Author: Marie3

A statement from Morris Dees We’ve Lost a Champion.

It is with great sadness that we announce the passing of legendary civil rights activist Julian Bond, SPLC’s first president. He was 75 years old and died last evening, August 15, in Fort Walton Beach, Florida.

From his days as the co-founder and communications director of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee in the 1960s to his chairmanship of the NAACP in the 21st century, Julian was a visionary and tireless champion for civil and human rights. He served as the SPLC’s president from our founding in 1971 to 1979, and later as a member of its board of directors.

With Julian’s passing, the country has lost one of its most passionate and eloquent voices for the cause of justice. He advocated not just for African Americans, but for every group, indeed every person subject to oppression and discrimination, because he recognized the common humanity in us all.

Julian is survived by his wife, Pamela Horowitz, a former SPLC staff attorney, and his five children.

Not only has the country lost a hero today, we’ve lost a great friend.

Julian Bond was a true class act.  

Why his passing fills some of us older folks with sadness is that it’s a reminder of what was never to be.  He was the man we envisioned would someday be the first African American President.  The optimism of youth.  Yet somehow all the right pieces for this right man never fell into place.

1972 — not yet old enough to be the VP nominee and he also hadn’t been in 1968.

Georgia was not then nor now ready for an African American Senator or Governor.

1976 and 1980 – Jimmy Carter.  Not legal for both nominees to be from the same state.  However, that wasn’t relevant as Bond and Carter were from two different wings of the Democratic Party.

1984 – Mondale went with a different kind of statement.  

With the rise of the DLC, there was no place for someone as authentic and elegant as Julian Bond.

Our loss.    

3 January 1961 United States severs diplomatic relations with Cuba.  DDE adminstration.

17-19 April 1961 – Bay of Pigs Invasion.  The IKE/Nixon plan and JFK operation to overthrow Fidel Castro.

30 November 1961 – Presidential memorandum

“we will use our available assets
to…help Cuba overthrow the Castro regime.”

20 February 1962 Operation Mongoose plan to overthrow Fidel Castro submitted.

16-28 October 1962 – Cuban Missile Crisis.
1962 through ??? Cuban Project

14 August 2015 US embassy in Cuba formally reopens

So, what was it all about?  How many tens of millions of dollars were squandered for NOTHING other than to make Cuba a long-term enemy of the US.  (Also to bring this country and Cuba to the brink of a nuclear exchange.)

(Note: the US embassy in Havana wasn’t physically abandoned, but Americans don’t pay much attention to such details.  The symbolism was all they required to hate-hate-hate Cuba and Fidel Castro.  Also, the US Ambassador’s residence was neither abandoned nor appropriated by the Cuban government.  it was just called something else and kept even more secret from Americans than the US Interests Section in Havana.  Disclosure: in the early 1990s I was privy to some information about the “Ambassador’s” residence.  Only enough to become aware of its existence and was told to keep the information confidential.)

If Americans weren’t so nuts and didn’t cling so tightly to anti-whatever propaganda for generations, Jimmy Carter might have been able to re-open the Embassy thirty odd years ago.

Claudette Colvin?

Because the Civil Rights movement in 1955 wasn’t a disorganized rabble unable to articulate objectives and formulate strategies devoid of positive PR.  Parks wasn’t some random poor and tired Black seamstress that just for once refused to give up her seat to a white person.  She was an experienced activist.  Chosen because she could shine a light on injustice and ordinary white folks could empathize with this fine, hardworking, seamstress.  There was nothing negative about Ms. Parks that could be used against her to undermine her stand.

Colvin was a fine, young black girl as well.  But she was only fifteen years old.  A protest operation to tackle the Montgomery Bus discrimination had not yet fully formed when she was arrested for refusing to move to “the back of the bus.”  As it became more organized in the months after that, rallying around Colvin was still problematic because of her age but also because she was by then pregnant.

The political barrier and challenges fo BLM today aren’t anywhere near what they were for the civil rights movements in the 1940’s-1960’s.  AA couldn’t vote throughout much of the south.  Were denied seats in restaurants and theaters.  Civil rights workers, both AA and white, were murdered.  And they didn’t spend their time over-runing restaurants that welcomed both AA and white customers.

The defenses for the “BLM” actions that targetted Sanders have varied, but a few get repeated.

All you white liberals didn’t object to Code Pink actions.

