If you were a Brit, how would you as a Yank be voting?

(I put this up on DKos not at all sure that it would work out as an idea, It seems to have done, so I thought those of you on here might like to give it a go)

There is a fascinating questionnaire for all Brits on the Internet which tells them where their politics lie in relation to the remainder of the population in their area. It has some surprising results and is intelligently designed so is worth a few minutes of your time.

Have you ever wondered where you, as an American, would fit into the voting population of the UK.

Would you with your driving capitalism, death penalties, gun laws and dislike of public ownership be somewhere to the right of the most extreme? Now is your chance to find out!
You will be asked a different sort of question than those I posed above but I am certainly curious to see where you would stand in relation to the rest of your suddenly adopted fellow Brits in UK politics.

You will find  a bit of guidance to help you do the survey as an American and the actual link to the survey here

Enjoy. It is quite thought provoking. Come back here and tell us the result.

Disaster Looms But Nobody Seems To Care

With so little serious forewarnings about the economic situation being signalled by our governments, as they continue their desperate attempts to encourage us to spend, spend, SPEND, it is essential we pick up the signs from wherever they come.

This article in the Times tells you clearly what is to come.

Yet beneath this rosy gloss, there was a tone of edginess to the G7 conclusions, and a palpable sense of unease seemed to have infected the Washington gatherings. Despite their avowed confidence in the outlook, the G7 ministers called for “vigorous action” to tackle global imbalances.

An outbreak of jitters is well justified, and the G7 delegates are not alone in their sudden apparent nervousness. It is shared by some of the more influential and authoritative observers of the world economy.

Paul Volcker, the former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve and one of the most respected figures among international policymakers, is among those who are deeply worried. In a recent analysis in the Washington Post, he wrote: “Circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot.”

Get ready to run, duck, hide and eat loads of lentil soup.

The world is dependant on you increasing your debt. It is up to you Americans to jeapordise the future of you children. This is what Mr Bush and the world needs you to do:

The core problem is the divergent performance of the world’s big economies, with the present global expansion dependent on the continued robust growth of the US and China, while the eurozone struggles and Japan’s latest revival threatens to stall.

This uneven pattern of growth has left world prospects dependent on a US expansion fuelled by America’s extravagant consumers and fiscally lax Government. The world is reliant on an America that is living far beyond its means, with national spending exceeding income by more than a fifth over the past five years.

The result has been that the US has now gone from being the world’s biggest creditor to its biggest debtor in just two decades, with an annual current account deficit expected to reach 7 per cent of GDP by the end of this year, and annual government borrowing of more than $400 billion (£210 billion).

This American profligacy can be sustained only by the continued confidence of investors in the US economy, and their willingness to keep accumulating American IOUs.

Yes, it is up to Mr Bush to sell you his story and up to you to buy it. And buy it big.

And up to your  great friends China to keep bailing you out. And if they don’t? Read on:

Economists acknowledge that the Asian-American quid pro quo could perhaps carry on indefinitely. But the nagging fear is that it could unravel abruptly, with grave repercussions.

If markets were to decide that the situation were unsustainable, triggering a collapse in the dollar, Wall Street would be hit hard, and US Treasury bond prices would tumble, driving US market interest rates upwards.

The result would almost certainly be an American recession, and perhaps an outbreak of protectionism.

And why is Europe not helping to fuel the economy? Well you see Germany and France, in particular, are reluctant to give up their public expenditure on schools, hospitals and social security. Good liberal stuff but with a serious downside. When these two nations blocked proposals a couple of weeks ago for measures to give their economies a kick start from their current slow growth, they opted to retain the status quo.  The vote was for social cohesion.

As one exasperated European Commissioner, Gunter Verheugen, said “I tell people everywhere ‘You can have a strong economy without social cohesion, But you cannot have social cohesion – whatever that is -without a strong economy”.

Not good news for the ears of European liberals and the left. Sometimes there are hard choices for us.

On the other hand we did not in Europe face the lack of choice George Bush is giving the citizens of his country. No social security and decent free health care but instead bombs spreading American Values across the world and a domestic economy about to implode.

Start digging your vegetables in your back garden, folks.

(Cross posted from New European Times)

Then there were Pygmies – Nominate Bolton

(Cross posted from DKos because they never read past the first forty paragraphs of my not quite so short posts, it is not about religion nor about Bill Frist and so has squat all chance of being recommended)

In the main High Street in Caernarfon, there is one of those shops selling remaindered books.

I love these places. They are crammed with expensive hardbacks that no longer sell at a speed to justify their retention. I love the feel of a new book, the weight of it in the hand, the reluctance with which it opens to the next page that has never been read and the smell of the inked paper opened to the air for the first time.

I love that the big publishing houses measure the square footage of the warehouse space that they consume and the accountants do their bean counting and calculate the cost of the square footage of the footprint of the crates of books. Then, they end up in Caernarfon at a cost that I can easily afford.

I like, too, to see which books are languishing there with their dust covers in harsh primary colours to make them stand out on the shelves , now like tawdry street tarts desperately looking for a john in Manchester at lunchtime, when the bright daylight does them no favours. I love to see the ridiculous biographies of minor celebrities condemned to the cheapest of bins so that this final statement on their petty lives is all that remains of the champagne and canapés of the book’s ambitiously hopeful launch party.

