Author: Frank Schnittger

In Off the reservation I wrote I would “make some far out predictions based only on the most tenuous of currently observable facts.” At the risk of confirmation bias I will hereunder examine what evidence to support that thesis is gradually becoming available. I will rely heavily on Wikipedia compilations of all available polls as any one poll has to come with so many health warnings.

Even compilations of polls have to come with a health warning that they represent, at best, a snap shot in time, and are subject to becoming out of date very quickly in a rapidly evolving environment. For that reason I will rely as much as possible on polls whose field work was conducted after 29th. March 2019, the date Brexit was supposed to happen. I do so as I believe that date could come to mark a watershed in UK history.
I also believe that not a lot of significance may happen between now and 23rd. May, the starting date for the European Parliament elections. Westminster is in recess, and Theresa May has survived (again). The May Corbyn talks are being kept on life support so that both sides can claim they are doing something positive to resolve the mess, but it is in neither leader’s interest to actually come to an agreement.

Any agreement they could strike would probably split both the Labour and Conservative parties and might not pass in the House of Commons even with both leaderships applying the whip. Corbyn has absolutely no incentive to bail out Theresa May, and May has now achieved her immediate objective for the talks of providing a pretext for securing another A.50 extension.

It has come at the price of having to take part in the EP elections, but she can always claim that they are irrelevant in the context of delivering Brexit. Until she can’t.

What happens if the turn-out is much higher than previous EP elections and results in a large surge of support for Remain or second referendum supporting parties? Strangely for a departing member UK European Parliament elections turnout has actually increased slightly over the years, while it has declined almost everywhere else.

A poll for the Open Europe think-tank by Hanbury Strategy indicates the Tories would suffer a crushing defeat if the elections took place now.

Basically a 60:40 split in favour of Remain or second referendum supporting parties… This compares to the results of the 2014 UK EP elections as follows: Labour 25%, Conservatives 24%, UKIP 28%, Lib Dems 7%, Others 18%: Almost identical to the 52:48 referendum result. Basically, since then, Labour has gained over 10% support at the expense of hard Leave parties, UKIP and Farage’s new Brexit party.

These results are corroborated in General Election polling for the main parties:

The trend line is based on the average of the previous 15 polls. Basically the Tories have been in free fall since Theresa May failed to “deliver Brexit” at the end of March and the Labour decline has halted. Recent polls all show Labour ahead.

Strangely, there has been no Remain/Leave polling since March, but March polls all show Remain well ahead, often by double digit margins. Interestingly, some February polls show Remain ahead of leave by c. 50% among Labour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands – supposedly the heartland of Labour Leave supporters. Another February poll shows Remain ahead of Leave by 62% among respondents of voting age only since the 2016 referendum, and by 26% among non-voters in the 2016 referendum.  If Corbyn is worried about splitting the Labour party, it seems he has less and less to worry about.

Most polls show undecideds in the 10-30% range, so there is still plenty to play for. However it is hard to see those voters plumping for the Conservative party, given the humiliations it has wrecked upon the country since February.

This has resulted in a lot of voters saying they would boycott the European Elections:

Some 26% of Britons say they would sit out elections in protest, while 47% say they would vote in them, and 17% admit they would not vote in them anyway.

A higher proportion say they would vote than turned out in the 2014 EU elections in the UK – 36% of potential voters turned out five years ago, though usually more claim they will get to the ballot box than actually do so.

Four in ten (43%) say they will be angry if European Parliament elections go ahead (30% saying they would be ‘very angry’), while 28% would be pleased and 23% would not mind either way – 5% were unsure.

 —<snip>—

Forced to choose between no deal, Theresa May’s deal or a long delay with EU elections, 41% prefer no deal, 35% a long delay with EU elections, with just 16% favouring the prime minister’s plan – nine percent answered ‘don’t know’.

The vast majority of the boycotters seem to be Tory activists and voters: Rank and file Tories to BOYCOTT EU ELECTIONS – `Brexit shambles SHAMES BRITAIN’

GRASSROOTS Conservatives are set to “go on strike” and boycott the European elections after Theresa May extended Article 50, it emerged today.

Theresa May was forced to plead with the EU to extend Article 50 until June 30 to prevent the UK crashing out of the bloc without a deal. In her letter to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister said the UK would be participating in the European elections on May 23. But according to local party chiefs, “a lot of Tory activists are going to be on strike” because of the extension.

The Chairman of the Conservative London East Area said the Tories were struggling to find people to campaign for the party in the European elections.

Dinah Glover said: “They just don’t have that commitment – they’re just not going to put weeks of their lives on hold to campaign for something they don’t believe in.

“Going out to campaign would be giving a very literal example of the fact that we are still in the EU.

The mood among Tory activists is hardly going to be improved now that May has actually agreed a Brexit delay until October 31st. Basically I see no reason to alter my prediction in Off the reservation that the Tories will win only 15% of the vote and that the turnout will be high compared to previous EP elections. The Hanbury poll cited above also found that “The survey also suggests that Remain supporters would be more likely to vote – 47% compared to 38% of Leave voters” which should increase the Remain parties margin of victory.

So we have the perfect storm for Theresa May. Unable to get rid of her until December, her party has effectively gone on strike. Her supporters are much less likely to go out and vote, and Remainers – disappointed by the response to their 1 Million march and 6 Million petition signatures – are likely to turn the EP elections into an effective second referendum vote. If Remain and second referendum supporting parties can rack up in excess of the 17.4 Million who voted Leave, the argument could well be all but over.

OK I’m going to go way off the reservation here and make some far out predictions based only on the most tenuous of currently observable facts. I do so because I can’t see the Brexit conundrum being resolved within the available universe of conventional solutions, and because I think the retribution of “the people” on those who authored their misfortune will be terrible.