No, we didn’t.  Then again, in 2004 when Barbara Boxer was runnning for re-election, Code Pink didn’t oust her from the stage of a campaign rally and demand that she and her supporters do more about endeding the Iraq War and that no other issues were appropriate for her campaign than that one.

Yeah, well what about OWS?

OWS had difficulty holding on to their own mics.  There weren’t at All Saint’s Episcopal Church, or any other liberal house of worship, pushing the preacher out of the pulpit.  They weren’t picketing mom and pop stores or demanding to be fed by them.

White liberals are just too panty-waist to embrace in-your-face political actions

See above: Code Pink.

The lesson we can take from NAACP, SCLC action/protests and Rosa Parks is organize and get all your ducks in a row before commencing a protest.  And recognize that results won’t come quickly or easily.

The Black Panther Party for Self-Defense was fighting a less apparent and possibly more insidious form of racism than what existed in the south.  Unlike the economic deprivation that AA residents in the south had experienced for close to a hundred years with improvements for some but at a very slow pace, it wasn’t much more than  a generation of AAs that  migrated from the south to the west and midwest and experienced vastly improved financial circumstances before factory and low skill jobs began to disappear and with that their financial well-being.  

In the west, white migration was strong from WWII on and the demarcation lines between communities of color and whites became more rigid and AAs were less able to spread out into surrounding communities as their population grew.   Leaving school and other government services having to stretch a static of shrinking tax base over a larger population.

By the mid-sixties it was bad in Oakland and south central LA.  There was a need for the BPP.  However, with or without COINTELPRO to take them down and out, they alienated themselves from portions of the wider liberal community and foreshadowed the early demise when they picked up the guns.

There was no liberal/progressive/AA split at the time of this:

And many of us cheered for Tommie Smith and John Carlos as they gave their Black Power Salute in Mexico City.

Yet, could/should we have been in denial with regard to the murder of a cop (1967) by Huey Newton and ambush of Oakland police officers by Cleaver and Hutton two days after the assassination of MLK, Jr?  Excuse, rationalize, dismiss?

Extremists, and seriously unbalanced people, do gravitate towards movements seeking a better life and/or way of being.  But not so much formally joining such moverments but appropirating superficial symbols.  In 1969, Manson cult murder sprees and  
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altamont_Free_Concert
violence at Altamont were to the DFHs what later the SLA was the the BPP.  (Should add what the Weathermen were to the Anti-Vietnam War movement.)

Movements destroyed.  Missions not accomplished.  TPTB stronger than ever.

We all should have been more patient, listened better to the words of MLK, Jr, and never strayed from the long slog to completion of the task.  Then again powerful  and wealthy forces were against us, and we’re all too human and not half as smart as we need to be.

Which of those three, Jim Bob Duggar, Donald Trump, James Garner, do white men most identify with?

Which of those three do white men wish they were most like?

Do white men have a sad that they didn’t get a wife like Michelle and eighteen kids to support?  (Hey, guys that’s what happens without birth control, including abortion.)

A sad because they didn’t earn billions of dollars and didn’t get to be a “chick magnet” and marrry three hot ones, and produce six kids?

All of the candidates on the two stages last night were preaching for the life styles of the Duggars and Trumps.  And bomb, kill, impoverish POC that aren’t your housekeepers, cooks, nannies, gardeners, or commercial sex workers.  (And the only reason you can’t afford those employees is that the government taxes and public policies have deprived you of using your talents and skills to get filthy rich.)

Y’all feel that PC language that doesn’t disparage women, POC, non-heterosexuals, non-christians, and native peoples of other countries hampers your freedom of speech to use disgusting and revolting language.  And you’ve had enough of that.

I know you have wimmen folk that agree with you and encourage you to believe that you’re stud muffins.  But if given a choice would she have chosen you over James Garner?

Few of us begin life as physically attractive as Garner was, but as we age, who we are leaks through our pores.  Gives us an aura and personality that figures prominently in how attractive or unattractive we are to others.  Honorable, decent and good people also age better — and cosmetic surgery does nothing to alter that.

James Garner had one wife for 57 years.  If there were any infidelities, they are the best kept secrets in an industry not noted for fidelity or secrets.  Garner himself denied ever having strayed.

Two daughters (one adopted from his wife’s first marriage).  Apparently not viewing his manhood as tied to creating lots of little Garners.

