Author: Tally

Originally posted at FLAPolitics

Congresswoman Karen Thurman, Chair of the Florida Democratic Party (FDP), titled a recent email “The Road to the Presidency Runs Through Central Florida”. Like most missives from a political party it was soliciting funds (which is to be expected). This one was for the Democratic challenger in the special election for a central Florida State House seat.  

But, the email’s title spoke to me, because I’ve been thinking along the same lines recently. Let me explain.
Way back in December of 2006 James Carville and Mark Penn did an op-ed piece in the Washington Post that made the case for how Hillary could win the presidency:

Certainly she could win the states John Kerry did. But with the pathbreaking possibility of this country’s first female president, we could see an explosion of women voting — and voting Democratic. States that were close in the past, from Arkansas to Colorado to Florida to Ohio, could well move to the Democratic column. It takes only one more state to win.

And then in an interview with Tom Schaller, Carville added which state was the most likely to go Hillary’s way:

Carville puts Arkansas, Florida, and Virginia in Tier 1, with Louisiana and Tennessee in Tier 2. That makes sense in terms of ranking, but I pressed him to pick the one state he thought Hillary was most likely to flip, if she were to win only one. He picked Florida.

Now, I’m not exactly a fan of Hillary‘s, but if she does get the nomination, I still want her to win. Also, I think there would be a silver lining for Florida if she does get the nomination. Before I proceed, let me post a map of Florida showing the counties.

In a comment to a diary I wrote right after the election, GatorDem made the point that the key to winning a state-wide election in Florida for a Democrat was for the candidate to hold his or her own in the part of central Florida known as the I-4 corridor. I looked at this phenomenon in depth in my diary called What Can We Learn From the Florida State-Wide Races of 2006?

The only state-wide race in Florida for 2008 will be the presidency. That means that if Hillary wants to win Florida’s 27 electoral votes, she has to do okay in central Florida.

In 2006, the Democrat running for Chief Financial Officer, Alex Sink, did all right there. If we look at her totals for the central Florida counties (Brevard, Citrus, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Manatee, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Lucie, Sumter, and Volusia) we see that she bested her opponent Tom Lee 1,122,770 to 1,059,063 (51.5%-48.5%).

For comparison, the 2006 Democratic candidate for governor, Jim Davis, lost to Charlie Crist in those same counties by 954,960 to 1,221,558 (43.9%-56.1%) and Democratic candidate for attorney general, Skip Campbell, lost to Bill McCollum 973,653 to 1,220,365 (44.4%-55.6%).

In 2004 John Kerry lost the central Florida counties 45.8%-54.2%. In 2000 Al Gore also lost, but was closer, 48.6%-51.4%. Again, the point to be made is that if you’re a Democrat and you break even in this area, then you’ve won the state wide race.

But, in the last six years, the only two Democrats to do that are Senator Bill Nelson and CFO Sink. We know Nelson‘s situation is special, being a celebrity ex-astronaut (he won the area 60.8%-39.1%). And it’s possible that Alex Sink‘s case was also unique. She was perfectly qualified for the position, having been a bank executive, she has a lot of personal charisma, and the CFO position avoids the usual liberal-conservative issues that other races get mired in.

So, this is not exactly going to be a cakewalk for Hillary.

If Sen. Clinton wants to do well in the same area she needs to have a strong message and be ready to spend some money. Is there anything else she can do to help her chances?

Republicans control most of the US House seats through the area. Kathy Castor has the safe Democratic seat in FL-11 and Corrine Brown has the majority minority FL-03, but Ginny Brown-Waite is in FL-05, Cliff Stearns in FL-06, Ric Keller in FL-08, Gus Bilirakis is in FL-09, Bill Young is in FL-10, Adam Putnam in FL-12, Dave Weldon in FL-15, Tom Feeney in FL-24, and everyone knows what happened in FL-13.

The lop-sided result is due to the masterful gerrymandering (pdf map of districts) that the Republican legislature accomplished in 2002 and the sorry state of the FDP before Congresswoman Thurman took over.

Now the DCCC has said it is going to target FL-10, probably because they feel Young is going to retire (he’s 76 and has been in congress since 1971). And I’m sure FL-13 is going to get some attention. But what about the rest of them?

One way that Hillary can insure that she does well in central Florida, and thereby win all of the 27 electoral votes, and the presidency, is to make sure that the FDP and the DCCC find serious Democratic challengers for these seats. She can then help them along by funneling some of her megabucks into the races thru the DCCC.

