Juan Cole writes today: “Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (actually Ahmad al-Khalayleh of Zarqa) has been elevated by the Bush administration to an almost mythic position as the fomenter of much of the violence in Iraq. It isn’t true.” (Which we know here.) More quotable Cole below:
Juan Cole continues:
I haven’t commented much about the alleged activities of Zarqawi, mostly reported from anonymous and easily manipulated web sites. He was said to have had a meeting with lieutenants, maybe in Syria, maybe in Anbar. He was said to be at Ramadi. Ramadi was apparently locked down by the US military as a result. He was said to be wounded at Ramadi. Now some sites are saying he is dead. Those that maintain that he is still alive argue over he should “step down” in favor someone else to head up “Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia.”
It turns out that the “meeting in Damascus” scenario is probably just propaganda. The Baath Party in Syria has a deep fear of Sunni fundamentalists. He is an unlikely ally for them.
I don’t trust those jihadi web sites. I think someone is jerking the US press around, and it could be anybody, including USG.
It doesn’t matter, anyway. We historians don’t believe in the great man theory, unlike the Bush administration. Zarqawi leads a social movement of several hundred persons, if he exists at all. If he is killed, the social movement will just go on.
Actually we know his real name is Emmanuel Goldstein.
Pax
I’ve covered this b-4; Foreign fighters are the least of our worries.
People have a hard time accepting it.
Juan Cole, Robert Baer, and Micheal Scheuer (et cetra…) agree. This is largely an internal struggle. Or to put it better, it is a struggle between a small but vicious and well trained al-Qaeda in Iraq, a Sunni resistance (the Bathist), Shiite political forces (with military might), a patient Kurdish coalition and U.S. (et al) troops. Not a good mix.
The reason al-Qaeda in Iraq is so strong is it is tapping into the large number of insurgents that got their training in Afghanistan and elsewhere then went back to their homes to fight their gov’ts or wait for the call of Jihad. From the 80s till 2001; imagine the numbers of trained Islamist that are waiting on the sidelines. That said; they don’t need large numbers of fighters. They want to be a small and mobile unit, just like are military. The Sunni Bathists are the same only they (IMO) will be the first to see their ranks dwindle.
It’s good that Cole highlights it because he does get read and quoted by more mainstream folks. Even Charlie Rose has him on (!).
You really have a handle on this, hfiend. Which are your favored sources?
I like books from CIA insiders (hence Baer and Scheuer).
The CIA is clandestine and effective. They don’t take credit for progress because they are clandestine. It is the FBI who takes the credit, mostly in the form of leaking info to the press. Example;. intercepting al-Qaeda cell phone transmissions, why would you let them know that we knew their cell phones or how to listen in… the answer; to brag and get more money from the gov’t. Never again will they (al-Qaeda) make that mistake. IMO that is a battle we lost.
I’m rambling…
I like to use books and b-4 I read NYT, WaPo, Kos or Boo…I read Cole and have the utmost respect for the man. In short, he is brilliant.
you got to check out this diary, actually the discussion that followed, over at dKos!
Who, or what, makes up the Iraqi insurgency?
Enjoy 🙂
There was a very good investigative report sometime ago in la Repubblica on web jihadis. The investigators managed to trace the source to an address in Atlanta, Georgia if I remember well.
Usually obscure web proclams get big titles in the Berlusk press and end up splattered across his news programs. Something to excite, reassure and outrage the dolts that fall for that crap.
As often happens, la Repubblica called their game, but nothing came of it.
PsyOps, BlackOps, it’s all a part of war. To paraphrase Voltaire, If Zarqawi didn’t exist, we’ld have to invent him.
Which is probably the case.
Of course this does not exclude that intel could set up fake sights to lure fanatics to them.
Mythic proportions? Possibly, but he is no Keyser Soze.
Verbal: Who is Keyser Soze? He is supposed to be Turkish. Some say his father was German. Nobody believed he was real. Nobody ever saw him or knew anybody that ever worked directly for him, but to hear Kobayashi tell it, anybody could have worked for Soze. You never knew. That was his power. The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.
Drat! Still tryin’ to get one by Susan.
Keyser Soze
Jeff Rabin: I’m telling you this guy is protected from up on high by the Prince of Darkness