None of that came easy for him.  His mother died when he was five, was shuffled around among relatives for a few years, and reunited with his father when he remarried.  The stepmother sounds like something out of Grimm’s fairytales.  He was on his own at age 16.

A tough start and it left tracks as he suffered depression for most of his life.  But as he said in a Rockford File episode, stay bitter, angry and miserable. Or move on.  (Half or more of the credit for his 57 year marriage does have to go to his wife, Lois Clarke.)

James Garner James Garner 1963 – March on Washington.

On women: …the discussion got to the issue of abortion and Garner says he answered, “I don’t have an opinion, because that’s up to the woman. It has nothing to do with me.”

Yet, non-safe abortions did have something to do with him.

“It wasn’t until I was fifteen that my cousin Betty told me my mother died of uremic poisoning after a botched abortion,” he wrote. “I have no idea whether my father was involved in the decision to have the abortion or whether he blamed himself for her death. We never talked about it in the family.”

On political aspirations

There’s one difference between me and [Schwarzenegger and Reagan]: I know I’m not qualified.”

Few of us are, but all of us can choose to be more decent, honest, and reputable than the jerkwads that were on display by the GOP in their first 2016 Presidential faux debates.  And the jerkwads that support any of them are no better.

And yes, Mr. Garner, if our only choice is from among unqualified persons for public office, we would have been better off with you than the seemingly never-ending parade of indecent, dishonest, and/or disreputable characters that have appeared on our ballots for decades.  

The local press and national news seems to be adequately covering this very large, week old wildfire.  The photos in the above link provide a good sense of the terrain and why under the right humidity and wind conditions that such a fire is difficult to contain.

CalFire was fantastic a few years ago when I was staying in a cabin that is to the west of the Rocky Fire and that ended up being within 300 feet of a brush fire.  I ended up having a front row seat to the whole event.  So, if any of you have any questions about the Rocky Fire, I might be able to supply a couple of answers.    

The LATimes report has some good pictures as well.
14 August 2015 – SF Gate Rocky Fire fully contained — Jerusalem nears same fate

The Jerusalem fire was roughly south of the Rocky fire and lapped into Napa County. Keeping fingers crossed as the temperature this weekend is higher than it has been.

The Soda Fire in Idaho as reported by The Guardian is a monster. There are several other fires in ID and OR that should not be considered insignificant.

Holmes may get the death penalty, but Ammunition Dealers have full immunity

The family of 24-year-old Jessica Ghawi, a victim in the 2012 movie theater shooting in Aurora, Colorado, is faced with more than $200,000 in legal costs after a federal judge ordered them to pay attorney’s fees for four ammunition dealers the family attempted to sue.

“They have taken our daughter, and now they want to take our worldly goods,” Lonnie Phillips told MSNBC’s Tamron Hall in a televised interview earlier this week. “I think that’s a little much.”

The legal impediment was:

The Protect the Gun and Ammo Industry Act – 2005 (aka: S. 397 (109th): Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act)
This was such a POS that even Lieberman voted “Nay.”  As did Ms. Clinton.

The gun/ammo industry Senate Democrats:

Blanche Lincoln (AR)
Mark Pryor (AR)
Ken Salazar (CO)
Bill Nelson (FL)
Mary Landrieu (LA)
Max Baucus (MT)
Ben Nelson (NB)
Harry Reid (NV)
Kent Conrad (ND)
Bryan Dorgan (ND)
Arlen Spector (PA)
Tim Johnson (SD)
Robert Byrd (WV)
Jay Rockefeller (WV)
Herb Kohl (WI)

(Not too many of them left to kick around now.)

Republican Senators that balked on this one:

Mike DeWine (OH)
Lincoln Chafee (RI)

Here’s the House Vote for your perusal.

Nice to see that one of my favorite liberal/progressive politician, Sherrod Brown*, voted “Nay.”  The same cannot be said for Bernie Sanders.  If he wants to claim that it was a rural v. urban vote,  then why did Patrick Leahy vote against it?

If Sanders has since changed his position, he should tell us that and why.  And what would he say to the parents of Jessica Ghawi who have been ordered to pay $200,000.

Sure wish these folks felt as passionate about protecting the women’s health care industry.

———

* Would be remiss in not noting that Brown defeated the incumbent Mike DeWine in 2006.  
Informational Update

July 20, 2012 – Aurora theater massacre

September 16, 2014 press release, Brady Center Sues Online Sellers of Ammunition and Equipment Used in Aurora Movie Theater Massacre.

