Author: BigDog04

Being the last three days before election day, we’ve introduced the very first ‘Live Q &A Window’ for those with questions about Steve Young, the campaign, how they can help or any other campaign matter. This is a political first!

Manned only by senior staff, anyone in the world can go to our Steve Young for Congress, click on the window and ask their question.

The Young Campaign still needs all the things it did yesterday in the long thread still on the main page:

Virtual Phone Bankers: email ca48@easyco.com

Volunteers: phone: 949.640.4400 or email marion@steveyoungforcongress.com

And, of course, more contributions/cash!

Don’t think any of these is too late to participate in…we have 3 full days to fill! And the more money in the pipeline the more TV time we can buy!

Dig deep Kossacks. What to read the best analysis of the race I’ve seen from a pure mathematic point of view? It was in yesterday thread, still on the front page from Superribbie and he’s projecting a likely win if voting patterns remain the same.

CA-48, as you know, is a Special Election with it’s final election on Dec. 6th only 20 days away. Many Democrats, especially in the District after years of Republican indoctrination, have drunk the Republican Kool-Aid. They don’t believe their vote counts.

Well, their vote not only counts but this one time can make the difference in this tiny turnout election.(Likely less than 21%) In the district Steve Young, the nominee, has been beating the drums long and loud. And he’s gaining ground. But most of you have never seen or heard him.

We will change that today. Here are three short video clips on issues and one long video from last night’s debate with  Rubber Stamp John Campbell and two other candidates.

Remember Campbell was at Darth Vader Cheney’s fundraiser for him the night before! (All of these are streaming video without long downloads.) Click here and make your choice of what to watch.

Watch and meet the candidate as you did Paul Hackett! And get motivated to support CA-48 and Steve Young as you did Paul Hackett.

(Much more on the flip)
If we, as Democrats, Independents etc., refuse to help candidates that are within a few percentage points of the gross vote of taking a  district away from the Opposition then we define ourselves as a Party that fights only the Easy Fights. And that’s the worst we could be.

How can we be within a few percentage points of the gross vote in a district where we are outnumbered so badly?

In the primary the Democrats, 4 of them, got roughly 20% of the vote. The second place Republican, Marilyn Brewer, got over 15,000 votes, just short of 20% primarily because she was Pro-Choice and Pro-Stem Cell research. In fact she got a LOT of Democratic votes sad to say…even some Democratic endorsements.

Most of Marilyn’s voters will never vote of anti-choice, anti-embryonic stem cell research John Campbell who has already pledged to be in lock step with this administration. The Steve Young campaign is making an effort to pick up most of those votes…and hopefully all.

The Spoiler, Jim Gilchrist of MinuteMan Fame, is going to poll around 20% as he has been pushing hard and hording his money for a last minute push. He skipped last night’s televised debate because the League of Women’s Voters, a sponsor, was WAY too left wing for him.

Gilchrist has been singing loudly his Anti-Immigrant song and he has a major Los Angeles Radio station on his side. He gets LOTS of free press.

So if we get the Democratic vote that turned out last time plus most of the Brewer vote that will support a Pro-choice   position and oppose an Anti-choice position and we pick up the momentum that has been building in the district…we are very competitive indeed.

With Gilchrist scoring around 18-24% of the vote, all from, Campbell…it could be very tight indeed.

So why can’t the Dem’s afford to ignore this race?

Because this race can set the tone for 2006! If we take the Crown Jewell of California Republican Seats and turn it Blue…what message does that send to the White House and the RNC? It tells them they are in for the fight of their lives and can take NOTHING for granted.

So what does the Young Candidacy need to seal the deal?

A media blitz like Hackett used in the final 10 days! To do that, with no support from the state or county parties, we have to turn to you, the real Democrats, who are willing to fight and willing to look at something more than the registration numbers. We have better than a fighting chance as it is…help us make it even better.

Watch Steve Young in action in commercials and last nights debate. Take the time! Whether you agree with his positions or not….he’s the Democrat that can get the job done. And that’s a helluva lot better than another Rubber Stamp Republican in Congress!

And, yes, we are asking for your financial support at our contributions page. Whether you give large or small…every dime is used effectively.

Watch Steve and you’ll see a fighting Democrat that went up against overwhelming odds and, like Paul Hackett, with your help can be there at the finish. Only we think with the Gilchrist spoiler in the race…we will win.

