Author: FarEasterner

If you shiver in chilly weather of winter in Northern hemisphere you might envy me – I am still in tropical India. I did not write anything substantial on blogs recently though I was tempted to ink a thing or two on atrocities in Mumbai. First, I had a lot of work (I finished book on Goa), second I was on the move (I had been in Nepal) and then I was somewhat depressed.

Goan schoolchildren

Winter in India is the best time of the year, pure champaigne. It’s time when Indians’ favourite gods Brahma, Vishnu and Shiva descend on the country every winter. It’s actually not my metathor, Outlook weekly magazine once compared thus famous Indian writers V.S. Naipaul, Salman Rushdie and Amartya Sen. Tempestous Naipaul usually acts as Shiva but since his latest book was badly received he’d gone into hiding, that’s why he is taking off invisible Brahma avatar. Rushdie is not in India, but from distant New York he sent stern warning to Pakistan and its president Asif Ali Zardari – “stop pretending that you have no evidence or you’re complicit in covering up Mumbai attackers”. Pure Shiva – destroyer of the worlds. Gentle creator Vishnu – Nobel laureate Amartya Sen is here, yesterday in his characteristic style he was mumbling something about vitality of “Idea of India” after Mumbai attacks on Indian TV. With scientists it’s better to read them than to listen to and I picked up a book of his essays from my bookshelves, “The Argumentative Indian”.

Some essays are nothing new but what attracted my eye was his article about Rabindranath Tagore “Tagore and His India”. Tagore was genius, everybody knows it, yet he was misinterpreted and misunderstood prophet, especially in the West due to poor translations. I don’t know Bengali language but I did not need to – a year ago I watched the BBC documentary “Himalaya with Michael Palin”. If you did not watch the series here is a quote from his book about the epic journey across Himalayan regions:

Unfortunately these days there were not so many good news. What caught my attention yesterday? On NDTV in “Big Fight” there was lively debate about coalition politics between 2 Communist parties and BJP and Congress. Later on the same channel in “Walk the talk” Fareed Zakaria gave an interview, he was pointing out that Americans have to choose between modernizing project in Afghanistan and fight with “Al Qaeda”, it’s impossible to bring in democracy to incredibly impoverished country with 53 tribal warlords in the field besides Taliban commanders. Later on CNN Christiane Amanpour came out with “Czar Putin” about Russia full of villains and without heroes.

Most interesting news was sworn-in ceremony of new Congress government in conservative Rajasthan [the state roughly the size of France and very popular with foreign tourists]. It was revealed that one of 13 ministers Golma Devi could not read the text of oath. She is illiterate. Headlines in yesterday newspapers were screaming: “Rajasthan’s Rabri Devi” and so on. [Rabri Devi is allegedly illiterate wife of current Indian railway minister Lalu Yadav. She was chief minister of Bihar from 1996 to 2005 because her husband was then enjailed on corruption charges. Bihar is eastern state with population of around 80 mln people].

It’s not that illiterate people (especially women) cannot be sworn in as ministers or chief ministers. Golma Devi’s elevation only highlighted once again the plight of Indian system of basic education. According to latest data only 64.8% of 1-bln strong Indian population is literate. There was some success, notably in better governed small states and in Communist ruled Kerala (where literacy rate stands as 90.9%). However such figure was achieved not through network of better basic schools with compulsory education for kids but via volunteer activities. Keralan public schools are not much different from the rest of the country.  

I did not come to India to inspect her educational institutions and cannot generalize on what I saw. My limited experience during 6 years of travels in all parts of India included not so many schools. However what I found fits well with description of school in this year’s Man Booker prize winning novel “The White Tiger”:

Probably Adiga meant Bihar when he wrote about unspecified area of Darkness ruled by Great Socialist, and Bihar is one of the most impoverished and lawless states in India. Wherever in India I visited schools, children have worn neat uniforms, carrying some books and notebooks in their rucksacks, also they are provided with simple lunch. Problems lie elsewhere – local schools as almost any public buildings in India are usually kept in far from good or even satisfactory condition. Often there is no any glass in windows (God blessed India with tropical climate). When there is no protection from elements one may safely assume there is nothing valuable inside – no laboratories, no didactic materials, no library, least of all computers.

Schoolchildren are eating their lunch during excursion in Hyderabad’s zoo while their teacher looks on.

