For some time, no matter how strong their opposition to the war, very few politicians have said (out loud) the USA should leave Iraq sooner rather than later. One of the accepted maxims of the past two years plus has been..We made the mess, we have to fix it. On the face of it, it makes sense. We’re Americans, we messed up, we’re the leaders of the free world and we live up to our responsibilities. We can’t just walk out of Iraq and leave the millions of civilians to whatever will come next. So let’s take a close look. (crossposted at Dkos but diaries stay so short)
What would happen if we left? Seems likely the various major factions will fight and civil war will break out. Hundreds if not thousands of Iraquis will die every month. Most likely a theocracy similar to Iran would emerge for much of the country. Or a dictator who would hold power by brutal force. Now what exactly would be so different than the current situation?
Many people have said we need to build a real coalition and bring in Arab partners to help maintain security and allow the Iraquis time to be able to handle their own security. Let’s get one thing straight. To the Arab world we are the invader, the oppressor. Any government, Turkey and Jordan and Saudi Arabia included would be asking for instant mass demonstrations if they sent troops to support the Americans. What would we do if we were in their shoes.
None of the analysts, on TV or in government have said we can leave within the next two years and more likely five. Who really knows? What if we’re there for ten years? The situation certainly hasn;t gotten better over the past two years. We’ve had more casualties in the forst two weeks ofthis month than the entire month of June last year. One of the most dangerous routes in Iraq runs from the airport to Baghdad. Six miles and there are attacks and bombs on pretty much a daily basis.
So what if we’re there long enough to lose 10,000 service people and 50,000 wounded? Will we elect a President who is bigger and tougher and promises to fix the problem. How do we fix the problem?
What if we left? We announce we’re going to leave and just like we did in Vietnam, we leave. We left there on short notice. What if Iraq becomes a theocracy? We’ve existed with one in Iran and Europe gets along with Iran more or less.
The likely answer will be..the MidEast will explode. Everything will go to hell in a handbasket. Will it? Isn’t it already there? Do the American people really want to stay in Iraq and occupy it for however long it takes to achieve what Karl Rove said is ‘total victory’? What does ‘total victory’ look like? It’s possible withdrawing may look better inside 5 years than ‘total victory’. Your turn.