It’s one thing punishing a government for poor performance during an economic downturn which may be little more that a reflection of a global business cycle. But its quite another when your government is almost the sole author of your misfortune, and not only that, has caused you to become the laughing stock of the “civilised” world. People have their pride, too, you know, and hate being made to look foolish.
My first few predictions will be somewhat mundane, but then the fun begins:

1. The May Corbyn talks have already fulfilled their primary function of providing May with a pretext for seeking a further A. 50 extension and giving Corbyn an opportunity to look relatively measured, reasonable, and statesmanlike by comparison. It is in neither leader’s interest to actually come to an agreement, and hardly anyone expects or wants that anyway.
2. Despite Macron playing bad cop the EU will agree May’s request for an extension, but with stern words about coming up with a workable plan, participating fully in the EP elections, and accepting a duty of “sincere cooperation” for as long as the UK remains a member. [Read: Keep Rees-Mogg off our lawn].
3. UKIP and Farage’s new Brexit party will campaign enthusiastically in the EP elections as hating on the EU is their whole raison d’être. As before, no one will quite know where all their funding comes from. The Conservatives will be forced to follow suit despite fearing annihilation and wishing they could pretend the EP elections weren’t really happening and claiming they don’t matter anyway.
4. Corbyn will find it increasingly difficult to ride both Leave and Remain horses at once and will point to the EP elections as an opportunity to “let the people have their say” and that Labour would abide by the result. However as the campaign progresses Labour edges ever closer to the Remain/second referendum position for fear of leaking votes to the Lib Dems and Change UK: The Independent Group party
5. The EP elections will also be a lifeline for the new Change UK: The Independent Group party as most of their members face defeat in a FPTP single seat constituency general election and can only hope to cling on to a political career as MEPs. If elected they will seek to join the EPP so they can claim to be the only UK party in the only European Party grouping which matters much, these days.
6. Both Sinn Fein and the DUP will lose votes in the N. Ireland EP election with the Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP in a dogfight for the final seat. The sky will fall in if nationalists win 2 out of the three seats for the first time ever.
7. Tory voters simply won’t show up for the EP elections claiming they are irrelevant as the UK is leaving the EU sooner or later anyway. Other important “influencers” will try to organise a boycott of the elections but will be confounded when the overall poll ends up being almost as high as the 2016 referendum or at least much higher than any previous EP election in the UK.
8. The Tories are decimated receiving c. 15% of the vote, outvoted by both the Lib Dems and UKIP/Brexit party combined. Leave supporting parties are defeated by Remain supporting parties (if you include Labour) by a margin of 2:1. If the poll is high enough this would equate to a victory for Remain by 20 Million votes to 10 Million, eclipsing the 17 Million people who voted Leave in the 2016 referendum. All attempts to proclaim the vote as “meaningless” prove futile in the circumstances.
9. May finally resigns as Tory Leader paving the way for a Tory Leadership election. Jeremy Hunt [“The EU is like the Soviet Union”] wins the Tory Parliamentary party leadership nomination process with Boris Johnson just about obtaining 2nd. place. Although it might be a struggle to imagine such a thing, Hunt is regarded as the “May Lite” candidate, a Remainer at heart who dutifully followed the dictates of “the people”.
10. Dispensing with such nonsense the Tory Party membership (average age 70+, heavily infiltrated by ex UKIP members) proclaim Boris Johnson as their new leader. Unfortunately some Tory MPs fail to reconcile themselves to this prospect and do not vote for Boris as Prime Minister denying him a majority in the House of Commons. When he fails to win a vote for Prime Minister a second time, May (still acting Prime Minister) has no option but to call a general election.
11. Johnson campaigns for a “no deal” Brexit with Labour promising to attempt to “reform” the EU before considering the matter of Brexit again. The Tories are decimated in the general election with Corbyn becoming Prime Minister and the Lib Dems becoming the largest opposition party. The SNP clean up in Scotland, Plaid Cymru do well in Wales, but the DUP retain most of their seats. (Nothing ever changes in Northern Ireland, see: Winston Churchill’s “the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone”).
12. Prime Minister Corbyn more or less forgets the Brexit debacle ever happened and focuses on a domestic policy agenda. Proposals for EU reform are tabled in Brussels but are politely ignored or paid lip service to while the real business of the EU – screwing the little guy – is pursued with renewed vigour. Ireland finds there is a price to be paid for all that EU solidarity and reluctantly agrees some corporate tax reforms including a digital tax on the on-line e-commerce giants.

And then they all lived happily ever after…

Theresa May has written a long letter to EU Council President, Donald Tusk, requesting a further extension to the A.50 notification period until June 30th., the same date she asked for, but was refused, last time out. It is a well drafted letter, which many of us commenting here could probably have drafted for her.

In it she makes much of her ongoing discussions with Jeremy Corbyn as providing an opportunity to create a consensus for the UK’s future relationship with the EU. The EU has been telling her that for some time.

But she also acknowledges some facts the UK has been seeking to deny for some time: Firstly, that the Withdrawal Agreement is finalised and cannot be renegotiated. Any discussion with Corbyn is about the non-binding Political Declaration on the future relationship between the EU and UK, and that alone.

Secondly, that any continuation of the UK’s membership beyond 22nd. May creates a legal obligation to take part in the European Elections and she promises to make all the required preparations to enable the UK to do so. She still clings to the hope that the UK might agree and ratify “an orderly Brexit” with the EU before that date, thus enabling the UK to leave without holding the elections.

However that rather ignores the fact that the UK’s participation also impacts on the number of seats on offer in other European Member states, and parties and candidates have a legal right to know how many seats will be on offer. Will the Dublin constituency have 3 or 4 seats, for example, and therefore will some parties nominate 1 or more candidates? Expect legal challenges to the legitimacy of the election if that is not clear by the time nominations close.