Don’t just take my word for it. Make up your own minds.

Click here and make your choice of what to watch.

After watching….give us your  help. With it we can win this damn impossible race.

Enough is Enough!

Scooter Libby,not only directly connected to the Veep but also not well reported a special assistant to the President, is headed to the Slams. The Veep is under investigation. Rove is not only under investigation but is forming his own legal team and has retained a PR firm from Colorado that is expert in crisis management.

Tom Delay apparently has a hair stylist, makeup artist and smile coach for his arraignment mug-shot and acts as if he is still in charge of the House of Representatives.

Senator Bill Frist, a Doctor, makes diagnosis via video and now has a ‘blind’ trust whose Trustee’s report directly to him at least once. And he’s under investigation.

David Dreier, CA-26, is supposed to succeed Delay until his supposed gayness gets too public and he’s shoved down the row for a man, Roy Blount, who himself may soon be under investigation for a series of fundraisers that wound up benefiting a charity that employed his wife and others. Jack Abramoff and Jim Ellis, both recently having legal problems are in that picture too. Story here.

At least 154 dead in New Orleans hospitals and nursing homes…Jeb Bush trying to take the heat for the poor performance Florida performance after Hurricane Wilma….

Enough is Enough

Reform, reform and reform has to be our bywords in these next elections.

In CA-48, Steve Young, Democratic nominee issued this statement:

“It is time to stand against those who have lost their moral compass in the pursuit of partisan advantage.   Republicans object that investigations are criminalizing politics,but the indictments of Tom DeLay and Scooter Libby, and investigations of Representative Duke Cunningham, Senator Bill Frist, and others in the most powerful positions in the Executive branch prove the charge.  The assailants are still on the march, threatening to undermine our democratic ideals.

We need leaders in Washington who understand that our nation’s needs are more important than the politics of personal vendetta. The Republican Party has lost its way.  There can be no excuse for endangering the secret life of a loyal public servant to settle old debts.  When I am elected to Congress, accountability to my constituents will be more important than partisan politics.”

These are some of the reasons that Steve Young continues a vigorous fight in a Distict that many consider unwinnable. Yet we on the inside of the campaign know of the multiple plans, operating simultaneously, to bring voters to the polls and swing this election.[Excuse me if I don’t reveal our strategic plans in detail in public.]

This is the last Congressional Election of 2005. Why wait for 2006 to start the massive change in Congress needed to overcome this culture of corruption?

The Steve Young for Congress Campaign believes that those who are, in their hearts, pro-choice, pro-reproductive rights, who want to end the Iraq War as soon as possible, who are anti-corruption and pro-medical research can be motivated to vote on December 6th. And majority of those will be Democrats and Independents but there will also be disaffected, disappointed Republicans.

Just today, Oct 29, 2005, in the Orange County Register is a front page news story

of the former State GOP Chairman saying, with other things, “I think his base is alienated”.

With a projected District turnout for the final General Election, on the heels of the Statewide General Election November 8, of less than 22%, simply achieving a final vote that would normally be considered awful will win this race.

Don’t give up on the CA-48 regardless of the Primary numbers or the Conventional Wisdom. Non-conventional planning, hardcore execution and a motivated Candidate gives Democrats in CA-48 a real chance for change when change in most needed. Support us with good thoughts at least and more if you can. We have 38 days to go…and we will use every one of them.

Our motto? Enough is Enough!

In the CA-48th the final push for victory will come starting November 9. That’s the day after Gov. Muscles Statewide Special Election that is filled with toxic proposistions.

Until that is over the Unions, the Democratic Clubs, the volunteer base that we would rely on are fully engaged in a war, and I do mean war over that election. After that is over it is our hope that the SEIU, The Unions in general and our Democratic  Base can immediately suck in a little more oxygen and give us the help we need.

Since this blog is regularly visited by the competition forgive me if I don’t layout in detail the entire plan beyond the above portion…and it is just a portion that does not include the media, debates, mailings and other things.

There was a diary on dKos today asking for questions for DNC Chair Governor Dean. Apparently the poster was in a function with the Governor and was solicting good questions to ask. Mine was more specific to this campaign:

Why are you not supporting the last

Congressional race in the US, the CA-48 in Newport Beach California? Without Party support it is difficult at best.

