Something Fraud Hunters Ought To Know

Benford’s Law.  Here it is described at Wolfram’s Mathworld… a great resource on mathematical concepts:  Benford’s Law.

In short, it turns out there is an unintuitive distribution of digits in the FIRST DIGIT of random numbers, especially justified in the case of counting up to a random number, such as a number of votes.  It’s weird, but makes sense… the digit one has a kind of head start on appearing in the number… and the likelihood that a first digit is a 1 in a random number is ~30%, not the ~11% you would think from the fact that 1 is one of nine possible values for a first digit.

Accounting and voting fraud both can be detected with this law, even if the fraud perpetrator knows the law and takes it into account, to fix the problem this person would have to control all the numbers, and if only some influence could be exerted, say in certain districts, they would have to know the complete final vote count to adjust their fraud to undetectable margins.

When searching to see if fraud activists know this, I found  this, a graduate students look at national results for 2004, and also, this detection of fraud in Venezuela.

Pardon me if this is well known… I am not actively following all the fraud research, but I do think it’s a key issue to straighten out before democracy can really be trusted…. so I do have a notion and certainty that a secure electronic/paper system can be devised for the nation, and an idea that we also need a joint state/federal agency to operate non-partisan elections, but this may be common knowledge among those investigating fraud in 2004.

MetaBoomanTribune

Sorry, this is probably not going to be a good idea for a diary.

But twice I came here to read a diary that I hear Armando posted here, or actually, more to read the comments which have been referred to.  I’m burnt out on this too but I’m still sure that it’s important and goes beyond blogland and into the roots of our difficulties with keeping our progressive coalition strong the last few decades.

The second time I came I realized… oh yeah, I didn’t read that because it was deleted/missing.  

Does anyone have a link… Armando’s Booman Tribune diary stack is empty, so I guess it may have been deleted?  Is it under another user… or what?
Things don’t just go away when you forget them… so I only half apologize about asking, but I am fully sincere in that half of the apology!  Sorry to those of you suffering exhaustion on the topic.

Zero Issue Voters

Honestly, politics 101: you make a coalition of compatible interests. You forge bonds of understanding for the concerns of others.  I mean, that’s in ANY political alliance, but in a progressive alliance, especially so, because ours is a philosophy of compassion. We know that if you know where someone is coming from, you can much better live and work together. Don’t we?

The problem isn’t single issue voters, it’s “Zero Issue Voters”. They just want to win, but what can they do for me? All they can offer is just what Republicans offer but less so. I get 97% of Republican judges confirmed instead of 100%…
And then I’ll get a lecture about this is important for winning elections?

And you know this how?

Well, I’ve been around a bit myself and I don’t think that’s how you’ll win, and I also don’t see how it’s any different than the progressive sellout we’ve been dealing with for 30 years. And if you DO win that way, I don’t see how you’ll be representing me at all with your Zero Issues.

Pragmatism is not about getting rid of your convictions, it’s about compromising on your conviction for practical reasons, to compromise, because a theory is not yet well implemented in practice or this sort of concern, but if you give up your issues, that’s not pragmatism, that’s just removing the rudder from your ship to replace it with an additional sail… look how FAST you’re moving now!

My problem with politics is Zero Issue Voters.

A Real Struggle: Tying together progressive philosophy

For me the real struggle is between:

  • those that want to let other people do their own thing,
  • and people that want to control other people.

That is the basic conflict for me.  

I know that there are other more important things from a material perspective but these all follow logically from letting people do their own thing.  The word follow is misleading because in fact the examples precede the logical connection, which is deduced from the evidence at hand.  There is a connection between having the right to liberty,  

The issue of labor is people doing what they think is best, they want more control of the workplace because of the time they spend there.  That’s the right to do your own thing… wherever you are, however you are spending your time, because it is your time and you have a finite supply of it.  

Rush Reads DailyKos On Air

Title says it all.  I listened to another 15 minutes of poison from El Idiot Supreme today and was surprised to hear him reading from DailyKos.

He was reading a piece from the woman that will be testifying before Congress, I guess, on Bolton’s nomination as UN Ambassador.