The big advantage is that any challenger to these Republican US House members can still run against George Bush, since this bunch will be part of his rubber stamp congress. If a coordinated campaign against them can be mounted that nationalizes these elections in the same way that Ron Klein successfully did in beating 12 term congressman Clay Shaw in FL-22, then the Democratic vote thru the area will be highly energized.

Since the major media markets in the area overlap several districts, a Friends of Hillary PAC can hammer all the Republican incumbents at once for being stooges for George Bush and Tom DeLay. Why wasn’t proper oversight performed by congress while Bush was running the country into the ground during the six years they were in exclusive power?

You know as well as I do that everyone wants another chance to vote against our incompetent president. Hillary can give it to central Florida Democratic voters by following this strategy.

Another advantage to having Hillary as the candidate would be that she could get Bill to come down to fund raise and campaign with these Democratic challengers. Who would people in Hillsborough County rather see, Gus Bilirakis or Bill Clinton? If the former president shuttled back and forth across the center of the state a couple of times during the election, it would have a dramatic effect.

And when Hillary comes, she could make the trip with Alex Sink. This would allow Hillary to gain the immediate advantage of Sink‘s charisma and strong, fiscally conservative message, and also provide the added effect that having two women politicians appearing together would accomplish by energizing Democratic women to come out and vote.

Now, it’s not critical to Hillary‘s prospects for any of the Democratic candidates to win any of these seats, only that enough Democrats turn out and also vote for her so that she does well enough to win the state.

But, if some good candidates (like Rod Smith) can be recruited, and the FDP and DCCC can coordinate the campaigns so that they’re effective, and Hillary can divert enough money to them to get the message out, then it’s possible some of the Republican congressmen can be defeated as well.

Hey, a win-win. So, what’s Carville‘s email address?

Hillary Clinton, Florida, FL-05, FL-06, FL-08, FL-09, FL-10, FL-12, FL-13, FL-15, FL-24

Several weeks ago I posted a diary over at Daily Kos called Run, Dee Dee, Run. In it I called on people to email a note of encouragement to a popular ex-politician who was thinking about running for a Florida State House seat that had come open due to the Governor appointing the Republican incumbent to a state administrative job.

A local Pensacola, Florida blog reported the results this way:

Earlier this week, the liberal national blog Daily Kos posted a reference to Ritchie possibly running and she was flooded with emails voicing support.

But, it was to no avail. Dee Dee decided that she didn’t have the fire needed for a full scale dead heat special election set for February 27. At first, I was disappointed, but then I realized what my true purpose in this whole affair was.
To tell you the truth, Dee Dee was a well-connected local celebrity, she didn’t need our help. But, I must thank her for her equivocation, because it drew me into the race. And that is where I learned about Liz Campbell.

Liz retired from the Navy in March of 2006 and moved back to her home for the last decade, Pensacola, Florida. A three-term Republican incumbent, Holly Benson, was planning on running unopposed for the State House District 3 seat. As a proud Democrat, Liz decided that wouldn’t do and jumped into the race even though she would only have six months to build an organization and campaign.

Of course, you can guess how the election came out. She got thumped 62% to 38%, but at least she did better than the candidate for the US Congressional District for that region. He lost 68%-32%! So, maybe she did do a few things right. And she definitely wasn’t a quitter. She had already pre-registered for the 2008 election for the seat. And when the special election was announced she quickly threw her hat in the ring.

Back when I was rooting for Dee Dee I pooh-poohed Campbell as a token candidate. I was hoping the State Democratic Party and the Democratic State Legislators would use their power and influence to persuade her to withdraw so that we could quickly unite around a strong candidate.

But then something real funny happened.

After Dee Dee pulled out I started thinking about it and realized that Liz Campbell is the kind of candidate the netroots is made for. She’s not glamorous, she’s not well-connected, she’s just a decent, hardworking, dedicated public servant. What was I thinking!

Liz has a website if you’d like to check it out. You can also donate money there through a secure server.

But, why should you bother? She’s just a little nobody in a Podunk corner of a problematic purple state.

Well, first let me quote from this St. Petersburg Times article that came out right after the election:

But most intriguing is what happened in the Florida House. Democrats lost control of the chamber a decade ago and have been losing seats ever since. But on Tuesday they gained seven seats, ousting two Republican incumbents and winning five open seats. . .

