Author: PsiFighter37

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

Oregon, along with Kentucky, will be the states that help put Barack Obama over the necessary number of pledged delegates needed to attain a majority of them – and thus nullify and serious argument Hillary Clinton can make about deserving the nomination. With the movement of pledged delegates from John Edwards to Obama following the former’s endorsement, Kentucky will actually be the state that officially vaults Obama over the number – even though it will be in Oregon where he will triumph.

Although Bill Clinton had been hitting the rural areas of the state heavily in support of his wife, as has been his habit lately, the Clinton campaign seems to have given up on the state – both of the Clintons are campaigning in Kentucky today, futilely hoping that the media narrative will focus on her big win there instead of the reality that winning the nomination becomes impossible for her after Tuesday. Obama has spent the entire weekend in the state, capping his visit with a monstrous rally in Portland. Below the fold, I give my predictions for what will happen in the state’s primary.
Oregon (May 20th primary, 52 pledged delegates)

Oregon is an interesting state: it has 4 of its 5 congressional districts lined up along the I-5 corridor (all of which are represented by Democrats), while the remaining district (CD-02) represents the vast majority of the state, geographically, and has a Republican representative to Congress. The latest polling average shows Obama with a fairly healthy lead double-digit lead (disregarding the latest ARG poll, which should be taken with the appropriate grain of salt). The state is overwhelmingly white (roughly 93%), but like Washington State, where Obama routed Clinton in the state’s February 9th caucuses, Obama should perform very well in the state. Obama was also able to win the state’s non-binding February 19th primaries by 5.5% without any effort – a good sign that Obama should significantly widen his margin in Oregon given the effort he and his campaign has been putting in.

On the superdelegate front, Obama has the endorsement of 3 of Oregon’s Democratic representatives – David Wu of CD-01, Earl Blumenauer of CD-03, and Peter DeFazio of CD-04. Clinton has the backing of Gov. Ted Kulongoski and retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley of CD-05.

OR CD-01: 7 delegates

CD-01 represents a portion of Portland, as well as its fairly wealthy suburbs (the district has the highest median income of all 5). It should be expected that Obama will gain the majority of pledged delegates in the district, but can he break the 64.3% marker to get a 5-2 split? If this was a caucus, I would guarantee it (just check out the results from the counties that border the district in Washington). However, since it is a primary, Obama will probably fail to hit that margin – but will come close.

Allocation of CD-01 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

OR CD-02: 5 delegates

Although one would expect Clinton to perform well here – the district is the most rural of Oregon’s districts and has the lowest median income in the state – Obama has performed well in rural districts in the Pacific Northwest and the Mountain West. Even in Washington’s non-contested primary, Obama secured more votes in the bordering counties. He should be favored to net out the extra delegate, but he will come nowhere close to the 70% needed for a 4-1 split.

Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates

OR CD-03: 9 delegates

This district has the most delegates and should be expected to favor Obama. With a median income near the state average, it’s certainly not the kind of wealthy white enclave that would be expected to go to Obama readily. However, given that he and his campaign have focused vigorously on the Portland area during their campaign, I feel that he will be able to break the 61.11% barrier needed to earn a 6-3 split in the district. There’s a possibility that he may only get a 5-4 victory here, though.

Allocation of CD-03 delegates
Barack Obama: 6 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

OR CD-04: 7 delegates

While the district has a median income well below the state average, Obama will probably win this district due to the liberal enclave of Eugene, where he should be expected to rack up huge margins in his favor. That should be enough for a 4-3 split; unlike CD-01, though, I think he will be hard-pressed to come anywhere near the 64.3% that would get him an extra delegate.

Allocation of CD-04 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

OR CD-05: 6 delegates

This district stretches from the middle of the state, through the capital of Salem, to the suburbs of Portland. Given that this district tends to be younger and has the second-highest median income in the state, Obama should be well-positioned to take a majority of the popular vote. Given that it is a district with an even number of delegates, though, Obama would need more than 58.5% of the vote to tip the scales in his favor. Personally, I think it will happen and will thus allocate the extra delegate to him.

Allocation of CD-05 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates

At-Large Delegates (12 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (6 delegates)

This is an area where the popular vote will be key in picking up additional delegates. For Obama to get a majority of the at-large delegates, he needs more than 54.16% of the vote – something that, given the recent polls, seems very attainable. However, he would need an extremely good day – combined with fairly depressed turnout among unmotivated Clinton voters – to break the 62.5% barrier to get an 8th at-large delegate. That being said, I do question if Obama will be able to take more than 58.5% needed to gain the extra pledged PLEO delegate. Grossing up the 2 most recent reliable polls (SurveyUSA and PPP) leaves me with an average of approximately 56.6% for Obama, which I think he’ll outperform due to friendly demographics and a much stronger campaign apparatus in-state. Therefore, I predict that Obama will take 59.7% of the two-way popular vote, while Clinton will get 40.3%.

Allocation of at-large delegates
Barack Obama: 7 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 5 pledged delegates

Allocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates

Conclusion

All in all, I see Barack Obama receiving 32 pledged delegates from Oregon, while Hillary Clinton will take away 20, giving Obama a net gain of +12. This will almost offset the 15-delegate loss I see him taking in Kentucky. It’s also a relatively good scenario I have forecast (I tend to err on the side of being conservative in my delegate estimates for Obama), but I think a couple of factors will play into outperformance by Obama in the state. First, the media narrative has been effectively treating Obama as the presumptive nominee – and thus shutting out Clinton from the spotlight. This will likely depress turnout among her soft supporters. Additionally, the Obama campaign has worked the state much harder than the Clintons have, and their total abandonment of it in the days running up to the primary speaks volumes about how they view their prospects there. That being said, there are a couple of factors to consider when looking at best-case and worst-case scenarios.

Best-case scenario for Obama

Obama’s only real improvement in the state will likely come from racking up a large enough margin to get a 5-2 split in CD-01. While one might estimate it to be possible in CD-04 due to Eugene’s presence, I’m not as confident given the district’s less friendly demographics. And although could get another at-large delegate by getting more than 62.5% of the vote, this isn’t a caucus – it ain’t going to happen. A 33-19 split is the best he can hope for.

Worst-case scenario for Obama

I doubt many of these factors will happen – but if there is an undercurrent of support for Clinton that hasn’t been picked up, she could win enough of the vote in CD-02 to flip it in her favor. CD-03 could be reduced to a 5-4 advantage for Obama if she has a lot of support in the Portland area (as SUSA’s poll seems to suggest), and CD-05 could very well become a split. With a popular vote margin under 58.5%, the pledged PLEO delegates also become a tie – but Obama won’t fall below 54.16%, allowing him to keep his extra at-large delegate. In short, a worst-case scenario for Obama turns into a 28-24 delegate victory.

All in all, though, the numbers aren’t too relevant at this point. The media narrative on May 21st will be Obama declaring victory based on the majority of pledged delegates. With only 86 pledged delegates left (55 in Puerto Rico, 16 in Montana, and 15 in South Dakota) – and with Obama’s lead in superdelegates – the only thing that Clinton has a prayer for is Florida and Michigan.

Oh wait, Obama will have a majority of pledged delegates with those states included after Tuesday.

Ergo, it’s over.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

Kentucky is a state similar to West Virginia – it’s one where Hillary Clinton has focused a great deal of attention and is likely to win by one of her widest margins over Barack Obama. While she and Bill Clinton have campaigned vigorously in the state, Obama has only held one rally in the state (last week in Louisville) and doesn’t appear to be returning before Tuesday’s primary. Like West Virginia, the state (and the Democrats in particular) are rural, working-class white voters who have favored Clinton. Throw in the fact that a good swath of Kentucky, particularly the eastern portion of the state, lies in Appalachia, and you have the makings of another rough election night ahead for Obama. Luckily for him, Oregon is also voting the same night – a state which he will almost certainly win – and will therefore counterbalance the negative results here.

Follow me below the fold for a district-by-district analysis of the likely results on Tuesday…
Kentucky (May 20th primary, 51 pledged delegates)

Kentucky is one of the poorest states in the country (it is 46th in the nation), and its demographics (over 91% white) make it such that it’s a state where Clinton will perform very well. As has been the Clinton campaign’s modus operandi in the post-February contests, Bill Clinton has been making several stops a day in rural areas of the state. Although Governor Steve Beshear is uncommitted, both Kentucky Democrats in Congress – Rep. John Yarmuth of KY-03 and Rep. Ben Chandler of KY-06 – have endorsed Obama, along with Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo.

Despite these endorsements, one can pretty much venture a guess that Clinton will win the state with margins slightly below, if not close to, those that she won West Virginia with. Although the Obama ground game has undoubtedly been helping out, the polling averages have shown Clinton to be holding somewhere upwards of a 30-point lead. How will this translate to the congressional districts? Let’s take a look.

KY-01: 5 delegates

This is one of the most rural districts in the state (CD-05 is the only one that has more of its population in rural areas); it’s also the second-poorest in terms of median household income (again, CD-05 is lower) and has a white population greater than 90%. Clinton could possibly break the 70% mark needed to get a 4-1 split in delegates, but it’s a tough call. The southern counties in Indiana that border the district voted for Clinton, but by nowhere near the margins needed to get an extra delegate. However, the northwestern counties of Tennessee, which voted way back on February 5th, show that Clinton could break 70%. Demographically, IN-08 (which contains those southern Indiana counties) is racially more like the district, but it is wealthier and more urban than TN-08 (which has the northwestern Tennessee counties), which is closer to the district in terms of the urban/rural split and in household income.

Given that overall, the district resembles TN-08 more – but with less African-Americans – I think that Clinton will pick up the 70% needed to earn a 4-1 split.

Allocation of CD-01 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

KY-02: 5 delegates

This district has a similar racial makeup to CD-01, but it’s a bit wealthier. Furthermore, with the college town of Bowling Green – a place where Obama should perform reasonably well – he should be able to prevent Clinton from taking a 4-1 split from this district. While Clinton did get over 70% in a few of the bordering counties in Indiana, I don’t think she will be able to perform that well throughout the entire district.

Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

KY-03: 8 delegates

The most urban district in the state, it elected freshman Rep. Yarmuth in the 2006 midterm elections. It also has a sizable African-American population (almost 20%) that should bode well for Obama’s chances. If he can pull a good amount of white support in the primaries, he may be able to get more than the 56.25% needed for a 5-3 split in his favor. However, I don’t think he’ll be able to do so, and the delegates will be evenly split in the district. Clinton may even pull a majority of the popular vote, but I don’t think she will come anywhere close to possibly earning the extra delegate.