Mark Durkan, former leader of the Social Democrat and Labour Party (SDLP) in Northern Ireland, has sought and won a nomination to run as a Fine Gael Candidate in Dublin – on the understanding that Brexit meant no European Parliament elections would be taking place in Northern Ireland. Will he now run in the Northern Ireland constituency in an election which may or may not happen? How does that possibility impact on his credibility as a candidate for Dublin?

So the bottom line is that her request can only be acceded to by the EU Council on the clear understanding that the UK will participate fully in those elections. Like it or not, the UK will be having “a public vote” on what will effectively become a second referendum on Brexit, however much some parties and groups may like to claim otherwise.

No doubt extreme Brexiteer Parties like UKIP and fringe right wing groups will do well, but will parties supporting Remain or a second public vote do better than pro-Brexit parties? Will the Tories campaign on the basis of a no-deal Brexit, or on “May’s deal”?

No doubt different wings of the Tory party will try to have it both ways but I would expect the election to become (in part) a referendum on their Party’s performance in office. If so, the results will not be pretty. Expect the Tories to claim furiously that it is “a meaningless vote” and that they are focused on “delivering Brexit”.

But if the poll is high and the Tories poll much worse than Labour, the writing will be on the wall. European Elections in the UK have generally provoked little interest and resulted in low polls. This one could be as important at any in UK history. A last chance for Remainers and Brexiteers to have their say.

Unlike a binary referendum poll, voters will also be able to choose between parties supporting “May’s deal”, No deal, a Labour deal?, or Remain. If Parliament can have lots of indicative votes, why not the people as a whole?

But for Labour the EP elections could also prove to be a crucial turning point. They have to avoid contamination with May’s unpopular deal, especially as the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement isn’t even within the scope of the Corbyn May discussions.

So those discussions will have served their purpose by the mere fact that they have happened at all, providing May with a pretext to look for a further A.50 extension from the EU Council, and Corbyn an opportunity to look constructive and statesmanlike. No one will be surprised if they don’t lead to an agreed Corbyn May Brexit deal, and all gloves will be off for the EP elections to come.

But what does Corbyn’s Labour party campaign for? A Brexit deal containing “A customs union”, “close alignment with the Single Market”, or for Remain?  The minimum requirement for holding both Leave and Remain potential Labour voters together would be a public vote on the outcome of any future negotiations with the EU.

But for the vast majority of UK voters, Brexit itself has become a huge turn off, and most want it finished with, one way or the other, sooner rather than later. A promise to hold further extensive negotiations with the EU will hardly be a winning electoral platform.

So it will become increasingly difficult for Labour to ride both the Leave and Remain horses at once. Corbyn may have to come out and declare that Remain is preferable to “May’s Deal”, and that a future Labour government would explore all options – a better Brexit deal or a programme to reform the EU as a member – and would put the outcome of any discussions to a second public confirmatory vote.

Corbyn needs to be careful that Remainers do not lose patience with him and move en masse to vote for the Lib Dems, especially in a list system election where voting Lib Dem doesn’t hand the seat to a Tory. My guess is the EP elections will prove almost as difficult for Labour as for the Tories with Brexiteers gravitating to extreme right parties, and Remainers gravitating to the Lib Dems.

But for the EU, all of this is potentially a win win, even if Nigel Farage and some extreme UKIPers are re-elected to the Parliament, provided that Remain supporting candidates are in the majority. This really could be the Remainer’s last chance, and they had better show up at the polls this time around. If more than 17.4 Million voters show up and support Remain supporting candidates, the argument could be over.

French diplomats have characterised suggestions by some EU Officials that the UK might only be offered a “long extension”, perhaps 12 months, as “clumsy.” There are still some discussion to be had before this scenario could come about. The EU Council must agree any extension by unanimity or the UK is out without a deal on 12th. April. That should concentrate minds in the meantime.

Reality can have a hard edge.

Almost three years after the Brexit referendum  and two years after she lost her overall parliamentary majority, Theresa May has decided she needs to talk to opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn in order to forge a consensus on the way forward. Even more shockingly, she is going to abide by “the will of Parliament” if it supports an alternative to her My deal, no deal, or no Brexit approach.

No, this is not a belated April Fools Day story. Apparently, this process is going to be complete by next Wednesday, April 10th., in time for the emergency European Council meeting, where she hopes to get agreement to a further short A.50 notification extension to enable a new deal to be negotiated with the EU, agreed by parliament, and implemented in law.

Apparently this process is to be completed by the 22nd. May so that the UK doesn’t have to participate in the European Parliament elections. Good luck with that. For a country which has routinely accused the EU of lacking in democracy, the UK government seems to be absolutely determined to avoid participating in European Parliamentary elections, a second confirmatory public vote, or indeed a general election.
Indeed, if Corbyn were to insist that any deal they might agree must be put to a public confirmatory vote, we could be looking at a 6 months extension being required. Why would he agree any deal with May without one? He needs to inoculate Labour against any complicity in the political chaos and economic downsides the whole Brexit process has precipitated. The only way for him to do so is to pass the ultimate responsibility for any deal onto the people themselves.

So it has to be extremely doubtful that the EU Council will agree to a further A.50 extension which does not involve UK participation in the European Parliament elections. In some ways that vote could also be a useful indicator of how political opinion is shifting among the people of the UK as a whole. No doubt UKIP, Nigel Farage, and perhaps even the BNP will do well. But will Brexiteer parties as a whole outvote parties supporting Remain or a second confirmatory vote?  Perhaps the EU would like to know?

In the meantime, May’s premiership limps on. According to BBC correspondent, Laura Kuenssberg, 14 cabinet minsters opposed seeking a further A.50 extension, with only 10 Ministers in favour. More resignations to follow? More Tory leaders more concerned with burnishing their Tory Leadership credentials than dirtying their bibs compromising with Corbyn?