That’s right. The 2006 elections turned the tide here in Florida. And now Democrats have the opportunity to start pushing back.

Nationally, the 2006 elections were a test of DNC Chairman Howard Dean‘s 50 State Strategy, being competitive in as many areas as possible. The House District 3 special election is a chance to implement that policy here in Florida.

The real point here is this is a special election, and everything depends on turnout. This race is one of those where you can actually steal a seat with a little hustle. And it’s not an impossibility. The popular Democratic Senator Bill Nelson won the district in the 2006 election.

Okay, so it’s important. But what’s it got to do with you. Well, the easiest way to answer that is to say 27 electoral college votes. That’s what Florida has. And, in case you haven’t noticed, they haven’t been in the “D” column for a decade.

In other words . . .

If you want your presidential candidate (whoever that might be) to get Florida’s 27 electoral votes and thereby win the 2008 election, then you need to donate money to Liz‘s campaign today.

If you want your presidential candidate (whoever that might be) living in the White House starting in 2009, then you need to recommend this diary so even more people will see it and donate money.

If you want your presidential candidate (whoever that might be) to be able to lead this nation in a new direction two years from now, then you need to support our efforts at Turning Florida Blue, because we’re working our butts off down here to make it all happen.

Let’s do the John Lennon thing. I want you to imagine this possibility. What if this effort is so successful at raising money for Liz she actually wins?

What if every Democrat in the district can be targeted? What if busloads of volunteers can be brought in from heavily Democratic Tallahassee to help out? What if Liz has enough money for air time to get her message out?

Look, if Liz Campbell wins this seat it will be front page news in every newspaper in Florida. And who do you think would get the credit if Liz does win? That’s right, YOU and the netroots!

Every politician in the country will sit up and take notice. Time magazine will be right! You are the Person of the Year.

Before Dee Dee dropped out I responded to a Campbell supporter’s dissatisfaction with my championing of Ritchie with this:

I wished we lived in a world where people like Liz Campbell won by big majorities instead of people like Holly Benson.

But we don’t. I’m sorry.

You know what? I was speaking like some stinking pundit spouting the conventional wisdom when I said that. And I’m ashamed of myself.

Prove me wrong. Show me we DO live in a world like that!

Click here to contribute to Liz’s campaign.

If you perfer to mail a check, the address is:

Elizabeth Campbell Campaign
3305 W. Lee St
Pensacola Fl. 32505

[ActBlue cannot accept contributions for candidates in Florida races due to campaign finance laws]

I was cleaning up my hard drive when I came across a poem I wrote after reading Camille Paglia’s wonderful book about poetry, Break Blow Burn. My background is engineering, so I haven’t exactly been a big fan of poetry in my life. About the only poetry I can remember reading is stuff written by different women I dated during the ten years between my two marriages.

So, that should give you some idea of how much the book affected me. I read it backwards, starting from her fantastic explication of Joni Mitchell‘s song Woodstock. After getting steeped in all that symbolism my subconscious exploded and the poem came out.

The poem is below. (Hat tip to my niece who clued me in on the term False Profit).

It starts with the fall of the Berlin Wall, progresses through the go-go Nineties, on to Clinton‘s fall from grace, Gore‘s failure, and the evil Bush‘s rise, without mentioning any of that by name. It ends with a chilling image from Katrina. It was done before the Folly in Iraq became the sine qua non of progressive poetic expression. But that’s already been well taken care of here.

                                   False Hopes

Bloody bricks crumbled and the dreaded red flag fell
Astonished, our over eager optimism dreamt a millennial peace
Sugary songs of bullish, dotty communicators sent our senses soaring
                   While golden fountains flowed
Even the profligate potentate’s pockets bulged

Maybe, just maybe, our children would see the garden . . . No.

First, the King lost his sword and spilled the beans after turning in
Puling hounds chased after him, licking up the mess and nipping his knickers
The Regent’s time had come and gone
His favorite son divorced his regnant life and married the preacher
                    But still no one liked him

Reborn Jesus conserved the Buddha, yet forced his way
In flowery places by counting to five
The Arragator burnt our bridge and took us for a ride
Setting the stage for it all to come tumbling down

Rockefeller steals the baby’s rattle while the straw man is set ablaze
The False Profit, full of flatulent afflatus, keeps fulfilling the final days

We gag
On rank retchings
Of righteous lies

                    The stink of rot and ruin floods through

                             Sweeping the Bloated Body

                    Of our dead dream onto deserted streets

Mary Cheney‘s very public pregnancy has made the issue of parenting by same-sex couples very topical. Here in Florida it only reminds us that we are coming up on the thirty year anniversary of the gay adoption ban.