Amongst the trash of the glossy cook books and poor romances of fevered yearning and a passion that fails to burn and lies flat and lifeless on the page, I sometimes find a Tom Wolfe, or a Douglas Coupland or a rare gem like the six hundred page collection of the letters of Ernest Hemingway.

The last time I went there, it was not with books with which I came away.

They had a shelf of DVDs for sale at just under three dollars each or four for nine dollars. I don’t normally buy recently released DVDs because they are ridiculously over priced in the UK and few are the ones that I want to see twice. Past experience has told me, also, that these cheap offers of discarded films are no great bargain either, being a hugely expensive waste of your life to view.

Yet one of them prominently displayed the name of the great Welsh actor Bob Hopkins. Another had Al Pacino in it, another of my favourites. I didn’t care how bad the movies might be, I will always watch these two exercising their craft.

Not looking at the titles or content I took them. There was nothing else worth having. So I added an early and probably very bad Nicole Kidman film because I am not immune to eye-candy, and a fishing masterclass filmed on the Norfolk Broads. These last two picks were pretty desperate but the lure of the price reduction on four always gets me, as God and the merchandising manager intended.

Well two months later, three of these films remain in their cellophane. Last night, however, I watched the Bob Hopkins film. The reason was, I noticed the title for the first time: “Then There were Giants”. It is an historical docudrama, recounting the fragile World War II alliance in which Hoskins plays the role of Churchill, Michael Caine that of Joseph Stalin and John Lithgow is a brilliant Franklin D Roosevelt.

Drawing on the actual cables between Washington, London and Moscow, the dialogue is interspersed with real footage of combat occurring in the war. It illustrates the controversies, the forceful personalities and the arguments of these heads of state as they tried to hold together the vital alliance to defeat a common enemy.

Each of these men was flawed and imperfect and none more so than Stalin. Yet each proved great leaders in fighting a huge and a terrifying war.

“Then there were Giants”, indeed. A great film, more than worth the two bucks paid for it.

When I come out of the theatre having seen a great play or out of the cinema having seen a good film, I am poor company. I am detached, introspective and resent the intrusion of a less bright world. Heaven help my companion if he or she starts to discuss what we have just seen and they do not have the empathy or sensitivity to understand its proper meaning.

After watching the movie, I made the mistake of coming on here. Cutting across the thoughts of what I had just viewed, and the effect on me of the power of great events being played out on the screen, was the need to contemplate John Bolton.

The reality that I had to face was the discussion about this nasty little man, this pigmy of an official. I read descriptions of his mean temper, of his petty revenges and his small mindedness. I read of how he despises the great institution that once carried our hopes for our poor world and which now lies shattered and broken under the boot of an ignorant power that allows no checks and balances to its craving for hegemony.

By the end of the night, I came to a perverse and startling conclusion.

Nominate this man, this pigmy amongst the giants of past world leaders whose mantle his minor ambassadorial role is supposed to touch. Rip him apart in congressional hearings. Let Barbara Boxer with unrelenting zeal identify his flaws and lies and dissembling. Display to the world his venal and grubby soul. Yet do not stop him being nominated by this President and by this administration.

I do not ever want again to see a Colin Powell, whom the world wanted to respect and trust, appear at the United Nations as your representative. I do not want to see a fine man, who came so close to being a great man, reduced to the poorest of hacks as he desperately tried to provide credibility to a President that has none.

Colin Powell did not change the direction of events in the Security Council. Nor will John Bolton, as the ambassador to it, change the inevitable course of where we are headed. This is a bit part in a sideshow, a charade for the people to believe whilst the determination of real policies takes place in a small room in the White House.

John Bolton is the truest, the most perfect representation of your country now. Let his presence be there on the television screens and in every newspaper. Let just not the world know the features on the face of this administration but let it be clear also to that blind, unseeing and uncaring majority in your country.

You will have to suffer so that more may know the truth about America now. Do so with resoluteness, content that John Bolton is a truth that must be shown. Then, maybe, the giants will emerge.

The Day IT Died

As I feel a serious diary acomin’. I thought I would spread a little joy first.

Over at New European Times , I have been having a bit of fun with something I haven’t heard before. I had assumed most geeks would have heard it but, as polydactyl  tells me that it was new to at least one IT person, I post it here as a delight to enjoy.

Based on Don MacLean’s “Bye Bye Miss American Pie”, it is a sung response by a Microsoft systems guy to an article in the Harvard Business Review entitled “IT doesn’t matter”. He says it is a retrospective for some years in the future. Don’t believe him. His lines:

“Gonna outsource every resource `til the business runs dry.”

and

“And as pink slips caused an exit flight
Of jobs to Bangalore’s new site
I saw Harvard laughing with delight
The day that I-T died”

are relevant right now, today.
As I can’t stream it directly, go to the video here and enjoy it.

