Progress Pond

7/1 to 7/8 05, 06, and 08 Campaign Update; Electoral News

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2005, 2006, 2008 Electoral & Campaign News, Notes & Analysis for 7/1 to 7/8

I’m going to try and write more of my own analysis in these campaign news compilation diaries. Campaign news (2005, 2006, and 2008), election laws, voting issues, etc. are covered. Items via a variety of sources (i.e. The Note, National Journal, etc.), diaries at DKos, or found by me through Google News.  Unless otherwise noted, opinions in links aren’t mine (nor do I necessarily endorse them). I try to separate my personal comments from the news, but I didn’t always make it as clear as I could. I’m still trying to work that out.

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (R) is sworn in by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeal Judge Stephen Reinhardt (L) during his inauguration ceremony July 1, 2005. Villaraigosa is the first Latino mayor of Los Angeles since 1872. Holding the Bible is Villaraigosa’s wife Corina. Photo by Jim Ruymen/Reuters

Special Commentary for the Week
More commentary here and there in the rest of the sections, but I did want to separate this from everything else.

The names of newer federal PACs for potential Democratic 2008 contenders are very similar.  Biden’s is “Unite Our States.” Warner’s is “Forward Together.” I’m probably missing a few, but an emerging theme is one of unity. Someone who can pull the country together.  After times of divisiveness, the American public, particularly the middle, could feel more of a pull towards a “uniter” candidate. The changing of the political winds?  I don’t know. I do know that a “uniting” message has to strike the right chord not only with the moderates but also with the left.  Warner ran in 2001 for VA governor by saying that the areas of VA that didn’t have as much prosperity as other parts of VA needed to be lifted up, too. His message was that people should be able to find a job and raise a family in the area they grew up, if they wanted to live there. I think that really could strike a nice chord, because it addresses family issues, economic issues, and class issues without beating anyone over the head.  Warner probably needs to improve on the delivery of speeches and the like though. Biden probably could run on a “unite the world” theme, considering his experience in foreign policy. He is currently the ranking Democrat on the foreign relations committee. Biden would also likely make an argument that he’d be able to get support from the left and the middle to get the 51%.  I don’t think Clinton would have the easiest time making the argument, but she’s doing everything she can to knock down the “too liberal!!!!!!” cries. Bayh’s a moderate and his level of support in a red state (much like Warner’s level of support in a red state) by itself would signal the “uniting” theme.

The questions I have for you: Do you think that a “Let’s unite!” message in 2008 will strike a chord? If so, how far could a candidate go with a message like that?

Democratic Party Branding, Electoral Issues, Party News, Shifts in Voting Pref, etc.

2005

Less than a month to go! OH-2

November
VA

NYC Mayor

State & Local Races; State/Regional News, Analysis & Organizing

2006

2006 Roundup Democratic Candidates Coming Out of the Woodwork, by MrLiberal

House of Representatives

GENERAL
* House Democrats buy newspaper ads. The ads target 6 Republican House members. DCCC and the DNC have bought ads about the ethics of Rep. Duke Cunningham (CA), Tom DeLay (TX), Bob Ney (OH), Richard W. Pombo (CA), Rob Simmons (CT), and Charles H. Taylor (NC). Not only are some of these guys the ones most in trouble with the law, but in Rob Simmons case, already vulnerable.  Clearly, DCCC is targeting these 6 for 2006.  

CA-50 Duke Cunningham’s seat. Francine Busby (D) is running against him.

IL-08 Former state Rep. Al Salvi (R) won’t run against freshman Rep. Melissa Bean (D).

IN-? Vandenburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) could give Rep. John Hostettler (R) a strong challenge.

MN-02

NC-11 Rep. Charles Taylor (R) is in some trouble for ethical lapses. DCCC is running print ads in the district, so one must assume that they are targeting Taylor. Any ideas on which Dem could kick his ass? Patsy Keever was the Democratic candidate in 2004. A Michael Morgan apparently has declared, but I know little about him and his chances. Anyone know what kind of Democrat is needed to win this race?

WI-05 Take Down Sensenbrenner!, by fink

2006

Senate
* maxpalmer will try to profile every US Senator. Two Senators a day.

Indiana
* Ex-Rep. Tim Roemer (D) won’t challenge Lugar.

Minnesota
* Klobuchar (D) raises $650k in 2nd Q, by Ihyunh

Nebraska
* Former Nebraska Republican Party Chairman David Kramer and former state Attorney General Don Stenberg will face-off in the primary for the right to take on Sen. Ben Nelson (D).

OH

PA

RI
* Three months after announcing his campaign, former state AG Sheldon Whitehouse (D) has about the same amount of money in his campaign coffers as Linc Chafee (R). Both have about $1 million CoH. Link. It’s quite a sad state of affairs for Chafee.

2006

Governor

Alaska
* Alaska House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz to run for governor against the despised current Gov. Frank Murkowski (R).