CNN 9/17/14

Phillips, whose daughter Jessica Ghawi was shot and killed in the attack that left 12 dead and dozens wounded.

The lawsuit alleges that Lucky Gunner, the Sportman’s Guide, BulletProofBodyArmorHQ.com and BTP Arms negligently supplied Holmes.

3/27/15 Denver Post reported that the suit was dismissed. (Order as to the amount plaintiff had to pay came later.)

December 14, 2012 — Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre

December 12, 2015, WaPo:Newtown families sue rifle manufacturer, distributor and seller for wrongful death

…
Bushmaster has been sued before after mass shootings. In 2004, two survivors and the families of six victims in the 2002 Washington-area sniper shootings settled for $2.5 million after filing suit against Bushmaster and a gun shop. Attorneys for the plaintiffs in that case said it was the first time a gunmaker had to pay damages for crimes involving their weapons.
…

Congress and the POTUS sure acted fast on protecting Bushmaster after that, didn’t they?

While Fox is being non-transparent in how it will select the top ten candidates for the first debate, the RCP averages for the past month are a good enough guide.  So, we’ll see Trump, Walker, Bush, Rubio, Huckabee, Carson, Paul, Cruz, Kasich, and Christie.  They were all in debate prep last weekend, unless one believes that Trump plans to wing it.

Any guesses on the strategy of each of the contestants?  

How many are praying to big guy in the sky that told them to run for the Presidency to smite some of his (no her because Firorina isn’t going to make the cut) opponents?

My guess is that most of them will try to look Presidential and repeat bland talking points to give others room to double-fault.  Expect to see Walker, Rubio, and Carson stick to this mode.  Rubio is particularly flat on his feet; so, he won’t be impressing anyone in this debate.

Those that aggressively try to ace a question or go after another competitor (if that is allowed) can potentially score big or lose big.  Christie has little to lose and a big mouth; so, expect him to come out swinging.  Cruz has a bit more to lose, but he’s always in audacious fight mode.  So, he and Christie are going to have to jockey for airtime.

Huck is going to have trouble getting anywhere close to looking Presidential.  But he might manage not to say the stupidiest, most insulting, or most insane thing of the evening.

Paul will get testy at some point.  (Like daddy?)

Bush will attempt to adopt the Romney style of staying above the fray.  But the fray this time is larger, and unlike Romney he wasn’t in actual debates four years earlier and been prepping ever since then for this one.  Even odds if he shows irritation, says something stupid, or is so low energy that he melts into the backdrop curtains.  (Like daddy?)

Better than even odds (there’s a reason I don’t gamble) that Trump and Kasich find the Goldilocks zone in this debate.  Not too hot and not too cold.  Doesn’t mean that either or both of them can’t be tripped up.  Only that so far they appear to be more comfortable in their own skin than the others with the exception of Carson, who expects the debate to be easier than neurosurgery.

If history is any guide, good odds that they all get out of this one alive.  But at least two will see their poll ratings decline during the next few weeks.  Could be enough that they won’t make the cut for the next debate and leave an opening for the Perfessor, Cruella, or Jingle-bell.>

Your turn. Projecting is much more difficult than Monday Morning quarterbacking.

Will keep this short.  Your initial response to a new song (soundtrack release date 7/31/15) by Damien Rice, Hypnosis.

Simultaneously unlike and like a Rice tune.  

Overall, based on 6/30/15 FEC filing, I’d say his team is ticking off all the right boxes.

He ended the quarter with $12 million in cash which in comparison with the other campaigns, other than Clinton’s, is very good.  From a cost perspective, one negative may be the high percentage of contributions that are filtered through Act Blue.  On the plus side, it may be more convenient for donors and the money gets to his campaign quickly.  On the minus side, there are not insignificant “merchant fees.”  

On a related note, and before continuing with an assessment of his receipts and spending) is the Bernie Sanders Store.  It’s straightforward and basic T-shirts, mugs, buttons, bumper stickers, and signs.  One attractive (enough) and simple design in two different color styles.  The Hillary Clinton Shop has a wider variety of stuff.   Unattractive unless one likes her H-arrow logo.  (Difficult for me to believe that anyone wants a “Grillery Spatula” or faux crosstich pillow, but I pretty much loathe this sort of campaign or corporate promo junk.)  The major difference between the two stores is the price.  A Sanders’ T-shirt is $15 and the price of Hillary apparel starts at $25.