The ’50 State Strategy’ takes on a  different meaning when a Candidate
that won his primary, has Union endorsements, national endorsement from
Progressive Democrats of America, Teachers for Excellance and many
others can’t get any Party support.

Just a question…not a judgement.

Governor Dean has done a great job and I’m sure this would be the first he’s heard of the race.

And this question is honestly asked. I sincerely doubt the Governor has ever been directly involved in any of the decision making about the race. Yet the lack of support for a Candidate, while not perfect, who is willing to spend his own money, throw himself into the race with such gusto and gather such Democratic support throughout the District who is still essentially ignored by the Party establishment brings into doubt the supposed ’50 State Strategy’.

We fight for the win. For those who read this we honestly ask for your financial support. We need that last mailing, that last unusual tactic to overcome the Republican Machine we face in this race.

We won’t give up. We ask the Blogsphere not to give up on us either.

Well, the CA-48th has settled into a three period waiting for the November 8th statewide elections.  Everyone in the 48th is trying their best to help do the work necessary on the November 8th election and still help CA-48 and Steve Young and it’s hard on everyone!  Our army will pick up dramatically after the Statewide General Election is finished and the Governor’s effort is defeated.

Yesterday Governor Muscles started his official GOTV effort in OC and Steve Young was out front with the Firefighters, Police unions and other labor groups protesting with signs and shouts.

But the most amazing piece of info from this mornings article about the Statewide General Special Election was that even Muscles was only predicting a 30% turnout!
With the tens of millions that both sides have already spent on this race I thought it would be much higher than that.

This makes my own prediction for Dec 6th (the Final General Election for Ca-48th) of 18%, down from the 22% of the Oct 4th Primary, seem realistic…not just wishful. Election fatigue is a reality. Our efforts through phonebanking on absentee ballots registration are extremely important.

If we can move a relative handful of our 108K Democratic Base and the 75K Indy base…much less pick up the Republican women that won’t vote for the Republican because he’s Anti-Choice….We can win this race!

We need you good Democrats and Independents to work hard to defeat those damn propositions but not forget the hard work of Steve Young, his volunteers and give generously as you can. As all of you already know, everything we do costs money.

All of us know this isn’t the easiest time to be a Democrat in California. We are faced with huge money and an enormous machine both on Nov 8th and Dec 6th.

But remember that the modern Democratic Party was born in the struggle of the Union movement when getting to the negotiating table was done with physical fighting, blood and broken bones. What we do today is nothing compared to what was done by those brave people a generation or two before us.

Work hard and never, ever give up. Our Democratic forefathers, many of whom shed blood on the picket lines or getting into polling places, demand it of us.

The Latest on the CA-48th

In the Open Primary race for the CA-48th district there were 17 names on the ballot. The two real Republican contenders were State Senator John Campbell and Marilyn Brewer. Brewer was the more moderate of the two. She based her campaign on a truly dumb idea of attracting enough Democrats and Indy’s to beat the Campbell Machine. (Campbell is a millionaire plus a good fund raiser.)

Anyway, two-three weeks prior to the Primary a four color full sized mail piece arrived with the portrait of Jerry Patterson, a 5 term past Democratic Congressman from Orange County, and several former Kerry city chairs all endorsing in the strongest terms Marylyn Brewer and urging Dem’s to vote for her. They had all drank the typical Republican Kool-aid in any Red District….Democrats  Can’t Win Here.

This mail piece went, as best we can tell, to every Democrat in the district. It was a blow at best. Having a 10 year DEMOCRAT former Congressman endorse your Republican opposition isn’t exactly a good day! Infuriating too.

And we already had a constant fight within the Democratic Clubs with some women on this issue, even though Steve Young is actually much stronger on the topic. Many seemed to have enjoyed the Republican Kool-aid and bought the idea that Democrats never put up a fight and can never win against the odds. We can. Read on. Most of the club members stuck with their State endorsed, and now nominated, candidate.

Well it turned out that Brewer came in second and the

Right wing Republican is our opponent on Dec 6th. Jerry Patterson was, the rumor mill has it, censored by the Democratic Party of Orange County, and now he supports Steve Young.

Here’s my question to the Kossacks:

What should Jerry Pattterson do to help Steve Young in this last six weeks?