By the end of the song, you may be liking this guy as much as I do. You will like him more if you read the last two posts in his personal blog

Hey, as an ex-governor of one of the world’s top three business schools, even I enjoyed the lines:

“The men that I admire the least
The MBA’s trained in the East”

Some of you Geeks are quite tolerable, aren’t you? Well, I reckon ol’ Pat Helland is a Geek’s Geek. I hope he plays golf, as well.

Alert of Further War

I will just record here my own serious concern about two developments in the Middle East.

Today’s NYT lead story reports:

Monday, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel urged President Bush to step up pressure on Iran to give up all elements of its nuclear program, according to senior American and Israeli officials

Mr. Sharon said Israeli intelligence showed Iran was near “a point of no return” in learning how to develop a weapon, the officials said. However, Mr. Sharon gave no indication thatIsraelwas preparing to act alone to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, a prospect that Vice President Dick Cheney, who was at the lunch, raised publicly three months ago

Nothing that is “revealed” that took place in such discussions is made known to us without purpose. I am concerned that the purpose is to forewarn the US public of further action – which, in six weeks time could have the support of the newly elected UK government.

The second item of concern is a report plucked off AP news:

On Tuesday, U.S. troops battled arms smugglers and fighters near the Iraqi town of Qaim along the Syrian border, killing an unknown number of foreign insurgents, the U.S. military said. Local hospital officials reported at least nine people killed in clashes in the same area, and said they believed the dead were civilians.

Insurgents opened fire when the U.S. troops began their raid on the smuggling ring Tuesday, and several militants, including at least one suicide bomber, were killed, the U.S. military said in a statement. No Americans were injured, it said.

Residents reported violent clashes before dawn Tuesday in and around Qaim, although it was unclear if the violence was related to the raid.

Hamid al-Alousi, director of Qaim hospital, said his facility had received nine corpses and nearly two dozen wounded in the violence. Residents of a small village just north of Qaim said more than a dozen more people were buried in the area and not taken to the hospital. Residents and hospital officials said the victims appeared to be civilians.

Clear evidence of the smuggling of arms across the Syrian border is an intolerable situation for the US military and shows a breakdown in any supposed agreement to secure this border that had been arrived at with the Syrian authorities.

Both these reports are indicative that joint American/Israeli action may soon commence.

The same AP report records the death of twelve Iraqi Guard in a roadside bomb.

Noticeable is that AP make a point about the non-availability of any confirmation regarding these happenings from US Military. Such military clampdowns on responding to press enquiries is a further worrying sign of intense military activity.

Breaking News: Top of the news stream on AP is the following report:

President Hamid Karzai said Wednesday he is preparing a formal request to President Bush for a long-term security partnership that could include a permanent U.S. military presence.

At a joint news conference with U.S. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Karzai said he had consulted many of his country’s citizens in recent weeks about “a strategic security relationship,” with the United States that could help Afghanistan avoid foreign interference and military conflicts.

“The conclusion we have drawn is that the Afghan people want a long-term relationship with the United States,” Karzai said. “They want this relationship to be a sustained economic and political relationship and most importantly of all, a strategic security relationship to enable Afghanistan defend itself, to continue to prosper, to stop the possibility of interferences in Afghanistan.”

This comes as no surprise despite persistent denials to the contrary in the past by the US Administration.

It is comforting to know that exactly the same announcement will be available for Iraq when the time comes without the need for any additional work, thus easing the burden on the hard-pressed US PR staff.

Meteor Blades

Most of us only get to know each other through our writing and opinions. Sometimes it gives us a stronger sense of knowing than many of those that we term our friends.

Meteor Blades is one of those that I have got to know over a few months for whom I feel great respect and friendship. I am sure that I am echoing what many of you share if I simply repost this notice of a difficult time that he is facing.

From ePluribus Media

We don’t know the specific details, but Meteor Blades’ wife and sister-in-law have been in a serious automobile accident.
Their injuries are challenging.  There were fatalities in the other car involved.

We know how much Meteor Blades means to this community, and we thought everyone might like  to send some good energy his way.

Please express your best wishes and love to him via comments to this diary and we will save it for him.  He can read it when he has the time and energy to focus.  Let’s keep his email box open for his family and the business of healing.  

SusanG and I will start.

Our hearts go out to you and your family, Meteor Blades.  We hope for a full recovery.  If there is anything we, as a community, can do to help you and your family, just let us know and it will be done.”

Because of the BBC, Today Was a Hard Day at the Office.

I am neither an economist spending my time drawing graphs on a chart nor am I dealer in oil futures. I am simply a businessman who works in an oil dependent industry – as all industry is oil dependent but mine particularly so.

What am I thinking and how am I reacting right now as an industrialist with oil prices steadily and irrevocably trending heavily upward?

You need to keep a cool head in assessing what is going to happen to your costs and sales revenue. You need to try and second guess the market place and keep the investment in capital, people and plant one step ahead of the economic cycle. You need to try and anticipate when the downturn may come and not react too quickly and not react too late.

Get it wrong and you can do immeasurable financial harm to your business and its shareholders. For this reason, no matter how well defined your planning process is, a great deal of decision making is based on short-termism.

Right now, I have called in my business development team and am refreshing my mind on the implications of the worst case scenario that they drew up six months ago. I am not doing so to take immediate action but to be ready to take action shortly.