Receipt disclosures inform us that more than 250,000 people have donated to his campaign.  The bulk of the donations were less than $200.  Scrolling through the itemized donations, few are for $500 or more.   Maxi $2,700 donations are few and far between.  (They are numerous and prevalent in Hillary’s itemized donations.)   It’s not possible to determine if these early donors have dug as deep as they are capable of during this election cycle to jumpstart Sanders’ campaign.  Or it reflects their personal financial limitations during the second quarter.  And/or being cautious until they can see how viable Sanders can become with Democratic Party primary voters and how well he can run a campaign.  What makes this more like Dean’s 2004 campaign than Obama’s 2008 is that Sanders will not be getting big money support from Wall St. and other industries.  It’s more or less the little people that he is dependent on.  Many of whom still recall the significant amount of dollars from little people that seemingly disappeared in Howard Dean’s campaign.  Thus, those who support Sanders would be wise to watch how their dollars are being deployed.

So, what’s to like in the disbursement section of  Sanders’ FEC filing?  People.  In Iowa, NH, SC and a few other states in addition to the VT headquarter offices.  More hires, physical location offices, and equipment are essential to get in place during the next quarter.

Possibly most impressive is that out of the $3 million in expenditures, $1.265 million was for “Digital Consulting & Ad Buy.”  If his team has begun the process of placing TV “ad buy” orders, this demonstrates they know what they’re doing.  Getting this in place as early as possible both costs less and can lock in the better airtime slots.  (Of course, the quality of the ads is the most important key in effective TV advertising.)

Assuming that Sanders is attracting excellent talent and can easily scale up his operation to the level required to get through Super Tuesday in solid enough shape that he’s a real contender, what are the financial markers that should be seen in the next two quarters?

To assess that requires making a few assumptions.  1) Will not accept federal matching funds.  Two reasons, the in-state and total primary limitations may be too constraining and a lag time between securing the nomination and the DNC convention can hobble a campaign.  (While both conventions are scheduled for the end of July as they were in 2000, Gore was hurt by the early wrap up of the primary.) 2) Monthly operational costs not dedicated to specific primary/caucus efforts will be $2.5 million/month. 3) Savvy media buys like we’ve never seen before. 50/50 spending ratio for ground and ad buys in IA, NH, and SC.

The 2016 primary schedule is daunting but less so than it was  in  2008.  It does mean that most of the ducks through March have to be in their rows by 12/31/15.  Putting a price tag on that:

1. $22.5 million for Operation Central budget July through March
2. $8 million Iowa
3. $6 million New Hampshire
4. $7 million South Carolina
5. $4 million Nevada
6. $15 million — half the cost of Super Tuesday

Total $55.5 million.  Round up to $60 million to include $4.5 million contingency fund.

With 6/30 cash on hand of $12 million, not less than  $48 million must be raised during the next six months.  Gonna need a lot more donors.  Tall order, but doable.  Over half a million people donated to Howard Dean.  Sanders needs to do somewhat better than that.  And more donors contributing smaller amounts would be more robust than fewer donors making larger contributions.  Either way, his campaign will need to generate $8 million/month for him to be competitive.

Last item.  Team Sanders has released a five minute introductory video.  The format is conventional.  Structurally not different from what we’ve seen countless times from candidates for state and federal offices.  Yet, it does (mostly) avoid the saccharine tone, imagery, and music that we’re accustomed to seeing and that make them so boring.  It’s well done and clearly put together by people that know what they’re doing.  And without much effort could be chopped up into ten effective thirty second ads.  I’d still prefer that his campaign get more creative and quirky to capture more attention with each TV spot.  Will have to maximize quality because the competition has the money to buy quantity.

….

….

Stay tuned.
Update: Bernie Sanders — July 29, 2015 — Nationwide Meet-Up

Glendale, CA

Everyone, we are pleased to announce that we have secured a new location for our July 29th Organizing Meeting! As many of you know, we began planning this event with the expected turnout of around 30 people. We now have approximately 180 people ready to make July 29th the beginning of a major turning point in US history! Bernie has over 2,500 confirmed locations and 80,000+ RSVPs; July 29th will mark the beginning of a massive mobilization of the citizenry to take our country back.