Fundraise based on 10 years of contacts?

Convince Brewer to share her mail list?

Host fundraisers for other Brewer supporter to raise money?

Do a mailing at his own expense to Brewer supporters?

Be creative and come up with some ideas that really stretch the limits. (Suggesting that he perform physically impossible sexual acts probably isn’t useful although highly satisfying.)

The Primary campaign had an extremely low turnout. 22%. We expect the final vote on Dec 6th to be even lower. The good news in this is that even well organized efforts of absentee ballot registration and GOTV can have dramatic effect.

The reality is that even those efforts take cash. The fact is that this race is for the Crown Jewel of Republican Districts, which the Party seems to ignore,and is the first race of 2006. This race has the potential to shock the Republicans in ways they’ve not felt in decades. We need your real tangible support.

The shear beauty of this election is the tiny turnout which was, as I said, 22% for the Primary and likely lower for the General on Dec 6th.

In circumstances like this the most reasonable of efforts have a disproportionate impact. Steve Young had 3 Democrat opponents who knew they couldn’t win. If we had been given a unified party on Primary day we would have finished second. Of course being completely discounted by your opponent has it’s advantages too. This doesn’t even count the minimum of 30% of Brewers vote that were likely Democrats!

Add it all up and with a really good absentee ballot game the next 5 weeks and an enormous GOTV effort the last 30 days we can still win this thing. We Democrats are the last people the Republicans expect to put up an effective fight. And we can.

With just less than 8 weeks left and every dime being important, your creative suggestions and financial support will make all the difference. Please make your contributions at Steve Young for Congress a man you want fighting for you in Congress in December ’05.

You don’t have to wait until December 06 to make a difference.  Take action. Steve Young has. We have. We ask you to. Every small action in this campaign has an enormous impact.

Don’t prove The Republican’s overconfidence right and let them believe that we Democrats have forgotten how to win a streetfight! And that’s what this is….a streetfight. No issues. Just sweat, blood and money. And the ability to never, ever give up. Steve Young for Congress…the Man who will fight for you.

After a very short runup, more internal trouble from Democrats than we ever got from Republicans, the Open Ballot Primary for the CA-48th opened the polling places at 7 am this morning. They will close at 8pm tonight. 15 people on the ballot.

Expected turnout? Around 22-25%

Expected Democratic Nominee: Steve Young
Expected Republican Nominee: John Campbell
Expected A.I.P.     Nominee: Jim GilChrist
and other minor players

General Election is Dec 6th.

CA-48 has one election a month for three months.
Today OCT 4= CA-48 Primary
State NOV 8= State Special Election
Then  DEC 6= CA-48 General

It’s possible that the Dec 6th turnout could be lower than today’s. Amazing but true.

Please keep up the support. With Gilchrist in the race and Campbell with some wacko positions we have a real chance here.

I’ve had a some private email wondering what we were doing to get ready for the General Election. Since Steve Young, the presumptive Democratic nominee, will be facing John Campbell, the presumptive Republican nominee, a millionaire and the entire Republican machine, I thought just this one little press release might give you some of the flavor of the quality of people jumping on board this race.

 ActBlue has been jumping the last two days so don’t stop that work! Steve Young for Congress.

This press piece was released to MSM yesterday:

Steve Young Gears Up for Special Election

 Campaign Rides Momentum into Oct. 4 Primary with Additional Advisors Joining the Campaign

more on the flip

(IRVINE — Sept. 30, 2005) — The Steve Young for Congress campaign entered the final week before the October 4th special election with the announcement of Lori Kreloff and Brad Chase joining the campaign as senior staff members.  Kreloff, formerly a major donor fundraiser for the Democratic National Committee, will lead the campaign’s Washington DC based Political Action Committee fundraising efforts while Chase will serve as press secretary.  

“The competition is heating up in advance of the primary and we’re bringing aboard the big guns to add depth to our campaign,” said Steve Young, Democratic candidate for California’s 48th Congressional District.  “John Campbell may be telling the media that he has the election in hand, but the race is far from over and my campaign is adding seasoned veterans such as Lori and Brad to add depth and expertise to our staff that will take the campaign to the next level and to Washington.”