We could arrive at the extraordinary situation where a May/Corbyn compromise deal receives more support from Labour MPs rather than Tory MPs. Certainly the DUP and ERG appear to have overplayed their hands, and forced May into the arms of the political leader they hate and fear most. Apparently 170 Tory MPs have written to Theresa May seeking her immediate resignation – a majority of the Tory parliamentary party.

But of course they shot their bolt last December when they lost a confidence vote in her leadership with party rules forbidding another leadership heave until next December.  So now the only way of getting rid of her would be to vote no confidence in her government and risk a general election. Probably the only thing they fear more right now. So at the moment the May Corbyn talks seem to be the only game in town.

But the May Corbyn talks might also be taken over by events. Opinion in the country seems to be bifurcating between Remainers and no deal Brexiteers who don’t want any compromise with the EU whatsoever. Those advocating a negotiated soft Brexit could find themselves being overtaken by the extremes on either side. It will become increasingly difficult for Labour to ride both Remain and Leave horses at once. Again, a second confirmatory public vote may be the only way of squaring that circle.

From the EU’s point of view, today’s events mark another win. The DUP is about the only party or grouping still holding out hope for changes in the Withdrawal Agreement. All everyone else is talking about is changes to the (non-legally binding) political declaration which the EU has always been willing to consider.

The EU has also been increasingly focused on preparations for a no-deal Brexit, with particular attention being paid to assuring the integrity of the Customs Union and Single Market while also being true to the letter and spirit of the Good Friday Agreement – which is predicated on having an open border between Ireland and N. Ireland. Varadker is meeting Macron today, and Merkel is due to travel to Dublin on Thursday.

Very little has been revealed of the substance of their discussions and the subject is almost taboo in Ireland, for fear of legitimating Brexiteer claims that Brexit need not result in a hard border. There is no good solution here which may cause the EU Council to be quite patient with the UK in the hope that better options will somehow emerge later.

A UK government minister, commenting on the political chaos in Westminster, opined that at least in the UK their were no riots in the street (unlike France) or government shut downs (as in the USA). How much longer can the current crisis continue without even that boast becoming untrue?

The Daily Mail, formerly the chief cheerleader for Brexit and mouthpiece for “ordinary conservatives,” and latterly (after a change of editor) chief cheer leader for Theresa May:

Theresa May was humiliated last night after EU leaders took control of Brexit and gave her a fortnight ‘flextension’ to get MPs to vote for her deal after calling her make-or-break summit display ‘evasive’ and ‘confused’.

Britain will not leave the EU until at least next month after a late-night deal in Brussels where European leaders rejected Mrs May’s appeal for an extension until June 30 after her plea for a three-month delay fell flat.

Instead they offered to extend Article 50 until May 22 – only if the Prime Minister gets her deal through Parliament next week.

But they warned her that if the deal was not passed she must make a decision by April 12 – just three weeks’ time – amid growing rumours Mrs May could have quit by then.

Today Theresa May texted EU leaders and told them she would miss day two of the Brussels summit to return to London ‘to work on getting the withdrawal deal passed’.

But slamming her approach Tory backbencher Michael Fabricant appeared to compared Theresa May to Neville Chamberlain, who signed a disastrous appeasement deal with Hitler, and said: ‘At this difficult time we need a Churchill, not a Chamberlain’.

Insiders said EU leaders were visibly bemused during last night’s Brexit debate described as ’90 minutes of nothing’ where Mrs May appeared ‘evasive, had no plan and even seemed confused’ when asked what she will do if her deal is voted down again.

One prime minister told aides afterwards: ‘The only thing that came through with clarity was her lack of a plan’ and one EU aide said afterwards: ‘She didn’t have a plan, so they needed to come up with one for her’.

Mrs May was ejected from the dinner and forced to eat alone as the talks continued to overcome the split and EU leaders then rejected her June 30 extension.

One senior EU official told Politico that after the PM left the room French President Emmanuel Macron said loudly that he believed Mrs May’s deal had a 10 per cent chance of getting through the Commons but added: ‘After listening to her, I now think five per cent’ before Donald Tusk grimaced and chipped in that this ‘sounded too optimistic’.

Reportedly Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, (all Tory Backbenchers) has told Theresa May that members think it is time for her to go. She will probably be allowed (Bercow permitting) to have one last chance to get her deal passed by the House of Commons now that it comes complete with rather short deadlines set by the EU Council. Most people still expect it to be defeated by rather a large (if lesser) margin. It will now be, effectively, a vote of confidence in her leadership.

If she doesn’t resign after that Jeremy Corbyn will probably table another motion of no-confidence which he could win with some Tory abstentions. Constitutionally, the Tories will then have two weeks to elect a new leader and win a vote of confidence – otherwise a general election will ensue.

The rules of the Conservative Party provide for the Parliamentary party to nominate two members to stand for election by the general party membership. If one of the nominated two withdraws (as Andrea Leadsom did in 2016), the remaining nominee becomes Leader. Otherwise a ballot of members is organised to close “as soon as is practicable” which in 2016 was not deemed to be until September 9th. – over two months after the selection of two candidates by the Parliamentary party.

It is as yet unclear if Graham Brady (charged with organising the Tory leadership election) would deem a closing date prior to May 22nd. to be practicable. So a longer extension of the A. 50 notification period – and participation in the European Parliament elections – would probably be required – ironically to facilitate a Tory leadership contest. The EU Council may not be overly keen to facilitate the election of an even more extreme Tory Brexiteer leader, but would probably feel obliged to allow democracy (albeit in-party democracy) to take its course.