I found long ago my lack of pedagogical talent, though I spent one year as teacher of English in a school in my native Siberia (Far Eastern Russia) and here what I can recall from my experience. The school was very small, just 4 classrooms and a sporting hall. The school was located in my ancestral village with population of few hundred people and naturally there were very few students (9th level class had only two students). There was a single computer (it was early 1990’s), classrooms were fully equiped for lessons with maps, pictures, globes, etc. There was a separate school library. District educational committee provided all paraphernalia and salaries for stuff and teachers, while villagers, on their expense, constructed new building of school complete with autonomous heating system and were very proud of its shining sporting hall (which was also used for social functions like meetings and weddings). Why they did this? For the sake of their children. Recently I heard personal computers and laptops became commonplace, there is satellite internet connection. Not that education in the tiny village school (or anywhere else in Russia) was particularly effective – in my school children could not speak even Russian language let alone expect them to converse freely in English. Most if not all did go on footsteps of their parents, became hunters, farmers, raindeer-herders etc.

The main difference, as I see now, was in the level of corruption and apathy of population, in existing culture. Adiga continues:

And yet, the teacher got away with his wrong doing.

Not that Indians, especially the brightest ones were not concerned with the plight of education system. Amartya Sen wrote about Tagore elaborately, about his public and personal life, cultural achievements, his image in the West, comparison with Gandhi and his views on multitude of topics starting with British rule and patriotism and ending on science, education and personal freedoms. Tagore visited Soviet Russia in 1930 and he “was much impressed by its development efforts and by what he saw as a real commitment to eliminate poverty and economic inequality. But what impressed him most was the expansion of basic education across the old Russian empire”. Sen quotes Tagore’s “Letters from Russia”: `In stepping on the soil of Russia, the first thing that caught my eye was that in education, at any rate, the peasant and the working classes have made such enormous progress…The people here are not at all afraid of giving complete education even to Turcomans of distant Asia; on the contrary, they are utterly in earnest about it’. Tagore was not romantic – he sharply criticized the lack of freedom he observed in Russia but this is not the main point here. Sen continues quoting Tagore: “In my view the imposing tower of misery which today rests on the heart of India has its sole foundation in the absence of education. Caste divisions, religious conflicts, aversion to work, precarious economic conditions – all centre on this single factor“. Amartya Sen then proceeds to speculate on what India has or has not achieved since independence particularly on education front: “If Tagore were to see the India of today, half a century after independence [the article was written in 1997], nothing perhaps would shock him so much as the continued illiteracy of the masses. He would see this as a total betrayal of what the nationalist leaders had promised during the struggle for independence“.

Yesterday in mentioned above public debate on “Big Fight” the audience applauded whole heartedly only once, when Communist leader Gurudas Dasgupta appealed to people after 60 years of independence finally to liberate themselves from shackles of rule of mainstream parties which could not provide employment and basic education for people. One may suspect whether Communist party apparatchiks can deliver where other bourgouise parties fail but his words are golden, he expressed what resonates with overwhelming majourity of Indians. Only I fear that failure of system of basic education in India has much to do not only with the government’s fault (what else to expect from often corrupt and sometimes illiterate politicians) but with widespread apathy of society – why people continue to tolerate rampant corruption in educational system thus forfeiting the future of their children.

Announcement by Dmitry Medvedev, spokesman of all-powerful Russian PM Vladimir Putin, of recognition of independence of Georgian rebel regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, dramatically raised the stakes in the ongoing Western-Russian conflict. Russia signalled to the West she is ready for a fight and threw gloves into faces of Western leaders. Diplomatic moves such as recognition of new states are usually irreversible. For revoking such decisions is possible only after complete defeat. Political, military, economic failure.

How Russia sees her chances in new confrontation with the West?
This totally unexpected step caught the rest of the world off the guard, Russian foes and friends alike. This was evident in just ended Shanghai Security Organistaion summit in Tajikistan where according to local reports leaders agreed to pledge only unofficial support to Russia. Leaders of authoritarian Central Asian states were not quite ready for formal recogniton of the breakaway republics. (So far only Hamas-controlled Gaza officially recognized them). Their unwillingness to fully endorse Russian action (diplomatic recognition not punishment of Georgia since most speakers denounced invasion of South Ossetia by Georgia) is unsurprising taking into consideration that even rich Western countries in NATO and EU are deeply divided how to react to the mysterious Kremlin move.

Russian rulers have calculated that they have more aces on their hands in this game and hope that in future they will gain some more irrespective of what kind of decision will be taken in Western capitals. Is this true? Just have a look at these cards.

Russia thinks she has not only logistics advantage in her near abroad (It takes so long time to reach Georgia or Ukraine from US or Western Europe) but also support of local people. If in 1979 in Afghanistan or in 1968 in Czechoslovakia population was obviously hostile to Russian aggression the same cannot be said about Abkhazians and Ossetians and potentially ethic Russian majority in Crimea.