Rush said he was reading LGF (no really?!) and got the link to Daily Kos which was good entertainment, full of wackos just as crazy as Democratic Underground.

Update [2005-4-28 4:28:22 by pyrrho]: here is the link to the diary, Rush read the letter to daily kos users the diary presents. You can’t use that right now because dkos is down for maintenance.
Isn’t that <s>grand</s&gt <s>strange</s&gt something else?

I don’t have a link to the diary, but I would love to read it, I was too lazy to search and it didn’t seem to still be recommended if it had been.

The woman in question (I’ve not followed the Bolton thing closely) was admitting she was caught plagiarizing when she was 22, some 20 years ago… before the Republicans drug it out.

At least, assuming Rush really did read it verbatim as he represented.

You might say… why listen to Rush?  He’s poison!

But as Nietzsche said, I paraphrase, “A little poison now and then makes for pleasant dreams, a little poison in the end, a pleasant death.”  Maybe that’s not a good reason actually.

Meander through Unconditional Love

I have gone back and forth on unconditional love.  Firstly, unlike most people I’ve always felt that unconditional love was a vice, not an altruism.

I value science, I do not see physical science as distinct in the least from philosophy or politics.  The lessons are very human, and in fact, somewhat religious in nature.  For example, nearly all religions I’m familiar with teach humility of some kind as a supreme virtue, and the history of science teaches this ten times over, first unseating us from our special place at the center of the universe.  And every time it unseated us, and we accepted a lesser but still semi-central stature, we have been unseated again.

Modern man still isn’t quite aware how complete the dethronement has been, and wonders things like “do animals have souls” or more likely doesn’t wonder and treats them as if they don’t.
Unconditional love is a vice, but I believe in it.  I believe in it because I have to, I’m stuck with it.  I can put conditions on anything, but not my hope and love.  I can believe in harsh sides of love, I can believe a mother that unconditionally loves her child can turn him into the police, or refuse something he claims to need.

I believe there is so much vice in the world we can’t sort the world into the worthy and unworthy.  This is not some selfless concept, I repeat again so you might believe me.  I’m not claiming that unconditional love is selfless.  

Shall we love our enemy?  Can you love them and still fight for your survival against them?  If so, and I think so, then yes, love thy enemy.  Can we trust Republicans… does love require trust?  Conditional love does, but unconditional love happens even in the absence of trust.  So it’s possible to love, unconditionally, and still not trust.  Do I love Rush Limbaugh.  Well, not warmly, but do I hold out the hope that Rush might grow and learn, or his children might, or his listeners?  Yes.

The meek shall inherit the earth… that maxim always appealed to me because I see the meek not as the weak, but as those who are slaves to unconditional love.  Their unconditional love leads them into trust and other things implied but not really required by their love.

I believe the free world of the future only comes when the meek as I’ve defined them find the power of their voice and perspective.  It’ll happen when the meek find out how to fight for what they believe and win.

This is in contradiction to the idea many have of meek which is merely the dictionary definition #2 in this definition from American Heritage (via dictionary.com)

   1. Showing patience and humility; gentle.
   2. Easily imposed on; submissive.

I say that the meek are really definition (1) but have been easy victims using their patience and gentle humility against them so far, and this gave them a reputation as definition 2.  To me, 1 is fundamental and 2 is mere libel.  You can say they are easily imposed on, but then why do they never give up?  Why do they persist?  Their patience has lead to submission but doesn’t have to and will not forever.  They struggle to overcome and do.

And this is how I as an atheist interpret Christ’s influence.  Christ’s message is so far from the message of most Churchs and most Christians now and throughout history one wonders why they carried it to the present, and for me it’s because the power of the meek, while so far an undercurrent, will still have it’s day in the sun, and when it arrives it will be much more stable and robust.  Mankind as we know it cannot imagine peace on Earth, but the meek can.

It was the assertion of a very strong message about the power of unconditional love, and about the reality that people do change.  The strength to have patience comes from the reality that all things change, which gives hope.

So I warned you this time I was meandering, but if I owe you a point it’s merely that, there is no such thing as conditional love, only alliance can be conditional, love is its own condition.