In the meantime the Tories would also have to win a confidence vote in the House of Commons (if they had lost a previous one) with May as temporary leader. Presumably fear of a Corbyn premiership would induce the DUP and Tory rebels to support it.

Over a dozen Tory hopefuls are said to be preparing leadership campaigns, with Jeremy Hunt’s said to be the most sophisticated and advanced. Some Tory MP’s have said they will resign the party whip if Boris Johnson is elected. His chief problem will be to unite Brexiteer MPs behind him with so many other candidates crowding the Brexiteer field.

It is also unclear who the more establishment and centrist MPs will unite behind. Gove? Fox? Hunt? However it seems likely that no Tory Remainer need apply. Even if they could win one of the two Parliamentary party nominations, the Tory membership is said to be hard Brexiteer, with an average age of 70+, and with a large influx of ex UKIP members moving it steadily to the right.

So it seems certain that the next Tory leader will be a hard “no deal” Brexiteer, even if hard Brexiteers are a minority within the Parliamentary party. If it is Boris Johnson, he may not win election as Prime Minister in the House of Commons if some Remainer Tories carry out their threat to resign the whip. Then we will have a general election fought to obtain a mandate for a “no deal” Brexit.

At least the EU Council will have gotten their wish of “a major constitutional event” to justify a long A.50 extension, but I would not rule out a Boris Johnson win. The vagaries of the UK electoral system mean that even a party with only 35% of the overall vote could win an overall majority if the opposing votes are divided and scattered enough.

Who would do a better job of unifying the vote behind them?: Johnson with the Brexit vote, or Corbyn with the Remain/ambivalent/soft Brexit vote? It seems the Remain vote is inherently more divided. Certainly Johnson would be a lot more effective campaigner than Theresa May ever was, though that wouldn’t be hard.

So all in all, still far to many variables and imponderables to make a firm prediction, although the odds still seem slightly stacked in favour of a hard no deal Brexit – absent a huge surge in the Remain vote behind Jeremy Corbyn.

The UK government has requested an extension of the A.50 notification period until June 30th. This creates the awkward situation whereby the UK is still a member of the EU on the 23rd. May, when all members are legally obliged to hold European Parliament elections. It also created problems for EU leaders as the letter requesting the delay came too late for many EU leaders to consult with their parliaments – as they would normally do – before taking a position on it at the EU Council.

Donald Tusk, speaking on behalf of the European Council says “he believes a short extension to A.50 will be possible”, but only on condition of the House of Commons voting in favour of the draft Withdrawal Agreement. It is available to enable the required legislation to be passed, but not to engage in further procrastination or discussions on the draft Withdrawal Agreement.

Theresa May, for her part, has spoken directly to the UK People in a TV broadcast over the heads of MPs saying it is time for MPs to stop squabbling and engaging in arcane procedural wrangling. MPs have not responded well, branding her talk pointless, insulting, and arrogant. Dominic Grieve, a leading Conservative Remainer and former Attorney General says “he has never been more ashamed to be a member of the Conservative party” and that he will oppose the Prime Minister unless the Withdrawal Agreement is put the the people in a public vote.
A thousand days after the Brexit referendum, it looks as if everyone has lost patience and trust in Theresa May. Only an actual vote in favour of the deal in the House of Commons will suffice for the EU. Ironically for a process which was to enable the British people to “take back control”, the UK’s future is now largely in the hands of the European Council.

Theresa May’s maladroit handling of the crisis continues apace. She invited opposition leaders to Downing street for talks. Corbyn walked out when he realised former Labour MP Chuka Umunna was also an invitee. As Leader of the Opposition, he  felt entitled to the one on one meeting he had asked for at Prime Minister’s questions. Clearly, Theresa May was not intent on having any serious negotiations with the only Leader who could have provided a majority for her deal.

Hectoring and disparaging her opponents has been Theresa May’s default setting, and both the EU Council and the House of Commons have had enough of it. Insulting the MPs she needs to support her deal seems a strange way of seeking their support. In reality it was a last throw of the dice. Theresa May is history, and she knows it.

The real question now is whether the EU would even agree to a delay to enable the election of a new Tory leader. Why facilitate the election of an extreme Brexiteer who would only ratchet up the rhetoric and tension still further? The EU has allowed itself to be the bogeyman and fall-guy in this process for long enough.

It is time for the UK to stew in its own juices.

It was Karl Marx who observed that “history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce”. Clearly we are reaching the farcical stages of the Brexit Greek tragedy.

Just yesterday the Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, gave the official closing oration urging the House to support a government motion and saying it was in the national interest, and then voted against it. The Government’s Chief Whip, Julian Smith, charged with whipping it’s members to support the motion abstained. Eight cabinet ministers voted against the government, and still did not resign or face dismissal.

A government motion seeking support for May’s deal is defeated by 149 votes – the fourth largest margin of defeat for a government in history – and yet the government proposes to bring the same motion before the house again next week.  The House of Commons votes decisively against a “no deal” Brexit and for a delay in Brexit itself, and yet has no idea what it will do with that extra time.

Those voting in favour of a “no deal” Brexit claim they are doing so to put pressure on the EU in the negotiations, seemly unaware that those negotiations are over. There hasn’t been a serious negotiation since November and even all attempts at “clarifications” in accompanying documents are at an end.

The Attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, no doubt having examined the contents of his codpiece, seeks to add three paragraphs to his earlier, decisive, legal advice claiming that under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties the UK could cancel the Irish Backstop if “unforeseen circumstances arise” and drawing derision and scorn from experts in the field. How can you trust a country as a negotiating counterparty if they are proposing breaking it before the ink has dried on their signature?

And yet all the while EU leaders are unfailingly courteous and helpful: would you like more time? How much more time would you like? Is there anything else we can help you with? Barnier greets Theresa May with a kiss and warm hug. Juncker doesn’t even pinch her bottom. It must be bloody infuriating to be a Brexiteer at times. Just when you need a good bogeyman, he refuses to turn up.