Second factor is economics. Somehow Russia became more integrated in the world economy than in Soviet times. Many Western MNCs have started business in Russia and have been earning good money. It’s not only oil and gas if you think. Wall Street banks earn almost 100 mln dollars each of pure profit from their Russian operations. Western auto giants in Russia sell more new cars than in Germany. One of the latecomers ailing American giant Chrysler is planning to move in later this year. Turkey, once a stauch Western ally, now contemplating neutral strategy keeping both Washington and Moscow at bay – Turkey’s economy became so much dependant on Russia, on gas, construction, tourism. Europe tries hard to bridge enormous 100 bln dollars deficit in their trade with Russia. Asian countries desperately need Russian natural resources to fuel their economies.

OK, what the West can do with Russia? So far in Western capitals policy makers are contemplating only symbolic political measures like expulsion from G8, blocking WTO accession, etc, which will have no effect on Russian policy but only antagonize Kremlin. More practical steps are all painful and for many in the West undesirable.

One is militarization for Europe. Since many European economies slipped into recession it would be difficult to upgrade and enlarge national armies. And there is no guarantee that Russians will be impressed by European muscle flexing. Second thing is energy security. Russia here almost outplayed Europeans already. It’s not possible to find alternatives for Russian gas and more expensive for oil. Gas cannot be delivered from elsewhere in one day, one needs to invest blns of dollars to build pipelines. Oil is easier to transport but who will give Western companies subsidies? Then comes suppliers, Iran in many ways is more difficult partner to deal with than Russians, her oil contracts are less attractive. Nabucco pipeline from Iran was abandoned. Still many steps for economic war with Russia are possible, including visa restrictions for Russian businessmen, gradual withdrawal of Western businesses out of Russia and stalling new projects. The question is who will pay for this? US with its ailing economy and two wars on hands? Russia in response may withdraw WTO-like regime for Western goods and raise tarriffs.

By her irrational (as called in the West) actions Russia has narrowed options of the West in short term. The West has to either follow Russian suit and take irrational action of starting new Cold War or admit political defeat and impotence and delay hostile actions till better times, at least till new American administration takes office in January 2009. Admitting failure will be especially bitter since Russia, it seems, abandoned 6-point plan to allow Europe to save the face. And this failure happened in Eastern Europe where the West has historical advantage over Russia and there are widespread anxieties about Russian policies and motives.

So what will happen? I think the West will drag its feet, will be indecisive, will try again to lobby Moscow again for concessions in order to gain face saving measures. Americans will be frustrated but they cannot do much but issue hollow threats. There are indications that in White House think that crisis went just too far. Hollow threats did not work.

Also it will be interesting to see what other players like Iran will do. Iran was overcautios in its reaction to Georgia crisis, even critisized Russia for recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia baited Iran with admission into Shanghai Security Organization. She even secured agreement in Dushanbe to start negotiations with other countries like Iran about their entry. However much will depend on whether Iran will accelerate its nuclear program or not. Iran is in my mind is at bigger risk to be invaded by Western countries than Russia is at risk of full-fledged Cold War because this defiant country might seem to be a safe easy target for regime change, gaining energy security (from Russia) and completion of Middle Eastern acquisitions. How this may be achieved we already know in Iraq. However Iran adventure is regarded as quite risky without sound preliminary measures.

Long term strategy of containing Russia is not easy as well. In Asia many think that it was the West who first violated international law, invaded and occupied other countries. Russia with her action in Georgia has good chances to join the West in such unenviable position. However to hope that Asian countries join the West in obstructing and isolating Russia is wishful thinking. Remember what happened with the West after invasion and occupation of Iraq – no Asian country severed ties with the West over Iraq and Russia may well hope for the same treatment.

Then there are other reasons more important for these countries. To get India on anti-Russian board is difficult given her preoccupation with domestic problems (like her crumbling rule in Kashmir, 400 mln people living on less than 1 dollar a day, etc) and rocky relations with Pakistan and China. Courting Beijing by the West will alienate India for sure. It’s unclear what course Beijing will take in face of Western ouvertures. Will scaling down critics over Tibet and human rights violations be enough to secure Beijing a role in anti-Russian alliance? The West must offer something more substantial. So most likely Chinese (and other Asian giants) will take neutral course, taking favours from both sides. The same is true for India which is heavily dependant on Russian military hardware (it’s cheaper and it works). Asian countries are more and more interested in Russian natural resources. But without Asian giants’ willing cooperation the strategy of containing Russia won’t work especially as they provide new big markets for Russian resources.

