The UK’s Liberal Democrats have used their 5 minute “party election broadcast” slot on British TV to show Blair as a boy crying “WOLF” about the Iraq WMDs.
In another development the top secret minutes of a meeting in July 2002 have been leaked. These clearly show that Blair had agreed there should be regime change and that events at the UN should be engineered to allow the war. Advance planning had already taken place in the Pentagon.
First the broadcast. In th UK parties are not allowed paid advertisemnts on TV but are allocated free time on all the analog terrestrial channels. The number and time are dependent on a calculation based on previous results and the number of seats they are standing in.
Tonight the LibDems used the opening sequence to tell the story of a boy who claimed there were wolves in the wood. The local wolfman, Hans, went into the woods but found no trace of the wolf.
Then the boy showed his friend Howie (Michael Howard, Tory leader) a picture of some sheep. The boy told Howie that this clearly meant there were wolves. Wolves were know to wear sheep’s clothing so the sheep in the picture were really wolves. This time everyone went out and searched the woods. Still nothing was found.
By this time everyone started to doubt the boy but he refused to apologise. “We may not have found a wolf but clearly there were wolf-related activities” he said.
The full version should be available from this page on the LibDems’ site later but in the meantime the second one on car salesmen has a fun opening too.
The next development is far more serious and has implications for Americans. You have probably already seen some of it on Kos. The top secret minutes of a July 2002 meeting have been leaked and published by the Sunday Times. Present were Blair, senior members of the Government, Military, Intelligence Servie and unelected government advisers including Alistar “sexed-up dossier” Campbell.
Yhe meeting started with the intelligence chief giving a summary of the position. All emphases are mine.
John Scarlett summarised the intelligence and latest JIC assessment. Saddam’s regime was tough and based on extreme fear. The only way to overthrow it was likely to be by massive military action.{Note this is an asesment, it is not fact} Saddam was worried and expected an attack, probably by air and land, but he was not convinced that it would be immediate or overwhelming. His regime expected their neighbours to line up with the US. Saddam knew that regular army morale was poor. Real support for Saddam among the public was probably narrowly based.
“C” reported on a visit made to Washington where the war was being planned and was inevitable. Nothing at the UN would change this.
Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime’s record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action.
The two military options being considered by the Pentagon were describe. The second is the closest to what eventually went down.
(a) Generated Start. A slow build-up of 250,000 US troops, a short (72 hour) air campaign, then a move up to Baghdad from the south. Lead time of 90 days (30 days preparation plus 60 days deployment to Kuwait).
The figure is significant as those numbers were not actually reached. This could have something to do with troops intially being sent to Turkey, refused passage to Iraq and still in transit when the invasion started. It does however indicate that the plans were not fully in place at the start and that there was indeed a “rush to war” as many claimed at the time.
The nest extract will be of particular interest in the US as it shows that Bush was using the situation to party advantage
The Defence Secretary said that the US had already begun “spikes of activity” to put pressure on the regime. No decisions had been taken, but he thought the most likely timing in US minds for military action to begin was January, with the timeline beginning 30 days before the US Congressional elections.
The Foreign Secretary’s comments do much to destroy the case for the war but also show that the plot to manipulate the UN was in place
The Foreign Secretary said he would discuss this with Colin Powell this week. It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to allow back in the UN weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal justification for the use of force.
The Attorney General made it clear that regime chane was illegal under international law. The only legal way was to get UN Security Council approval. The referemce to earlier UNSC resolutions is a precuror to the caveats he gave in his draft Opinion the following March. That was the subject of last week’s leak.
The Attorney-General said that the desire for regime change was not a legal base for military action. There were three possible legal bases: self-defence, humanitarian intervention, or UNSC authorisation. The first and second could not be the base in this case. Relying on UNSCR 1205 of three years ago would be difficult. The situation might of course change.
This document may not be the nail in Blair’s political coffin it might seem at first. Voting factors make a complete change-round unlikely although there is a possibility of a hung parliament and a probability of a much reduced majority. It is however prima face evidence that this group coulld be guilty of “war crimes”, more specifically Crimes Against Peace in that they were planning an agressive war.
The qustions for Blair are not going away. As Charles Kennedy says at the end of the LibDems PEB, the matter will continue to dog him throughout the upcoming lame duck period.