Today’s Economic News

DIA +1.30%, SPY +1.05%, QQQQ +1.92%
10-Year Treasury -3/8 to yield 4.11%
Oil – $1.10 to %59.63/bbl
Dollar near unchanged versus euro and yen

The markets rallied hard today.  Alcoa announced better-than-expected earnings, pushing the Dow higher.  In addition, even though the jobs report came in lower-than-expected, it was strong enough to bring buyers into the market who saw a strong US economy.  The weakness in the employment numbers relative to the consensus estimates indicated a lower inflation possibility.  I would also add that I think some of today’s rally was a psychological reaction to the London bombings yesterday, as traders wanted to show solidarity and resolve in the face of terrorism.

The 10-Year Treasury dropped 3/8 to yield 4.11%.  There were two reasons for today’s drop.  The first was the equity rally, which pulled investors away from bonds.  The second was the employment report, which was strong enough to indicate the Fed will continue raising rates.  In addition, the low overall unemployment rate of 5% added fuel to the strong economy argument, further stoking the continuing rate increases fires.

Oil closed 1.10 lower to $59.63/bbl.  Oil hit an intra-day high above $61/bbl, but traders backed-off as news that storms in the gulf of Mexico might turn east spread through the trading floor.  Weather news has dominated trading this week.  The gulf area accounts for 50% of US Refinery capacity, so any disruption in that area could cause problems for the US.  

The dollar was near unchanged again versus the euro and yen.  There was speculation the employment report would come in better-than-expected.  However, it came in lower-than-expected which caused traders to back-off of their bullish dollar run at least for today.  However, forex traders are still focused on the growth differences between the US and Europe, indicating the dollar still has some upward room versus the euro.  As for the yen, high oil prices are still hampering expectations, indicating the dollar/yen trade will probably stay neutral or dollar bullish for the foreseeable future.

Roe is Gone. Here’s What the Dems Can Do.

There are several rumors floating around that Reihnquist will announce his retirement soon.  Given that he has cancer, I find this a likely scenario.  Should he choose to stay on, he will still retire within Bush’s second term.  Either way, despite Bush’s claims that he has no litmus test, O’Connor’s announced retirement gives Bush the opportunity to appoint a justice who will overturn Roe.  Therefore, it is safe to conclude that Roe v. Wade will soon be overturned.  It is now important to make plans for a post Roe world.
I opened up my Constitutional Law textbook last night and reread the Roe case.  Here is the key to the decision: “This tight of privacy, whether it be founded in the 14 Amendment’s concept of personal and restrictions upon state action, as we fell it is, or as the District Court determined, in the 9th Amendment’s reservation of rights to the people, is broad enough to encompass a woman’s decision whether or not to terminate her pregnancy.”  In other words, the word “liberty” in the 14th Amendment includes the right to abortion.   This is what the rightwing will successfully attack when they challenge Roe.

So, what does this mean?  What is the result of a post-Roe world?  A women’s right to choose won’t be a federally protected individual right.

However, there is a way to use this to our advantage.  In the last election, the Republicans used gay marriage as a wedge issue that appealed to the rightwing extreme base.  The Democrats can do the same in 2006 by offering an amendment to state constitutions that the right of a woman to choose is a fundamental right.  Depending which poll you read, a clear majority of Americans support the right to choose, usually with some restrictions.  There are people with better Constitutional legal minds than mine who can come up with the wording.  But, you get the point.

The Democrats can do this at the state level to great effect.  This will increase Democratic turnout and get some moderate Republicans on our side.  

But, the time to start planning is now.  Let’s get to work

146,000 Jobs in June, Lower than Estimates

“Nonfarm employment increased by 146,000 in June, and the unemployment rate continued to trend down, reaching 5.0 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.  Over the month, payroll employment continued to grow in several industries, notably professional and business services and health care.”
Consensus estimates were between 178-200, so today’s number is weaker than expected.

As usual, manufacturing lost jobs.  This time the number was 24,000.  The big gains were in service sector jobs, specifically professional and business services which gained 56,000.

