Hi everybody!
This a thread to announce French Referendum results as they come and to discuss them. Please join in with your results, commentary, and media discussions.
For those of you that are not familiar with the subject, I have posted below the fold links to my previous diaries on the topic in recent weeks, with the story of the campaign and explanations of what’s at stake.
Update [2005-5-29 13:4:44 by Jerome a Paris]: Results announced – it’s above 55% for the “non”
Update [2005-5-29 15:27:29 by Jerome a Paris]: Exit poll say that the “oui” was about Europe, whereas the “non” was mostly about domestic issues. What is clear is that neither Chirac nor any government that he can set up in the near future will have any legitimacy and will not be in any position to renegotiate anything in Europe, nor to start any domestic reforms, even with Sarkozy as Prime Minister. France is effectively paralysed until the next elections (and along with it, Europe), due only in 2 years, unless Chirac agrees to early elections (which is highly unlikely). Once France has a new government (after the elections), the most likely scenario is still that this Constitution will be proposed to French voters again. Expect pressure for other governments to keep on the ratification process. (Apologies if I’m not around to react to your further comments. Off to sleep.)
Previous diaries:
EU Constitution – France Votes (VII). It’s tomorrow. My bet.
EU Constitution – France Votes (VI). One week to go
France Votes (V). 10 years of Chirac and the French model
Votes on EU Constitution (IV). Democracy in Action.
EU Constitution – France Votes. (Diary III). What if it’s No?
European Constitution – France votes soon. Diary II
France Votes on EU Constitution (I)
See also Welshman’s Jerome a Paris is killing me softly with his words diary, where many of these issues were also discussed, as well as the diary today by FrenchSocialist over at dkos: I just voted NO in France – defense of the NO vote, which is the ONLY PROGRESSIVE VOTE where a lot of discussion has been going on.
Something like 53% to 47% against.
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Could you expect ME to make any other suggestion,
non?
Oui – Liberté – Egalité – Fraternité
Ok … Oui!
I read one end-time prophet comparing the EU to the Beast of Revelation. If the end-times prophets are complaining about the EU, then it must not be THAT bad, despite French Socialist’s concerns.
Seriously, this would help the EU present a united front towards the US, necessary since the Bush administration is so used to talking down to them.
The last numbers I saw had Non ahead 53/56% to 47/44% Oui with an unknown number of undecideds.
According to Jerome French polls do not report Undecided numbers.
From what I’m gathering from the (internet) International Media turnout seems to be on the heavy side. Nobody is guessing what that means. (Unlike our own dear punditoids who speak whereof they know not.)
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therefore a higher turnout than expected, would mean the Oui voters are coming out and are voting! Could me decisive, similar to 1992 referendum vote. The media normally chant the opposition song, the silent majority need to voice their opinion in a democracy. A turnout above 50% is great.
The Netherlands will be voting on Wednesday. The polls show a similar advantage for the NO vote, a week ago nearly 60%. The last days, this number has decreased to about 55%. The expected turnout is 30%, a very poor number. The polls indicate 93% of the Dutch have no clear idea what the EU constitution is about. The far right and left parties are using this fact to voice their opposition to entry of Turkey, the expensive €uro and discontent with the harsh economic measures by present administration who are trying to limit budget deficit to 3%.
The result of the France vote will have a major impact on the Dutch vote, the polls expect the Dutch will follow the French outcome.
Oui – Liberté – Egalité – Fraternité
Yes, the high turnout makes me more optimistic for the “oui”
Just checked the Le Monde website and their online poll shows 32.1% Oui, 64.3% Non, and 3.6% Sans. This is highly inaccurate but may say the Non camp is more energized than the Oui camp.
From Le Monde:
De précédents sondages prévoyaient pour dimanche une abstention tournant autour de 30 % des inscrits, globalement comparable à celle du référendum sur Maastricht. Mais les derniers chiffres diffusés par les instituts de sondages dans la soirée de dimanche sont finalement très différents : CSA avance désormais un chiffre de 17,5% d’abstention à la clôture des bureaux de vote, tandis qu’une estimation de l’institut Ipsos publiée dimanche après 19 heures et réalisée pour France 2, Europe 1 et le Figaro évoque un chiffre compris entre 20 et 24%.
Which Google translated to:
Preceding surveys envisaged for Sunday an abstention turning around 30 % of the registered voters, overall comparable with that of the referendum on Maastricht. But the last figures diffused by the institutes of surveys in the evening of Sunday are finally very different: Csa advances from now on a figure of 17,5% of abstention to the fence from the polling stations, while an estimate of the Ipsos institute published Sunday after 19 hours and realized for France 2, Europe 1 and the Barber evokes a figure ranging between 20 and 24%.