Central Asian countries will be the main battleground for new Cold War between the West and Russia. So far there Russia has had an upper hand, controlling majority of energy routes and providing security cover for local authoritarian regimes. Another battleground may be Russia herself, where Western powers will energize anti-Putin activities (good news for specialists on Russia!). However the main opposition to Putin’s regime is coming from Communists who are not necessarily in agreement with Western policies. It will take time to nurture viable pro-Western political group with pan-Russian appeal. It’s unclear what kind of ideology the West should export to Russia, maybe Gandhi’s ahimsa or Tibetan Buddhism? And the last thing concerning the Cold War is to keep Western unity intact, not allowing Finlandisation of members of the alliance, preventing separate deals with Russia. This will be challenging task too.

What about positive scenarios of future? Are they possible at all, after incredible demonisation of Russia by Western media and politicians? Many think that Cold War is well under way. The area of differences is Eastern Europe, namely Georgia and Ukraine. Do antagonists have anything in common and if yes where? Besides economical relations Russia and the West have identical goals in Afghanistan, converging to some extent in Iran and Middle East and Russia is not a player in many parts of the world like Africa, Latin America, South East Asia. Thus there is ground for a sort of reconciliation, at least in short and middle term, but much will depend on course of events in Eastern Europe.

Instead of conclusion. We live in the world where strong and mighty is always right (proved by the West in former Yugoslavia and by Russia in Georgia). It was always so (no need to go far away, take Chinese invasion of Tibet in 1950 which is unfortunately universally recognized or Indian occupation of Kashmir since 1947). Russian recognition of independence of Georgian rebels (and previously Western recognition of Kosovo in violation of numerous UN Security Council resolutions) tore down not only international law but also unmasked hypocrisy in international relations. So far it was the one and only positive outcome of the ongoing Western-Russian crisis.

Few thoughts on developments in Pakistan.

So president Musharraf finally buckled under government’s pressure and resigned in televised swan song which ended with appropriate farewell “Bye-Bye Pakistan”. Yet another Bush’s foreign policy failure – after 9 years in power and siphoning tens of blns of dollars of American aid, Mr Osama bin Laden is still free and roams somewhere in this South Asian country.

Mush’s peaceful exit should not come as a total surprise to anybody as Pakistani army apparently refused to entertain his desire to dissolve parliament and impose president’s rule.  

What questions now raised in the region?
First immediate questions are about who will be next president and how much power he or she will wield. Then there are more fundamental questions about direction of this country, in the war on terror, on economy and troubled relationship with India.

About the first group of questions. After watching developments in this country and listening to interviews of leading politicians and commentators I have impression that new president will have his powers clipped. Consequently most likely new president will be insignificant political figure, from minority or even woman. Pakistani politicians usually look at India as an example and here we have Pratibha Patil already one year in office and she seems to handle her ceremonial obligations quite well.

After Mush exit in the country there are only 2 politicians with national appeal left – Asif Zardari, widower of assasinated Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. Naturally they will begin fighting between themselves, it’s only not clear when. Another question is whether they can do anything worthwile while they are still together besides restoring deposed Supreme Court judges.

Pakistan was formed 61 years ago to provide safe heaven for Muslims in the subcontinent but its troubled political life frequently interrupted by military coups turned it into almost failed state. Pakistan having no military advantage over India resorted to support of terrorism against India through its dreadful intelligence agency ISI. (Obviously in hope to sow disorder in India but to ISI’s chagrin India turned to be resilient to terrorist strikes and even attracted more and more foreign tourists and investors every year).

After 1998 both countries developed nuclear weapons. That made large scale conflict between them impossible (barring stand-off and occasional shelling in Jammu and Kashmir). So rivalry was reduced mainly to economical matters where India has huge advantage. Also Indian political system proved to be strong and stable despite numerous political and corruption scandals.  

While US supported mujaheedins in Afghanistan against Russians Pakistan was in ideal situation, now with Americans replacing Soviets it finds itself squeezed between hammer and anvil, torn between long time nurtured Islamists and American allies. Pervez Musharraf always claimed his whole-hearted support for the war on terror however the West started to harbour doubts about his commitment since last year especially after Islamists (like Maulana Fazlullah Radio) took over significant territories in Pakistan. I think he and Pakistan’s military establishment supported Americans thinking that Americans will eventually withdraw from Afghanistan and they would oust Karzai government and help to install the more friendly Taliban (maybe renamed). So it was temporary (and profitable for Pakistan’s army) arrangement.  

However due to Bush administration distraction with regime change in Iraq Americans did not succeed in Afghanistan. Even half-hearted NATO participation and existing international consensus (I mean Russia, China, India and others are firmly behind Karzai) did not help. Such international situation forced Pakistan to seek reconciliation with India and be less vocal on Indian heavy-handed approach to Kashmiri separatists.

