(Cross-posted at dKos)
I have been following Traitorgate as avidly as anybody. Yesterday, while all the hoopla in the news was about the speculation about Bush’s SCOTUS pick, I was reading the Feb 2005 Fed Appeals Court decision that allowed Judy Miller to be sent to jail and compelled Matt Cooper to talk. However, this morning I woke up deeply concerned by the consensus being developed that the Roberts pick was moved up as a distraction from Rove.
I think it’s the other way around. I think the Roberts pick and its announcement in the thick of the continuing Traitorgate revelations is actually aimed at ensuring that Roberts gets through without a fight.
Lawrence O’Donnell, who originally broke the news that Rove was Cooper’s source and who has been following Traitorgate extremely closely argued pretty persuasively on Franken yesterday that the WH knows indictments are coming and that it is that event and not the dust-ups this week that are the big fight on the Rove front. If that is the case, then what was the point of moving up the Roberts announcement now?
I’ll present my theory of WWRD? (What Would Rove Do?) below the fold.
You are Karl Rove. You know something big, heavy, and ugly is headed your way from a Rottweiler named Fitzgerald, because for once in your nasty political career you miscalculated big time. However, being Karl, you figure you can deal with that battle when the time comes. In the mean time, you see a way to use initial skirmishes to your advantage.
You have a different battle you’re also trying to fight. You want to get Bush’s SCOTUS nominee confirmed and confirmed handily, but you’re replacing O’Connor instead of Rehnquist as you had expected. You’ve found a great stealth candidate who will be like Scalia, only younger, prettier, and with a picture-perfect family. However, you’re still wary, because the interest groups are organized and ready to fight you tooth and nail on whomever you pick.
Then you enter your own personal shitstorm, and you — in your usually Rovian way — see an opportunity. What if you use the frenzy around your own battle (that you realize is just a skirmish before the real war, even if your enemies do not) to provide the perfect cover for your candidate? Before the enemy (us) and the press (fickle allies of late) figure out what you’re up to, it will be too late, because public opinion about Roberts will have solidified into positive support and any attempts to challenge him will receive the following frame: “no Bush candidate, no matter how mainstream, will satisfy these left-wing extremists.” Roberts will be confirmed and any Dems who challenge him will risk backlash.
If you’re Rove, you’ve used your lemons to make some pretty damn good lemonade, especially since the lemons are unavoidable.
So what should our response be?
FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WE SHOULD BE ALL ROBERTS ALL THE TIME.
I don’t know enough about this guy at this point to form more than a sketchy impression of him. The rest of the country is in the same boat. A headline last night described it well: Republicans jubilant, Democrats wary.
It’s precisely in the next few days that people are going to form their EMOTIONAL reaction to Roberts. This window is finite but crucial, and we’d better make the most of it. Traitorgate isn’t going anywhere, so let’s put our focus where it’s most needed.
A couple more points:
- The Rove story will ripen with or without us. While emotionally it’s more satisfying to pursue Rove right now, we have to be disciplined and keep our eye on the ball. Roberts will be around to screw up our lives (if he’s so inclined) long after Rove is led away in a lovely orange jumpsuit.
- Emotion is the key. People are getting these first impressions of Roberts now. Trite but true, first impressions matter. Last night was a conservative photo op come true. If Roberts is really a Scalia clone (a more handsome, telegenic, and perhaps dangerous Scalia clone?) that some suspect he might be, we’d better figure it out fast and jump on his weaknesses. Once public opinion hardens, we won’t have a bat’s chance in hell to shift it.
- Strategically, I see this very akin to the first Swifty attacks right after the Democratic Convention. If we’re going to fight Roberts, we have to make up our minds to do it soon, and then hit back hard and fast, or we might as well give up the fight.
- Fitzgerald has plugged along fine on his own up to now. A few days without us enjoying daydreams about Rove in cuffs isn’t going to affect the case against the WH traitors one little bit.
- Finally, lets show Rove and the Right that we have the discipline to go after the story that we need to go after instead of the one that gives us that warm, fuzzy feeling inside. Turdblossom isn’t going anywhere. Fitgerald isn’t either. We’ll have plenty of time to fight that battle later.