You have to have been around for a while to remember Anita Bryant’s crusade against homosexuality in Miami back in the late 70’s. One of the results of that effort was that the state legislature passed a law banning gay adoptions in Florida.

But, I want to bring attention to the heroic long term efforts by Equality Florida to address this issue.

Equality Florida is the premier group fighting for LGBT equality in Florida. This is how they describe themselves:

Equality Florida is a grassroots, statewide human rights organization working on behalf of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people to secure equality and fairness, regardless of sexual orientation or gender identity.  Our top priorities are: ending Florida’s ban on gay and lesbian adoption, making schools safe for LGBT students, ending workplace discrimination, and gaining legal recognition for our families through domestic partnerships and equal access to legal protections only marriage can provide.

We have offices in St. Petersburg and Miami and provide a full-time lobbyist in Tallahassee during the legislative session.

That last phrase means they’re serious.

The organization is politically neutral. In fact, the site even contains one of those automated letter writers on the following action item about two Republican politicians:  

Thank Governor-Elect Crist for Addressing Discrimination

Governor-Elect Charlie Crist wants to make sure he knows if potential new staff members have a history of discrimination, including sexual orientation discrimination, and has included the question on a hiring questionnaire.

A far-right organization has launched a campaign to tell Governor-Elect Crist and Senate President-Elect Ken Pruitt that they shouldn’t care if employees have discriminated against others based on sexual orientation.

Please take a moment to Thank Charlie Crist and Ken Pruitt for caring about whether new employees have a history of discrimination.

It turns out that this organization has been seriously working for years to overturn the ban and to create the political groundwork for doing so.  Last year they got close.

A partner with them in this effort was the ACLU. I want to quote in full the report of that effort written by ACLU  Legislative Counsel Larry Helm Spalding:

Yesterday was an historic day in the Florida Senate. We did not prevail, but our message was heard.

Gay families, child welfare advocates, civil liberties organizations, researchers and adoption experts were able to present their case before the Senate Committee on Children & Families on a cold North Florida Valentine’s Day.

I frankly did not believe it would happen. But it did.

As I viewed yesterday’s committee calendar with an extensive agency report and six bills scheduled for consideration, I foresaw the gay adoption bill being given minimal time for consideration or bumped to next week. Instead the committee, to its absolute credit, permitted everyone who wanted to speak to do so.

And speak they did with eloquence and passion.

Frank Alexander, 18, forced to leave his home, his brothers and sisters, and his foster fathers who had raised him since he was only a few months old, led the press conference and the committee meeting. He put a face on the message the coalition was trying to convey: This is a bill about children.

He was dynamic, emotional, genuine. There was not a dry eye at the press conference after he spoke.

Cathy James told the committee if her partner of 11 years died, every heterosexual in the room would have a right to adopt her son Tyler, but not her. You could have heard a pin drop.

Coalition researchers and child welfare professionals brought a wealth of evidence that supported the end to this discriminatory ban. Their case was compelling.

Afterward legislative staffers said they had never seen such a diverse, powerful and well-prepared group of speakers. The halls of the Capitol were filled with people talking about the incredible testimony the coalition delivered.

Committee members acknowledged the avalanche of email and phone calls in support, not only from gay constituents, but also from straight couples, parents, people they knew and respected.

I want to thank each of you who responded to the ACLU Legislative Alerts asking that you contact the members of the Senate Committee on Children & Families. We are active members in the coalition and the gay adoption bills are one of our priorities for Florida Legislature 2006.

At the end of the day, the bill was temporarily passed over meaning that of the five committee members present only two, both Democrats, were prepared to vote for the bill. But we can take heart in the fact that a genuine debate has begun. This issue is no longer in the closet.

No one spoke against the bill. No senator who was prepared to vote against the bill publicly stated his or her reasons for opposition. It would have been hard to do so.

Nadine Smith, executive director of Equality Florida, who heads the coalition deserves high praise for organizing the press conference and preparing witnesses to testify before the committee. She did a masterful job. (emphasis added)

This is a battle that can be won. It will not likely be this session, but there remains work we can and must do, particularly in the House of Representatives where we hope to have the companion bill placed on the agenda soon.