So what does this mean?  Bloomberg’s story has the best answer: “Slowly but surely the job market is improving, but it’s an achingly slow process in the expansion,” said Doug Porter, an economist with BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto, before the report.

Simply put, this expansion is not creating the level of jobs it should.  For a variety of reasons, employers are holding back on hiring decisions.  There are numerous reasons for this.  Often sited are health insurance costs for new employees.  In addition, corporations are doing a fair amount of pure savings right now, possibly looking for investment opportunities, possible just simply saving because it is the economic path of least resistance.

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/news.release/empsit.txt
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aW6yJzGBonBw&refer=home

Today’s Economic News

DIA +.4%, SPY +.3%, QQQQ +.35%
10-Year Treasury +8/32 to 4.04%
Oil -55 cents to $60.73
Dollar, off slightly versus yen and euro

The markets originally opened down, but slowly rallied throughout the trading day to eventually close up.  One commentator noted that investors have become somewhat numb to terrorist attacks, and in fact may view these events as a buying opportunity.  Several retailers – Target, American Eagle Outfitters and the Gap – reported better than expected 2nd quarter earnings. In addition, retailers reported a 5.5% increase in same-store sales for June, indicating the US consumer was buying heavily.  After the bell, Dow member Alcoa reported a 14% earnings increase.  

The 10-Year Treasury rose 8/32 to close at 4.04%.  Treasuries opened at a 4.00% yield – 9 basis points below where they closed yesterday.  However, traders slowly sold off their positions throughout the trading day.  This was a classic flight to quality.  In times of international emergency, US Treasuries typically rally because investors view these investments as very safe.

Oil lost 55 cents to close at $60.73.  The market dropped as much as 3% on concerns the British bombing would have an impact on the oil market similar to 9/11.  However, as the market started to digest the facts, traders noted the damage was not as broad as 9/11 and the impact on the oil market would be far lower.  Traders are still watching the storm situation in the gulf, which has already been heavy.

The dollar was down slightly versus the euro and the yen.  The dollar originally sold-off more versus both currencies, but ended near the unchanged market.  Forex traders are waiting for tomorrow’s US employment numbers.  As a result, they were unwilling to add or subtract from positions today.

Rice snubs Asia; Skips ASEAN meeting

“Rice had told Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers that she could not make it to the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in the Laotian capital Vientiane in late July due to a clash of schedules, regional diplomats said.

But some officials had linked her skipping of the trip to concerns in Washington that the region was not pushing enough for democratic reforms in military-ruled Myanmar.

As this would be the first time in about two decades that a US Secretary of State is not participating in the annual ASEAN talks, some ASEAN leaders may perceive it as downgrading of US participation in the region’s most important diplomatic event.”
This is perhaps one of the dumbest acts yet by this administration.  Let’s look at some of the issues Rice could talk about if she went.

Asian Central Banks hold about 1.1 trillion in US Treasury Securities.

The revaluation of the Yuan

The US trade deficit with China.

The US budget deficit and its effects on international trade

China’s recent diplomatic and economic overtures to Central and South America

The Korean nuclear situation

Not that any of these issues are important to this administration.  

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1529&e=2&u=/afp/20050707/pl_afp/usaseanrice_05

0707085551

Today’s Economic News

DIA -.93%, SPY -.84%, QQQQ -.49%
10-Year Treasury +9/32 closing at 4.07%
Oil +1.69 to $61.35/bbl
Dollar +.4 versus yen, down slightly versus euro

A better-than-expected Institute of Supply Management number of 62.4 (versus a 58.4% consensus estimate) started the day.  However, the markets were not impressed, instead trading in a lackluster fashion.  Traders may have taken a cue from the Challenger and Gray employment survey, which stated last month’s layoffs were the highest in 17 months.  As the trading day continued, stocks moved inversely to oil.  Stocks traded near their daily lows at closing.

