After Mitt Romney lost badly in the 2012 presidential election, the Republican National Committee decided to sit down and do some soul-searching and some research. The result was a lengthy paper called the Growth and Opportunity Project. More than anything, it was an attempt to explain why the party had lost the most recent election and to offer some corrective actions that would enable the party to stop making the same mistakes. Right from the beginning, in the introduction, the authors were blunt about where the party stood and how they were faring with the youth and minority constituencies.
Public perception of the Party is at record lows. Young voters are increasingly rolling their eyes at what the Party represents, and many minorities wrongly think that Republicans do not like them or want them in the country. When someone rolls their eyes at us, they are not likely to open their ears to us.
Of course, now comes the collective freak out about Mexican immigrants and a party front-runner in Donald Trump who explicitly says that he doesn’t want Mexicans in this country.
The report was also unsparing about the lack of fresh ideas coming out of the conservative movement.
At our core, Republicans have comfortably remained the Party of Reagan without figuring out what comes next. Ronald Reagan is a Republican hero and role model who was first elected 33 years ago— meaning no one under the age of 51 today was old enough to vote for Reagan when he first ran for President. Our Party knows how to appeal to older voters, but we have lost our way with younger ones. We sound increasingly out of touch.
As Mike Gerson and Pete Wehner wrote recently, “It is no wonder that Republican policies can seem stale; they are very nearly identical to those offered up by the Party more than 30 years ago. For Republicans to design an agenda that applies to the conditions of 1980 is as if Ronald Reagan designed his agenda for conditions that existed in the Truman years.”
They seemed out of touch so they decided to go on a Benghazi witchhunt for the next three years, obsess over gay marriage cakes, attack Obamacare with an endless stream of hopeless legal cases, and make Mexicans their top priority domestic agenda item. This was supposed to resonate with the youth vote in what way?
The Republican Party needs to stop talking to itself. We have become expert in how to provide ideological reinforcement to like-minded people, but devastatingly we have lost the ability to be persuasive with, or welcoming to, those who do not agree with us on every issue.
Instead of driving around in circles on an ideological cul-de-sac, we need a Party whose brand of conservatism invites and inspires new people to visit us. We need to remain America’s conservative alternative to big-government, redistribution-to-extremes liberalism, while building a route into our Party that a non-traditional Republican will want to travel. Our standard should not be universal purity; it should be a more welcoming conservatism.
At least in some senses, although not the intended ones, Donald Trump satisfies these requirements. Trump is persuasive to a lot of people who either have given up on the Republican Party or never were engaged in politics much in the first place. So, he is inviting and inspiring to some “new” people, some of whom are “non-traditional Republicans” and some of whom are undoubtedly part of the youth vote.
But it’s kind of like Trump drove his bus right into the ideological cul-de-sac, set up a party tent in the circle, and began a block party. The right isn’t driving around in circles anymore because they either joined the party or are too busy gawking at the party to operate a motor vehicle.
Another way of looking at it is that the right has been moving with a basic hive-mentality for a long while, with individual members moving as directed by orchestrators who control their media platforms. The guys operating the Wurlitzer move them from William Ayers to Saul Alinsky to Solyndra to Fast & Furious to Benghazi! to Hillary’s email account at the State Department. The effect is so powerful that the whole right was converted to global climate science denialism within a matter of weeks once the organ grinders began that tune. Only weeks before they had had no problem with a carbon tax proposed by their candidates John McCain and Sarah Palin. But, today, they’re all convinced that scientists are perpetrating some kind of left-wing hoax on them.
There’s great power in being able to move public opinion like this, and the left has nothing like it. But Trump has interfered with the smooth operation of this mechanism of control. As long as he’s holding this block party, the people are too distracted to get their marching orders. They stop driving thoughtlessly around the ideological cul-de-sac.
The problem is, they still aren’t reaching anyone who doesn’t live on this block.
A recent example of this happened during the first Republican debates. The debates, you’ll remember, were broken in two to accommodate the eleventy billion people who wanted to appear in them. The first debate, also known as the Kiddie Table debate, featured former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. She did a passable job and certainly didn’t embarrass herself, but she didn’t exactly stick out from the crowd, either. Nonetheless, prior to the main event, the moderators, including the soon-to-be-much-more-famous Megyn Kelly, declared Fiorina as the clear winner of the first debate. This analysis, which seemed inappropriate from people who were about to moderate the second debate, was echoed by many talking head analysts on the network, and also spread widely though social media. It was obvious that they had their marching orders from the organ grinders in the corporate offices.
But, while Fiorina certainly enjoyed a bump, the effect was really rather muted.