Allocation of CD-03 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates

KY-04: 5 delegates

While this district borders counties in Ohio where Clinton performs extremely well (she got over 70% in the rural counties east of Cincinnati), I think Obama will be able to hold Clinton to a 3-2 split because he’ll perform well in the Cincinnati suburbs in the district. It’s also the wealthiest district in the state, and Obama tends to perform better in wealthier districts. Look at Obama’s performance in IN-05 (which he gained a majority of the popular vote) as an example. That being said, I don’t think he will win a majority of the popular vote here to earn the extra delegate – but Clinton won’t come close to the 70% barrier.

Allocation of CD-04 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

KY-05: 5 delegates

Clinton will perform extremely well in this district. Aside from the empirical evidence that racial factors will work against Obama, this district falls squarely into Appalachia. It also borders parts of Virginia and West Virginia where Obama performed exceptionally poorly. Clinton will easily win a 4-1 split in the district, but it will take a miracle for her to push Obama below the 15% viability threshold and take all of the delegates.

Allocation of CD-05 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

KY-06: 6 delegates

Ben Chandler’s district is likely to go for Clinton by a reasonably wide margin, despite the urban nature of the district. Unlike CD-03, there isn’t a large enough African-American population to help boost Obama’s chances (only 8.3% of the district), and given the eastern location of the district, Obama may face an ‘Appalachian’ problem with the white voters in the district. Despite Chandler’s support, Clinton will probably break the 58.5% needed to earn a 4-2 delegate split.

Allocation of CD-06 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

At-Large Delegates (11 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (6 delegates)

The polling average that I referenced above has Clinton up by approximately a 36-point margin. Grossing up that average to 100% (I ignore any votes that may be written in or cast for other candidates because it will have no effect on the delegate allocation) gives Clinton 69.2% of the popular vote between her and Obama, enough to give her 8 of the 11 at-large delegates. The pledged PLEO delegates are guaranteed to go 4-2 in favor of Clinton (she is unlikely to break the 75% needed for a 5-1 split; if she couldn’t do it in West Virginia, she won’t do it here). As a ballpark, I’ll simply average the three most recent polls (one of which includes the egregious ARG) and get a popular vote percentage of 67.2% for Clinton and 32.8% for Obama. It’s very possible that she could get the 68.18% needed for an 8-3 at-large split, but I won’t predict it here.

Allocation of at-large delegates
Hillary Clinton: 7 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates

Allocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

Conclusion

All in all, I expect Hillary Clinton to come out of Kentucky with 33 pledged delegates, 15 more than the 18 pledged delegates that Obama will earn. Given how the media treated Clinton’s big win in West Virginia – they basically ignored it – it’s likely that her win in Kentucky will get the same treatment, especially since Obama will win Oregon and will probably lay claim to a majority of the pledged delegates at his election-night rally in Des Moines, IA. Below are best-case and worst-case outcomes for Obama, but I would be more inclined to believe that he may do marginally worse simply because he hasn’t contested the state vigorously.

Best-case scenario for Obama

Obama may be able to net out a few delegates if he performs better in CD-01 (e.g. the results mirror more of IN CD-08 instead of TN CD-08) and can run up enough support in the urban districts (KY-03 and KY-06) to earn a 5-3 and 3-3 delegate splits, respectively. I don’t think the popular vote will change enough in Obama’s favor to alter the delegate split, meaning that a 30-21 delegate split in Clinton’s favor – a net gain of 9 delegates – is the absolute best Obama can hope for.

Worst-case scenario for Obama

As noted above, Clinton could run up the popular vote statewide, letting her grab another at-large delegate. Furthermore, she might gain a 4-1 split in CD-02 if Obama is not able to turn out the college vote in his favor (similar to what he did in Bloomington, Indiana – home of Indiana University). It’s also possible that Clinton may get within shouting distance of 70% in CD-04, but I doubt she will be able to get the split. Therefore, the worst case for Obama would to lose by a net of 19 delegates – 35-16 – which would negate his margin from North Carolina.

At the end of the night, though, Barack Obama will declare a lead in the majority of pledged delegates (even with Florida and Michigan counted – which is the sole reason that the Clinton campaign rationalizes its existence at this point) – and there will follow even more superdelegate endorsements for Obama. After Kentucky and Oregon (which I’ll chronicle tomorrow) vote, there will only be 86 pledged delegates remaining in Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota. For all intents and purposes, the race will be over – and we can officially call Barack Obama the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

After last week’s primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, the media narrative shifted dramatically against Hillary Clinton. She lost big in North Carolina and barely held off Barack Obama in Indiana. Not even a week later, and she lost her long-standing lead in superdelegates as well. That being said, tomorrow’s primary in West Virginia is going to be a blowout for Clinton. Both Clinton and her husband have toured the state fairly extensively, while Obama has made only 3 stops in-state (he visited Beckley and Charleston in March, and he came back to Charleston again today). The polling averages show Clinton leading Obama between 30-40 points, which is likely where the final result will be.

While many folks are worried that an extremely bad result affecting Obama’s chances tomorrow, the truth is that Clinton will recoup roughly half of the superdelegates that Obama has netted during the past week. It’s going to be his second-worst loss after Arkansas, but the math isn’t fungible at this point such that the media narrative will flip against him.
West Virginia primary (May 13th, 28 pledged delegates)

Simply put, West Virginia personifies Appalachia, and it’s easily the area where Obama has performed the worst throughout this campaign. If one looks at the Appalachian counties in northeastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, southeastern Ohio, western Virginia, or southwestern Pennsylvania (check out CNN’s interactive county maps here), Clinton often receives close to, or more than, 70% of the vote. Given that all of West Virginia, perhaps excepting the very eastern portion of the state, falls within this region, one has to expect Obama to lose by an exceedingly large margin. His campaign has done a good job of dampening expectations of the state’s results, but if there is large turnout, it will give new life to the facetious argument based on the popular vote that is the Clinton campaign’s only metric that they can twist the numbers to favor them. Despite the endorsements of Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Rep. Nick Rahall, a good day for Obama would be to keep the margin of victory under 30% – which will happen only if Obama’s GOTV machine is extremely effective.

WV-01: 6 delegates

Clinton will easily clear the 58.5% hurdle needed to get 4 delegates out of the state, but will she get to 75% to get a 5-1 split? I don’t think so. While she surpassed the hurdle in Greene and Fayette Counties in Pennsylvania, Clinton doesn’t break 75% in any of the other bordering counties. While I do believe that Clinton may get within shouting distance of 75%, it’ll be hard for her to make it over that high barrier.

Allocation of CD-01 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

WV-02: 6 delegates

This will likely be the district in which Obama performs the best from a popular vote standpoint. I still feel that Clinton should clear the 58.5% hurdle easily, but she won’t come close to the 75% marker. Given that Obama should perform relatively (and I do mean relatively) well in Charleston and the eastern tip of the state, which is effectively suburbs/exurbs of Washington, D.C., there should be no worries about Obama doing any worse than a 4-2 split in favor of Clinton.

Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

WV-03: 6 delegates

There’s no question that Obama is going to get smoked in this district, despite Rep. Rahall’s endorsement. In this instance, I do believe that Clinton will rack up more than 75% of the vote, leading to a 5-1 split in her favor. The bordering Ohio counties gave her 77-78% of the vote, while the Virginia counties that border the district gave her as much as 90% of the vote (although some counties that border the district further north ‘only’ voted for her by margins of roughly 30-40 percent). Obama has visited Beckley once, but it was a long time ago and will likely not be enough to keep him above 25%.

Allocation of CD-03 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 5 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

At-Large Delegates (7 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (3 delegates)

Thankfully for Obama, regardless of how badly he gets blown out, the delegate splits from the at-large and pledged PLEO delegates are almost certainly to be 5-2 and 2-1 in favor of Clinton, respectively. If Obama massively outperforms expectations (again, remember this is relatively speaking), he may get the a 4-3 at-large split if he holds Clinton below 64.3% of the popular vote. Clinton gets a 6-1 at-large split if she nets more than 78.57% of the vote, but no polls in West Virginia so far have shown Obama with that little support, so it makes it highly unlikely to happen. Given the sparse polling that has been done, I’m going to simply going to gross up and average the best result for Obama (Rasmussen’s latest poll showing Clinton up 56-27) and the worst (ARG showing Clinton up 66-23 – I know they’re a bad polling outfit, but you work with what you have) to give Clinton 70.8% of the popular vote to Obama’s 29.2%.

Allocation of at-large delegates
Hillary Clinton: 5 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

Allocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

Conclusion

In my calculations, Hillary Clinton will come away from the state with 20 pledged delegates, while Barack Obama will capture 8 pledged delegates. Obama will undoubtedly receive some bad press over his impending blowout loss, and I’m sure the Clinton campaign will dutifully send Howard Wolfson and company out to tell us that Obama simply can’t win working-class white voters. That being said, Obama doesn’t have a chance of winning the state; there are too many historical and cultural barriers that don’t really give him a fighting chance to begin with. That being said, it’s hard for him to do any worse than he is currently projected to do.

Best-case scenario for Obama

Simply put, Obama has to outperform by a healthy margin to narrow the delegate loss he faces in the state. However, if he is able to perform better-than-expected in WV-02 to earn a 3-3 split (similar to how NC-11 turned out) and can get more than 25% in WV-03 to only lose 2 delegates, he will pick up 2 more delegates. Additionally, if the activist base really turns out and boosts Obama above 35.6% of the vote, he will net an extra at-large delegate. This would lead to Obama only netting a loss of 6 delegates, 17-11.

Worst-case scenario for Obama

It’s hard to do worse than I’ve already projected, but WV-01 could possibly go to Clinton for a 5-1 split if she breaks 75%. She will probably get within 5% – I can see her scoring in the low-70% range easily – but if she couldn’t do it on a consistent basis in the bordering counties in Ohio and Pennsylvania, I don’t see it happening here. That’s really the only area of improvement I see, and that would lead to a 21-7 delegate split in favor of Clinton. As I noted above, netting an extra at-large delegate with more than 78.57% of the vote is extremely likely. One has to consider that Obama’s polling – which puts him somewhere in the mid- to high-20% range – is his floor. If his supporters in West Virginia stuck with him through the tough times he faced the past few weeks, I can’t see him losing support at the polls.