(I note, “… abstention to the fence from the polling stations…”. How can one argue with that?) 🙂
The Geneva Tribune (which, being in Switzerland, is not bound by French law which forbids publication of polls during the week-end of the vote), says that in their Friday poll, the oui was back up to 49%
66% at 7pm
They are saying on the radio that it is higher than for the first round of the 2002 Presidential election, which is HUGE.
It’s hard to make direct comparisons as they have extended voting hours (to 10pm in Paris and a fews other big cities).
What???
They have extended voting hours past the original closing times? What kind of democracy is that?!! If they’re still in line when the polls close, the polls close and those folks are outta luck. Works in Ohio.
That was decided a while ago. what i meant is that it has been extended to a later hour than happened in previous elections.
It’s usually been open until 6 or 7pm in the provinced and 8pm in Paris and a few other big cities. This is the first election with voting open until 10pm, is all.
If you’re into conspiracies, you could say that this favors the “rich” that go for the week-end and come back late to the city, and who are presumed to be more favorable to the “oui”…
Jerome,
The comment was meant as a little joke. But not a very good one, it seems.
Actually, the high turnout numbers are most impressive and put American voters to shame.
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REUTERS latest news —
French in brisk turnout to vote on EU treaty
Oui – Liberté – Egalité – Fraternité
as per Swiss TV (which is not bound by French law not to divulge results)
http://www.letemps.ch
It’s pretty good, but not as high as I wrote above.
similar to the Masstricht Treaty referendum, and higher than recent regional and other elections.
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France 2 tv
Le Traité établissant uneConstitution pour l'Europe
Oui – Liberté – Egalité – Fraternité
Oui or Jerome – any reaction from Germany (who just voted ‘Ja’), Belgium, the Netherlands from your media? I’m not finding a thing over here except the usual “Duh-OH?”
I imagine Tony Blair is jumping for joy. He can now say the “Conditions” are not right for a vote.
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Did not want issue of a French NON vote as a distraction for his EU agenda. The Dutch will now surely follow with a NEE, both are founding members of the EU Six: Germany, France, Italy and the Benelux countries.
Robert Schuman Monument in BrusselDutch TV and Media Coverage of French NON!
Oui – Liberté – Egalité – Fraternité
Thank You for the link.
I am forwarding to several Dutch friends of mine.
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Oui – Liberté – Egalité – Fraternité
France Info:
Non: 55.6%
Oui: 44.4%
Turnout: 70%
“Blancs/Nuls”: 2%
Le Pen (xenophobic far right) and another guy already called for Chirac to resign; how unexpected…
Meh.
Chirac speaks:
You have chosen democratically to reject the Constitution.
We’re still part of Europe and we’ll fulfill our obligations
The ratification process is underway. Others will have their say. In the meantime, current treaties will apply.
At the next European summit (16 June) I will defend France’s position, including this vote.
You have expressed your worries and hopes. I will hear it and will give a new push on the domestic front. I will inform you in the coming days of my decisions.
he also said that this vote will not help France defend its interests on the European stage.
Sarkozy speaks
Passionate debate and strong vote
Very strong message, following 2002 and 2004 votes
The French want real change, away from habits, frilosity, immobility
They want a more protective, more democratic and closer to their daily worries
I regret this vote, but Europe cannot stay with the unsatisfactory current treaties
We need to discuss with others howx to change rules to function at 25
We need to reinforce “préférence communautaire”, fight delocalisation, have an immigration policy.
But this message is not only about Europe, but alos about their desire to live better, their fear of unemployment. We need to rebuild our social model. we must recreate hope. We need an ambitious programme, with major changes in our policies. Full employment is not impossible, as shown in other countries. We need to put everything on the table, change the old recipes.
It’s adifficult period that begins, it requires courage, strength, and unity of the UMP. I will try to help to find a solution for France.
He is clearly bidding for the Prume Ministership, and wants to set the terms for a new policy, which sounds like a hard right (the French way) – more labor flexibility, but more protectionism.
Yes, the left will get what they voted for…
ajor decision, all the stronger as strong participation
bad for Europee, deprived of its rules
reflects the anguish, anger, and exasperation of the French agaisnt Chirac, who broke all his promises and did not listen to earlier votes
anger against the prime minister who has been a failure ( a succession of failures)
This vote is a rejection of the current power, the unhappiness with the economic situation, unemployment, wages. europe unfairly blamed.
Socialists, and I am proud of it, fololowing their European tradition, their internal vote, made a choice to separate the text of the Treaty from the domestic context. They should not regret it. It was hard to be heard, as it was divide”d, some refusing to follow internal rules.
The right has failed, and Chirac promises more of the same, even with a new government, with the same results. Nothing should be expected from Sarkozy’s bid either – it’s more of the same.
It’s up to the left to reunite and to get ready for a real change. The socialists who were true to their ideals shouls stand together, and decide their own paty. Militants will decide, I promise it.