Likewise, Fox arranged to have Frank Luntz do a focus group after the second debate which was carefully selected to provide a sample that would express their disappointment in Donald Trump’s performance. Thus, Fox was prepared to hype Fiorina and pan Trump before the debates even occurred, and that’s what they did.
How has it worked out?
The answer is that it hasn’t worked out nearly as well as their effort to turn people against climate science or to get them obsessed about Henry Louis Gates or in-person voter fraud.
But this isn’t really Trump’s fault. First, they didn’t play the correct tunes on the Wurlitzer. The RNC report said the following:
If Hispanic Americans perceive that a GOP nominee or candidate does not want them in the United States (i.e. self-deportation), they will not pay attention to our next sentence. It does not matter what we say about education, jobs or the economy; if Hispanics think we do not want them here, they will close their ears to our policies. In the last election, Governor Romney received just 27 percent of the Hispanic vote. Other minority communities, including Asian and Pacific Islander Americans, also view the Party as unwelcoming. President Bush got 44 percent of the Asian vote in 2004; our presidential nominee received only 26 percent in 2012.
As one conservative, Tea-Party leader, Dick Armey, told us, “You can’t call someone ugly and expect them to go to the prom with you. We’ve chased the Hispanic voter out of his natural home.”
We are not a policy committee, but among the steps Republicans take in the Hispanic community and beyond, we must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform. If we do not, our Party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only. We also believe that comprehensive immigration reform is consistent with Republican economic policies that promote job growth and opportunity for all.
The Republicans initially took this advice to heart and the Senate Republicans didn’t stand in the way of passing a comprehensive immigration reform bill in 2013. In fact, more than a dozen Republican senators voted for the bill, giving it a good deal of bipartisan support. House Republicans, however, wanted nothing to do with the bill and let it die.
Among the candidates for president who supported immigration reform, including chiefly Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, they now believe that it’s a total political loser for them and that Trump’s position is too strong to really challenge.
And Trump is going beyond self-deportation to actually talking about forcible deportation. And tonight he had Jorge Ramos (the Walter Cronkite of Spanish-language news) forcibly deported from his press conference in Iowa.
While Trump did invite Ramos back and attempted to answer his questions, the damage was done.
The thing is, this is only going to make Trump more popular with the Republican Party base. And that’s because the party base wants no part of the RNC’s advice on how to win a majority of the Electoral College votes.
For example:
Younger voters are increasingly put off by the GOP. A post-election survey of voters ages 18-29 in the battleground states of Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Colorado found that Republicans have an almost 1:2 favorable/unfavorable rating. Democrats have an almost 2:1 favorable rating.
For the GOP to appeal to younger voters, we do not have to agree on every issue, but we do need to make sure young people do not see the Party as totally intolerant of alternative points of view.
Already, there is a generational difference within the conservative movement about issues involving the treatment and the rights of gays — and for many younger voters, these issues are a gateway into whether the Party is a place they want to be.
If our Party is not welcoming and inclusive, young people and increasingly other voters will continue to tune us out.
In a future post, I may look at the other recommendations made in this report to see how they’re working out, but for tonight I am focused on these introductory ideas.
Mainly, the party should pass immigration reform, become gay-neutral to gay-friendly, and do aggressive outreach to minority communities while working hard to tamp down any signs of “intolerance” for certain groups or points of view.
These weren’t recommended as ideologically superior positions to take. They were recommended as absolute prerequisites for getting a fair hearing to discuss their ideology at all. If they didn’t do these things, the prediction was that so many people would tune them out that they’d never even get the chance to make an argument on the merits of their economic or foreign policy ideas.
But the party didn’t just reject this advice, they rejected it with extreme prejudice. And the media outlets that might have tried to move the hive towards tolerance did not pursue that path, or did so with too little conviction and too much conflicting information.
On gay marriage, it got so bad that corporate America had to step in and tell them that they wouldn’t do business in states that discriminated against gays. On deportation, they didn’t pass reform and then made Mexicans one of their top problems to discuss in the campaign. On seeming tolerant, they’ve failed more miserably than ever.
Somehow, though, this was all supposed to turn on a dime when the presidential election started. All this hate and resentment and bigotry was supposed to just get turned off and Jeb Bush would waltz in with his sunny Reaganesque nobility and his love of amnesty and Common Core and his Mexican wife and family and his brother’s record of conservative betrayals, and the hive would settle down and get back driving around that ideological cul-de-sac like good little stormtroopers.
But these aren’t good little stormtroopers. These are genuine ruffians. And they’re having a block party and they’ve got their own music provided by Donald Trump.