All in all, Clinton will score a big victory and will try to use it as evidence that she is the best choice to retain working-class white voters. What it won’t change is the math – namely, that there are only 5 more contests (Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota) left, with a combined 189 pledged delegates. With Obama’s superdelegate likely to increase exponentially in the next couple of weeks, there is simply no daylight for the Clinton campaign to plausibly lay claim to any path to the nomination – even with Florida and Michigan included at this point. West Virginia will vote tomorrow for Hillary Clinton, but it’s too little, too late at this point.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

About a week ago or so, I made my preliminary estimate of how the North Carolina delegate breakdown would be. I gave Barack Obama a net margin of 11 delegates (63-52), with a net margin in the popular vote of 16%. This was before the media wasted more of everyone’s time over Reverend Wright and the increasingly one-sided discussion over the merits of a ‘gas tax holiday’. Suffice to say, the latest polling average for North Carolina shows a race that has tightened a bit. As a result, I still think that Obama will win the state in double digits, albeit by a lower margin. However, I don’t think that his margin of victory in the delegate count will change.

Follow me beneath the fold for an analysis on my updated prediction…
North Carolina (May 6th primary, 115 pledged delegates)

One of the reasons I do feel that the race will tighten is that Hillary and Bill Clinton have been all over this state, particularly in rural white areas where Clinton will likely perform very well. On the other hand, Obama has spent comparatively little time in the state, possibly content with keeping the margins narrow in Indiana in exchange for sacrificing some of his lead in North Carolina. We’ll see how it plays out, but early voting is a good omen for Obama so far: according to Kossack dean4ever, African-American turnout in early voting exceeded 40%, which would likely indicate a blowout of epic proportions for Obama, at least in early voting. This seems to have been validated in polling; SurveyUSA shows Obama with a 16% margin over Clinton in voters who already voted, while PPP shows him with a 29-point margin. Either way, it’s clear that the numbers certainly look beneficial for Obama in early voting; the question is how those margins will hold up when people vote tomorrow.

Regardless of the aforementioned numbers, I still believe that the above districts will remain the same in delegate counts:

CD-01 (6 delegates): Barack Obama 4, Hillary Clinton 2
CD-03 (4 delegates): Barack Obama 2, Hillary Clinton 2
CD-04 (9 delegates): Barack Obama 6, Hillary Clinton 3
CD-05 (5 delegates): Hillary Clinton 3, Barack Obama 2
CD-06 (5 delegates): Hillary Clinton 3, Barack Obama 2
CD-07 (6 delegates): Barack Obama 3, Hillary Clinton 3
CD-08 (5 delegates): Barack Obama 3, Hillary Clinton 2
CD-09 (6 delegates): Barack Obama 3, Hillary Clinton 3
CD-11 (6 delegates): Hillary Clinton 4, Barack Obama 2
CD-12 (7 delegates): Barack Obama 5, Hillary Clinton 2
CD-13 (7 delegates): Barack Obama 4, Hillary Clinton 3

The districts below will change, in my opinion.

NC-02: 6 delegates

In his prediction diary, Kossack Scott in NJ makes a good observation that accounts for my change of heart: half of the registered Democrats in the district are African-American. Combined with the fact that Obama will likely win in the Raleigh suburbs, he should be able to break the 58.5% margin with relative ease. Clinton may be able to hold down the numbers, but with her base (white seniors) in single digits in terms of demographics, it’s unlikely that she will get the 41.5% needed to cross the threshold in terms of earning a delegate split.

Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates

NC-10: 5 delegates

Although the numbers likely point to Clinton being unable to break the 70% threshold in this district, I’m inclined to believe that they will pull out a 4-1 split here. Aside from being unfriendly territory for Obama (a good portion of the district can be classified as Appalachian), the Clintons (both Bill and Hillary) have been spending an awful lot of time stumping in the western portion of the state. Although Obama paid a visit to Hickory once, I’m not sure that will be enough to get him over the 30% hump. As I had previously noted, it’s also a very white district and very conservative – both of which do not favor Obama.

Allocation of CD-10 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

At-Large Delegates (26 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (12 delegates)

I had previously estimated Obama winning by a 16% margin. However, with the later polling averages tightening up, I think Obama’s margins will be cut into largely from the extensive touring of the rural areas done by the Clintons, particularly Bill. However, this won’t prevent Obama from clearing double-digits relatively easily. At this point, I’ll predict Obama winning the popular vote by 12.2%, or by a margin of 56.1%-43.9%. This won’t change the allocation of the at-large and pledged PLEO delegates that I had previously calculated.

Allocation of at-large delegates
Barack Obama: 15 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 11 pledged delegates

Allocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Barack Obama: 7 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 5 pledged delegates

Conclusion

All in all, I don’t expect the race to change much from what I had predicted earlier. I would recommend that folks check out predictions made by Poblano and Elliot over at Election Inspection. While their projections, from the standpoint of a partisan Obama supporter, certainly look good, I think they are too optimistic and rely too much on hard demographics. Watching the news cycle play out and seeing the Clintons criss-cross the state, I just don’t think Obama will pick up extra delegates in these marginal districts (CD-09, for example) that would inflate his delegate count. Their margins of victory also seem far too large for Obama; we haven’t seen a popular vote margin for Obama above 15% since PPP gave Obama a 25-point lead 2 weeks ago. Given that Obama’s topline number has come down since then – and Clinton’s has risen – one has to expect that the only way for Obama to massively outperform rests on the ability of his GOTV machine tomorrow.

One thing to note has been the patterns in early voting. In a comment in Elliot’s dKos version of his predictions, it was pointed out that African-American voting in just about every district has been extremely high. While those numbers certainly look good, I would look for them to come down. Using Poblano’s handy North Carolina popular vote calculator, Obama will win by 14% (57-43) if there is 40% African-American turnout (which he wins by a 90-10 margin), while Clinton wins white voters by a 30-point spread. I think African-American turnout will probably be around 38%; using the same demographic splits as above, Obama earns a 11.8% margin of victory, which is fairly close to what I estimate. However, if Obama can get closer to 40% of the white vote than 35%, he will win the state by over 15%.

Basically, it comes down to this: the early numbers look very good for Obama. It’s just a question of whether those same margins can be maintained in the voting that occurs tomorrow. For now, though, I am comfortable in saying that Obama will win the delegate count and the popular vote percentage by double digits, although it will be lower than it might have seemed a couple weeks ago.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

Almost a month ago, I did a preliminary analysis of how the Indiana election would break down. It was something of a shot at the dark at the time, given the relative lack of polling that had occurred in the state at the time. Based on some of the feedback in the diary, along with my own observations (from Pennsylvania, albeit) of how the race has shaped up in the past few weeks, I still think that Hillary Clinton is going to win the state despite the disproportionate amount of time Barack Obama has focused on the state (when compared to North Carolina, the other state voting on Tuesday). That being said, even though I think the popular vote margin I predicted last time (an 8% victory for Clinton) will only shrink slightly, she is likely to net out only 4 delegates (down from my initial prediction of 6) over Obama as a result of Tuesday’s primary.

Follow me below the fold for my updated analysis on the district breakdown…
Indiana (May 6th primary, 72 pledged delegates)

The districts listed below don’t have any changes from my initial predictions for the delegate allocation. I won’t venture to make any popular vote predictions, but I would say that Clinton is probably favored to garner a majority of the vote in CD-03, CD-04, and CD-05 (all of which have 4 pledged delegates), while Obama will take a majority of the votes in CD-01.

CD-01 (6 delegates): Hillary Clinton 3, Barack Obama 3
CD-03 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-04 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-05 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-06 (5 delegates): Hillary Clinton 3, Barack Obama 2
CD-07 (6 delegates): Barack Obama 4, Hillary Clinton 2

For the following districts, I have changed my initial estimates.

IN-02: 6 delegates

While I had initially pegged this district to split for Clinton in a 4-2 fashion, I think Obama will be able to overcome the 41.5% needed to earn a delegate split in the district. He has been to the district quite a few times over the course of the campaign, and in the most recent SurveyUSA poll, it shows Obama fighting Clinton to a draw in northern Indiana. While Clinton will probably earn a popular vote majority, I don’t think it will be by an overwhelming margin so as to get her the extra delegate.

Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates

IN-08: 6 delegates

While I had initially forecast a split in this region, I now believe Clinton will win this district by a wide enough margin to get 4 of the 6 delegates in the district. Terre Haute is Sen. Evan Bayh’s base, and with the highest-ranking Democrat in the state pulling out all the stops for Clinton, one has to believe that she will perform well in this district. While Obama has visited Terre Haute and, more recently, Evansville, I don’t think it can catapult him over 41.5%.

Allocation of CD-08 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

IN-09: 6 delegates

I had initially forecast this district to go 4-2 in favor of Clinton, in large part due to the demographics (Clinton will probably win the rural counties in dominating fashion), but I think Obama will likely be able to earn a delegate split in this district. That’s due in part to the endorsements of both the incumbent representative, Baron Hill, along with his widely-respected Democratic predecessor, Lee Hamilton. The college town of Bloomington, combined with the suburbs of Louisville and the exurbs of Cincinnati in the northeastern portion of the district, will likely help out Obama here. That being said, a 4-2 split in favor of Clinton cannot be ruled out completely – but I don’t think she’ll pull it off.

Allocation of CD-09 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates

At-Large Delegates (16 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (9 delegates)

Previously, I had estimated that Clinton would defeat Obama by 8%. The latest polling averages show Clinton up by 5.5%, in no part helped by Zogby’s daily tracking poll that shows Obama with a statistically insignificant lead over Clinton. I have to believe that the margin of victory will be slightly wider than the polling average, but it’ll likely be less than the 8% I had initially forecast. I predict Clinton will win the popular vote with a margin of 6.4% (53.2%-46.8%). This barely leaves my initial estimates of the at-large and pledged PLEO delegate allocation the same. If the margin shrinks a bit more (down to 6.2%), then Clinton and Obama would split the at-large delegates evenly, with 8 apiece.

Allocation of at-large delegates
Hillary Clinton: 9 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 7 pledged delegates

Allocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Hillary Clinton: 5 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates

Conclusion

I forecast Hillary Clinton to win 38 pledged delegates from Indiana, while Barack Obama will pick up 34. This delegate pickup will be overshadowed by Obama picking up more delegates in North Carolina (for which I will do my final handicapping tomorrow). The best-case and worst-case scenarios from my previous analysis still stand. An Obama victory (which is unlikely as of now, IMO) will likely result in netting out 4 delegates, while his worst-case scenario – losing the state around 10 points – could lead to a net loss of as many as 12 delegates but would likely end up as a net loss of 8 (by a 40-32) margin.