So we may expect continuation of Pakistan’s policies shaped in last year under Musharraf. For example it will be two levels approach to India (political leaders will continue to talk about economic cooperation while military and especially ISI will go on with open and covert anti-Indian activities). Pakistan’s rulers will continue to ask Washington for financial help in exchange for promise to capture OBL one day. (Actually Washington already stroke deal with coalition government and released 5 bln dollars, after that Pakistan’s army immediately launched attacks against Islamists). Political turmoil in Pakistan in case of infighting between Mr Zardari and Sharif will complicate things, to what extent we don’t know.

This is my take on situation on war between Russia and Georgia over the latter’s separatist regions and its consequences for antagonists and Russia-Western relations.
Georgia

Common refrain now is that Saakashvili gambled and lost. Dearly. Of course he tries to rally people around himself as a war leader and will try to push American project of joining NATO. However with infrastructure destroyed and army disintegrated his grip on population may weaken. For the moment Georgians do not seem to have alternative to Saakashvili especially after he successfully removed his rival Badri Patarzakashvili, (media tycoon and business partner of Rupert Murdoch and Boris Berezovsky, he was at the centre of last year opposition movement against Saakashvili and died earlier this year under mysterious circumstances). However immense human and material costs of South Ossetian war will anger people after the end of actual military campaign.

Russia

Most commentators in the West are wary of Putin yet acknowledge that he emerged out of this conflict as clear winner. Whether he overplayed his hand will be seen only in future. It will depend on results of fundamental reshaping of Russia-West relations. Russia of course tries to use her leverage in the West on Iran, war on terror, burgeoning economic ties with Old Europe and first of all energy supplies to break possible anti-Russian Western alliance. Putin should be preparing strategy how to maximize damage for Western interests (there are 100 shades of grey starting from Western businesses in Russia, cooperation in UN security council down to Western wars in Middle East and covert support for insurgents) if anti-Russian alliance will materialize.

The West

The West is divided between US (adding UK and New Europe), Old Europe (France, Germany, Italy) and the rest which never had any opinion. US invested heavily in Saakashvili and Georgian army and it was huge humiliation for Washington that their puppet’s army was cut to pieces in just few days. That’s why expect more loud bi-partisan voices in US (from Cheney to Holbrook) asking for revenge. However this may be achieved only with Old Europe’s help (because the price that Russian may be asked to pay will be mainly diplomatic or economic). So the main question is whether Berlin or Paris are prepared for the start of the Cold War and inconvenience if not disruption for their lucrative trade with Russia.
Most people think it is unlikely at least for the time being but some negative policies for Russia may well continue like antimissile projects or enlargement of NATO.

The Rest of the World

The speed of this war of course did not give opportunity for the rest of the world to react, especially for such behemots as India or China (India is preoccupied with her rule in Kashmir crumbling after 60 years while China of course is in Olympics frenzy). But my impression was that reactions were mostly negative if only caused by lack of adequate information. Indian newspapers and TV channels almost did not report about the conflict except short excerpts from Western news agencies and I remember a curious headline in pro-American newspaper Times of India “2000 killed in Russian air raids”. The silence in former parts of Soviet Union is also intriguing.

One immediate outcome of the chill in Russia-Western relations will be that sides will start courting developing countries and the West have here big advantage despite its bad reputation due to ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. However I do not see that any side will win more allies. Most countries like India will prefer to sit on the fence taking favors from both sides. Another casualty may be Dalai Lama and Hollywood campaign to liberate Shangri La. No doubt the West will start making advances to Chinese, and will be ready to forget about Tibet.

And the list of consequences of Cold War between Russia and the West is endless.

I am writer (history and guidebooks), living in self-imposed 😉 exile in India, recently I was asked by diplomatic magazine to write an article about Tibetan question.
It’s not a matter of my primary interest (subject of my books is India), however it happened that I have lived for almost 2 years in Dharamsala, India, home to Tibetan exiles. However I have almost no connection to Tibetans, despite very close proximity. Of course I interact with them in market, on streets, recently I witnessed few demonstrations, but nothing specially close. I was lately busy with submitting very big manuscript of my book so I almost had no time to participate in lively and sometimes bad-tempered debates about fate of Tibet.

What do you think I should write about, do you have any suggestions in this regard, if this topic was interesting for you?

If some questions will arise I will be happy to elaborate in posts, however I respectfully ask not to indulge in extreme opinions, bordering on pure propaganda from both sides of this old conflict.

p.s. I wrote 2 diaries on Eurotrib, however some Chinese (or undercover) bloggers were indulging in spreading false information and making personal attacks on me, Tibetan society and Dalai lama. That’s why I left that blog. I hope they will not come here 😉

So presidency of George Bush Junior is nearing its end. Some say it was catastrophic. Americans may breathe easier and hope for better administration and better management of international affairs by whatever administration takes over next January. What chances are for significant change in atmosphere and content of international politics?
Bush still travels over the world, makes outrageous speeches. His deputy Cheney is sometimes shown in TV news but mostly keeps himself discreet, no doubt busy with wheeling-dealing. But as everybody understands Bush’s administration is lame-duck and lacks Congress support so it is not dealt with too seriously. Officials in his team like Doctor Rice and probably he himself think more about their legacy and that’s the reason behind frenetic search for any international success.