And, because they’ve got their own music now, they’re going off the conservative script. They don’t give a damn that Donald Trump disagrees with them about Planned Parenthood and once called for single-payer health care. They don’t care about any of his heresies because they’re not getting that Queen Bee’s instructions anymore.
They’ve got a new Queen Bee.
Now, maybe the organ grinders can pull this all together and get Bush over the finish line, but it sure isn’t looking too promising right now.
“Ronald Reagan designed his agenda”
They’re just never going to let go of that fantasy, are they?
Well they could hardly say, “The racist, bigoted, know-nothing George Wallace designed our agenda.”
Even though he did. And brought together the coalition that was the basis for the GOP’s Southern Strategy.
The wikipedia article on the Wallace 1968 campaign is fascinating reading. Basically lays out the political history of the US for the rest of the 20th century.
Right; good point. Of course it’s Wallace (and Goldwater, and Atwater, etc.) That’s 100% correct.
I’m just referring to the more basic problem, which is that a distressingly high number of people look at Ronald Reagan and see some kind of visionary policy mastermind, rather than the transparently empty-suit puppet he actually was.
I remember those years very well. He was stupid, and profoundly unpopular. (He never got above 50%, while Clinton never got below.) I just don’t understand this conservative capacity for self-delusion.
I mean, it’d be one thing if low-information voters, impressionable types etc. believed this. But (as we see here) it’s the people in the think tanks who remember Reagan as a creator of policy.
“I just don’t understand this conservative capacity for self-delusion.”
What else do they have?
They have God on their side.
A more 21st century comparison would be Putin. Like Putin I think The Donald only likes a muslim he can do business with (Iran). Like Putin he would do everything short of dropping the A bomb on the other ones. Or The Donald may let the Hawks into the middle east like Putin let his into Ukraine. Do any of you not think if The Donald were president, the Univision reporter would still be sitting in jail somewhere?
Way off re Vlad. Looks like you’ve swallowed a lot of one-sided anti-Putin US MSM propaganda. He’s a whip-smart very rational actor. The Ukraine happens to be in Russia’s backyard and the two countries have long ethnic economic and political ties. Reversing the situation, if Russia/Putin had tried to make aggressive political and military moves in either Canada or Mexico, to the point of instigating a coup to install a more pro-Putin leader there, our govt would be going nuts. Putin has by contrast shown rather patient restraint.
No, the better Trump comparison is still George Wallace, at least in terms of how they campaign and use race/immigration negatively for positive personal political gain. At least Donald doesn’t have a long track record (other than birtherism in recent years) of outright racism.
So like others I wonder if a lot of this isn’t just to rustle himself up some good positioning in a party where he doesn’t have much deep history. I think that accounts for 75% of it. With George Corley, the racist sentiments were more sincere though not entirely without the political expediency component. As, e.g., his losing 1958 race vs the more overtly racist successful campaign he won in 1962.
The last time the GOP campaigned truthfully on what they really believed was 1964 – they learned never to do that again…
Yes, Trump took on the Wurlitzer and won. He’s the first to do so and I must say I’m astounded. No one saw this coming. We all thought the guy was a joke candidate who shouldn’t even bother to run. Finally, at long last, the shitheads who play in that shit pile otherwise known as the Republican party are reaping the whirlwind. I’m so glad I’ve lived long enough to see it. Now let’s see if they can co-opt his message. It’s hard to envision. That said, I’m still firmly convinced there’s no way Trump can win the general election. Too many young, educated and minority voters who aren’t part of that world.
He’s the first guy in a long, long, time who is giving the GOP base what they want: hate and bile against The Other.
The handwriting was walled with the Tea Party’s arrival.
But the Tea Party didn’t “arrive”; it was a deliberate, orchestrated, top-down creation.
That’s what’s so fascinating about this. It was a deliberate “re-branding” that’s now gone wildly astray.
This! I believe the Tea Party plan was the gate that opened up the party to disaster. The Republicans were desperate for a momentum change and saw a few outspoken radicals who had pushed their agenda in different states. Pretty soon the Teabaggers were in full swing and then they started overrunning and outpacing the party. Boehner certainly couldn’t very well stop them.
Trump is the same sort of game changer. And the Republicans love the attention and the excitement, but like the Frankenstein monster Tea Party, Ol Donald’s gonna keep throwing his creators out of the castle. Now they’re sweating and biting their nails because they don’t have enough pitchforks to put him down. He’s going to stumble and fall at some point, but it will be his own failing, not the party leaders.