Europe should not fall victim to the right’s failure. It is up to the socialists to provide a new perspective in Europe, with a new, credilbe project.
The silver lining must be that this fiasco will ensure Chiraq the place in history he deserves. It strikes me that every popular prejudice against politicians is an accurate description of this corrupt, power-craving, vain, pompous, vacuous, all-talk-and-no-action SOB. I have frankly more respect for Tony Blair, and I am no fan of Blair.
All right, I’m pissed off. Is it okay to pick on, say, the NY Times?
No shit Sherlock. You mean a referendum, where there’s only two choices, yes or no, splits the electorate in two? I’m shocked.
Yeah, with months of polls, up until the last day, showing a majority for the “no”, they must be really, really shocked…
They had another bs on about the police closing subway stations in Paris — because of planned rallies — implying some sort of disorder… Actually that’s standard procedure in Paris, they always shut off the stations located at the heart of manifestations or when there will be huge crowds. That’s to avoid uncontrolled and potentially dangerous crowd movements in confined space. It looks like the NYT put online a new version omitting that note a few minutes ago.
Ah, I’m feeling a little bit better already.
Um, actually, no. That sucks.
At least, in Lyon, almost 62% voted Oui!
I think would should join the EU independantly…
The Le Monde has a pretty cool reports website up.
They are starting to put-up the results now.
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French voters have overwhelmingly rejected the European Union’s proposed constitution in a key referendum.
Almost 55% of people voted “No”, with 45% in favour, according to final interior ministry figures. The vote could deal a fatal blow to the EU constitution, which needs to be ratified by all 25 member states.
President Jacques Chirac accepted the voters’ “sovereign decision”, but said it created “a difficult context for the defence of our interests in Europe”. Mr Chirac said that “Voters had registered their frustrations, and he would take a decision on the future of his centre-right government in the coming days”, hinting at a possible reshuffle.
NON 55%
Late on Sunday jubilant “No” supporters gathered at the Place de la Bastille in Paris – where the French Revolution began – chanting “we won” and sounding horns.
Those who rejected the treaty came from across the political spectrum, including Communists, dissident socialists and right-wing parties. One of the leading right-wing opponents of the treaty, Philippe de Villiers, said: “Europe has to be rebuilt. The constitution is no more.” He urged Mr Chirac either to stand down or dissolve parliament.
Across Europe
The Dutch will vote on a non-binding referendum on Wednesday June 1st, have clear support for a YES vote from the largest opposition Labor party PvdA and the Labor Unions. The polls still indicate the NO votes are leading with 55%. The result in France adds a new slogan to the Dutch campaign: “Say NO to the French and YES for the EU constitution Charter”.
Polls in Poland and Denmark indicate a large majority for the YES vote! Especially surprising for Denmark, as the Danish people had many misgivings about the EU and the single currency of the €uro.
Oui – Liberté – Egalité – Fraternité
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It’s not an issue of democracy, the majority of the French are FOR European integration. The choice of a referendum was a poor one. “Oui” or “Non” for the EU Constitutional Charter is not what the French voted, although the new charter is a vast improvement over the present Nice Agreements and tailored for the EU with its 25 member states.
The political decision of necessity to re-unite Europe after the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, has somehow caught the citizens of Europe by surprise for its ramifications in the economic union. We all like to spend our vacations in those poor countries because of the low cost, including Turkey, but to accept responsibility for a united Europe, everyone suddenly felt the pinch in one’s wallet.
The opposition forces in France, especially the Communists, labor unions and far left socialists, prefer large subsidies by the French government to keep Credit Lyonnais, Renault, Peugeot, Alsthom, Bull from sinking. The agricultural sector have a love for the large EU subsidies to keep the farmers farming the way their dad’s generation were kept a guaranteed income by the state. No thought about the long-term effect for third-world nations who can’t compete with subsidized EU products.
On the opposite political spectrum, the right-wing Le Pen had no problem with his racists views to get a 15% of the population to vote “Non”.
In the Netherlands, the Dutch are voting June 1st for their first referendum ever, the polls have indicated a same large “Nay” vote of nearly 60%. The same poll indicates that 93% of the voters admit they have no idea what the EU Constitutional Charter is about – hail to democracy. It will be a non-binding vote, although an increasing number of parties reluctantly are admitting they cannot ignore the result of the democratic opinion.
Contrary to France, in the Netherlands the parties from Labor (PvdA), Greens, Christian Democrats (CDA) and right-wing Liberals (VVD) all are FOR the new EU Charter and would have an easy two-thirds majority of the deciding vote in parliament. Also a strong voice in support come from all major Dutch Labor unions, as they agree the new charter increases the democratic content of the European Parliament and have more clarity on the social issues of the EU.
So have someone please explain the joy of democracy in this vote by referendum, instead of a decision made by our parliamentary representatives hired to do their job!
Oui – Liberté – Egalité – Fraternité