing clout of corporations who outspent unions 24-1 last year.
The proposition is getting almost all its funding from millionares not from pissed off union members. Check out our [Millionaires for Prop 75 site http://www.millionairesforprop75.com/%5D for more info on exactly who is paying for this proposition.
Vote No on Prop. 75.