Although the media will hype up any Clinton victory in Indiana, the fact that the delegate pickup will barely register means that the math won’t change. And with only 217 pledged delegates remaining after Tuesday’s vote, there will be more uncommitted superdelegates outstanding – which means that the focus is going to shift away from the campaign-trail politicking (which will go on, undoubtedly) and more towards convincing them who to vote for.

Now that Pennsylvania has gone to the polls and voted (and seemingly validated my 85-73 prediction in favor of Clinton), I’ll be taking a stab at predicting the delegate allocation in North Carolina, the state that has the most delegates remaining. Looking at the polling average from the state, it’s obvious that Barack Obama has been leading in the polls by double digits over Hillary Clinton for some time now. While the most recent polls show some tightening – mostly as a result of Clinton gaining strength among white voters – Obama still holds a double-digit victory and should still win the state handily.

Below the fold, you’ll find by district-by-district breakdown of how I think the delegates will be allocated, accompanied with my commentary…
North Carolina (May 6th primary, 115 pledged delegates)

North Carolina is sandwiched between two states – Virginia and South Carolina – where Obama racked up impressive victories over Clinton (by 29% and 28%, respectively). It has a large African-American voting population, which will certainly help to contribute to Obama’s margin of victory. Given that at least 38% of registered Democrats are African-American, it’s almost a certainty that he will win the state in double digits, at the very least. Obama boasts the backing of 3 of North Carolina’s 7 Democratic House representatives – G.K. Butterfield (CD-01), David Price (CD-04), and Mel Watt (CD-12) – all of whom come from districts where Obama is sure to perform strongly. He also has been endorsed by a bevy of former backers of John Edwards, including Edwards’ national campaign chairman, Ed Turlington. Both major Democratic candidates running to replace outgoing Democratic Gov. Mike Easley, Lt. Gov. Bev Purdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore, have also endorsed Obama.

While it is an uphill climb for Clinton to avoid getting blown out in the state, she did receive the endorsement of Easley this morning, which will provide her with a boost. Bill Clinton has also been touring the rural areas of the state extensively, doing up to 7 events a day in support of his wife (who’s running for president again?). This will probably help to drive up Clinton’s percentage of the vote in areas that probably weren’t going to tilt towards Obama to begin with. Still, it’s unlikely to help Clinton overcome the difficulties of winning a primary where a demographic that will make up at least a third of the voting population (African-Americans) will vote for Obama in overwhelming numbers.

NC CD-01: 6 delegates

This is a majority-minority district (it is 50.7% African-American) in the northeast corner of the state that borders Virginia and stretches (in a gerrymandered fashion) down the coastline. Unfortunately for Obama, this district has an even number of delegates (6 pledged delegates) that will make it exceedingly difficult to take away a lot of delegates from the district. He would need 75% to earn a 5-1 split, which makes this unlikely. Obama won 73% in the neighboring district in Virginia (CD-04), but he did manage to get more than 75% of the vote in many of the Virginia counties that border the district – even though it has less African-Americans. That being said, the district is more rural, and with the lowest median income in the state, the white voters are likely to split heavily in Clinton’s direction. Obama should definitely surpass the 58.5% to get a 4-2 split, though.

Allocation of CD-01 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates

NC CD-02: 6 delegates

Another district that is effectively split between rural and urban areas, there is still a sizable African-American population (30.4%), which may be enough for Obama to win a majority of the votes in the district. However, it likely won’t be enough to vault him over the 58.5% barrier to net an extra delegate. With a median income under the state average, he would need a boost from working-class white voters – which isn’t likely to happen.

Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

NC CD-03: 4 delegates

Another heavily gerrymandered district along the Atlantic coastline, it has a fairly scant African-American population (16.8%) in another district that has a relatively even split between urban and rural populations. It’s likely that neither candidate will earn the 62.5% needed to get the 3-1 split from this district, but if anyone were to have a shot, Clinton would definitely have the better shot. Obama has visited Greenville once, which is at the northern edge of the district.

Allocation of CD-03 delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates

NC CD-04: 9 delegates

This district, which has the most delegates of any CD in North Carolina, once again plays to Obama’s strengths. It’s located in The Triangle, a highly educated and affluent region that contains the cities of Durham and Chapel Hill, along with the suburbs and exurbs of Raleigh. The median income is higher than the state average (almost $54,000, compared to the median of approximately $41,700 statewide), and it has two large universities (Duke and UNC-Chapel Hill) in the district. Its representative, David Price, has already endorsed Obama. While the district only has a 20.7% African-American population, the white voters in the district are wealthy and highly educated – a demographic that Obama will perform exceptionally well in. I doubt he will get the 72.22% needed to take 7 out of the 9 delegates, but clearing the 61.11% hurdle for a 6-3 split is virtually assured already.

Allocation of CD-04 delegates
Barack Obama: 6 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

NC CD-05: 5 delegates

This district is towards the western portion of the state, which is the region where Clinton is likely to perform the best. It borders counties in Tennessee and Virginia where Clinton picked up close to 70% of the vote. White voters make up nearly 90% of the population, and in a district that is slightly below the median income and is on the outskirts of Appalachia, Clinton should perform particularly well here. However, I don’t think she will get the 70% needed for a 4-1 split at this time.

Allocation of CD-05 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

NC CD-06: 5 delegates

A district to the west of The Triangle, it is similar to CD-05 in that it is predominantly white (87.6% of the population), but it tends more to the middle class than the working class (the median income is slightly higher than the state average). It’s another district that is split between urban and rural areas. Clinton should be favored to net out the extra delegate, but she won’t get anywhere near 70% of the vote.

Allocation of CD-06 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

NC CD-07: 6 delegates

In the counties bordering this district in South Carolina, Obama generally performed well, although his performance in the most populous bordering county (Horry) was the only one he lost to Clinton (39-33). With a 23.2% African-American population, it’s possible that Obama can pull out a majority of the vote. That being said, I don’t think either candidate will break the 58.5% barrier for a 4-2 split.

Allocation of CD-07 delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

NC CD-08: 5 delegates

Obama is likely to net the extra delegate out of this district, given his strong performance in the South Carolina counties bordering the district. They make up a part of CD-05 in South Carolina, where Obama won a solid majority (55%) of the votes. With a 26.8% African-American population, it’s likely that Obama will pull a majority from the district, particularly given that about 69.4% of the district lies in urban areas. If Obama is the nominee, it could very well help put Larry Kissell over the top in his rematch against incumbent Republican Rep. Robin Hayes.

Allocation of CD-08 delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates

NC CD-09: 6 delegates

This also borders South Carolina’s CD-05, where Obama performed fairly well. There are two opposing demographic factors, though: first, the district is much ‘whiter’ than CD-08 or its South Carolinian counterpart. However, it also is clearly an upper-class district (the median income is higher than that in The Triangle), which would seem to favor Obama. I’m going to call it even and say they will split the delegates, although I would give Clinton better odds at reaching 58.5% and getting 4 delegates from the district.

Allocation of CD-09 delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

NC CD-10: 5 delegates

This is unfriendly territory for Obama; with a small black population and a district that borders on Appalachia territory, Clinton is going to perform well here. It’s home to the odious Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry, and it’s one of the most conservative districts in the state. Given the tendency for conservative voters to go for Clinton in more recent primaries, it’s safe to say Clinton will net the extra delegate here. Obama should be able to surface above 30% to maintain the 3-2 split, but it’s not out of the question that it may not happen.

Allocation of CD-10 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

NC CD-11: 6 delegates

Home to the very conservative Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler, this is a district that would be a bloodbath except for the presence of Asheville, a liberal oasis that voted for (wait for it) Dennis Kucinich in the 2004 primaries. The rest of the district is likely to vote heavily for Clinton. However, she needs 75% to earn a 5-1 split, and given that the Asheville metro region will probably have 35-40% of the Democratic primary votes, it won’t happen. I still fully expect Clinton to break 58.5% and get a majority of the delegates, though.

Allocation of CD-11 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

NC CD-12: 7 delegates

This heavily gerrymandered district, represented by Obama backer Rep. Mel Watt, stretches from Charlotte in the south to Winston-Salem in the north. An urbanized district with almost a 45% African-American population, Obama is going to win this district big. He should have no trouble reaching the 64.3% needed to get a 5-2 split of the delegates.

Allocation of CD-12 delegates
Barack Obama: 5 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates

NC CD-13: 7 delegates

This district, represented by netroots favorite Rep. Brad Miller, was newly-created after the 2000 census gave North Carolina another congressional seat. With the district being solidly middle-class and with a 27.1% African-American population, Obama should be favored to net out the extra delegate. It includes the major urban centers of Greensboro and Raleigh and encircles The Triangle (which, as aforementioned, will go heavily for Obama). That being said, Obama will likely fall well short of the 64.3% needed for 5 delegates.

Allocation of CD-13 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

At-Large Delegates (26 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (12 delegates)

The latest polling averages show Obama with a 16% margin or so on Clinton, although there are a fair number of undecideds. The important thing to note is that Obama has been above 50 in every poll (except for the latest SUSA, which I believe is an outlier), while Clinton fails to break 40 (except, again, in SUSA). Given that Obama cleaned Clinton’s clock in the two states to the north (Virginia, by a 64-35 margin) and the south (South Carolina, by a 55-27-18 margin), he should be expected to do reasonably well. Clinton will perform better because she has been paying attention to North Carolina more than either of those states, but she is still looking at a shellacking in the popular vote. As of now, I’ll give Obama a 16% margin of victory, 58-42. The delegate split is as follows:

Allocation of at-large delegates
Barack Obama: 15 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 11 pledged delegates

Allocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Barack Obama: 7 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 5 pledged delegates

Conclusion

For now, I forecast Barack Obama to come away from the North Carolina primary with 63 pledged delegates, compared to a haul of 52 pledged delegates for Hillary Clinton. This will wind up virtually erasing Clinton’s advantage from her Pennsylvania victory (where she will net out either 10 or 12 delegates, depending on the final reported results from Pennsylvania’s CD-07). If Clinton picks up 6 delegates from Indiana, as I had previously predicted, Obama will net out 5 delegates for the day – thus extending his lead in the pledged delegate count to 166 pledged delegates (based on his website’s delegate counter). With only 217 pledged delegates in the contests remaining afterwards, Obama will be guaranteed to come out ahead in the pledged delegate count. This victory in North Carolina – regardless of the outcome in Indiana – will likely be the final nail in the coffin for the Clinton campaign.

