Today is a big day in Iraq. It’s also an interesting day. According to law, the parliament should be dissolved because they failed to either pass a proposed constitution by midnight last night, or vote to pass an extention. Instead, they just decided to negotiate one more day.

Approval of Iraq’s new constitution may end up out of the hands of politicians, after a third deadline for various factions to agree on a draft expired.

Sunni negotiators today said the issue of federalism remained the key sticking point in the process.

Earlier today, after the latest deadline to complete the constitutional draft fell by the wayside, parliamentary speaker Hajim al-Hassani announced a one-day extension in talks on the new constitution – a fourth attempt to win Sunni Arab approval.
Ireland Online

Here are the key sticking points and problems:

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The Shiites dominate the parliament and make up the majority of the population in the southern part of the country. The have put language in the constitution that would allow them to create an autonomous zone (much like the Kurds enjoy in the north).

The Sunni leaders adamantly oppose language in the constitution that could allow the Shiites to create a vast autonomous region in the oil-rich southern part of the country. In the current draft, the constitution says each province may form its own federal region and join with others.
NY Times

There are a variety of reasons why this provision should worry us. Most of the oil in Iraq is in the southern part of the country, much of it near or bordering Kuwait. The other big source of oil in near the city of Kirkuk in the north. The Kurds are trying to fold Kirkuk into their autonomous zone. If Iraq becomes split into three essentially autonomous zones, the central Sunni Arab portion will not have much, if any, oil and will be landlocked as well. It may prove difficult for anyone to govern such a dispossessed and dependent Sunni Arab zone.

But it may not come to that. There is a provision in the constitution that says that it will not be be considered ratified if any three provinces reject it. The Sunni Arab population has a majority of the population in three or four provinces. If they stay unified, the constitution could be rejected. And there is good reason to fear the Sunni Arabs will remain unified:

The other outstanding issue was whether the constitution would contain language banning any remnants or symbols of the Baath Party, which was dominated by Sunnis. The Sunnis are concerned that this may lead to their exclusion from government jobs and that they will be unfairly discriminated against in public life.

Maybe the Shiites can compromise a little on this one today. If the Shiites cannot get an agreement from the Sunnis, they plan to use the constitution they have already agreed to with the Kurds. The vote over the constitution is scheduled for October 15th. If it passes, there are parliamentary elections scheduled for December. If it doesn’t pass we are back to square one, and our ability to draw down our troops will probably be impaired.

At this point, our interests are probably best served by the constitution being passed and elections being successfully held. This will probably result in some things we won’t like. Women’s rights will be curtailed. The most powerful zone, the Shi’a south, will probably be heavily aligned with Iran. And, as I said, the central Sunni Arab zone may prove to be ungovernable. That will have bad implications for Baghdad, and the country as a whole.

However, there is no substitute for the legitimacy that a constitution and elections will provide. It will be clear that we did not control the process or get a result that we desired. That should add an extra measure of legitimacy. If there is any hope for a peaceful future in Iraq and a prompt drawdown of our troops, a ratification of the constitution on October 15th is probably our best bet.

So, today is a big day and Bush seems to understand this:

“This talk about Sunnis rising up, I mean the Sunnis have got to make a choice. Do they want to live in a society that’s free, or do they want to live in violence?” Bush told reporters at a resort in Idaho.
Reuters

The problem is that the Sunnis do not see a happy future under the proposed constitution. Their freedom to vote may be coupled with an alienation from and dependency on the central government. They will not have any obvious source of revenue comparable to the southern and northern oil fields, or the harbors and other major trade routes. And they fear being dictated to by religiously conservative ayotollahs.

Bush seems to understand this too. But there is not a lot he can do about it:

The concern that a deal on the constitution was falling apart appeared to have to prompted Mr. Bush to call Mr. Hakim to urge a (sic) comprise. One Iraqi official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said the Americans, who have already expressed their frustration with the Sunnis, have recently become irritated with what they regard as the stubbornness of the Shiites as well.

“The Americans are very angry that the Shia are not agreeing on this,” the Iraqi official said. “They really want them to make these concessions to the Sunnis to keep them on board.”

“They think that without keeping the Sunnis on board, many things will go wrong, including the security,” the official said.
NY Times

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