Cross posted from It Affects You
Any Conan fans out there? If you are, than you’ll understand the thread title…
I’m going to make a few not-so-bold predictions about the 2006 races. It’ll be far from all-inclusive, and pointing that out just provides me with a way to save face later.
At any rate, here goes:
- Many Republicans will continue to distance themselves from Bush. He won’t receive many invites to congressional districts with competitive races, and candidates will avoid presidential photo-ops and otherwise avoid appearing buddy-buddy with Bush. At least a few candidates will make significant noise running openly against Bush’s policies in Republican primaries.
- Rather than allow this growing wing of the Republican party to have a voice in the national debate, the Conservative core of the Republican party will be unforgiving of this trend and stubbornly hold their ground. There will be no internal compromises and no policy shifts. The two sides will grow farther apart until signs of a clear split begin to emerge. The current leadership will retain control over the party, but there will be some important fallout. Moderate Republicans, already being pushed out, will be forced further into the fringes of the Republican party and beyond. Many will find themselves voting for moderate alternatives in Republican primaries and Democratic candidates in general elections.
That’s the good news. Here are two we need to be concerned about:
- Conservatives will attempt to draw attention away from unpopular and failing policy by focusing on new “crises” and new “enemies.” I expect over the next 18 months to see a sharp rise in xenophobic propaganda from the Republican Noise Machine. Immigrants will be the scapegoats in 2006 and 2008 the way gay Americans were in 2004 (which is not to say Conservatives will pull back their attack on gay rights — sadly there’s still plenty of gas left in that tank.)
- While Republicans may not be able to stop their own bleeding, they can certainly try to attack our flanks. It has long been one of Rove’s strategies to directly attack an opponent’s strengths, and that will continue in 2006 and 2008. Whether Rove retains involvement or not, Conservatives will go after traditional core Democratic supporters. Tops on their list will be African American churches. They will continue their policy of ideological gerrymandering by appealing to this group on the same basis they appealed to Evangelicals. Once again, gays will be figuratively sacrificed to gain votes.
By all accounts 2006 should be a good year for Democratic candidates. We absolutely cannot, however, count on that. The Republican Noise Machine’s track record of sleight of hand politics is far too extensive to ever assume things will follow a set course. They will do everything possible to create new crises to divert our attention while undercutting traditional Democratic support. We cannot let them dodge their fate.