Like all elections, the day after is not really the time to try and properly assess what the result means for the future. I am surprised that I feel slightly emotionally drained from watching the results come in – I thought that I had a greater detachment these days.
I suppose it is a compliment to Edis’ contribution to the campaign diaries that I got so committed to wanting a good showing to be made by the Liberal Democrats. I have had so many years of entering elections with high hopes and then having the disappointment of ambitions not being realised. Once again, I hoped for more than in the end the electorate delivers in terms of seats. Yet, in a day or two, I will realise that once again they have taken another real step forward towards becoming part of a three party system. I cannot help feel, however, that Kennedy has taken them as far as his personable but limited skills are able. They need a new, harder and more managerial edge to their leadership, a Dean to work on the internal policy, but the reasonable result will give them little incentive to change, I fear.
The Tories were kept out of office and still have a long way to go. This is good news as far as it goes. My concern here is that they did better than I would have liked. To some extent, it nullifies the gains made by the Liberal Democrats. More importantly, they ran a nasty campaign with its underlying theme appealing to the baser instincts of the right-wing Little Englanders whilst disguising their programme with a veneer of softer conservatism. The problem is that there is no incentive in the result for them to radically re-think their position or even change their leadership. Meanwhile, one or two of those sharp, ambitious younger Tories gain a few extra seats and prepare themselves for the future. It will remain, in Theresa May’s words, “the nasty party”.
What of the Labour Party? Weakened, yes. Yet once again, the results have not made the sort of difference that will result in immediate pressure coming on Blair. He was totally discredited in the election campaign but he will only be ousted by internal machinations within the Parliamentary Labour Party and he may hang on for a “graceful” exit until 2007. This is not the outcome that I hoped for, as the end of one of the most shameful episodes in British politics.
A detail, that I hope will not be important, is that I utterly dislike the fact that Galloway has returned to Parliament. He is a man who voices many of my concerns but I do not want to hear them expressed through him. He will damage and make vile a number of the causes that I hold to be important because he taints them with an uglier source of inspiration.
Which brings me to my real point of post-election night blues. All those revelations that emerged in the last two weeks of the election have not been mentioned by any commentator in the last forty-eight hours. “The Iraq War” as a general concept been discussed, obviously, as a factor in the election results. The fundamental deception of what happened in the run up to war, the lies and the frauds perpetuated on the people, however, have not been maintained as the defining factor of UK Election 2005.
It is as if those shocking insights that have become known have had their catharsis in the election and the media are now ready to leave this behind and move on. This must not happen. The election campaign must not be seen to have been the Michael Jackson trial of Blair and his cabinet, and the election result must not be seen as the decision by the jury. One way or another, we must keep the conventional media still hungry to hold to account those responsible.
This is what the Republicans have publicly maintained. They declare that the 2004 election was their trial on the Iraq issues and the jury gave them a free pass. So move on, they and the media demand, it is all so yesterday. Even on Daily Kos we get those who regard these events as “old news”.
That is why the cross-Atlantic tag team strategy must work. From the UK came the evidence for the Democrats to reawaken the interrogation of the untruths that have changed the world in which we live. We shall need them to keep this alive long enough for the aftermath of our own election to subside before accepting back the inspiration to progress these matters in tandem.
I just wish our own voice here was that of Congressman John Conyers and not George Galloway. Maybe we can make that so.
First, congratulations. I watched BBC’s 1/2 hour world news show on PBS at 11PM last night, and they showed how low Blair’s % of victory was.
Second: “All those revelations that emerged in the last two weeks of the election have not been mentioned by any commentator in the last forty-eight hours.”
This is sickening. Not even the left newspapers?
Last: John Conyers is wonderful, but I don’t sense that he gets much respect from major media.
Has anyone done stats on how often he gets to be on the air?
And thank you for a super analysis, even as tired as you are.
From NBC News’ “First Read” —
The wounds aren’t immediately mortal, but the Iraq war has arguably claimed a political casualty in Tony Blair. Somewhat paradoxically, the Labor leader has won an unprecedented third consecutive term as prime minister, but Labor’s share of the vote could be the lowest in history, and its majority in the House of Commons has been severely reduced. Speculation is rife about how long Blair can or will remain in his post before turning it over to anointed successor Gordon Brown, though the buzz may calm down in time. The new Parliament will meet on Wednesday; the official “state opening” takes place on May 17.
Now that Michael Howard has announced that he will be stepping down as the Conservative leader, any thoughts on the possible successors? The BBC has a page up giving very brief profiles of some of the possible leaders, but the only one I’ve ever heard of is Malcolm Rifkind. With the party’s increase to just about 200 seats, is there any sense whether the Tories are going to continue along the same lines, or might they move to radically shake up their policies? Would they likely move further to the right, or would they try to squeeze New Labor out of the center?
Also, what should we make of the apparent “success” of the UKIP and the British National Party? Is it troubling that they appear to have collected 3% of the total vote — nearly double their 2001 totals — even though the BNP only contested a fairly small number of constituencies (119, I think). Is it possible that within another election cycle or two they could move into Jean-Marie Le Pen/National Front territory (especially if the Tories let their focus on immigration/asylum issues wither)?