Yet success remains elusive. Late last year the Israeli-Palestinian peace process was recovered from oblivion in the dustbin. After Bush speeches in the Middle East even optimists should admit that chances to clinch new Camp David-style agreement are about nil.

What more? Living currently in India I can’t omit much-touted Indo-US nuclear deal. It seems the deal fell apart even before reaching US Congress. Instead of nuclear reactors India agreed to buy gas from Iran.

What else? You know probably more than me what’s up with Iraq and Iran and the war on terror, recently Pakistan and Afghanistan were in the spotlight. Yes, there were no new 9-11 scale disasters but there were many wars, many human rights abuses and hundreds of thousands of victims. If media is to be believed American economy is stumbling.

Overall it’s sad picture and the best indicator that Bush understands he has nothing to boast about is apathy of the outgoing administration in electoral process. During his first term as president some thought he would advance chances for his brother especially after pulling out crucial victory in Florida, and if I remember correctly Bush himself praised performance of John Ellis `Jeb’ Bush. Yet Bush family is nowhere to be seen this time around. No chances for turning the White House into the Grand Old Family fiefdom.

The hard work of the current administration ushered us in era of multiple crises from high oil prices, food shortages (with divertion of arable lands to produce biofuel), assertive Russia, belligerent Iran, Venezuela, rise of extremism and so on.

What about international reputation of US? Doctor Rice usually bristles at suggestions that US has lost high moral ground. Radicals, especially in Islamic world, tend to regard US as new “empire of evil”. More somber people continue to deal with US, at the same time disapproving the work of this administration and separating people of US from its government. Few people (more in such countries as UK, Japan, Australia, Canada, and of course Israel) wholeheartedly support Bush’s neocon policies.

How and where this administration committed mistakes? Whether the reason was its incompetence as some suggest? I am afraid there is no easy explanation. Despite Mr Bush verbal gaffes he is very much in the knowledge what’s going on in different parts of the world and proved to be very cunning politician (if leaked transcripts of his conversations with other leaders for example with former Spanish PM Aznar are true). His team uses services of the best specialists in many fields. Yet there are no results, or only disastrous results of his policies.

That’s why all the work of his administration should be patiently investigated and analyzed by whatever administration takes over in January preferably in advance to have plans to make corrections.

Some corrections are very easy to make, they are too obvious. Europeans (as well as Japanese, Australians, Canadians, etc) are waiting for better coordination process, and for concessions in topics dearest to them such as climate change. There are questions how to deal with Russia, China, India, Brazil and so on. But these are not really corrections which will be significant.

New president and his administration will have on their hands improbably difficult problems – what to do with Iraq, Afghanistan and the war on terror and Palestinian-Israel conflict. So far (at least I did not notice) there was no fresh thinking in America about new approaches to these vital issues except declared desires by Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton to bring their troops home. Mrs Clinton was talking even about victory in Afghanistan, it’s interesting how she can pull out victory in the country where British and Russian empires had stumbled.

Just a few thoughts on these issues. Take Iraq ravaged by civil war, lack of security, etc. What is plan for new Iraq? Is it possible Iraq turn into prosperous democracy in few years under foreign occupation? Withdrawal of troops may result in occupation of the country or its parts by neighbours – what if Turkey occupies Iraqi Kurdistan and declare its citizens Turks and will continue it appalling policy of cultural assimilation? What will Iran and Saudi Arabia do in such case? Or different scenario – after withdrawal of troops Iraq is falling under Iranian influence if not fully swallowed. No matter how inept or corrupt Arab governments are they will not be amused.

Will new administration restrain let alone criticize Israel in its treatment of Palestinians or its Arab neighbours? Very unlikely and not because Israel may (or will dare) return charge to Americans in overreacting and being indiscriminate in response to terrorist strikes – after 9-11 some countries were overrun and governments deposed because of that massive terror strike. It’s actually the task of special police forces to catch or eliminate culprits. America under Bush responded to 9-11 by wars but they did not yield results in elimination or capture of culprits or halting spread of terrorist networks.