Arkansas
* (Edited from Hotline) In the 1stQ, Ex-Rep./ex-DHS undersec Asa Hutchinson (R) reported $54K and LG Win Rockefeller (R) reported $63K. Rockefeller plans to use some of his own money.

California
* A new poll shows that Californians don’t like the union bashing from Arnold.

Colorado
* Current Gov. Bill Owens (R) endorsed Rep. Bob Beauprez for governor. (Denver Post)

Connecticut
* (Edited from Hotline) Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy (D) said that he’s raised $228K in the 2 months since he was cleared of wrongdoing by state investigators… New Haven Mayor John DeStefano (D) “widened his financial lead” over Malloy and Sec/State Susan Bysiewicz (D), and will report raising $460K in 3 months, giving him $1.7M COH. Bysiewicz said she’ll report raising $225 in the quarter, “meaning Malloy raised in two months what Bysiewicz collected in three.” She’ll have $1.2M COH to Malloy’s $871K

Florida

Hawaii
* HI-Gov: Mayor Kim may challenge Lingle, by scottmaui

Iowa

As if the field of Dems running for governor in Iowa wasn’t big enough, former congressman and state economic development Director Mike Blouin [announced] his intention to run[Wednesday]. Blouin will be the fifth Dem to join the race, with two more also weighing bids. With so many candidates, it’s likely that none of the candidates will reach the 35% threshold needed to avoid a nominating convention. With this in mind, state party officials are already making plans for such a convention next summer. The Republican side of the equation is more clear: U.S. Rep. Jim Nussle will take on business consultant Bob Vander Plaats.

Michigan
* (Hotline) Amway heir Dick DeVos (R) “has the deepest-ever pockets” of any MI GOV candidate, but “fret not for Gov. Jennifer Granholm” (D). She has raised $2.6M so far for ’06, with $1.3M COH, and is accelerating funding efforts through her “G4 Team.”

Nevada

Ohio
* Copied entirely from Hotline, because they give a sense of urgency to it that mirrors the anonymous poll that Kos posted earlier. Hotline’s titled for this section was “Ohio GOP Sends Out SOS.”

OH’s “most influential” GOP leaders are privately “looking for a viable alternative” to the 3 current GOV candidates — “someone not tarnished” by coin dealer Tom Noe and who “can appeal to the conservative base,” raise money, “give a lively speech” and attract “top-level” staff. “Someone like” ex-Rep./FNC contributor John Kasich (R). Kasich won’t comment on it, “but his friends say he no longer is ruling out a run,” and he’s “even discussed a series of conditions that would be required for him to enter the race,” according to a source familiar with the talks.
      Kasich wants a clear field, “which means that party leaders would have to persuade” Sec/State Ken Blackwell (R), Aud. Betty Montgomery (R) and AG Jim Petro (R) to bow out. Each of the 3 has received money from Noe, and new polls show that amid the “growing investment scandals,” their approval ratings have dropped. Petro “has been battling critics who contend that he did not move quickly enough to seize Noe’s assets,” while Montgomery “has been hammered for not doing a special audit” until 1 month after the scandal broke (Theis, Cleveland Plain Dealer, 7/3).

Oklahoma

Texas
* MyDD: Chris Bell for TX Governor

Pres 2008

Allen
* George Will writes that Allen could potentially bridge divide between social conservatives and libertarians in the GOP.

Bayh

Clinton
* Bill Graham says he didn’t intend to endorse Clinton. Right wing propagandist media was all over this last weekend.

Edwards

Richardson
* Profile of NM Gov. Bill Richardson, by malkori Make sure to read the replies for more information and any corrections. There are likely to be other profiles of Richardson and others from people other than this diarist, and I would just urge everyone to get a full picture of each potential 2008 candidate and not cling to one profile over another.  I’ve seen some things posted about candidates for all kinds of offices posted that are either half-truths or completely untrue.

Tancredo

Warner

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Links of Interest:

Pease post in the replies of official Democratic candidate websites (esp. those for candidates who will be in tough races come 2005 or 2006) that you know of.  Thanks!

Consider Making a Donation to Democratic Candidates

Donate strategically or based on who you agree with more. Early money is always helpful. Not only does it allow the campaign to get advertising out there earlier, but it also helps the campaign plan expenditures.  Many campaigns end up with money leftover, because so much is donated in the final weeks of the campaign.  They didn’t know they were going to get so much money, and didn’t plan accordingly.  Keep in mind that TV ads are locked in about a week before the day of the election, so ad production ceases around then.  Purchases for ad time tends to happen months or weeks earlier.  Campaigns need flexibility as well.  The best ways for getting the message out to voters are different in different states.  In addition, early money (esp. in House races) helps attract money from DCCC, which has limited resources.  Early money can also send a message to a Republican incumbent.  He/she may not be able to campaign elsewhere if he/she has to deal with a challenge (however minor) at home.
Electoral Politics and Official & Unofficial Democratic Party Campaign Websites and Blogs Look at the categories in the beginning, and go to the section with campaign sites. Sites are listed by state. They are mixed in with blogs focused on the politics in a state or region.

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