But could it be a case of the spider welcoming a fly into its web?
For one thing, any extension beyond 22nd. May would require the UK to take part in European Parliament Elections – neatly undercutting the Brexiteer “the EU is undemocratic” mantra and providing Remainers with a platform to make their case and show their numbers on favourable terrain. Surprisingly both Nigel Farage, at the head of an imaginary party, and UKIP are both planning to contest those elections undercutting any “the elections are irrelevant” meme. Perhaps he just loves the EP and the attention it provides too much.

For another, what can be a more delicious irony than watching the British elite make a complete mess of everything having lectured the EU for 45 years on their superior pedigree, traditions, leadership and negotiating skills. Brexit has become a sitcom that could continue for years casting the EU as the adult in the room while the children in Britain squabbled. Brexit is the ideal distraction from the EU elite’s own shortcomings.

So is it time for the people of Europe to call for an end to the charade, put Britain out of its misery, accept the reality of a no deal Brexit, refuse an A. 50 extension, and get back to the challenges of fixing the many real problems facing the EU and its citizens? No deal may not be in anyone’s economic self-interest, but are we getting to the stage where it is in the collective political self interest of the EU27 to put an end to this farce? Indeed is that now the only remaining realistic political option available to the EU?

Strangely, I would argue, no, not now. The Brexit debacle can act as a cautionary tale for voters contemplating voting for eurosceptic parties throughout Europe. Having something to unite around is no bad thing for the morale and functioning of the institutions of Europe as well. But most crucially, the EU must avoid becoming labelled as the culprit if and when all of this goes horribly wrong. “We gave you every opportunity to change your minds” will be the refrain.

If anyone thinks the current negotiations have been difficult, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. It will not be long after a “no deal” Brexit when the UK comes screaming for deals on everything from aviation to medicines, security cooperation to food standards – and all the while insisting on no immigration, no trading barriers, no contribution to the EU budget, and no recognition of the rights of EU citizens in Britain or of the jurisdiction of the ECJ. Responsibility for this mess will have to be clearly seen to be the UK’s, and the UK’s alone.

Brexiteers keep insisting that they want a “clean break” from the EU while maintaining all their current privileges. The Sunday Telegraph even headlined a poll claiming that 44% of Britons support a no-deal Brexit. Buried in the small print was the fact that the same respondents backed Remain over Leave by 46% to 39%.

So what the EU is actually doing is preparing for a long and difficult trade war. If a no deal Brexit actually happens, all hell will break loose, and it will be important to have maximum cohesion and unity on your side. Brexiteers have always mistaken EU “reasonableness” for weakness. Many are still expecting the EU to “cave” at the last minute, as if the negotiations were ongoing. But that reasonableness is actually a sign of confidence and strength. There has been no need for lies on the EU side.

Letter published by the Irish Times.

Countering North-South mistrust

A chara, – Una Mullally writes that “North-South dialogue and cohesion must avoid unionist vs nationalist binaries” (“Southern patriotic grandstanding must stop if we want a united Ireland”, Opinion & Analysis, March 11th).

My late wife, Muriel Boothman, was chairwoman of the Blessington Women’s Group, then the largest rural local women’s group in Ireland. Some 30 years ago they were organising family exchanges where Protestant women from the North stayed with Catholic families in the South and vice versa. For many it was a daunting and then a transformative experience because most had never been across the Border before and had visions of being hunted with pitchforks! They came to realise that our similarities far exceed our differences, and even our differences didn’t amount to much more than cultural anachronisms.

In my youth, I did some youth work in the north inner city of Dublin, and there were many teenagers who hadn’t been west of Capel Street, south of the Liffey, or north of Fairview. Similarly in Lurgan, where the denizens of some sectarian ghettoes had hardly ever been in the houses and estates of their opposite numbers. So, yes, there is lot of cross-community work which needs to be done, both within and between North and south, which no formal referendum or inter-governmental agreement can achieve.

This doesn’t need to be a highfalutin philosophical debate. Playing Gaelic, soccer or rugby together, sharing educational systems and cultural events, economic links and social campaigns can all play their part.

But this is why Brexit is such a tragedy and keeping the Border open so important. Anything which reignites tensions could set us back a generation, and those who stoke those tensions should rightly be shunned. Some in the North may be more comfortable with “the good old days” where you knew whose side you were on, and who to hate and fight. Others in the South who have done well out of recent economic growth may wonder why they should take on the financial, social and political risks and costs of reunification.

It’s much more difficult to be open and accepting of differences and creating relationships across boundaries. But it can be done and I am hopeful that the younger generation coming through to power will achieve it. Opinion polls of social attitudes show younger people identifying less and less with simple Catholic versus Protestant and nationalist versus unionist binaries.

True unity will come, if at all, not when nationalists outnumber unionists, but when the vast majority cease to care about the distinctions, or at least recognise them for what they are: minor differences compared to the greater humanity that unites us. The success of the Derry Girls comedy series among all demographics should remind us of that fact. – Yours, etc,

FRANK SCHNITTGER,

Blessington, Co Wicklow.

After the debacle of David Davis’s no show in Brussels, Dominic Raab’s token appearance as a Brexiteer Brexit secretary not actually in charge of any negotiation, and Stephan Barkley’s convincing impersonation of a total non-entity in the role, the UK badly needed a heavyweight negotiator to do some heavy lifting in Brussels. Enter, stage left, Geoffrey Cox, a Queen’s Counsel recently appointed attorney general to cast his legal eye over proceedings.