Before I address the best- and worst-case scenarios, I’d like to talk about SUSA’s latest poll of North Carolina. One reason I feel the results are off is the results from The Triangle. SUSA has Clinton up 9, which seems a bit absurd given the inherent strengths Obama has in the region. Compare it to the results of PPP’s latest poll, and it shows Obama leading by 21 in the area code (919) that makes up the region. While SUSA has a good record this primary season, PPP is based in North Carolina, and I am therefore more inclined to believe their results (after all, if they can’t poll their own state, what good are they?). All of the other polls in North Carolina (reasonably reliable ones like Rasmussen, along with unreliable ones such as ARG) are more in line with PPP’s numbers, so it’s likely that SUSA is using a different voting model that is generating outliers.

The last note is that both SUSA and PPP show early voters coming in heavily for Obama: SUSA has Obama winning those voters 57-39, while PPP has him up 63-31. While these are relatively minuscule numbers (they make up 2% of SUSA’s polling), it means that Obama could build up a pre-Election Day advantage that makes it difficult for Clinton to overcome (similar to what happened to Obama in California).

Best-case scenario for Obama

It’s possible that Obama could pull off a 4-2 split in CD-02 if his campaign can do stellar GOTV with the black vote. PPP’s polling shows Obama with a large lead in the 910 area code (southeast NC), which could mean he will get a 4-2 split in CD-07. If the campaign can also make sure he racks up large margins in Asheville, it is also possible (albeit highly unlikely) that he could force Clinton below the 58.5% threshold, making the district a 3-3 split. If he is able to run up the popular vote to margins closer to what he earned in Virginia (where he got 64%) as opposed to South Carolina (where he got 55%), he can pick up an extra at-large and pledged PLEO delegate. A victory of this magnitude (say, 63%-37%) would result in Obama netting out 21 delegates with a 68-47 margin.

Worst-case scenario for Obama

Clinton is going to lose this state, but the margins could close if Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” voters, combined with the state GOP’s ad featuring Rev. Jeremiah Wright, take their toll on Obama in the next week. I don’t suspect it will have much effect, but it could help drive up Clinton’s numbers in districts favorable to her. If she can pull off 4-1 splits in CD-05 and CD-10 – which are in the western portion of the state – along with narrowing Obama’s vote in The Triangle such that he only wins by a 5-4 margin, it will halve Obama’s delegate lead. Throw in a narrowing of the popular vote margin to single digits (let’s say 54-46 Obama), and she picks up a delegate in both the at-large and pledged PLEO count. This would result in a 59-56 delegate split in favor of Obama – something that the press would be sure to spin as a loss, even if the overall delegate math is largely unaffected by what happens in these contests at this point.

Obama has spent a few days down in North Carolina, seeking to shore up his base of support. While both campaigns are fighting hard in this state, Obama is likely to win it. Given that his campaign has far more offices on the ground compared to Clinton, has been set up in-state for longer, and has favorable demographics, he’ll win the primary here – and it should effectively end Clinton’s realistic chances at the nomination. A blowout would help negate any negative effects of a potential loss in Indiana, and it would reinforce the math – which cannot be avoided – even more.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

A couple weeks back, I made a preliminary estimate of the results of the Pennsylvania primary. Now that we have arrived at the weekend before the Tuesday election, I’d like to revisit my initial prediction and adjust it, taking into account some of the feedback I received on the entry, as well as some observations as to what has happened since then. I still believe Hillary Clinton is on track to win the primary here, but the margin of victory will be decreased from my initial estimate. Instead, she’ll only pick up 12 pledged delegates (as opposed to 18), and I do think that her margin of victory will fall into the single digits.

Please see below the fold for the particular congressional districts that I made adjustments to…
Pennsylvania (April 22nd, 158 pledged delegates)

A majority of the initial delegate predictions I made aren’t going to change. The list below are the districts I don’t feel will have any significant changes in the popular vote such that it would result in a realignment of the delegate allocation.

CD-01 (7 delegates): Barack Obama 4, Hillary Clinton 3
CD-05 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-06 (6 delegates): Hillary Clinton 3, Barack Obama 3
CD-07 (7 delegates): Barack Obama 4, Hillary Clinton 3
CD-08 (7 delegates): Barack Obama 4, Hillary Clinton 3
CD-09 (3 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 1
CD-12 (5 delegates): Hillary Clinton 4, Barack Obama 1
CD-13 (7 delegates): Hillary Clinton 4, Barack Obama 3
CD-14 (7 delegates): Hillary Clinton 4, Barack Obama 3
CD-15 (5 delegates): Hillary Clinton 3, Barack Obama 2
CD-16 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-17 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-19 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2

The districts below, I feel, will change from my initial predictions.

PA CD-02: 9 delegates

After getting a firsthand look at the ground game today – I canvassed a neighborhood several blocks north of University City this morning – I can say with fair confidence that Obama should easily win this district by a margin of 7-2 (my initial prediction was 6-3). Given that African-Americans are voting as a near-monolithic block for Obama, combined with the fact that most whites in the district are the kind of upper-class, educated liberals that have also gone in strong numbers for him, there should be no problem breaking the 72.22% barrier needed for a 7-2 split. I don’t think Obama is strong enough to garner 83.33% of the vote, which would result in an 8-1 split, but he should net out an extra delegate from my initial projections easily.

Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Barack Obama: 7 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates

PA CD-03: 5 delegates

This is noted unfriendly ground for Obama; in the bordering Ohio counties, he usually received support in the low 30s. While I previously had predicted the district would go in favor to Clinton by a 4-1 margin, I think that Obama’s good ground game (some firsthand diaries from Erie can be found from Kossack hiraga), combined with his town hall in the city yesterday, will allow him to clear the 30% hurdle.

Allocation of CD-03 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

PA CD-04: 5 delegates

I had also predicted this at a 4-1 split for Clinton. However, given that Obama should perform relatively well in the Pittsburgh suburbs, he should be able to secure at least 30% of the vote. The Clintons have campaigned in parts of this district (Bill Clinton in Beaver Falls and New Castle; Hillary Clinton in Aliquippa), but I don’t think the advantages she will get from the border regions of the district will overcome the votes coming from more of in-state areas.

Allocation of CD-04 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

PA CD-10: 4 delegates

The northeast part of the state is going to be a Clinton stronghold. In my initial estimates, I thought Obama would be able to hold Clinton under 62.5% based on the results in the neighboring New York counties, along with Sen. Bob Casey’s endorsement. However, I think I overestimated the importance of a Casey endorsement, and even though it is his home base, the demographics are such that Clinton should perform very well in this part of the state.

Allocation of CD-10 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

PA CD-11: 5 delegates

Similarly, given the Rodham family’s deep roots to the Scranton area, I don’t think the value of Casey’s endorsement will prevent this district from strongly voting for Clinton. Due to that, I am switching my allocation from 3-2 to 4-1. If Obama is able to hold her below 70% here, it could be a bellwether for a good night come Tuesday.

Allocation of CD-11 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

PA CD-18: 5 delegates

In my initial predictions, this was one of the districts I had also listed as a 4-1 sweep for Clinton. However, a great deal of the district consists of the Pittsburgh suburbs, meaning that Obama should clear the 30% hurdle for a 3-2 split with relative ease.

Allocation of CD-18 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

At-Large Delegates (35 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (20 delegates)

In my previous diary, I estimated that Clinton would win by a 12 percentage-point margin, 56%-44%. However, polling in Pennsylvania has shown Clinton’s double-digit leads shrinking into the single digits. While it’s possible she will still win by more than 10 percent – and I think SurveyUSA’s last poll before the primary (should they put one out) will be worth surveying, given that they nailed Ohio dead on – I think that there’s been a good deal of back-and-forth that has probably hurt Clinton more than Obama. I don’t think Obama can win the state – conservative talk show host Michael Smerconish’s prediction of a 2-point Obama win is largely a pipe dream – but if he can hold the margin in single digits, it becomes hard for Clinton to spin it as a convincing victory.

Therefore, I do think Clinton will win by 8 percent, 54%-46%. This changes only the at-large delegate allocation, where it is now 19-16 in favor of Clinton, instead of 20-15. The pledged PLEO count remains at 11-9 in favor of Clinton.

Allocation of at-large delegates
Hillary Clinton: 19 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 16 pledged delegates

Allocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Hillary Clinton: 11 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 9 pledged delegates

Conclusion

As of now, I think that Hillary Clinton will garner 85 pledged delegates to Barack Obama’s 73. The best-case and worst-case scenarios that I laid out previously haven’t changed at all. While Clinton will be able to spin her Pennsylvania results as some sort of validation for continuing on, the margin of victory won’t be large enough to change the impending media narrative – namely, that her candidacy rests on convincing superdelegates that Obama is unelectable…and since she said in Wednesday’s ‘debate’ that he could beat John McCain, one has to wonder what other arguments could possibly be used.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

While most of the political attention these days is aimed at Pennsylvania’s April 22nd primary, perhaps the more important date is May 6th – when both Indiana and North Carolina hold their primaries. With a combined 187 pledged delegates at stake, it is the day that has the most pledged delegates remaining. After those two states (along with Guam, on May 3rd) have voted, 61.7% (349) of the remaining 566 pledged delegates will have been allocated. With North Carolina shaping up to be a blowout for Barack Obama, most of the attention is being focused on Indiana, which is shaping up to be a swing state in the primary.

The most recent polls show Hillary Clinton with a lead in the single digits – which is my starting point for my analysis of the state. Please find my district-by-district prediction for Indiana below the fold…
Indiana (May 6th primary, 72 pledged delegates)

Indiana has been called a ‘swing state’ in the primary (not in the general election, where it doesn’t seem clear that Indiana would be in play unless Evan Bayh had a spot on the ticket). It’s a next-door neighbor to Obama’s home state of Illinois; to date, he has won every state that borders Illinois. However, Indiana’s demographics are much closer to those of Ohio, and it lacks the large urban sprawl of a city like Chicago. While Northwestern Indiana may be fertile ground for Obama due to the district’s proximity to Chicago, the rest of the state (with the exception of Indianapolis, located squarely in the 7th Congressional District) looks to be favorable towards Clinton. She also boasts the endorsement of the most important Democrat in the state, Sen. Evan Bayh. Obama did win the recent endorsement of former Rep. Lee Hamilton, a widely-respected figure who represented South Indiana in the House for 34 years.