Well they crushed their enemies in the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014 and the states in 2010-present so it seems to be working out just fine for them.
I will add that I really don’t like Ramos, so reading about that was pretty funny to me.
As I stated before, Donald Trump is quite similar to Geert Wilders in Dutch politics.
What we are witnessing is destruction of the Republican Party from within, a natural phase before renewal. The 50+ generation of candidates running for the GOP will fail to connect with the current multicultural populace. The younger generation will turn-away from the GOP until the party has changed from the bottom up.
Donald Trump is the Great Destructor, bulldozing his way to the top of the polls … other candidates can’t handle his rise, Jeb Bush included who is running second in the polls. If Trump fails in the GOP he will run as an Independent.
Great advantage, all the TV viewers watching the implosion of the GOP to not get a debate about policy and little about attacking the Democrats. The GOP cleansing continues until the primary voting gets underway.
In a monte carlo simulation based on state polling, Bush beats Clinton 29% of the time. Rubio does better
I see no evidence if the GOP nominee is not name Trump that the Democrats are not in real trouble in 2016.
Hence, I think, the fascination on the left with Trump.
It is a form of denial.
70-30 are pretty good preliminary odds.
And a lot of things have to go well for Bush or Rubio to even get the chance at a 30% shot.
Yeah, like the Fed Reserve going on a rate-hiking spree as Greenspan did in 2000 to put paid to Al Gore’s chances. The economy was naturally slowing at the end of 1999 as everybody ultimately learned and Greenspan then jerked the rates up sharply during the spring and summer because of “inflation,” which never occurred and wasn’t going to occur. Between controlling the media, the banks and the ability to gerrymander for better positioning, it’s a wonder the Republicans never lose.
OT:
Really, Morning Joe?
Really?
Jorge Ramos is enjoying “15 Minutes” because of Rat on Top of Head Man?
MOFO, please.
Jorge Ramos has more viewers in one night than you get in 2 months.
Get Da Phuq Outta Here.
Only Squint can interject himself into the conversation this way.
This is what folks have been saying…..you built this…you own this..
…………
Fox News battles Donald Trump monster it helped create
Rachel Maddow reports on the re-ignited feud between Donald Trump and Fox News and points out the long, intertwined history the two share, and noting that their shared use of ratings as an argument-ender makes them equally, absurdly matched.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/fox-news-battles-monster-it-helped-create-513068099606
Trump is the Ilkhanate, banging on the gates of Baghdad. Us Democrats are nervously watching from the Syrian border.
The cupboard is bare. Has been for many elections. They can win local and state elections based on resentment and prejudice, but they can’t articulate any coherent national agenda on that basis. GWB’s election was a rube-goldberg hail-mary based on convincing the base that he was red meat Reagan-Jesus and the rest of the country that he was a vanilla “compassionate” conservative with a presidential pedigree. GWB was a catastrophic president but electorally he was something of a unicorn, and it’s very hard to see how the party could pull of such a stupendous finesse move again, especially with Jeb!. It increasingly looks like Trump has, for at least four or five years, been carefully considering the chance to run as an opportunistic demagogue flourishing in the rotting corpse of the GOP apparatus, and however crazy his substance may be, his understanding of the dynamics of the party and it’s supporters appears to be right on the money.
In my current job I spend most weeks in the Silicon Valley at my client’s site. 85% of the workers in their office are from India – very high even by Valley standards.
I mention this because the recent Trump developments have really upset the Indian community. This is a minority which has favored the GOP more than most others. I’ve guessed that fact is because a) India itself has a very weak social infrastructure, b) Indian society is a lot like what the GOP envisions – highly competitive, dog-eat-dog, with a very, very few extremely wealthy winners and a plethora of losers in poverty, c) those who migrate to America see themselves as the winners, and by the standards they are used to that is accurate.
Meanwhile, the Indian community tends to locate in places like Silicon Valley where they are insulated from the bare knuckles racism of red state America.
Until Trump. Now they are seeing raw white power nationalism and how it’s resonating with GOP voters. People don’t talk politics at work – but lately Trump has been a hot topic, and everyone is concerned.
I don’t know what percent of the Indians you work with are Muslim, but based on basic family values type of issues, Muslims are much more conservative than other immigrant populations. They are also overrepresented in the operation of small businesses. They are a natural constituency for conservative ideology on the family and on economics. But they generally don’t vote for Republicans because Republicans so obviously despise them.
The non-Muslim Indians are probably realizing more than ever that they, too, are despised because they don’t belong to the only important club.
Latino conservatism has been overhyped by Republicans, but it also exists and in numbers much larger than the black community. But they too have concluded that they are despised.