The reason for my concern is a continuation of the bad news regarding oil. Today’s mid-day BBC report explains:

Oil prices have hit record highs on both sides of the Atlantic, despite building momentum behind an output increase from producer cartel Opec.

In London, Brent crude futures nudged over $57 a barrel, while US crude broke through the $58 mark.
Prices rose on concern over US refining capacity and earlier predictions that the price could eventually exceed $100.

Opec’s president said consultations had begun with its members on raising output by 500,000 barrels a day.

Indonesian oil minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said he had not been contacted yet, but would support the proposed increase.

Qatar and Kuwait have also said they would support an increase.

Nigeria’s presidential adviser on petroleum, Edmund Daukoru, thought a decision would be made in 10-14 days if prices stayed above $55.

The chance of a rise in supply had been left open at the last Opec meeting.

‘Super-spike’

“We had suspended [discussions] for a period of time because of the decline in prices,” Opec President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah said.

“But now the reality of prices requires that we once again undertake communications for the purpose of consultations with the fellow Opec oil ministers… pertaining to the 500,000 barrel per day hike.”

What is important to me is not the price. We knew about this some days ago, despite the short period when the price seemed to ease and this seemed to be reflected in the currency markets. Goldman Sachs told us on 2nd April that the spike in oil prices could go as high as $105 per barrel.

What has caught my attention today is the decision for Opec to finally meet again and review output. Some of the speed and urgency behind this meeting is shown by the open commitments already obtained to increase output by some of the smaller producers if Opec so agrees. I watch the increasing speed and rapidity of their meetings and it is like the whistle of an oncoming freight train as an alert of crisis ahead.

I need to know as an industrialist what could happen.
I call in my Business Development people.

These planners show me the scenarios produced by the UK Treasury forecasters and a summary of the combined product of some twelve to fourteen other forecasts, tweaked by my own people and modified for my industry and my own business. This is where my competitive advantage could come. I have some of the best planners available.

Of course, I have the London Business School forecast in the top drawer of my desk that I produce and talk to against their assessments. Not because it is necessarily better, but because I am familiar with it and it sets a base for me to interpret the mass of information being thrown at me.

I’m a bit of a wily old bird and I like my lessons from the past. It gives me an edge over these bright youngsters sitting round the table crunching these figures as we speak. What does the past tell me? This BBC report sums it up:

In the wake of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the Arab oil-producing countries (OPEC) imposed an embargo on supplies to the US on 20 October 1973.

For the wider world, oil prices went through the roof, from around $3 a barrel before the war to over $11 by early the following January.

The crisis led to a recession in 1975, the first of four world downturns where oil price increases caused by events in the Middle East played a key role.

It took one to two years for the recession from the oil crisis to really bite and when it came it was severe and damaging. My gut feel says this one will be faster in coming, longer lasting and greater in depth. The ability for governments and industry to react will be more difficult and the options fewer.

I know that I shall have to act. I need to do some stockpiling to hedge against scarce supplies in certain raw materials and other commodities albeit for a much reduced market demand. I need to put pressure on my sales force now to maximise what the faltering market has left to demand. I need to get production rates up but start reducing my inventory levels of finished stock. Overtime working will increase but new hires will fall or be frozen. It will be a ferocious few months. The irony is that this may seem like an upturn to my suppliers and employees but I will know it is only the mechanism for preparing for the recession that is coming.

I’m guessing I have nine months and that now is not too early to be responding to the crisis. First I need to test my gut feel. I want to call my senior colleagues together from across industry. We need a delegation to go to the ministry. We know they will want to convince us to maintain investment and productivity levels. Nothing creates a recession more than the fear of a recession. We want to know, however, what the Saudis are saying, what the diplomats are getting fed to them from China and what Defence and Intelligence is saying about current and future conflict in oil producing areas. It will be a series of difficult meetings. We don’t talk the same language, they are politicians and we are businessmen. We are not trained the same, we have different agendas. One thing all of us know, however, is that we must not get this dialogue wrong. It has happened too often in the past.

Monday, April 4, 2005 and the sun is shining outside and I wanted to get away early but from here on in I know I shall be stuck in late night meetings, quiet but intense one-to-one dinners and major conferences from now until August and then the real action will begin in September. I dismiss the planners and ask my secretary to have Louis bring the car round.

As I leave the building I look back at it and sigh. The last five years have been an excellent period of stable, managed growth in a stable and well managed economic climate. What every businessman wants. That is about to change. Managing that change is what my big salary, luxurious car and all the other benefits are about. I hope for as many of my employees as possible that I’m up to the task.

Good Morning! Its Monday, Bloody Monday!

Well it is Monday over here on this side of the Pond and should be over there with you by the time you get to read this.

SO COME ON! Shake yourself, stretch and take a careful look outside:

It’s the start of a new week! Exciting? Full of anticipation?

All last week’s goofs, gaffes, embarrassing incidents, cock-ups and just dumb stoopid things you did, you can now put behind you. It’s a bright, sunny, new start.