The 10-Year Treasury gained 9/32 to yield 4.07%.  Bond traders bid-up prices, believing oil’s record highs would dampen consumer spending and slow the economy.  In addition, traders are waiting for Friday’s employment numbers.  This means a all market participants are not actively buying and selling in the market, instead waiting for the report to plan future trading moves.

Oil rose $1.69 to close at $61.35/bbl.  Oil traders were concerned about tropical storm Dennis, the 4th of the season.  The Louisiana area contains 50% of the US refinery capacity, so any slowdown could have strong negative implications for the oil market.  Oil companies have already shut-in 13% of their gulf capacity as they evacuate workers from the region.  Technically, the oil market is overbought, indicating the recent rally may be hit be profit taking over the next few sessions.

The dollar gained .4% versus the Yen but was down slightly versus the euro.  High oil prices continue to worry yen traders.  Japan’s recent recovery could be in jeopardy if oil continues to increase.  The economic growth differences between Europe and the US still dominate the euro/dollar trade, as traders continue to predict the US will continue to grow faster than European economies.

Tuition Crisis Mega Diary

For the last few days, I have focused on the problems with college financing.  As with the health series I did a few weeks ago, education is a classic “kitchen-table” issue.  Education expenses do not have the pizzazz of the DSM or the Rove/Plame leak.  There is no intrigue, no dastardly plots, no conspiracy.  This is just a plain vanilla issue that directly affects people’s lives and standard of living.  The average middle class person wants their children to have a better life and wants that better life within reach. As with healthcare, if the Dems help to solve this problem, we will gain voters.  Therefore, it is an issue the Dems should push front and center to their agenda.

None of this work is copyrighted and all of the references are marked.  All of the information is available on the net.  Please cut and paste for whatever purposes you have in mind.

First, why is education so important?  A report titled The Investment Payoff by the Institute for Higher Education Policy makes a strong case for the benefits of a college education.  First, college graduates have a higher average income and a lower rate of unemployment.  In March 2004, the average income for a college-educated person over 25 years old was $48,417, $23,000 more than the same person with a high-school diploma.  For the same month in 2004, 6% of 25 year olds without a college degree were unemployed, compared with 3% for those with a college degree.  (Those liberal colleges have such a negative effect on students)

In addition, college graduates are more likely to be involved in public activities.  36% of college graduates volunteered compared with 21% of high-school graduates.  56% of high-school graduates voted compared with 71% of college graduates.  (Those liberal colleges are just polluting students minds, aren’t they?)

Finally, a college education dramatically increases the possibility of self-reliance and self- sufficiency. 1% of people with a high-school only degree received public assistance, compared with .5% for people with a college degree.  In other words, a college degree is a good way to get off and stay off the welfare roles.

Boy, it sounds like states should be doing everything they can to promote college education.  It increases average income which increases tax revenue, decreases unemployment and state assistance and increases participation in public life.  Regrettably, the last 15 years demonstrate states are contributing less and less to their respective educational systems, instead passing the burden onto students after graduation.

Between 1988 and 1998, the average annual state-sponsored school tuition increase was 4.1%.  Over the same period, state appropriations — which comprise 33.4% of total state school revenues — decreased 1% annually.  As a result, tuition as a percentage of total state school revenue increased from 22.7% to 31.1% from 1988 – 1998.  In other words, the cost of state education is falling more and more on students as opposed to the state governments.

Since 1998, college tuition costs have continued escalating out of control, making college a less affordable proposition for students.  The year-over-year percent increases for 2001-2005 were 7.1%, 9.7%, 13.9% and 10.6%, respectively.  Over this same time, state appropriation increased at a 4.6% between 2001-2002, decreased 1%, and 2.3% between 2003-2003 and 2003-2004 and increased 3.8% between 2004-2005.  Finally, average inflation adjusted wages according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics grew .42%, 1.52%, -.59% and-.31% respectively for 2001-2004.  In other words, the trend established in the late 1980s and early 1990s of decreasing state funding and increasing tuition to pay for state schools has continued.  States have increasingly passed the cost of higher education onto student’s backs.