It is not going well. According to Bloomberg, Cox’s flamboyant style is not going down well in Brussels, but at least his Commons reference to looking inside Cox’s codpiece to check everything is still in full working order provided some much needed light relief. He caused consternation and incredulity in Brussels and in Ireland by his claim that the Backstop could breach human rights law and EU briefings on the progress of the talks have been dismissive and uniformly gloomy.

In what seems like utter frustration, the EU is offering to go back to their original proposal of a N. Ireland only backstop. It was Theresa May who insisted it should apply to all of the UK – at the insistence of the DUP – to avoid a border down the Irish sea. Many in the EU were actually concerned at giving such a huge concession to the UK – cost free access to the Customs Union when Norway pays dearly for the privilege of access to the Single Market. The UK were actually using the border issue as a lever to prize open continued access to the Customs Union for free – but as usual, the Brexiteers were too stupid to recognise a gift horse when they were offered it.

For the uninitiated, a codpiece is a medieval item of clothing used to cover and/or accentuate the mail genitalia. As one senior Tory ERG member observed:

“It is said codpieces were developed either to facilitate greater freedom of movement from highly restrictive hosiery or to hide venereal disease,” one senior Tory Eurosceptic observed to me. “I sincerely hope Cox’s is more of the former than the latter!”

In the meantime, Her Majesty’s government is doing its level best to screw up community relations in Northern Ireland even further.

Having a mediocre, gaffe-prone, secretary of state responsible for Northern Ireland would be precarious at the best of times. That responsibility for Northern Ireland has been left in the hands of Karen Bradley at this crucial moment is truly reckless.

The potential for lasting damage to the North’s peace process through ministerial incompetence from London has been ever present since Stormont was suspended. This week that risk became a reality.

It was shocking to hear Bradley tell the House of Commons that the killings by the military and police were not crimes but that they were all “people acting under orders and fulfilling their duty in a dignified and appropriate way”.

It is difficult to understate how crass and destructive Bradley’s comments were. They were, of course, insensitive to the families of those killed in such incidents. They were damaging to the delicate task of dealing with the legacy of the Troubles. Her contribution also again exposed her lack of knowledge or understanding of the complexity of Northern Ireland’s troubled history and its present-day politics.

It was no coincidence that her remarks were uttered in response to a question from a Democratic Unionist Party MP, Emma Little-Pengelly. Such is the effort and instinct of the current Tory government to lean towards the DUP and its narrative, even on legacy issues, that it seems they will say anything to assuage the DUP irrespective of the harm done to the British government’s capacity, limited as it was, to be a broker across the North’s divide.

Bradley’s remarks will have consequences which will manifest themselves immediately and in the medium term. What she had to say will be deployed repeatedly in both the political and legal realms to resist prosecutions for any of the crimes and collusion committed by members of the British forces during their long dirty war in Northern Ireland.

Even if Bradley’s remarks as secretary of state don’t operate to stop such prosecutions, they will be referenced repeatedly before juries by defence counsel in any such cases to suggest official government scepticism of the appropriateness of putting anyone on trial for those crimes.

As the official voice of government in Northern Ireland, speaking in parliament itself, Bradley placed a substantial load on the scales against the prospect of successfully prosecuting any security officer for murder or manslaughter in Northern Ireland, irrespective of the circumstances in which they killed.

Her remarks came in the context of a decision, due soon, as to whether British soldiers will be prosecuted for shooting and killing entirely innocent unarmed civilians and in a week when British Intelligence was implicated in plotting a massacre at a Catholic School.

An Irish Times opinion poll in Northern Ireland has found that:

Two-thirds of all voters (67 per cent) say the DUP is doing a bad job of representing Northern Ireland at Westminster, while 69 per cent of people – including 57 per cent of those from a Protestant background – are dissatisfied with DUP leader Arlene Foster.

Strikingly, the poll shows that in the event of a hard Brexit, more voters would favour checks on goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland than would favour checks on the Border.

Almost half of all voters (48 per cent) disagree with Northern Ireland leaving the EU on the same terms as the UK if it means border checks in Ireland. But 59 per cent say they want a special arrangement for Northern Ireland for no checks on the Border – even if it means some checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and the North.

But by far the biggest majority (67 per cent) is in support of a very soft Brexit where the UK stays in the EU single market and the customs union to avoid the need for checks anywhere.

Northern voters are divided on whether there should be another Brexit referendum; but if there was one, they would vote overwhelmingly (59 per cent) to remain in the EU.

It must be remembered that Northern Ireland hasn’t had a devolved government in more than two years – after relations between the DUP and Sinn Fein broke down after years of perceived insults and Arlene Foster’s refusal to take any responsibility for her involved in the Renewable Heat Incentive Scandal. Brexit has now opened the rift into a chasm and yet there is no ongoing process trying to resolve matters.

Sinn Fein’s 7 MP’s don’t take their seats in Westminister, the SDLP is trying to save itself from redundancy by merging with Fianna Fail, and Northern Ireland is about to lose its three Members of the European Parliament. It was therefore a bit of a master stroke by Leo Varadker to offer Mark Durkin, former leader of the SDLP, a nomination to represent Fine Gael in the Dublin Constituency. At least the people of N. Ireland may have one representative, other than the DUP, representing them somewhere.

Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nigel Farage: The joke is on them

Part of the Brexiteer mythology is that the EU is made up of incompetent and unprincipled bureaucrats who can be counted on to come grovelling for a compromise even if only at the last minute. To their discomfort and horror there is still no sign of the EU27 caving and all of Theresa May’s best efforts at divide and conquer tactics have been in vain. If there is one takeaway from this almost wholly sad Brexit episode it is that, remarkably, the EU27 have stood united behind one of their smallest members and maintained a coherent negotiating position throughout.