Obama has paid a couple of visits to the state (visiting Plainfield, a suburb of Indianapolis, and Fort Wayne), while Clinton has been in the state a bit more. Additionally, Bill Clinton has done several events in-state, likely meaning that the Clinton campaign has a head start on the retail politicking. That being said, the Obama campaign has used their money edge to open more offices and blanket the airwaves first. Will it be enough to overcome the built-in advantages the state offers Clinton? Who knows…according to the most recent SurveyUSA poll, Clinton leads in every region except for Indianapolis. She definitely starts out with an edge, and it will be up to the Obama campaign to fight for the win here.

IN CD-01: 6 delegates

Outside of the Indianapolis area, this seems to be the district where Obama will have the best performance. Given that the northwestern area of the district is essentially considered a suburb of Chicago (just take a look at East Chicago) and a generally urban bent, along with a reasonably-sized African-American population (18.3% of the population), it looks to be favorable. Gary, though, is an aging industrial city that has the kind of white blue-collar workers that have favored Clinton to date. While the counties that border this district in Illinois would likely give the senator the 58.5% needed to take a 4-2 split, I don’t believe he will perform as well, thus earning a 3-3 split in the delegates.

Allocation of CD-01 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates

IN CD-02: 6 delegates

The 2nd district is represented by Blue Dog Joe Donnelly, who ousted Chris ‘Count’ Chocula in the 2006 midterm elections by a healthy 8% margin. The district is mostly urban, centered in South Bend. Given the results from Michigan’s discounted January 15th primary, it seems that Clinton will be able to earn the 58.5% needed for a favorable 4-2 delegate split easily. The demographics largely favor her as well; the district has a lower-middle income population that is largely white and socially conservative. If Obama spends some time campaigning here, he may be able to move the district more towards an even 3-3 split.

Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-03: 4 delegates

This district is even ‘whiter’, so to speak, than its companion district to its west. The median income is around the Indiana state average, meaning it is likely favorable to Clinton. Obama has paid a visit to Fort Wayne, one of the district’s main population centers. Based on the counties in Western Ohio bordering the district, it looks like Clinton will probably score between 55-60% of the vote – a clear majority, but not anywhere close enough to the 62.5% needed to earn the 3-1 split.

Allocation of CD-03 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-04: 4 delegates

This district stretches from the northwestern portion of the state to parts of southern Indiana, including the western portion of the Indiana suburbs. While the demographics favor Clinton, it’s unlikely that she will be able to break the 62.5% threshold. Obama’s first event in Indiana was in Plainfield, located in the eastern portion of the district.

Allocation of CD-04 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-05: 4 delegates

Basically a mirror image of the 4th Congressional district, CD-05 is predominantly white (94.1%) but is also a district where the median income outpaces the statewide average. It’s a very Republican district – it gave 71% of its vote to Bush in 2004 – and is represented by the odious Rep. Dan Burton. While an upscale white district typically tends to favor Obama, this district is also extremely conservative and may have a good deal of the ‘Limbaugh Democrats’. I don’t think either candidate has a particularly good shot of reaching 62.5% for a 3-1 split here.

Allocation of CD-05 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-06: 5 delegates

Based on the results from Ohio, it won’t be in doubt that Clinton will get the majority of delegates from this district. That being said, she didn’t come close to breaking the 70% barrier in the bordering counties that would be required to net a 4-1 split from the district. It’s home to longtime blogger and congressional candidate Barry Walsh, who may be able to provide some more insight into the district. That being said, I think it’s a safe bet to predict a 3-2 delegate split in favor of Clinton.

Allocation of CD-06 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-07: 6 delegates

Indianapolis is where Obama is favored, according to the aforementioned SUSA poll. It’s also the only district outside of CD-01 that has a sizable African-American population in Indiana (29.4% of the population). While urbanized areas have typically favored Obama, Indianapolis may not be as favorable as other areas. Newly-elected Rep. Andre Carson only won his race over Republican Jon Elrod by 11 percent, suggesting that Obama likely won’t win by an overwhelming margin. He should be able to get over the 58.5% threshold with relative ease to pick up the 4-2 split, though.

Allocation of CD-07 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates

IN CD-08: 6 delegates

This is the second of 3 districts picked up by House Democrats in 2006 (the other being CD-09); currently, it is represented by the fairly conservative Brad Ellsworth. The district is the largest in Indiana by geographic area, and it is largely split between urban and rural areas. The portion of the district that borders counties in Eastern Illinois span from going to Obama by healthy double-digit margins to high single-digit victories for Clinton. While the demographics (a white, working-class population with a median income below the state average) would seem to favor Clinton, I don’t believe that she’ll be able to hit the 58.5% needed to win a majority of the delegates. As such, I do think that the delegate split will be 3-3.

Allocation of CD-08 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates

IN CD-09: 6 delegates

This is the district that Obama backer Lee Hamilton represented for the effectively the latter third of the 20th century. It’s the most rural district in the state and is currently represented by Baron Hill, who won the seat back from Republican Mike Sodrel after 2 years. With a friendly demographic base (rural, 94.8% white, working-class population), along with a long border with Kentucky – a state whose demographics are decidedly unfriendly for Obama – I think that Clinton will be able to pick up the extra delegate and win the district 4-2, despite Hamilton’s backing for Obama.

Allocation of CD-09 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

At-Large Delegates (16 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (9 delegates)

Based on recent polling, it appears that Clinton has a lead somewhere in the high single digits at this point. I suspect that, given the state’s demographics, that’s a fair assumption to make. Although Obama’s leaked spreadsheet projections have Obama winning by 7%, I do believe this will be the first state where they will lose a state they predicted to win. For now, I feel that a Clinton victory over Obama by a margin of 8% (54-46) is relatively accurate. This will result in Clinton netting 3 delegates from the statewide allocation – half of her total margin.

Allocation of at-large delegates
Hillary Clinton: 9 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 7 pledged delegates

Allocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Hillary Clinton: 5 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates

Conclusion

As of now, my current prediction is that Hillary Clinton will come away from Indiana with 39 pledged delegates, compared to Obama’s 33 pledged delegates. This will further cut into Obama’s pledged delegate lead but is likely to be more than negated from his likely victory in North Carolina (which I will chronicle next). Given the state’s preponderance of 4- and 6-delegate districts, it’s going to be difficult to see delegate movement in many of the state’s congressional districts. However, there is room to improve – and to worsen – for Obama.

Best-case scenario for Obama

Due to the ‘neighboring state’ status of Indiana, I do think it is possible for Obama to pull off a popular vote victory in Indiana; however, I see his campaign’s projection of a 7% margin (53-46) as something of a ceiling for how high he would win by. This would result in a +2 advantage from the statewide allocation (instead of my predicted – 3). He could also outperform in CD-01, giving him a 4-2 delegate split, and he could hold down the margins in CD-02 and CD-09 to a 3-3 split. This would result in a 38-34 advantage for Obama. The more important victory to take away would be psychological; given that the importance of a Pennsylvania victory for Clinton has been effectively downplayed, an Obama victory in a ‘true’ battleground state, combined with a North Carolina blowout, would effectively end the Clinton campaign.

Worst-case scenario for Obama

Given that my estimates tend to have an inherently optimistic look at the numbers from Clinton’s perspective, it will be difficult for her to build on the results given above. It’s possible (albeit unlikely) that she holds Obama under 58.5% in CD-07, resulting in a 3-3 split. She may also earn a 4-2 split in CD-08, and it’s possible that, with enough campaigning, she might be able to earn the odd 3-1 delegate split in one of the 4-delegate districts (CD-03, CD-04, or CD-05). There’s also the concern of the effect of ‘Limbaugh Democrats’ in this primary; with a semi-open primary, it’s possible that Republicans in these heavily-Republican districts decide to create mischief by voting in the Democratic primary. That being said, I can’t see Clinton winning by a margin higher than 55-45 – which doesn’t earn her any more delegates at the statewide level. The maximum number of delegates she could net out of the state might be as high as +12, but it doesn’t seem likely that she can eke out that kind of margin unless she wins handily in a place like CD-08, which includes Evan Bayh’s base of Terre Haute.

The battle for Indiana is going to be hard-fought, and it seems that Clinton will be starting out with a clear, if not impenetrable, edge in the state. It’s going to take a lot more attention from Obama, who is now comfortably ahead in North Carolina. Combined with a victory from with North Carolina, a win in Indiana would give the Obama campaign an opportunity to knock out Clinton 2 weeks after Pennsylvania votes (for what it’s worth, Guam has 4 delegates and is likely going to split them 2-2 on their May 3rd caucuses). Unlike Pennsylvania, where the battle to win the state is much more difficult, Indiana is winnable for the Obama campaign. But he’s got to campaign there a little more than he’s been doing.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

As I promised in a previous diary, I would go into further detail about the predictions that I made above. My analysis is largely based off of the county-by-county breakdowns of the vote given at CNN, while any demographic data is from what I have found at the U.S. Census Bureau. I recognize that a lot of my predictions may be largely based on generalizations and historical observations, but I think that, for the most part, they will hold up.

For the first part of my series, I will start off chronicling my predicted results in Pennsylvania, the next state to hold a nominating contest (on April 22nd). Below the fold, find my district-by-district delegate projections…
Pennsylvania (April 22nd, 158 pledged delegates)

Much of what needs to be said about Pennsylvania doesn’t need to be repeated. In short, it’s a state whose demographics play well to Hillary Clinton’s prospects of winning the state. Aside from having Clinton’s family roots in Northeast PA, the Keystone State is one of the oldest states in the nation, one of the most Catholic, and one that has a lot of working-class white voters – all groups that have, with few exceptions, gone to Clinton. As has been noted in the past, Obama’s best chances at getting any sort of victory out of the state is to follow Ed Rendell’s recipe for victory in the heated 2002 Democratic primary contest against now-Sen. Bob Casey: rack up huge margins in southeast Pennsylvania, especially in Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs. It’s probably the best strategy, but there are differences – notably that Rendell was widely-known in the area due to his 8-year tenure as mayor of Philadelphia.

Obama’s recent bus tour throughout the state, interestingly enough, focused on the areas that are expected to be solidly for Clinton. He spent a great deal of time in western and central PA, only visiting Philadelphia and its suburbs on the last day of his ‘Road to Change’ tour. In addition, the surprising endorsement by Senator Casey may help Obama win over the socially conservative Democrats that make up a good portion of the state’s Democratic voters – and helped give Casey and overwhelming victory over Rick Santorum in 2006. Nevertheless, I still think that Obama is fighting an uphill battle, as you’ll see in the congressional district breakdown.