So, the GOP has really made a decision to alienate a lot of voters, and what happens after a while is that a group that joins the Dems for reasons of identity slowly assimilates to their views on other subjects, including human sexuality and economic justice. So, these voters won’t necessarily be available later, or as available as they should have been.
“Go back to Univision” doesn’t even make sense. I assume Ramos was covering Trump for Univision.
Which means that the exchange will have appeared on Univision by now, probably numerous times, and every single person watching Univision is getting Trump’s message loud and clear: Drop dead.
Something to keep in mind when they try to tell you it isn’t about bigotry. What does telling Spanish-speaking US citizens to go fuck themselves have to do with securing the border?
Sure, the RNC leadership gave this advice, but candidates and the top elected leaderships at the local, State and Federal levels agitated and turned out their winning electorates in 2010 and 2014 by tossing them bloody, bloody red meat. This helped them, and their most radical voters, make the case that the 2012 RNC report was wrong, that the real electoral problem was that the GOP needed to become more xenophobic and Dominionist and, most importantly, put xenophobia and Dominionism into policy practice. These campaigns told the voters that all of America’s problems were being caused by brown and black people, and that if we just elected them they would “take America back”.
Now, years later, the promises haven’t been kept.
These are the things that were promised, quite explicitly. What, now the Republicans are telling them that they need to compromise with the black President?
The base was sold magical thinking separated from reality. Trump blusters his way through speeches that do more than toss the red meat; he tosses buckets of blood into the crowd. These speeches take the magical thinking and crank it to 11.
The public has been taught to believe that policies outside the reality-based community could be passed and would succeed if their Party leaders sincerely wanted them done. It feels like it should be possible.
The most interesting thing this has revealed about the GOP base: their xenophobia is so much stronger than their Dominionism. Trump has had the room, so far, to say decent things about Planned Parenthood, as long as he keeps on tossing out those buckets of blood. Some of Trump’s supporters have depicted themselves as forced-birth Christianists in interviews at his rallies, but they loooooove how he tells it like it is so fearlessly about the Browns. So, his sordid personal and policy advocacy histories can be set aside, as long as Trump keeps baptizing them in that racist blood.
Good on all points but I think it might even be simpler.
It started with Nixon’s Southern Strategy. It perpetuated the 100 year old Civil War that was supposed to end with the Civil Right Movement and theVoting Rights Act.
Then the Watergate hearings. The scandle elevated cynicism and destroyed long held common courtesy for a sitting president. More so, the hearings were the first time Congress was televised and became must see TV. Not long after, CSpan started and Senators and Congressmen began playing to cameras in front of empty chambers.
Cable news then created a monster that had to be fed 24 hours a day. Politicians began to happily fill the void with sound bites, not policy speeches.
Jerry-rigging has now created majorities in both chambers of Congress that represent maybe 35% of Americans. This might be there most immediate and practical sin. The GOP can’t hold their local districts and win a national election/actually govern the nation at the same time.
Twitter: I am amazed in is election cycle how much Tweets pass as actual news. It is the sound bite on 24 hours cable news gone bonkoes. In the extreme The Donald makes a tweet about Megan Kelly and that instantly feeds the news for 36 hours. It is so fast it is beyond the control of the RNC or anyone.
These are dangerous times. FDR did so much to keep this country from falling into fascism. Lunatics like Trump are not new to this country or any country. My hope is that someone from any party will capture enough of the country’s imagination to restore our collective sanity and not exploit our insanity. Sorry, but Hillary isn’t it. Obama has a lot of that magic but has been handicapped but more than can be listed here. Frankly I’m pretty pessimistic even if I believe Trump and the 11 billion GOP clowns can’t get elected. The insanity and hate and paralysis and voter alienation will continue.
I’d also add Fox News to the mix. A presumed “mainstream” news outlet found it could rack up huge ratings while appealing to only about 35% of the country.
Celebrating next year 20 years of being on in every doctor’s, dentist’s office and every bar and restaurant and workout joint in the land.
Isn’t this a great country after all?
How it all went wrong?
They stoked and built and carefully cultivated a raging beast, ‘The Base’ (the ironic similarity to ‘Al Qeada’ would be delicious if it were not so damned bitter) are now surprised when it’s broken free of it’s bonds and is ravaging the village and it’s erstwhile masters.
Tangentially, while this seriously screws the GOP’s chances at the national level, it’s paid enormous benefits at the local and state level: Sam Brownback has turned Kansas into a bankrupt failed state, and the people rewarded him by letting him continue the destruction.