As a result of states decreasing their contributions to their respective state systems, families are less able to afford a college education and students are more burdened with post-graduation debt.  According to the Education Commission of the States:

4-year college tuition consumes 28.5% of family income.  That’s a hefty number which would effectively bankrupt a family.  It also indicates that families should save for tuition to help deal with the expense.  However, the national savings rate is at an all-time low, indicating families are not saving.  The cause of this low savings rate is topic for another discussion.  However, for whatever reason, people are not saving.

While the average cost of college tuition rose by 110% between 1981 and 2001, median family income rose by only 27% during that period. (The College Board, Trends in College Pricing, 2001)

College tuition increased 5 times faster than average income over a 20-year period. That is a hefty increase.  It indicates that college is slowly becoming more and more difficult for the median income family to afford.  As a result, their children have to borrow more of the their tuition.

A report titled The Burden of Borrowing by the State PIRG’s Higher Education Project observes that while 42% of students graduated with debt in 1992-1993, 64% graduated with debt in 1999-2000.  In addition, the number of students who graduated with over $20,000 increased from 5% in 1992-1993 to 33% in 1999-2000.  

So, a larger number of students are forced to borrow for educational purposes and a larger percentage of graduates has a higher amount of total debt on graduation.

A 2003 Nellie Mae report titled College on Credit, documented that the average amount of debt in 2002 for an undergraduate degree was $18,900 while the median amount was $16,500.  Payments on these figures comprised an average of 9% of after-college income and a median of 6% of after-college income.  

Graduate school loans are a larger burden.  The average total debt was $91,000 for law and medical students, and their payment comprised 18% of their income.  The average debt for business degrees was $39,500 and their payments comprised 8% of income.  The same numbers for education degrees was $32,200 and 11% respectively.    

Let’s look at these figures from an everyday perspective.  Suppose you already have $40,000 of debt.  Would you be more or less likely to make an additional debt-financed purchase such as a house?  How about this: you get married and have a child.  18% of your income is already paying your student loans.  What is the likelihood of you starting to save for your child’s education when he is born?  Even when we look at professions whose payments comprise a lower percentage of their respective income, the answer to the same questions is still probably the same.  I think we have a partial answer to why the national savings rate is so low.

In summation,

1.) A college education clearly benefits society by increasing personal income, decreasing unemployment and increasing public spirit.  However,  

2.) As states have decreased their funding of state university systems they have

3.) Increased tuition making college payments unaffordable for the average American family.  Instead,

4.) College graduates are increasing their use of debt financing, which

5.) Hinders their ability to move up the socio-economic ladder after graduation.

http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2002/2002157.pdf
http://www.aascu.org/pdf/05_charges.pdf

Today’s Economic News

DIA +.5%, SPY +.79%, QQQQ _1.95%
10-Year Treasury -9/16, yielding 4.11%
Oil +84 cents $59.59
Dollar unchanged versus euro and yen

The markets rallied today, partly thanks to a bullish investment call from Prudential Securities.  Their chief market analyst recommended investors reallocate their portfolios to 100% equity exposure.  In addition, Wal-Mart announced better than expected monthly sales numbers.  All three markets have sold-off to technically important levels, indicating a rally is possible from current levels.

The 10-year Treasury fell 9/16 to yield 4.11%.  Factoy orders increased 2.3% last month, the highest increase in a year.  Continued strong economic numbers and last week’s federal reserve statement have led traders to consider reversing their opinion the economy is slowing.  As a result, they are selling Treasury bond.  In addition, the 10-year has been technically overbought for about the last month, indicating a correction was bound to happen at some time.

Oil rose 84 cents to close at $59.59.  Oil’s price in under pressure from 2 tropival storms in the Gulf of Mexico.  Oil companies have evacuated some of their personnel for safety reasons, which has decreased gulf oil production by 3.3%.  Technically oil is nearing overbought conditions.  However, there is still some upward room for a breach of the technically important $60/bbl.