Don’t you just love cheery people first thing in the morning? Well maybe not; but I’m here to help. Really. I mean, you want a nice clean, new start, don’t you? You know..you want to forget the daft things you did over the last seven days. So, as I am sure it will help, tell us about what you did stupid last week. Or even last month. You know telling us will help you forget it. Cleanse the soul, eradicate the embarrassment. Go on, don’t be mean, tell us!. We promise we won’t laugh. Much.

After all:

You weren’t the BBC researcher who telephoned the Bob Marley Foundation saying they wished to spend one or two days filming the singer sometime this July or August. “But our schedule is flexible.” When did he die? Oh yes, 1981. You weren’t that dumb last week, were you?

You weren’t the gunman who pounced on a 32 year old woman walking her dog in San Diego and snatched the bag she was holding that contained the dog mess that she had just scooped up. You weren’t that idiotic last week, were you?

You weren’t Welshman last Thursday who, in front of each and every one of his so-called golf “buddies”, took a hurried short cut to his car across the wet grass of the very steep lawn, just before the game started. Then slipped, suddenly and mightily, and ended up with his feet up in the air and his body bouncing three times on its back as it crashed full length to the soggy ground. You weren’t that stupid in front of all your mates in the club house were you?

So come on, out with it. Start the week by confessing the last one.

We all make tiny errors of judgement:

We promise we won’t tell.

And, who knows, we might do the same diary to help you next week.

UK Election 05 – Diary 2

To help promote awareness of this series among EuroKossacks, please recommend Welshman’s Diary at dkos. BooMan

Welcome to the second of the UK election diary series. Welcome especially to those from Daily Kos who have made the trip across to give us your company and support in our efforts to bring you all that is bright, new and wonderful in an election campaign that will almost certainly be of enormous disinterest. Disinterest not to Americans but to the British. Apathy is the likely winner again in this election.

It has been a momentous week. The Prime Minister is not due to trigger the election by going to the Queen to seek the dissolution of Parliament until early next week (have a read of Lizzie’s enjoyable diary here if you need to look up what this means). Yet my own belief is that, by a series of acts of great stupidity, the election is now, if it wasn’t before, decided.

Markos, I have news for you. Whatever you find when you come over as the Guardian US observer in the last week of the election, expect to be disappointed. It came to an end, appropriately, in the seven days leading up to April’s Fool.


First some domestic issues. If you haven’t seen the announcement on Dkos, the move of this diary to Boomantribune is the beginning of what I hope will be a much more major initiative. Other diaries on what is happening in Europe will also be found here, including that by Jerome a Paris on the French referendum and a new one on the Italian election by Gilgamesh.

Secondly, I am joined again on this diary by Lizzie for the Labour Party and Edis for the Liberal Democrats. Still there is no Conservative party representative. You might well ask “why not?”.

You see, after last week’s diary, I got an email from the missing duck Peter Cuthbertson. It said “Just wanted to drop you a line saying I like the look of the diary so far, and to encourage you to send me all the questions you send others, at least until you find a full-time Tory voice. You never know: some of the answers may be other than “Bite me!”

So, biting back any feelings about his previous prevarication, I said “great” and asked him for a copy of the photo of him and ex-Prime Minister Maggie Thatcher for pre-publicity. Later I sent him two more emails.

I got no response. Again not a quack from the duck. So I set off in search for him in the best traditions of the Gannon enquiry.

I thought that I had found him here:

No, I thought, that can’t be him. So I looked and looked and finally came up with that famous picture on an obscure site on the internet:

Cuthbertson I believe is the one on the left. The one on the right is Maggie.

Hang on, I thought. I need another look at the first picture:

Could these two people be the same? All the material has been passed over to the Gannon/Guckert enquiry team to investigate. My only fear is that in the unlikely event that Cuthbertson is found to have sites with the type of naked self-portraits that Jeff Gannon had, the images – judging by the only one we have -will be a lot less pleasing for those who might otherwise be of a persuasion to enjoy such things.

Meanwhile. we are without a Tory representative. Fear not. Instead of the apparently athletically challenged and unreliable Mr Cuthbertson, there is a hint that the delectable Chloe may join us. More on this as the story unfolds.

And so we come to this week’s headline:

TORY PARTY TAKES FLIGHT BEFORE ELECTION IS ANNOUNCED

The story is all about one Mr Flight, Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party.

You, as an American, will have never heard of him. Relax. I assure you that 99.9999999999% of British had not heard of him either.

The landslide defeats experienced by the Conservatives in recent years have been due to the electorate not trusting them. I know this will be hard to understand from a people who elect Tony Blair as their Prime Minister, but I promise you it is true. Least of all, do they not trust the Conservatives to safeguard our public services and our National Health Service in particular.

Michael Howard, Conservative Leader, has worked hard like his predecessors to reassure us about this point. I believe that some progress was being made. His big election platform was that, despite intending to make some small cuts in Income Tax, the Conservatives would be able to achieve this by certain specified savings in public services that would in no way reduce their effectiveness.

Except onto the scene comes Mr Flight, a key contributor to the public services savings policy. At a private meeting of some Conservative backers, he explained that the savings proposed in their election manifesto involving a £35bn target for lower spending would “be the start” of more radical cuts in the public sector. The hapless Mr Flight declared that the Tories have a secret agenda but, he explained, first it had to gain power. Ah, the spirit of the neocons lives on in the garden suburbs of Merrie England.