Those of you who have influence with conservative members of the Florida Legislature need to reach out to them. We need to explain that this is a bill about children — children who need and deserve a loving family.

I believe family values and the moral high ground are on our side. Again thank you for your support on SB 172 and I urge your continued participation as these gay adoption companion bills move through the legislative process.

The same ACLU page quoted a Tampa Tribune article written by Jerome R. Stockfisch February 15, 2006:

Two dozen supporters addressed lawmakers, with no one rising in public opposition to the bill. That suggested heavy behind-the-scenes lobbying by conservative groups such as the Florida Catholic Conference, which acknowledged its opposition Tuesday.

Gov. Jeb Bush also said Tuesday that he thinks “current law is the appropriate policy for our state.”

Cue the booing. We can still be partisan even if they’re not. The Tribune piece also contains this:

State Sen. Nan Rich, D-Weston, told a packed hearing room that she did not have the votes for passage of [the] bill . . . . But Rich said her fellow advocates should celebrate the “baby step” of even getting the issue aired in the conservative Capitol.

Rich’s bill would have provided an exception to a state law passed in 1977 that bans adoptions by homosexuals.

Florida is the only state with such an outright ban, although Utah and Mississippi have enacted laws requiring adoptive parents to be married.

“I’m looking to get a foot in the door to begin to resolve this issue and eliminate this discriminating statute,” Rich said after Tuesday’s hearing. “We’re not going to let it die. Good bills take a number of years sometimes, and we’ll just keep working at it until we get people to realize the importance of changing the statute.”

That’s the secret of how the coalition has reframed the issue. They just want to allow judges to make “exceptions” on a “case-by-case basis”. Which, of course, lifts the ban without lifting the ban. It should be pointed out that all adopted parents have to presently undergo a very rigorous screening process, so adding this additional step is not prohibitive in any way.

When I first started thinking about writing this piece I thought to myself, “Boy it sure would be cool if Bob Butterworth, the newly appointed head of the Florida Department of Children and Families would come out against the ban.”  Butterworth is a prominent Democrat that Crist recently appointed in a spirit of bi-partisanship.

Well, the Florida Times-Union interviewed him and guess what:

Your thoughts on gay adoption are very relevant, given DCF’s role in such cases. Your thoughts?

The law in the state is that you can’t have gay adoptions. … My feeling is that it should be up to the judge. I’m not advocating for gay or lesbian adoptions. I’m saying, let a judge decide who’s an appropriate parent or not.

He is obviously well schooled in what Equality Florida has been trying to do and is right there on the mark with the correct talking point. Bob always was politically astute.

Equality Florida has all the bases covered. The site includes a scholarly study (pdf) entitled The High Cost of Denying Permanency: An Analysis of the Economic Impact of Florida’s Adoption Ban. From the executive summary:

The long-term social, educational, and emotional costs to children
raised in foster care are well documented. But Florida’s law prohibiting
otherwise qualified gay and lesbian adults from adopting children also
takes a substantial economic toll on the State.

And from the conclusion:

Despite the massive cost, infrastructure, and best efforts of DCF staff,
community-based care contractors and foster parents, the State of Florida
has failed to provide thousands of foster children with permanent adoptive
homes.

Florida’s adoption ban exacerbates this problem. Each time a child is
denied the opportunity to be adopted out of foster care because of the
ban, that child is denied the security and permanency that only adoption
can provide. In addition, the State of Florida commits to spend tens of
thousands of dollars to maintain that child unnecessarily in a foster care
system that is virtually guaranteed to lessen the child’s life prospects. In
sum, from both a fiscal and child welfare perspective, Florida’s adoption
ban comes at a high price.

In other words, not only is the proposal good for kids, it saves the state money! Talk about a no-brainer. This is what the idiocy of the right-wing fundamentalists brings us to.

But I’ve saved the best for last:

This report recommends that the Florida state legislature repeal the
current law which prohibits qualified gay and lesbian individuals and
couples from becoming adoptive parents, even for children for whom
they serve as foster parents. (emphasis added)

That’s right. Gays and lesbians can foster children in Florida, but they can’t adopt them! Whew!

Please visit this site and, if you can afford it, donate some money. If you live in Florida, go ahead and send some automated letters to your governmental representatives while you’re there. If nothing else, keep Equality Florida and all the foster children in Florida in your thoughts and prayers.

I’ll keep posting updates about the issue through the legislative session.