But if I can get away with just a question instead of a point, then it’s “What does ‘unconditional love’ mean to you?”

Partisanship

I can’t stand partisanship.  Naturally stating this sentiment means I’m immediately suspect in any coalition except if it is made up exclusively of non-conformists, and even then they will suspect you may prefer to join the pro-conformists.  

But not preferring partisanship does not mean I will betray any of the principles a given party ought to adopt.  There are after all other thing besides party to believe in, and if the party consistently believes them, there is a good chance I can find a group which agrees with mine.  Or at least it should be.

The sophisticated observer (I suppose) will consider this partly a semantic issue, since all people want their parties to represent something beyond party alone, namely some principles.  But those principles are designed to use as criteria the interests of some party, be it civil libertarians, kings, or even political parties.  That makes it a semantic issue, specifically, one has to define the scope of the partisanship: who are you being loyal to in your “inevitable” partisanship?

In the political context we have:

  • individual
  • locale
  • political party
  • nation
  • world
  • metaphysical

Which party shall you be partisan too, that is the question now.  The party in question might be any kind really, not just a political party but any private party, individual or group, who has an interest or identity.  

Not being politically partisan opens up the possibility of choosing policies which are good for the nation but are bad for the party.  Since a party sees itself as doing good, this possibility in itself seems bad.  But for the party to do a net good for the nation as it sees itself doing, it cannot choose policy which is bad for the nation, so that assumption should be ignored.  We would expect this from a Church for example, to follow it’s principles not it’s personal advantage.  But again, who are the principles for?  For a progressive it must be some broad group, such as a whole nation, but if so, why not the whole world?

Many progressives will tell you their affiliation is to the whole world, and you will be able to doubt that is even possible, since they are at least incidentally on one side or another of conflicts, even those they have no say in.

Once again, my definition for partisanship is making judgments based on party rather than principle.  To think otherwise requires assuming the party acts on all it’s principles even when it hurts the party.  Organizations don’t work that way.  One argument for partisanship is that they can’t work that way.  To survive you have to be willing to fight for survival, and principles come second.  Of course, this is true and the excuse of all time, the excuse which the genealogy of all morals has evolved to overcome.  It’s true, but by defending all compromise on principle and loyalty to party it justified the worst of human social theory.

Partisanship for the individual as a general concept hits much closer to the mark, especially if it’s taken as an abstraction of an individual member of society.  This is not being partisan to an particular individual such yourself, but to the concept of an individual, someone that has their own desires and ideas and need for freedom, among others which are the same in these abstractions but unique in all particulars.

I think such a party could be constructed which respects this and it would not be surprised that it could not command consistent conformity.  It would only work to discover any conformity, commanding it would be out of the question.

How can such a party survive and achieve power?  That’s what we’d really like to know because progressive parties have usually been the way I’ve described.  They are groups of non-conformists.  I think the answer lies in “concept work”.  We lack more than words, we lack the ideas.  This may seem belittling but we have the components and clear visions, we lack only more engineering of these components into true conceptual machines of the type capable of moving social mountains.

We need to discover, not dictate, but discover those principles upon which we agree.  Not only that.  On the metaphors and narratives upon which we agree.  Which history we agree with, which we don’t.

If there were no such concepts to discover then we would not have an alliance to begin with.  If you look at the conservative alliance it’s not held together by policy agreement, it’s an identity politic that’s working.  It may be the strict father traditional family model, I think that’s a decent approximation at the least.  It lacks principles that really generate consistent policy.  The progressives have the policy agreement, and need the principle agreement.  That cannot come from convincing each other of our principles… only from building new principles.

That means parties must be forced to adopt these new principles, rather than principles forced to adopt these old parties.

Progressives need to find these thread and then imbue that on the party of their choice.  We do need parties to run politics at least for the time being, and engineering what we want as a group that needs a party will lead to the engineering that could repair a party itself.

Democrats Are Being Used

This is a hard cold fact that Democrats have trouble hearing… the Democrats and Republicans have lead together.  To-gether.  Not one and then the other, not in combat, but together.