The trouble is that some socially minded, or socialist minded, fellow had a tape recorder. He leaked the speech to the Times. The foul, slime-besmirched cheat! Or not, depending on who you believe was the greater threat to truth in politics.

There are many ways Michael Howard could have dealt with the matter. After all, it happened at the last election and the goon of a Conservative was simply hidden away, literally, for the rest of the election campaign. He could have bluffed it out and merely said that it was a proper statement that even greater savings could be made than those proposed, without diminishing the services to the public, but they were being cautious in the manifesto. I might have been sympathetic to that argument.

Instead, Michael Howard wanted to show he was tough. He sacked poor Mr Flight from the Deputy Chairmanship. Then, to show he was even tougher, a few hours later he had him de-selected from his constituency. Mr Flight has declared that he will not go easily or quietly.

I do not know which of the many political gurus were advising Howard, but they are a bunch of lame idiots. No one needed to prove Mr Michael “something of the night about him” Howard was ruthless. It impressed not one voter. Regardless of the sense behind some of Mr Flight’s comments, all the great British public will remember is that the Conservatives have a secret plan to cut their beloved public services according to their own man and he must be right because Michael Howard sacked him!

Remember the cheery duck I put forward as Conservative Party spokesman last week. Well, I have to bring you a very distressing picture of him:

Sadly I have to report that this poor thing, in which were held all the hopes of a Conservative Party come back at this election, is a Monty Python of a dead duck.

This parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! ‘E’s expired and gone to meet ‘is maker!“E’s a stiff! Bereft of life, ‘e rests in peace! If you hadn’t nailed ‘im to the perch ‘e’d be pushing up the daisies! ‘Is metabolic processes are now ‘istory! ‘E’s off the twig! ‘E’s kicked the bucket, ‘e’s shuffled off ‘is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisibile!! THIS IS AN EX-DUCK!!

So now for what our two commentators have to say about the week. I first asked them what their parties had been highlighting as new policies. Edis for the Liberal Democrats responded:

Firstly Iraq and the Libdems pressed Blair hard on the legal justification for war. Demanded publication of the Attorney-Generals advice.

Secondly Tory spending plans. The Libdem Treasury team was already highlighting the inadequacies of the official ‘James Committee’ Tory calculations on ‘spending cuts’ before the Howard Flight clog-dance raised questions of a hidden agenda..

Charles Kennedy, the Liberal Democrat leader, outlined campaign themes to MPs. There are no ‘No-Go areas’ for the Liberal Democrats, who are the real opposition to Labour.

Several Libdem mini-Manifesto’s launched. :

1 On the family. Themes: We are no longer a nation that has one universal family structure. But all families share common concerns. Manifesto lays out policies on giving children a good start in life, balancing home and work needs, strengthening financial security of family arrangements. Includes a pledge to support same-sex civic unions as one means of strengthening families.

2 On the Environment Tough measures on Global warming needed. Sets out measures for cleaner transport and power.

3 On disabled peoples’ rights. Stress on promoting Independent Living, removing barriers to public and political participation, helping people have greater control over their own lives.

4 For Ethnic Minorities. Equal protection against racist attacks masquerading as religious comment. Human-rights based asylum and economic migration system set out.

Strangely, Lizzie did not respond to this question at all. Poor dear, I understand her difficulties. The Labour Party is largely re-cycling what it has already announced and has very little new to say that was not already said in its “safe” but lack lustre pre-election statement.

The great shame is that there is no Conservative here to explain their party’s new initiatives. Some of these, such as for the elderly, are very attractive. The absence of comment from them here, however, is perhaps a useful indicator of their impact on the British public. However much they may have had election appeal, the whole debacle over Mr Flight’s comments on public services have completely over shadowed them. If any Tory reading this doesn’t believe me, then read these extracts, many from their own people and newspapers, which shows the devastating effect of the last week.

The even greater shame is that all this occurred just as the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives were making some headway in embarrassing Tony Blair by his refusal to make known his Attorney General’s advice on the legality of war in Iraq. Teflon Tony slips through the net again.

And so to the question of what our commentators made of the week, including their take on Mr Flight. First Lizzie for the Labour Party:

The great thing about a UK election these days, is that it doesn’t really matter how Labour conducts its campaign, as the Tories are bound to hang themselves, given enough rope. This week, the death of Lord Callaghan, the last Labour Prime Minister, might have cast a shadow, by reminding voters of his disastrous leadership, the one that ensured Thatcher and her miserable successor their long and unpopular run in government. However, the papers were even nice about Callaghan, and reminded me, for one, that Callaghan was responsible for finally getting rid of the death penalty.

So it would have been a good week anyway, with a nice budget and all, even if it hadn’t been for the hilarious antics of the Tories. During the Thatcher years, Labour’s problem was convincing the voters it was “safe” to vote Labour. Many were deeply in debt, having bought council houses (low-rent houses built by the post-war Labour government) at the height of a housing boom that had gone bust. But they trusted Labour even less with the economy. Better the devil you know….