The dollar was near unchanged versus euro and the yen.  Regarding the euro/dollar trade, traders are still focusing on the interest rate differential between European and US markets.  There are still rumors the ECB will cut interest rates, although they have made no official announcement regarding this possibility.  High oil prices are lowering the Yen’s value versus the dollar, as traders are concerned high oil prices will hurt Japan’s recovery.  The dollar is technically overbought versus both currencies which may be the reason it has not rallied further versus either currency.

College Tuition CRISIS, part II

[From the diaries by susanhu.] State colleges are supposed to represent a value and opportunity for state residents. However, over the last 15 years, states are less responsible for the cost of this education, passing off the costs to students in the form of tuition increases. As a result, students are relying more on debt to finance their education, entering the workforce with higher amounts of debt to pay-off.
Tuition increases are not a new event; they have been occurring for some time.  Between 1988 and 1998, the average annual state-sponsored school tuition increase was 4.1%.  Over the same period, state appropriations — which comprise 33.4% of total state school revenues — decreased 1% annually.  As a result, tuition as a percentage of total state school revenue increased from 22.7% to 31.1% from 1988 – 1998.  In other words, the cost of state education is falling more and more on students as opposed to the state governments.

Since 1998, college tuition costs have continued escalating out of control, making college a less affordable proposition for students.  The year-over-year percent increases for 2001-2005 were 7.1%, 9.7%, 13.9% and 10.6%, respectively.  Over this same time, state appropriates increased at a 4.6% between 2001-2002, decreased 1%, and 2.3% between 2003-2003 and 2003-2004 and increased 3.8% between 2004-2005.  In other words, the trend established

Perhaps just as important is the changing methodology for financing education.  Between 1990-1991, loans comprised 49.3% of total tuition payments.  This percentage increased to 55.8% in the years 2002-2003.  As a result, the increased use of personal debt to finance education at a time when tuition is increasing means graduates enter the workforce with a larger amount of debt to pay-off.

To sum up, states are passing off the cost of education more and more to students, who are entering the workforce with increasing amounts of debt.  

http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2002/2002157.pdf
http://www.aascu.org/pdf/05_charges.pdf

College Tuition Crisis

Every parent wants their children to have a better life.  As a result, most parents will counsel their children to attend college.  However, this is a diminishing possibility for more and more Americans as tuitions costs skyrocket in relation to median family income.  Over the next few days, I will be posting some diaries on varies aspects of this problem.  The overlying picture is not pretty.  As with health care, the problems occur at numerous stages in the tuition payment system.
According to the Education Commission of the States:

Nationwide, the percent of family income needed to pay for postsecondary education is 28.5% for public four-year college and 22.3% for public two-year colleges.

4-year college tuition consumes 28.5% of family income.  That’s a hefty number which would effectively bankrupt a family.  It also indicates that families should save for tuition to help deal with the expense.  However, the national savings rate is at an all-time low, indicating families are not saving.  The cause of this low savings rate is topic for another discussion.  However, for whatever reason, people are not saving.

While the average cost of college tuition rose by 110% between 1981 and 2001, median family income rose by only 27% during that period. (The College Board, Trends in College Pricing, 2001)

College tuition increased 5 times faster than average income over a 20-year period. That is a hefty increase.  It indicates that college is slowly becoming more and more difficult for the median income family to afford.  As a result, their children will have to borrow more of the their tuition.  However, note these statistics:

Between 1981 and 2000, the amount of aid states allocated on the basis of need declined from 91% to 78%. (The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2002)

After adjusting for inflation, Pell Grant funds – the largest need-based financial aid program in the country – increased 6% between 2002-2003 and 2003-2204. This is smallest real increase since 1999-2000. (The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2004).

So, when families need more help, the government is providing less help.  In other words, the average middle-class family is again losing ground on the American dream.

http://www.ecs.org/ecsmain.asp?page=/html/issue.asp?issueID=199