And so it is that the UK is staring into the abyss of a no deal Brexit unless they can come up with a better idea pretty sharpish… If there is one majority in the House of Commons for anything, besides the government’s sense of self preservation, it is that a majority want the no deal “option” taken off the table. It was all very well as a negotiating tactic to scare the EU27 into an agreement, but it has become increasingly obvious that it is nothing more than a wilful act of self-harm.

It wasn’t meant to be like this. “Having your cake and eating it” was meant to be a cake walk. Negotiating a future relationship with the EU was meant to be “the easiest deal in history”. But somehow, unaccountably, the EU27 individually and collectively decided that preserving the integrity of the Single Market and Customs Union was more important than short term economic pain. The German car industry didn’t come running to Merkel to tell her to tell the Commission to cut a deal at all costs. Even more annoyingly, some upstart former colony was allowed to dictate the EU terms of engagement…

So as zero hour and B-day approaches it has been the UK which has blinked first. The hard line approaches by both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have been undermined by their own back-benchers and both have had to modify their previous stances. First Corbyn announced he was finally prepared to support a second referendum having failed to defeat May’s deal or precipitate a general election.

Now Theresa May has announced that if her deal is defeated a second time, she will allow a vote on the “no deal” option, and if that, too, fails (as expected) she will support a proposal to request an extension to the A.50 deadline. Everyone knows that that, in itself, will solve nothing, except perhaps serve to further puncture or at least deflate the Brexiteer balloon.  But essentially they are throwing themselves at the mercy of the EU Council, which must support any such a request with unanimous approval.

The EU Council, for its part, might well impose some preconditions – such as a requirement that the extension is used either to approve and implement May’s deal or to organise a second referendum and/or a general election. What seems certain is that any further extension – beyond, perhaps, an initial three months, will only be approved if a second referendum or a general election is in prospect. The Withdrawal Agreement (May’s deal) will not be re-negotiated. It is up to the UK to come up with an alternative option if they don’t like that deal.

In the meantime the UK would have to take part in the EU Parliamentary elections in May, providing a platform for Remainers and undermining the “EU is Undemocratic” narrative so beloved of Brexiteers. Farage will have to decide whether to stand for a Parliament he effects to despise. Then there is a whole summer for UK tourists to “Europe” to contemplate the joys of applying for visas, green cards and international driving licences, standing in line in the “non -EU” queue alongside various third world “foreigners”, and getting less Euros for their Pound.

Any second referendum, if it is held, will involve a straight choice between May’s deal, the only Brexit on offer, or Remain. The only thing achieved by Parliament over the past three years will have been to take “no deal” off the table. Some Brexiteers might well be tempted to advocate for abstention in the referendum on the grounds that either option is unacceptable. Then they could at least claim credit for the c. 30% to 60% of the electorate who don’t turn out to vote in referenda in any case. Either way the Brexiteer vote could be split between support for May’s deal and not voting in the second referendum at all – in disgust at the whole process.

In those circumstances I could see the Remain option supported by a 2:1 majority of those who do vote – reminiscent of the 1975 referendum vote which too, supported continued EU membership be a 2:1 majority: A vote which seems to have been consigned into the black memory hole of history. May’s deal is almost universally reviled even though it contains a huge concession by the EU – effectively continued membership of the Single Market and Customs Union without the requirement to allow free movement of workers or pay Norway style contributions to the EU budget. There will be many in the EU who will breath a sigh of relief if it is ultimately rejected.

From an Irish perspective, at least we will no longer be jeered at by Brexiteers for voting twice on the Treaties of Nice and Lisbon. The people are allowed to change their minds, especially in the light of new information and the creation of a more informed electorate motivated to turn out in greater numbers. I don’t hear too many complaining that we finally changed our minds on abortion and voted to reverse the 1983 referendum result banning it in all circumstances.

But from a British perspective the political repercussions could be more traumatic. May will inevitably have to resign if “her” deal is ultimately rejected by the electorate, especially by such a margin. Much irreversible economic damage will have been done to the UK economy. But above all, such a volte face will result in the loss of much face in the diplomatic world. It will be some time before the UK is taken seriously on the world stage again, if ever.

But of course it won’t stop the British Brexiteers whinging about the EU, any more than the decisive 2:1 referendum vote in favour of continued membership did in 1975. Some people will always have to have something to whinge about – anything really – as long as it doesn’t point to their own responsibility. But will anyone else ever take them seriously again? BoJo may have his £300K p.a. once a week column in the Daily Telegraph. But who else beyond the Tory pensioners who read the Telegraph will care?

The repercussions for the DUP will also be serious, if not terminal, in Northern Ireland. Depending on whether the DUP end up supporting May’s deal or not – in itself a humiliating volte face – Brexit could well be defeated by a 90:10 margin in Northern Ireland the second time around. Even pro-Brexit Unionist voters will not lightly forgive the DUP for throwing in their lot with a cabal of Brexiteer chancers in London – to the detriment of community relations and economic prosperity in N. Ireland – and bringing the whole question of a United Ireland into play again. Sinn Fein will likely become the leading party in any subsequent election, with the Unionist vote split between the DUP, UUP and splinter groups.

However it will not benefit Sinn Fein much in the rest of Ireland. Here Leo Varadker will claim the lions share of the credit. Even some of his staunches critics have had to concede that he has played Ireland’s cards masterfully, building an EU consensus and holding the line when the going got tough. It may not save him at the polls when his other short comings are evaluated – a failure to address Ireland’s housing and health care crises – and a failure to achieve some measure of inter-generational justice: The young are being held hostage by the rentier class.

But then Brexit, as a whole, has served as a monumental distraction from the real issues facing the the UK and the EU: The issues of globalisation and growing inequality between the owners of capital and workers, between different regions within the EU, between urban and rural, young and old. Between public austerity and squalor and private wealth and conspicuous consumption. Hopefully soon we will be able to start prioritising those issues again. Brexit has already dragged on for far too long.