Now, the tables are turned. The economy is stable, much more so than it was under the Tories. So why should anyone vote Tory again? Well, the National Health Service isn’t a lot better – but it’s better than it was under the Tories. Schools are still underfunded – but primary schools are getting palpably better. Public transport is still dire – but better than under the Tories when the town centres were full of competing bus companies running half empty buses, with not a bus for hours out on the estates. And the streets are cleaner, and there’s some fun Millenium stuff around, like the London Eye. Yes, Blair went to war in Iraq – but the Tories voted for that war, and in any case, Tories like war, don’t they? So the only reason to vote Tory is if you want tax cuts. And you only want tax-cuts as long as there won’t be cuts to public spending.
So the Tories have come up with a neat promise – more for less. Limited tax cuts without spending cuts. It’s all supposed to come out of “efficiencies” (i.e. axing the few programs that have made Blair’s government genuinely progressive). The idea, I think, is to make disgruntled ex-Blair voters feel better about parking their protest vote back with the Tories.

The problem with this strategy for the Tories is that it’s not enough for their base. They want red meat. So, in a “private” meeting of select Thatcherite Tories, Howard Flight, a conservative MP, is asked by a questioner whether a Tory government “could go further” once in office. Flight replies: “Whatever the fine principles, you have to win an election first.” Adds that the plans have been “if you like, ‘sieved’ for what is politically acceptable”. And a mole catches him on tape.

At which point all Labour needs to do is to order the popcorn. Tory polls slump. Howard sacks Flight as a shadow minister, and withdraws the Tory whip, so he can no longer stand as Tory candidate for his constituency. Lord Tebbit, arch-Thatcherite, accuses Howard of opting for the “nuclear response”. Flight seeks legal advice. His constituency likes him. Dammit the Tories like him – he’s offering them what they want. Trouble is, there aren’t enough of them to vote in a Tory government on anything as, well, Tory, as a slash and burn tax-cut program.
Labour ends the week 12 points ahead.

And now for Edis on behalf of the Liberal Democrats:

Iraq is clearly tunnelling away like an old mole under the Labour Party. It won’t go away. I hear that Labour candidates are being offered different versions of election leaflet artwork, one set omitting all pictures of the Prime Minister for those who don’t want to be associated with him in the public mind.. And several are going openly to repudiate government policy on the Iraq war in their election addresses.

Apparently they won’t be sacked as candidates, unlike Howard Flight, the Tory in Arundel who embarrassed his leader so by letting economic cats out of bags. Remarkably he is not the first Tory candidate to be compulsorily stood down. In fact in Slough they are on their second enforced de-selection in two months.

One because the candidate turned out to be a Gun-Fetishist straight out of US boondocks nightmares, and his successor because he believes the European union is a Catholic plot to corrupt Britain. While I sympathise with Mr Howard’s desire not to be seen in the same coffin as these characters, the Tory habit of removing dissenting voices is actually quite worrying in terms of constitutional practice in Britain. MPs should be able to debate with their parties and leadership, they are not nominated afterthoughts of the Caudillo. More though on this later.

In the polls, as Lizzie notes, there has been some marked improvement for the Labour Party. My favourite poll of polls interpreter, UK Elect shows some small internal adjustment of their own previous figures in favour of the Tories but still indicates a massive loss for them. It also shows the loss of the seat of a key Tory Minister, David Davies, to the Liberal Democrats.

So that was the week that was. Except for one thing that I forgot to mention. I keep calling the Conservatives “Tories”. Well, it appears that I shouldn’t. The party’s head of broadcasting, Michael Salter, has written to television channels urging them stop using the label. “It will be Conservative candidates people are voting for and they will be Conservative policies rather than Tory,” said Mr Salter. This sad plea, throwing out two centuries of tradition, is the latest in a series of attempts by the party to shed its unpopular Thatcherite image and rebrand itself as a centrist political force representative of modern Britain. Like the compassionate face of George Bush, the possibility of it being recognised by the electorate exists only in the unreality of the minds of his closest staff.

If you missed last week’s diary, it is here. And my forecast for the next stage of the campaign? Expect this election to get very dirty – I can see little benefit in the Tories now holding back after the damage done to them this week. Iraq may be featured more strongly. The people to gain from such tactics are the Liberal Democrats.

Rants, Reporting and Blogging

[promoted by BooMan. Window, schmindow.]

I have been thinking recently about the future of blogging. I only became involved in it as an activity in the middle of last year.  It is still new enough for it to hold fascination for me as an exciting means of communication.

It was a key time to become involved. Howard Dean had just shown how the blogs were an untapped source of instant communication that could be powerfully utilised to advance causes. The subsequent presidential campaign showed how it could invigorate the grass roots of a political party, becoming a powerful daily reinforcement of both message and morale. It helped turn people into party activists, it raised money for candidates and it helped get the vote out.

Suddenly, the other media outlets sat up and began to take notice. Something powerful and unpredictable had been unleashed that challenged the established order of previous forms of communication.

Exciting times, indeed.

:::Read More:::
After the election of George Bush, a change occurred, if not in blogging itself, then in my reaction to it.

At first it was comforting to mourn a devastating result in the company of others of like mind. There is an inexplicable strength to be derived from a huge mass hug across the internet. Equally enjoyable was to share in the enormous rant as Bush began to spend the political capital he claimed to have acquired.