Kreloff’s primary responsibility will be to create and foster relationships with Mid-Atlantic and National Political Action Committee donors and raise funds for the campaign.  She previously worked at the DNC as California Finance Director and Mid-Atlantic Finance Director and is involved at a senior level for several major campaigns.  She graduated from the University of Illinois.

Chase will lead the campaign’s public relations efforts and serve as Young’s primary spokesperson.  Previously, he was employed by Hill & Knowlton, a global public relations consultancy, in its Los Angeles office.  He received bachelor’s degrees in government and philosophy from the University of Virginia and a master’s degree in strategic public relations from the University of Southern California.

Since we are going up against the best the Republicans have to offer we will answer with the same. Just thought you’d want to know your dollars, (and thank you for the ActBlue support of the last few days…keep up the good work), are being spent on essential tasks.

The Unions have promised substantial support to the Nominee so Wednesday we begin that process with our Washington DC person being the leader in that cause.

Since we support The Apollo Alliance that opens a very unlikely series of PAC alliances as well. We will explore every financial avenue….likely and unlikely.

Steve Young is a Dynamic speaker and we hope to capture a speech to a crowd soon and place it on site so you can see his ability to move a crowd. He isn’t a normal Candidate.

Thanks for the support and please keep it coming at Steve Young for Congress.

PS:If  The John and Ken Show on KFI audiostream on the Net, Steve is walking into the Lions Den Monday afternoon and facing down, again, the major candidates. He loves that sort of thing. It might be worth a listen. He generally thrives on that sort of combative atmosphire. John and Ken don’t play fair. And I think he’s looking forward to it.

[PPS: Just realized that if you use Firefox and have had the browser open over night or for days, like I have, you may need to open a new Browser, or new TAB to get the site. Why? Not sure and have our techs investigating…but I’m passing it along.]

By an overwhelming vote, the Orange County Democratic Party Central Committee, the Assembly delegates and other authorized officers voted at  7:50PM Pacific to endorse Grassroots candidate Steve Young for the California 48th Congressional District.

Coming from nowhere, Steve Young, a first time candidate, created his own race, nationalized his campaign, attracted the Hackett Campaign staff and now has Orange County’s Democratic endorsement! It is a story that could come only from a Grassroots candidate.

Yesterday his website was officially launched featuring innovative technology seen only once before in a political website at Steve Young for Congress. There you can join the Team that was just endorsed to help win the Primary on October 4th,2005 and prepare for the General election on Decemeber 6, 2005.

Bloggers: Join the Steve Young‘s Bloggers Posse at the Bloggers Corner at Steve Young’s website.
Press/Media: Register at the Steve Young site to get on the press/media distibution list.

Celebrate! This is the first big hurdle towards taking a Red seat and making it Blue! Join the Team. It’s going to take everyone’s effort!

The Ballot order of the Primary is determined by a random drawing of letters of the alphabet by the Secretary of State’s (pdf) office. As a result here’s the order

1) John Kelly, Republican

2) John Campbell, Republican

3) David Crouch, Republican

4) Bruce Cohen, Libertarian

5) Steve Young, Democrat

6) Don Udall, Republican

7) Bea Foster, Democrat

8) Scott Maccabe, Republican

9) Guy Mailly, Republican

10) Marsha Morris, Republican

11) Marilyn Brewer, Republican

12) Marshall Sanders, Republican

13) Edward Suppe, Republican

14) Tom Pallow, Democrat

15) Bea Tiritilli, Green

16) John Graham, Democrat

17) Jim Gilchrist, American Idependent
=================

My view on the flip.

[Thanks to CA-48 and HacknFlak for the Heads Up off of SwingState.]

My personal interpetation: Being the first Democrat on the Ballot can only help. When the habitual, but uninformed registered Democrat walks into that booth; when the Independent that wants change more than anything else walks into that booth or when the disaffected Republican walks into that booth…assuming they know nothing else…they know the word Democrat!

And Steve Young is their first and obvious choice. I haven’t consulted with the Campaign staff but I think of this as a Victory. Our Democratic challengers are buried in with the people that nobody knows.

And, in my personal opinion, since I am not an official member of anyone’s staff, that’s only appropriate.

PS: And thanks to Bob Brigham for his comment on his own post:

"And I don’t think it matters much on our side, people will be looking for Steve Young’s name…"