PA CD-01: 7 delegates

Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District is one of the four districts (the others being CD-02, CD-08, and CD-13) that represent a portion of Philadelphia in the House. Demographically, CD-01 has a plurality of African-Americans living in the district (45.7%), although it does include the ethnic European enclaves in Northeast Philadelphia that may not be as friendly territory for Obama. Its representative, Democrat Bob Brady, is the longtime chairman of the Philadelphia Democratic Party and is probably the most powerful of the ‘machine’ politicians in the city. He is currently undecided, but given the way the demographics of the district work out – coupled with Obama’s generally strong performance in urban cities – Obama will pick up 1 delegate in a 4-3 decision. Obama would need 64.3% of the vote to make it a 5-2 split – something that is unlikely to happen.

Allocation of CD-01 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

PA CD-02: 9 delegates

This is a district where Obama will dominate. Having called this district ‘home’ for a good portion of the past 4 years, Obama is going to perform excellently based on the ground game presence. Comprised of University City, West Philadelphia, and almost the rest of Philadelphia County, the district is majority African-American (61%), and its representative, Chaka Fattah, was an early endorser of Obama. Given the strong higher-education presence as well, and it’s a near-certainty that Obama will easily break the 61.11% threshold needed for a 6-3 delegate split. That being said, I don’t think he’ll be able to break the 72.22% barrier to earn a 7-2 split. It’s with the realm of possibility, though. I stopped in at Obama’s West Philadelphia satellite office yesterday, and one of the staffers felt that an 8-1 split was completely within reach. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Barack Obama: 6 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

PA CD-03: 5 delegates

CD-03, represented by Republican Phil English, is a district that is going to likely be one where Clinton racks up huge margins. The counties in Eastern Ohio bordering this region routinely gave Clinton upwards of 65% of the vote. It is a mostly urbanized district, but cities such as Erie are old industrial towns with a lot of the working-class white voters where Clinton has done well. Bill Clinton has already paid a visit to Erie; Obama has yet to make a visit to this area of western PA. With a very small African-American population (3.4%), I think that the Clinton campaign will give enough focus to this district to pull out a 4-1 delegate split – meaning that she will put in over 70% of the vote.

Allocation of CD-03 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

PA CD-04: 5 delegates

CD-04 is represented by freshman Democrat Rep. Jason Altmire, who has seemingly leaned towards Obama despite remaining officially neutral. However, the district, which encompasses some of the Pittsburgh suburbs, is likely to vote for Clinton in huge margins. It borders the same eastern Ohio counties that gave her big victories, although they went for even larger margins for Clinton than did the counties bordering CD-03. It’s one of the ‘Pennsyltucky’ districts that have not treated Obama kindly in the past. While he did spend some time in the first days of his bus tour, I don’t think Obama will be able to break 30% and hold Clinton to a 3-2 margin.

Allocation of CD-04 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

PA CD-05: 4 delegates

On first glance; this would seem to be a clear 3-1 district for Clinton (which requires 62.5% of the vote): the counties in New York bordering CD-05 went to Clinton by over that amount of the vote. However, it also includes State College (home to Penn State), which, if Obama’s record-breaking appearance is any indication, he will be able to rack up a solid number of votes there – and be able to hold Clinton below the 62.5% threshold.

Allocation of CD-05 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

PA CD-06: 6 delegates

Of the 3 suburban Philadelphia districts that the Democrats targeted in 2006, this is the only one to have stayed in Republican hands despite its increasingly Democratic lean. While the district is predominantly white, it also has a median income above the state average – indicating it may contain the higher-educated white voters that tend to vote for Obama. Given its historical Republican bent, though, the Obama campaign needs to ensure that its voter registration drive was able to pick up enough of these new Democratic voters. There doesn’t seem to be any indication that either candidate will break the 58.5% threshold to earn a 4-2 split, so we’ll call this one even.

Allocation of CD-06 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates

PA CD-07: 7 delegates

PA-07 is now represented by Democrat Joe Sestak after 20 years in GOP hands. As another wealthy, white district whose voters have become increasingly liberal over the years, this represents a good opportunity for Obama to net a delegate out – so long as enough voters flipped their registration to Democratic. Although Sestak himself is a Clinton supporter – and served in Bill Clinton’s White House – I still believe Obama will win the majority of delegates.

Allocation of CD-07 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

PA CD-08: 7 delegates

The last of the suburban Philadelphia districts, represented by Obama backer and Iraqi war veteran Patrick Murphy, also looks to be good for Obama. Again, Obama’s performance will likely depend upon the number of voters that re-registered as Democrats; Bucks County, which makes up the vast majority of the district (it also includes a sliver of Montgomery County and Northeast Philadelphia), had a registered GOP majority until recently – even though the district has gone to both Al Gore and John Kerry in the past two presidential elections. It also has the highest median income of PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08, which likely bodes well for Obama given how primary season has played out. Ultimately, Obama will likely net the extra delegate from this district, particularly when aided by Murphy’s excellent field operation in the district.

Allocation of CD-08 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates

PA CD-09: 3 delegates

In a sense, Obama is lucky that this district only has 3 delegates: it’s a rural white, working-class district where he will likely perform quite poorly. It does contain Altoona, site of Obama’s now-infamous bowling outing, which garnered him good local press. However, the counties in Maryland that border the district went to Clinton by wide margins. It’ll be an easy 2-1 split in her favor.

Allocation of CD-09 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

PA CD-10: 4 delegates

This is another district where Obama is lucky that there are not too many delegates. A mostly rural district in Northeast PA that borders New York to the North and encompasses a good portion of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area (without the cities themselves), this should be solid Clinton territory in terms of the popular vote. In the counties bordering New York, Clinton came close to – but didn’t break – the 62.5% barrier that will be needed to net an extra delegate from this district. While it’s possible, given her ties to the region, that she’ll do so, I think that Obama will perform well enough to hold Clinton to a 2-2 split. This is also a district where Casey’s endorsement may very well help (Northeast PA is Casey’s base).

Allocation of CD-10 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

PA CD-11: 5 delegates

Hillary Clinton’s father and his relatives come from the Scranton area, which is encompassed by this district. It won’t come as any shocker that Clinton takes the extra delegate from this district; it’s a matter of if she can manage to make a run at the 70% barrier to get a 4-1 split. While the demographics (white working-class Catholics) is largely favorable towards her, this may be another district where Casey’s endorsement may help Obama limit the damage. Furthermore, the neighboring counties in NJ were not favorable to Clinton to the point where she was getting 70% of the vote. A 3-2 split is the likely outcome.

Allocation of CD-11 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

PA CD-12: 5 delegates

This heavily-gerrymandered district is represented by Clinton backer Rep. John Murtha. This is another ‘Pennsyltucky’ district where Clinton should be able to attain the 70% necessary to earn a 4-1 delegate split. It’s a white, working-class district that was a part of Pennsylvania’s industrial heyday. While Obama did come through the region on his bus tour, holding a townhall in Johnstown and stopping in Latrobe for a meal, his campaign’s main goal should be to try and ensure that they can somehow break 30% and keep the split to 3-2. I don’t think it will happen.

Allocation of CD-12 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

PA CD-13: 7 delegates

District 13 used to be a heavily-contested swing district held previously by Joe Hoeffel, but since Allyson Schwartz (a Clinton backer) won the seat in 2004 with relative ease, it has become a safe Democratic seat. Encompassing parts of Northeast Philadelphia and portions of Montgomery County, it’s a bit more working-class than the other, more affluent suburban Philadelphia districts. In this case, I believe that Clinton has the advantage in this district and will be able to win a majority of the votes.

Allocation of CD-13 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates

PA CD-14: 7 delegates

District 14 includes the big city of Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh. While it is in the western part of the state – an area that will perform well for Clinton – it has a sizable African-American population (about 22.4%) and should allow Obama to keep Clinton’s margin of victory to 1. It still has a great number of the working-class whites that have gone for Clinton, and the median income in the district is below the average for the state. While Pittsburgh does have more of a service-based economy now, I still believe Clinton will win the district.

Allocation of CD-14 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates

PA CD-15: 5 delegates

District 15 is part of Lehigh Valley – an area where Obama will need to perform strongly if he is to have a chance of closing the margin. It includes the old steel city of Allentown, and the demographics should be favorable to Clinton – a generally middle-class district with lots of white Catholics. In New Jersey, though, Clinton only won the neighboring counties with vote percentages in the mid-50s. With a 70% split required to get a 4-1 split, a 3-2 margin in favor of Clinton is the likeliest result. Look for a potential upset if Obama’s presence in the area’s colleges is able to overcome his disadvantages in the district.

Allocation of CD-15 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

PA CD-16: 4 delegates

This district includes Lancaster County and is characterized by a mostly suburban makeup, with a few cities here and there. Neither candidate has such a decided advantage that the delegate split will likely be anything other than a solid 2-2 allocation.

Allocation of CD-16 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

PA CD-17: 4 delegates

District 17 is in south-central PA; it includes the state capital of Harrisburg, along with other small cities such as Hershey and Reading. While it is demographically favorable towards Clinton, Obama will likely be able to win more than enough support to keep the delegate split even in the district. While there are definitely racial undertones to the vote in this part of the state, I think Obama can earn 37.5% of the vote easily enough.

Allocation of CD-17 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

PA CD-18: 5 delegates

This is the last of the ‘Pennsyltucky’ districts in the state; sharing a border with a sliver of West Virginia (which then borders Eastern Ohio, a part of the state where Clinton performed extremely well), Clinton is likely to perform well here as well. While she needs 70% of the vote to take a 4-1 split, I am inclined to believe that it’s likely to happen. While it does include some of the Pittsburgh suburbs, these are likely to be solidly Clinton as well. With an extremely small African-American population and a solidly working-class base, Clinton looks to outperform in this district.

Allocation of CD-18 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate

PA CD-19: 4 delegates

District 19 is in south-central PA and borders Maryland counties where Obama performed well. While the demographics favor Clinton (middle-class white votes), I don’t anticipate either side performing well enough to earn the 3-1 delegate split – at least from what I can tell. There aren’t any indications that lead me to believe that Clinton will be able to get over the 62.5% threshold, but it’s possible.

Allocation of CD-19 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates

At-Large Delegates (35 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (20 delegates)

My current estimate is that PA will end up much like Ohio: Clinton will score a win in the low double digits. My estimates (which are conservative for Obama, I will admit) have Clinton winning the state 56%-44%. This would lead to Clinton netting +7 delegates at the statewide level. If I do a popular vote percentage based on the current RealClearPolitics polling average, Clinton wins 54%-46% and wins the at-large delegates 19-16 instead of 20-15, as I currently estimate.