When people say that Democrats are just as bad as Republicans, this is not just about both being equally bad… that is not the real gist of the problem.  Given a comparison, the Democrats have long been better.

The problem is the partnership, it is, exactly, a “good cop bad cop” system.  Did Carter distance the US from the Shah?
Recently, elsewhere on the net, one supposedly moderate but hawkish conservative reacted to my perspective on torture (it’s not tolerable) with a very blunt answer… they believed me, and they would rely on people like me to fix the mess and back off of a pro-torture policy when the time came.  Meanwhile, it’s cowboy.  

From a petty political perspective this is similar to a prediction that the US will sicken of these practices… it will wise up and choose a civilized path again.  But no, it means that we progressives are just one side of America’s mouth.  There is only one thing to think about such an approach, we are the carrot, they are the stick, and we cannot pretend we are not a part of this system where liberalism and conservativism are nothing but two sides of a behaviorialist approach to oppression… we’re the cop that gets the suspect a glass of water, but we don’t stop him getting beat, and we don’t turn down the pay check, and we don’t create progress, not that way.

I see the real task for progressives as breaking this cycle.  I don’t want to be the guy America can point to and say “see… this one doesn’t want to kill you all” just long enough to convince the world to extend some trust again and then again it’s back to the bad cop.

This is what really leads my most activist friends to have no hope for Democrats… it’s not that they don’t realize the benefit of Democratic policies, but they picture their role perpetuating the overall system.  They see their role softening and making palatable practices which might create a violent reaction if not softened this way.  We are here to let steam off the oppressure cooker, and there is not much room to deny that, I’m sad to say.

The Speed of Utopia

Does “the speed of light exist”?  You can’t reach the speed of light, no matter how fast you go.  You can get close to the speed of light, very close, as close as you care to get if you don’t run out of energy, but to actually achieve the speed of light you’d need an infinite amount of energy.

But the speed of light does exist, it’s a limit and asymptote.  Although it cannot be achieved, it exists, and is in fact a fundamental value in nature.

So too with utopia.
Utopian dreams can be dangerous.  Fascists have “utopian” dreams, but this does not scare me off personally from contemplating a real utopia, one that does not emerge from killing or hate, because the idea of that utopia is inherent in the idea of progress.  Can it be achieved?  To an arbitrary degree yes, though there is likely a level of decreasing return on the energy put in.

And when we get 95% utopia there will still be plenty of problems for people… from the problems of the passions, rejections, thrilling love affairs, the struggle to succeed (“I will invent a space elevator!”), from political and artistic triumph and from the episodes of chaos sent by mother nature.

I want to see these dreams stated so our ideas can be clear.  We believe in progress… but what is that?

Deescalating My Booman Involvement, goodbye cruel world

After many hours of Booman Tribune involvement, I have come to the conclusion that while it showed a lot of promise, there are some aspects with which I cannot put up.

Like, um, one of the yellow pixels in the logo pisses me off.  It should be blue.

I used to have high hopes for the Booman Tribune, the frog, the dog, the few number of recommends to get a recommended diary.  But you know what… if my diary isn’t recommended by now who am I trying to fool… you are obviously bad-liberals rather than the good kind I have come to expect.  That is obvious.  Good people don’t not recommend something because it is crud, they recommend it BECAUSE it’s crud to inspire the recommender.  Or is that the recommendee?  I lost track of my complaint.

I mean who is booman trying to fool, obviously this site, while appearing to be about me (I see my own name to the right) is really about not-me.  This just isn’t acceptable in a me-shaped universe.

It was nice while it lasted.
Actually I’m checking it daily.  Just thought I’d get this out of the way and be the first one ever to write a Goodbye Cruel World Diary at Booman Tribune.  And if someone points out I’m not actually the first, well that’d just be typical wouldn’t it… and prove my point as well.  The point about the Booman Tribune being insufficiently aboutmeary.

Mind you, I’m sick of my (discourse) addictions being exploited in this way but. if the high is good I’ll be there… you bastards.

I swear I’ll write a serious diary soon.  Or I’ll come up with an explanation of why this was in fact serious.  Or I’ll melt.