This lead us to Afghanistan where Taleban government, very similar in its outlook and isolation to Burmese generals yet was steeped firmly in local traditions. Taleban mistake was in harbouring terrorists but hardly in its draconian social practices, demolition of ancient treasures or economic incompetence. These were questions for Afghans to decide do they need such government or not. Was it possible to separate Taleban from terrorists and demand simply handing over OBL and company and if not worked trying other methods? This war on terror in Afghanistan (and Pakistan) is unwinnable, casualties and unpopularity of the puppet government only fuel resentment and what then. Americans will come soon to the same conclusion Russians came 2 decades before – the war will end only with extermination of local population as it feeds insurgency without end in sight.

That’s why I do not expect on these issues too much of difference from new American administration, neither Democrat nor Republican. Iraq will be likely under foreign occupation even in January of 2010, the war in Afghanistan will still rage on. US will continue its unconditional support for Israel in foreseeable future and chances for Israeli-Palestinian peace will be dim as ever. And Bush policies will be vindicated as he dragged America in wars which are just continuations of policies of previous administrations.

This is collection of pictures taken from 2003 to 2008 in different parts of Indian subcontinent.

This is the first time I took time to use movie maker and turned some my pics into short videoclip.

I hope you will enjoy it.

Hi. Someone from here asked me to crosspost my diary here, originally it was posted in European Tribune, as was Part II and Part III.

This diary about my journey last october to one of the extremely remote places on earth – Ladakh. Lha Dags, the land of snow passes, is situated at the extreme north of Indian subcontinent and is separated from my temporary abode in Dharamsala only by mountain ridge. Yet there are not many people around who can boast they visited it – for this ridge is the Great Himalayan.

Himalayas from Likir gompa.
My close friend, one Kalmyk, who traversed in search of Enlightenment all lands of Inner Asia, from Mongolia to Nepal and from Dharamsala to Tibet, wrote me in september he was there, in Ladakh. I was trying to finish my assignment and could not immediately join him – only in the first days of october I took three connected flights of 1000s miles via Moscow and Mumbai (how inconvenient but there are no direct flights from Russian Far East to India) to reach Delhi. As usual I stayed in Tibetan village Majnu-ka-Tilla and thinking that Ladakh was out of question (at that time passes are supposed to be closed for about a month already) I booked bus ticket to Manali. To my surprise my neighbour was Nir, a Nepali cook from my Buddhist institute in Delhi – he was going with his friend Bhandari. Where? “To Leh, capital of Ladakh, to investigate opportunities to open a cafe next summer”. “But the road is closed, the winter had set in” – I wondered. “Not yet, we contacted our friends in Manali, jeeps are still running”. So I decided to join them whatever the consequences would be.
Our stay in Kullu valley was not long. Manali is overdeveloped hill station at the bottom of long narrow valley with frothing Beas river. This resort is overlooked by hanging snowfields of Solang Nulla. I was pleasantly surprised to find good hotels in Model Town near Tibetan gompa, much-critisized in Western guidebooks, most hotels have big balconies and windows with the views of Solang or pine forests on sharp slops of the valley. Though one can find a place to stay everywhere, in Vashisht on other side of Beas, along the woody Mall on the road to Hadimba temple and Old Manali village but for transport convenience I thought wisier to stay somewhere near bus stand. When my companions were searching for jeep to Leh I tried to use time in sightseeing – I went to Naggar to visit famous Roerich museum but overslept the road junction and went instead to noisy bazaar town Kullu. Whatever, Nepalis found a jeep and told me to be ready at 3 o’clock in the morning. This time I didn’t sleep for I was anxious and elated at the brink of the most memorable journey I was about to undertake.

Left – Kullu valley, right – evening in Manali.