I posed a very slight variant of the second series of questions for an online discussion over at the Washington Post, with Philippe Naughton, a chief reporter for London’s TimesOnline, responding. Here’s what he had to say:
Le Pen, apart from being a much stronger politician in a country where race and immigration is an even bigger issue, could build support through the French system of regionalised proportional representation. I don’t think the Tories will let their sights slip from immigration, either. It’s worked quite well for them in this campaign, especially in Labour-Conservative marginals.
I think in many respects he’s stating the obvious here, especially that proportional representation is a barrier that should prevent the parties from winning seats, but I wonder if down the road UKIP or BNP could tip the balance in certain marginal constituencies (by drawing support away from the Tories). Unrestrained nationalism and xenophobia can be pretty powerful forces once they begin to take root.
From this side of the Atlantic, it appears that the Brit electorate is pretty much as numb and stupid and amoral as the one in the US. It is practically and article of faith among US liberal/lefty types that our collective idiocy is a result of a pandering press.
Britain, however, seems to have true diversity in its media, with a much broader range of voices and a much wider spectrum of topics (yall even speak of socialism and communism and atheism, for gods’ sake). So, Welshman, and others who know the place, how do you explain that the Brit electorate seems to suffer the same brain disease as their US counterparts, despite a lively and diverse news media?
We do have many bright people in this country and the UK. Our mission, as Welshman repeats to us often, is to spread the word, not give up in despair over their seeming gullibility. (Although I often adopt your well-articulated view, Dave, and myself despair about getting the word out. Still, we must try.)
This morning, Amy Goodman interviewed a member of a city council in — of all places — Bloomington, Indiana (Indiana on the whole is very, very conservative). This man passed a resolution — with a super-majority — against the war BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN. Awesome. Here’s a brief excerpt that should give us HOPE. And here’s the link to the full interview, which you can watch, listen to, or read via rush transcript:
ANDY RUFF: Thank you for having me.
AMY GOODMAN: Among the many resolutions and bills you have passed, your very prolific City Council, you passed a resolution against the invasion and occupation of Iraq. Can you talk about it?
ANDY RUFF: Yeah. A few months before the actual invasion, we passed a resolution by a supermajority, it passed with a supermajority of Council Members. And basically it said we oppose the invasion of Iraq as a community statement. A resolution is the formal way for a local legislative body to make a policy statement for their community. We opposed the invasion of Iraq without direct and clear evidence of imminent threat to this country and without the support and agreement of the international community. And we passed that and directed that to be sent to our Indiana Congressional delegation in Washington, the Office of the President, etc.
AMY GOODMAN: And how did they respond?
ANDY RUFF: Not a direct response from a lot of the recipients, but some of the Congressional delegation members, Baron Hill and others in Washington, Indiana representatives did respond.
AMY GOODMAN: Now, you have passed a whole series of resolutions and bills. Can you talk about some that you think are the most significant that have national implications?
ANDY RUFF: Well, you mention national implications, and I think it’s important that though these are local statements, taken collectively with communities around the country — how many passed resolutions opposing the invasion of Iraq; 100 or more? — I think it makes an extremely strong statement, and I think at a time in our nation’s history like this, when you have the neoconservatives and religious right really dominating the three branches of government at the federal level, these local statements are extraordinarily important for communities to make. It’s the one way you can have a voice – a formal and official voice of dissent on some of these issues. And some of the other issues that we have passed resolutions on have been the PATRIOT Act. We passed a resolution once again by supermajority opposing the — asking the PATRIOT Act be repealed as violations of Constitutionally protected rights and civil liberties. And once again, we directed that to our Congressional delegation. And we passed a resolution promoting fair elections with transparency, guaranteeing transparency, measures to be implemented to guarantee transparency and a verifiable paper trail for all voting. …
Yes, local governments do sometimes light up the darkness a little. Tho Bloomington is a university town that I’d bet routinely votes Dem — kind of the Austin of Indiana.
But I’m hoping some Brit has some insight on why the Brit public seems as dumb as ours despite much better journalism. We tend to hang our hopes on changing the media, but maybe we’re focused on the wrong problem.
Welshman, you might enjoy listening to a featured segment on Democracy Now! this morning. Amy Goodman interviewed:
The audio/video are up, but the transcript isn’t up yet…. it usually is by 11AM PDT (a couple hours from now).
Thanks Sue
Will watch.
Conyers:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/5/6/113947/8072
88 Representatives Want Answers on Leaked Memo
by Congressman John Conyers
[Subscribe]
Fri May 6th, 2005 at 08:39:47 PDT
Several days ago, I wrote to tell you about a letter I was circulating to the President demanding answers about revelations contained in a leaked British government memo. DailyKos readers, along with the Progressive Democrats of America, placed hundreds of calls to House of Representatives offices asking Members of Congress to sign on to the letter. The results are remarkable (especially given the short turnaround on the letter): as first reported on the Stephanie Miller show, 88 Members have signed the letter.
There would have been many more had there been more time. Every single Member of Congress I personally asked to sign the letter, signed it. You can find the letter here and the press release about it here.
In the meantime, the mainstream media is slowly waking up about the leaked memo. Knight Ridder, which has led a stampede in the past on other Iraq stories, once again has a thorough story on it today. I am hopeful that a letter on this, signed by 88 Members of Congress will lead other outlets to cover this very important story.
This is simply not the usual day-to-day partisan back and forth. To me, this disclosure raises the most serious constitutional questions.