I love it when al-Qaeda releases a new vid and then the media rushes to analyze every part of. Taking note the number of times the speaker glanced around the room, the make of the gun included in the vid, and the color of his turban (White). Although this analysis is pointless and does little to protect anyone, it is sadly more than our own Government is doing to find and fight the al-Qaeda entity at its head.
The most recent communication between al-Qaeda and the rest of the world stared Ayman al-Zawahri, al-Qaeda’s #2. It was basically a stump speech where al-Zawahri made al-Qaeda’s case against secular and democratic reform in Arab countries. He asserts that the use of non-violent disobedience is not enough to resist the those he referred top as “Crusader and Jewish invaders”.
Ayman al-Zawahri hasn’t been heard from since early February.
In a brief spurt of decent reporting, NBC stumbles on this
On at least seven occasions in the past six years, a statement by al-Zawahri has been followed by a significant al-Qaida attack within three weeks, an NBC News analysis of the statements show. In four cases, the attacks came within a week.
U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say that while they cannot conclusively link all the attacks to the statements, they say the statements have to be taken seriously because of an apparent pattern.
One described U.S. fears that al-Qaida operatives use the statements as possible “go signals” to initiate attacks. This official also noted that al-Zawahri’s call to arms that aired on Dec. 19, 2004, was a key factor in the U.S. decision to raise the terrorism threat level two days later.
The four occasions where a Zawahri statement was most closely followed by an attack were:
- On Aug. 6, 1998, Zawahri sent a statement to a London-based Arabic newspaper saying: “We are interested in briefly telling the Americans that their messages have been received and that the response, which we hope they will read carefully, is being readied.” The next day, suicide bombers blew up U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania, killing more than 220 people. Al-Qaida took responsibility for the attacks.
- On Oct. 9, 2002, a Zawahri tape threatened attacks on the United States, its economy and allies. “I promise you that the Islamic youth are preparing for you what will fill your hearts with horror…” Three days later, bombs destroyed a Bali nightclub leaving more than 200 people, mostly westerners, dead. Officials in the U.S., Australia and Indonesia later said al-Qaida financed the attack.
- In an Oct. 1, 2004, radio address, Zawahri called on Muslims worldwide to help in the Palestinian struggle. Six days later, al-Qaida attacked three Egyptian tourist resorts frequented by Israelis on the Sinai Peninsula, killing 34 people, about half of them Israelis.
- On Nov. 29, 2004, Zawahri issued a video statement promising Americans that Muslims will continue to attack them unless the United States changes its policies against Islam. He said that the U.S. invasion of Baghdad is only the beginning of the American occupation, and warned that it would spread to other countries. On the morning of Dec. 6, armed Jihadists attacked the U.S. consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, killing eight and wounding 15 others.
Not pointed out was the events that seemed somewhat related after his recent February communication; to me although I may be reaching. On 10 February, Zawahri spoke about bushCo.’s claim of democracy taking hold in the Mid-East. On 14 February an explosion in Lebanon that now has been confirmed as a truck bomb; squashing any thought that the explosion was the result of an inside job, planted in the ground somewhere around the building. This is the act the resulted in the protest and counter protests that caused Syria to exit Lebanon, and brought a first un-weighted election that has increased Hezbollah representation in the Lebanon government from 12 total to 33 as of now; with one more round to go. It also made Lebanon a Shi’a state. An al-Qaeda connection or speculation?
Now this has been a short diary so how about a speculative poll?