Americans for Bernie Sanders
Boston, MA

Our Mission: To transform America and American politicsOur Goal: To get Bernie Sanders elected President. Phase One: To get as many Progressives elected as possible in 2016 Phase Two: To double the number of Progressives elected to Congress in 2018

Didn’t expect to see this level of organization and enthusiasm among volunteers quite this early. Team Sanders is running ahead of the curve.

Update #2

NYTimes Stung in 2008, Hillary Clinton Builds a Formidable Team in Iowa

…
Ms. Mueller, who at 24 is already a disciplined veteran of political campaigns in Virginia, New York and Arkansas, is one of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s 47 paid organizers in Iowa, a sizable and growing army. The formidable infrastructure, larger than any other candidate’s for either party in Iowa, shows Mrs. Clinton’s determination not to leave anything to chance in the state with the first nominating contest, where she suffered a bruising setback in her last presidential run.

…

“One of the things that I learned last time is it’s organize, organize, organize,” Mrs. Clinton said in a recent interview with CNN. “And you’ve got to get people committed, and then they will follow through, and then you bring more people.”

Clinton campaign claims that it in Iowa it has ten field offices and 7,000 volunteers, and the house party, grassroots volunteer operations are in full swing.

At a recent house party in a former Grange hall in Newton, which Mrs. Clinton did not attend, about 45 Democrats and independents were asked to sign commitment cards to caucus for Mrs. Clinton, or to check boxes indicating that they would volunteer to “Knock on doors!” or “Be a captain!”

Slight wrinkle:

Many at the Clinton house party in Newton said Mr. Sanders was the candidate they were most drawn to. “I like everything he says,” said Dean Lane, who farms 1,800 acres of corn and soybeans.

…

Few of the 45 in attendance signed the Clinton commitment cards or said they were ready to volunteer for her.

Manufacturing enthusiasm isn’t easy.

Here’s the latest Quinnipiac poll.  Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia voters on the 2016 Presidential race.  It’s so early in the election cycle that it could be meaningless.  Or  detecting a whiff of something.

Clinton supporters are denouncing it.  Sanders supporters find it encouraging.  And prefer not to imagine the jubilation among partisan Republicans, particularly Jeb(!), Marco, and Scott supporters.
Is it an outlier?  Compared to other national polls that have Clinton decimating her potential GOP opponents?   Absolutely.  Compared to Q’s April poll of these three “swing states,” it’s well within the MOE and normal bounces seen from one poll to the next.  It’s also being noted that Q’s 2012 Presidential polling sucked.

That is one factor in why I flubbed poll reading in 2014.  I too heavily discounted Q’s polliing trendlines in Senate races.  So, I’m not inclined to discount Q’s April and July “swing state” polling. There’s  Internal consistency in these two polls.  
Another reason not to discount Q’s polling is a component of polling external validation.  None of the recent polls have her performing well on that honest/trustworthy or not ratio.  Of course, that doesn’t mean that voters reject candidates that they view as dishonest.  (Of that 60.7% of people that cast their vote for Nixon in 1972, most knew that he was a “crook.”)  OTOH, Democratic pols aren’t so good at exploiting an opponent’s untrustworthiness and Republican pols are quite good at this if they have even a shred of substance to work with.  (Wish the poll had included honest/dishonest for Trump, but his net fav/unfav suggests that he’s too lame to make it across the finish line.)

A second form of external validation for Q’s poll is the 2014 Senate election in these states.  We’re only just over nine months out from the  “voter mood” that  elected Gardner and Ernst and came very close to tossing out the oh-so-popular Mark Warner.    Never a good idea to discount discernable “voter mood” sixteen months before the next general election.  It was a guide to the general election results from 2006 through 2014.  However, a pronounced “mood” is not currently evident at the national level and these three states are swingy enough that they have yet to recover from their 2014 hangover.

Sanders’ supporters would be unwise to read much in this poll as evidence that he would be a stronger DEM candidate than Clinton.  At best it suggests that he wouldn’t be a complete disaster.  I’m not confident that if Clinton is deprived of the nomination, that a high percentage of her female supporters wouldn’t act like many of the conservative Democrats did in 1972.  Sit on their hands harboring the fantasy that if nominated, Clinton would win.

Bottom line, the electoral map is still ugly for the GOP, but becoming a little less ugly might be in progress.   And if it’s an underlying “mood” trend, Clinton will be hard pressed to do more than slow it way down.