Allocation of at-large delegates
Hillary Clinton: 20 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 15 pledged delegates

Allocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Hillary Clinton: 11 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 9 pledged delegates

Conclusion

In closing my current prediction is that Hillary Clinton will win 88 pledged delegates, compared to 70 pledged delegates for Barack Obama. This would lead to a net pickup of 18 delegates for Clinton, leaving her 151 pledged delegates behind Obama (according to his website’s delegate counter). It would be a solid enough victory from the Clinton campaign’s perspective to continue on the primary fight until the Indiana and North Carolina nominating battles two weeks later, on May 6th. That being said, there is still room for Obama to perform better (or worse) than I have stated above.

Best-case scenario for Obama

I don’t believe Obama will win the popular vote outright in the state (which would effectively end Clinton’s campaign on April 22nd). That being said, he can drastically narrow Clinton’s delegate pickup if he can hold her below 70% in districts 3, 4, 12, and 18. Combined with outperforming in districts 1 (earning over 64.3% of the vote) and in district 2 (if Obama can surpass 72.22% of the vote to earn a 7-2 split). If he loses the popular vote by 6% (53-47), this will result in Clinton merely netting 4 delegates from the state (81-77). This ‘victory’ for Clinton would effectively be a hollow one, and the calls for her to step out of the race would increase greatly. If the vote % was even narrower (52-48, for example), Clinton’s delegate lead disappears completely, leading to a 79-79 delegate split.

Worst-case scenario for Obama

While my initial estimate for Obama was already fairly conservative, I believe that he could perform worse if things don’t break his way. I don’t think that the popular vote margin he will lose by will be greater than 15%, so I put the worst-case as 58-42 Clinton (she picks up another pledged PLEO). Furthermore, she outperforms in northern PA (winning 3-1 in districts 5 and 10, and 4-1 in Scranton’s district 11) and in the Philadelphia suburbs, where she earns the 4-3 margin instead of Obama. Lastly, she picks up a 3-1 split in southern PA, in district 19. These results lead to a 95-63 delegate split in her favor, which would cut down Obama’s pledged delegate lead to 137. While it’s still sizable, Obama’s best chance at making sure the campaign doesn’t go to the convention is to ensure his margin is greater than the amount that could be earned by Clinton if Florida and Michigan are seated as is (which is highly unlikely to begin with). This would be a large victory for Clinton and would embolden her campaign to continue along the largely negative track that it’s followed for some time.

In conclusion, it’s extremely difficult to expect Obama to pick up a victory in Pennsylvania. A popular-vote win would end the campaign immediately, but even if he comes within a few percentage points, he will be able to effectively hold Clinton’s delegate gains to the low single digits – while taking the largest prize remaining off the table. The key to his ‘victory’, so to speak, is to run up the margins in Philadelphia while keeping his losses in Western PA to a minimum. For Clinton, it’s imperative for her to outperform in the ‘Pennsyltucky’ districts and in northeast PA – while running up the statewide popular vote tally.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)

Although many of us would like the presidential primary to be over sooner rather than later, it doesn’t appear that Hillary Clinton will withdraw from the race before Montana and South Dakota – the last two states to vote – have had their say on June 3rd. With that being said, I’d like to post my projections of what will happen in the last 8 states to vote. In the next couple of weeks, I will go about chronicling each district in each state and my reasoning behind my apportionment of delegates. All of my delegate numbers are based on the allocations that appear at The Green Papers. Furthermore, as I have no idea what may occur in Guam or Puerto Rico (or have accurate numbers on delegate apportionment in Puerto Rico; TGP is missing some districts, it appears), I won’t venture guesses as to their results.

So below, please find my preliminary estimates for delegate apportionment, followed by a conclusion of where the delegate numbers will stand at the end of the voting season. Note that all of my estimates may change in my state-by-state analysis, as this is something of an incomplete analysis as of now.
Pennsylvania (April 22nd, 158 pledged delegates)

Pennsylvania is the biggest state left to award delegates to be up next. While recent polling has shown a recent upward trend for Obama, I still am pessimistic about his chances to close the gap. Polls in Ohio became favorable towards Obama – the best state to look at in terms of comparison – and he still lost by 10%. Clinton will win the state on her strength in western, southern, and northeastern PA.

Preliminary Estimate
Hillary Clinton: 56%, 87 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 44%, 71 pledged delegates

Indiana (May 6th, 72 pledged delegates)

Indiana is being seen as a true battleground state: on the one hand, it borders Obama’s home state of Illinois; to date, he has won every state that borders it. On the other hand, it has a great deal of the same working-class white population that has been a part of Clinton’s base, particularly in Ohio. The only recent poll, done by SurveyUSA, puts Clinton on top 52-43. She has the backing of Sen. Evan Bayh, and Bill Clinton has been putting a lot of time into the state. Obama has a lot of ground to make up, but I don’t think the final results will differ much from the SUSA poll. Clinton will win the popular vote in the high single digits, but she won’t net many delegates from her victory.

Preliminary Estimate
Hillary Clinton: 54%, 38 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 46%, 34 pledged delegates

North Carolina (May 6th, 115 pledged delegates)

North Carolina is proving to be friendly territory for Obama; in all recent polling, he is up by a healthy double-digit margin. The two states North Carolina is sandwiched between, Virginia and South Carolina, both gave Obama nearly 30% victories over Clinton. Count on Obama winning this state handily by running up the margins in the cities and in ‘The Triangle’. His net delegate take over Clinton will be slightly less than South Carolina because of the western part of the state, which is demographically friendly territory for Clinton.

Preliminary Estimate
Barack Obama: 58%, 63 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 42%, 52 pledged delegates

West Virginia (May 13th, 28 pledged delegates)

It’s no secret that Obama has had notable trouble in the areas associated with Appalachia; he lost southeast Ohio and northeast Tennessee by exceedingly large margins. West Virginia is Appalachia personified, and even if he campaigns more in the state, this will be the state that gives Clinton only her second victory in which she gets more than 60% of the vote. While Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Rep. Nick Rahall have endorsed Obama, it probably won’t be enough to even come close in the popular vote.

Preliminary Estimate
Hillary Clinton: 65%, 19 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 35%, 9 pledged delegates

Kentucky (May 20th, 51 pledged delegates)

Kentucky is similar to West Virginia: both states are demographically friendly towards Clinton and have a large base of white working-class voters. Obama has earned the endorsement of freshman Rep. John Yarmouth, but again, it will likely do him no good. Clinton has a substantial advantage in every district except for the 3rd CD, which Obama may be able to fight to a delegate draw. This will be the third (and last) state to give Clinton over 60% of the popular vote. SurveyUSA shows the current breakdown to be 58%-29% in favor of Clinton.

Preliminary Estimate
Hillary Clinton: 62%, 33 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 38%, 18 pledged delegates

Oregon (May 20th, 52 pledged delegates)

The Northwest has been very friendly territory for Obama. The closest proxy for Oregon, Washington, went to Obama by an exceedingly large margin. That being said, it’s difficult to project the results because of the fact that Washington – along with almost all of the surrounding states in the Mountain West – have held caucuses, not primaries. While Washington’s February 19th primary was non-binding for Democrats, it showed a much closer result – Obama came ahead by about 5.5%. However, turnout was probably down because of its non-binding status and can really only be used as one barometer. With no polling available, I’m going to conservatively estimate that Obama will win the state by low double digits. The question is not if Obama will win, but by how much.

Preliminary Estimate
Barack Obama: 55%, 30 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 45%, 22 pledged delegates

Montana (June 3rd, 16 pledged delegates)

Montana has been friendly ground recently for Democrats; its governor (Brian Schweitzer) and both senators (Max Baucus and Jon Tester) are Democrats. As noted earlier, Obama has shown considerable strength in the Mountain West and should therefore be expected to take the state by the wide margin. Because of a quirk in Montana’s delegate apportionment (its 10 delegates awarded by congressional district will be split into two groups of 5, with the geography based on when the state had 2 CDs), Obama will be able to come out of the state with an extra pledged delegate.

Preliminary Estimate
Barack Obama: 60%, 9 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 40%, 7 pledged delegates

South Dakota (June 3rd, 15 pledged delegates)

Similarly, Obama has shown great strength in the Plains region and should win the South Dakota contest handily as well. He has the backing of the major Democratic players in the state – Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD-AL), Sen. Tim Johnson, and former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. If Obama breaks 62.5% of the vote, he could net out 2 more delegates from my projected results – but I don’t see it happening as of now.

Preliminary Estimate
Barack Obama: 60%, 8 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 40%, 7 pledged delegates

Conclusion
Going off the numbers calculated by the Obama campaign’s pledged delegate tracker, Obama currently leads Clinton 1,419-1,250 – a margin of 169 pledged delegates. My calculations above for the last 8 states net Clinton a total of 23 delegates (265 for her, compared with 242 for Obama). This would bring down Obama’s lead to 146 pledged delegates, 1,661-1,515. Using the numbers from DemConWatch, Obama’s lead shrinks to 116 delegates total.

This would leave the delegate count as follows:

Preliminary Estimate (w/o superdelegates)
Barack Obama: 1,661 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 1,515 pledged delegates

Preliminary Estimate (w/superdelegates, per DemConWatch)
Barack Obama: 1,877 total delegates
Hillary Clinton: 1,761 total delegates

All above numbers do not include Florida or Michigan.

Given that it appears some sort of compromise is being worked out between the DNC and the two states that broke the rules (Florida and Michigan), the margin may shrink even more. However, it’s a virtual certainty that Obama will end the primary season with a lead substantially over 100 pledged delegates (not counting Florida and Michigan). Furthermore, superdelegates have been endorsing Obama at a much faster pace than Clinton; her current advantage of 30 will likely shrink even further in the upcoming weeks and may disappear completely.

At this point, Clinton’s only hope of overtaking Obama in the delegate count is to have Florida and Michigan seated as is – a circumstance that is highly unlikely. The fact that both states will have representation on the Credentials Committee boosts her chances, but it’s more likely than not that this will not improve her chances. It’s telling that her latest campaign email (check your inboxes) calls for taking action to make sure Florida and Michigan ‘have a voice’. They know that it is their only chance…and it’s one that is likely to fail.

With Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid agreeing that something should be worked out by July 1st at the latest, it’s unlikely that a convention floor fight will result. Barack Obama is virtually certain to be our nominee.