What a huge rant it was, like a great roar of anger and disbelief across the cybernet. What a great release was to be had from being a part of it all.

The problem lay in the fact that this rant kept going on. And on. And on. The spring sunshine came to the Welsh hills just in time to avoid an all-pervasive gloom settling over the whole of this area. I began to believe that my daily switching on of my computer was creating a portal that allowed the black mist of the outrage and loathing being expressed on the blogs across the world to escape into the atmosphere of this part of Wales.

Is this then, the end point for our experiment in blogging? I think not and I was glad to read today that Booman does not think so either. In his introduction to the magnificent diary by Susan Gardner and Todd Johnston on the Guckert/Gannon affair, he wrote:

“This is the prototype of what Frog-Marching will become. Professional reporting done after a collaborative, online, open-source investigation.”

If he is right, then we will be witnessing the next generation of blogging. It will have grown up and become a source in its own right.

There is a limitation to something that simply takes extracts from the conventional media and then passes comments, like the old colonel over the breakfast table at his suffering wife, as he manages to smear more marmalade on the copy of his Times than on the toast that he has just buttered. This is not reporting. It is at worst indulgent bar room talk with expletives and at best a fairly erudite exposition of second-hand facts.

What Susan, Todd and the rest of their team did was to read between the lines, to go out there and explore and fill in the blank spaces and reveal a new truth and meaning. They extended our understanding of what we were seeing and exposed some new facts. Great work and rightly praised by Booman.

Hang on, there, I can hear you say. We can’t all be on-line reporters unearthing information with the passion, dedication and commitment shown by Susan and Todd. Of course not. Yet it has been your reporting in the past that first got me addicted to coming on these sites. So let me explain what this special reporting of yours has been and which I hope will become as much a part of blogging as the type shown by the Gannon/Guckert team.

It was not the rants or the opinions or being the first to announce breathlessly in a diary the breaking news on the AP wire that made blogging seem such an exiting new source of information. It was the straight forward telling by you as an individual of your experience whilst out campaigning for Kerry, of what happened at the rally, of how you organised yourself, your kids, your meals in helping to get out the vote and the conversation in the shopping mall that brought home to you how other people were feeling.

This to me is as much a part of the future of blogging that Booman envisions as any other sort of reporting. It is not simply commenting on the major proceedings of the world or the much less desirable commenting on the conventional media’s commenting on these events. It is reporting on how these happenings and enactments impact on you, your families and friends, on your work and your community that will give real impact to blogging in the future. This is true, honest reporting and it is of a type that the talking heads on CNN either ignore or at best give a twenty second exposure whilst covering it with a layer of smart opinion.

You will all have your memories of the great posts made by our friends on here that moved you or increased your understanding because they were a simple account of something that happened to that person.  For me, one these will be an email that Edis Beavan (Saugatojas on here) sent to me today that was at once profoundly disturbing because it described what war can do to people and, at same time, uplifting and hopeful because it showed how some can rise even above such awful circumstances. I will give an extract:

An aside in another blog – and I can’t find the link now- got me thinking about what we need to do to uphold our better traditions.

It referred to the Abu Ghraib and torture scandals now afflicting us and quoted a German Newspaper from 1946 editorialising in wonder at the prosecution of British occupation troops for abusing German prisoners. This prosecution and the positive shock it gave to Germans played a real and significant part n the re-thinking of Germany, and so of all Europe.

I wonder if this is a report on something my Dad did?

He told me that some months after the war ended he came across a camp which seemed to have no guards at the gates or perimeters . He went into the camp and found German military prisoners crawling around in a state of collapse. In the guardroom were British troops. He asked the officer what was happening and why were there no guards. “They don’t have the strength to escape’ said the officer ‘we don’t feed them’.

My dad had them all arrested and they were tried and convicted. I wonder if that was the incident reported in the newspapers.

My dad was not an angel, but he was a man of integrity and what he did was an expression of our better human responses in bad times, and an example of the best patriotic instincts of the indefinable British.

When our government now apparently condones torture and mistreatment of prisoners they betray my Dad’s memory, and the honour and integrity of so many who have given rather a lot for this country. And deny some of the better things this country has done to set aside less admirable moments. I despise the British Government that weasels its way to this act of betrayal.

Now this is reporting, reporting that has more meaning for me than anything that I read in the New York Times or the Guardian today. I hope that this is an increasing part of the future of blogging.

One of the great realisations in teaching has been that history is not just about the great events of Kings and Queens but about the lives of ordinary people and how they were lived and how they struggled and how they survived. When historians come to the internet archives to mine for information on the reality of today, it is in the accounts of your lives that you post on here that will grab their attention, not the outraged diary about last night’s Fox News item. You can all become reporters on Boomantribune in tomorrow’s grown up blog.

(I started out to write my first front page diary that Booman kindly said that I could do but the subject I wanted to speak about did not seem right, the message too complex, and the diary too long, and the writing too dense. I missed my 3-4 p.m. GMT time slot. So I guess I may never have a front page diary, but am happy enough if someone gets to read it here. It seems like a familiar home and where I really belong!)