It was jeep driver who overslept his time and we departed only at 4.30. But he started with vigour – he rushed the jeep on the dark serpentined road up to dreadful Rohtang pass with whistle even overtaking few jeeps and lots of gaudily decorated trucks – my heart seemed to stop without any yoga expertise. I didn’t understand we crossed the pass till he stopped at one Hindu shrine to give his donation – he prayed for he crossed it peacefully. Rohtang La is not high (3,978 m) by Himalayan standards but it’s subject to unexpected blizzards and gales (besides landslides), that’s why it takes yearly toll of human lives and vehicles. <Indian army is now constructing all-weather tunnel under it, and this year the road is closed.> Usually the pass is swarmed by Indian tourists from plains coming here to taste their first snow in life but at 5 o’clock in out of season the place was deserted.
We stopped at the check-post with lots of canteens for morning chai. I felt like I was inside a big tunnel with incredibly big mountains as its walls. Everything seemed so grand it was unbelievable. The road after Rohtang pass goes along Chandra river valley but this is too short an explanation to give you any idea what it is like. First of all there is series of lakes and glaciers, it looks like several giant gullies digged by celestial construction company. We passed boulder-strewn Sonapati glacier, then Sarkund lake. The celestial construction site is not supposed to have lush greenery but when it’s over one wonders where are the trees? Only patches of grass are seen. Peaks (including twin peaks of Gyephang) are towering like sentinels before abode of the Gods.
Lahaul is amazing – when you look at the map you would never know how it looks like. Essentially it is deep valley with little sunlight in the morning because of sheer scale of Himalayas from the north and Pir Panjal from the south. Scattered villages with flat roofed houses and several storeys gompas in typical Tibetan style lie on opposite side of the river. It’s better to go this road alone on chartered jeep as our vehicle didn’t stop anywhere where I was terrified by the vistas. Worse I took the right window seat in jeep and I missed most of Lahaul looking at mountain slopes. The road is very narrow and chasmes are deep to down 2 km to the valley. 2 – is very small number, it’s better to say 2000 metres to impress you. In one place we stuck because of fallen stony cornice squashed cabin of a colorful truck – lucky driver escaped jumping off but his vehicle blocked the road. We waited till another truck came and using rope drag the unfortunate truck off to wider place.
We didn’t stop for long in Keylang, administrative centre of Lahul district but I admired the location of this town – it is situated in one of the most beautiful places on earth, sandwiched between Great Himalayan ridges near the confluence of Chandra and Bhaga rivers. Curiously Lahulis are considered the wealthiest people in India for their narrow valleys produce finest potato in country. From the first look one cannot guess it.

Clockwise – somewhere on the road from Rohtang La to Keylang, Keylang, Darcha, on the road to Darcha.

We drove further the Manali Leh highway. The landscape became more barren, vegetation disappeared, deep ravines turned into sprawling deserts seen from winding serpentines of highway – sometimes after few hours I felt we are on the same slope of one mountain covering it back and forth trying to gain height or descend where slops become negotiable. Darcha, the last inhabitable place on the highway, is situated in magnificent river valley with two merging streams before triangular pyramids of peaks. My friends Nepalis felt like at home because in Nepal for example near Chinese border it’s the similar scenery. The checkpost I passed without difficulties as soldiers thought of me as local (as usual with my Asian look). We had tea in makeshift canteen, enjoyed views and take off on the road again.
On Baralacha La (4,883 m) paramilitary Border Roads Organization was maintaining the road – Manali Leh highway is open only from middle of July to beginning of October but it is of vital importance for Indian troops stationed in Siachen glacier north of Leh. The staff is certainly from plains, locals call them Biharis, the poorest of India’s poor but I am not sure as they uniformely black tanned under the relentless Himalayan sun. The work they do is admirable no doubt – astonishing how people from plains can adapt to such severe conditions where even oxygene is at premium.

Baralacha La, right – Bhandari, Nepali cook from my institute.

At Sarchu Serai we found several tents similar to our yurtas. Sarchu is located in round desert valley. I had lots of fruits like bananas in my handbag and offered them to hosts – Chang-pa, local nomads. At first they didn’t know how to react to the gifts, but soon their children were eating fruits. After Sarchu the road zigzags up in 21 hairpins – Gata loops – to Lachalung La (5,060 m), second pass on the road. This ascent is hardly for newcomers and for amateur mountain bikers – it’s rough.
We are already in Ladakh, part of Jammu and Kashmir state. Descent is going through incredible canyon looking like approaches to Petra (in Jordan). Some compare it with mini-Grand Canyon. Bus travellers usually miss it because of buses’ schedule, they ply this stretch of route in darkness. Restless winds carved rocks of canyon in weird fashion, several times I saw excellent natural arches.

Left – canyon near Sarchu, right – Lahaul valley.

Near Pang there is the army camp, the road pass it from the left side of the Tsarap river in some 300-500 m above the camp. The environment is harsh, nevertheless Indian soldiers were enjoying cricket even at this altitude. After crossing the river we drove into wide and long (5 km*40 km) Morey Plain at altitude of 4,700 m, which seemingly is not suitable for any forms of life. The somewhat boring ride ends in the ascent to the last and most formidable barrier on the way to Leh – Tanglang La (5,325 m). On the top, covered by snow, I asked to stop near small shrine with fluttering Buddhist flags – the thin air was almost without oxygene, it was difficult to breath. With shaking hands I made few photos of distant Ladakhi (it was actually Zanskar ridge) mountains covered by dark-grey clouds. I was disturbed and anxious like Frodo reaching mountain pass and looking at distant Mordor with its cragged gloomy peaks, frightful yet alluring. What I would find there? What I could expect? I didn’t know.

Clockwise – Sarchu Serai, Tsarap river, Tanglangla Pass, Morey plain.